Pre-game predictions

[Yayap]

Based on the setup, who do you think will win? Town or Scum?

With 3 kpn and only 19 town, if scum don't target each other, town has 0 chance even if they get 100% correct during the days. It all boils down to the night actions.

I think this game will be similar to FM3 setup wise giving the win to a scum faction of some sort. Funny thing is the faster the scum are all revealed the faster town will loose. Town need scum to remain hidden so that they target each other.

-Current Predictions-
Yayap - Scum win.
Dust - Red mafia win.
Phyr - Cult win.

[Forum Mafia GM]

But which scum?

[Dust]

But which scum?

Red mafia will win. Never orange mafia. It never happens.

Cult? lolno. Cult's been nerfed and now playing to get into the cult is bad play.

[Dust]

In other news, I'M AN ANGLE! FROM HEATHEN!

[Phyr]

Administering seems to be one night only immunity. It isn't clear to me, if dominated players retain their abilities and night chats. If they do, then I think, that with some luck in the beginning Cult has some good chances to win. Especially if they manage to convert some killing roles (Trapper, Illusionist, Tinkerer!, von Helsing). I think it's key for the Cult to recruit one of the rogue vampires early to have a steady flow of information about other players incoming.

My prediction is that either Cult or Town will win, if the Cult doesn't get killed of early. Cult will eat up the Vampires.

OHMIGAWD:
Count Dracula's domination / Inquistors' Lay on Hands (Note: If both target the same citizen, a culted mason will be created.)
If this happens, Cult will rock them all.

If the night actions must be sent in via pm for Masons/Mafia, Cult will have an even easier job to betray the former teammates.

My prediction: Cult it is!
I noticed that I have quite some questions on the mechanics. Can I open a FAQ thread in this sub-forum?

[Dust]

-Current Predictions-
Yayap - Scum win.
Dust - Red mafia win.
Phyr - Cult win.

I'm so gonna be rooting for the red mafia.

[clementine]

Wow so many posts to read already... I'm so behind. I didn't realize this was starting so soon.

Poor Dust!
Also Phyr, you asking 20 billion questions in every game FAQ is why you are adorable!

I hopefully will have more to contribute later...

[Yayap]

Because the results of this game will be based on night actions, right now its a toss up which scum will win since we don't know the composition of each one. Cult seems strong but if you cut off the leader then they usually loose. They'll need to hide their leader in order to pull off a victory. As for the mafias, they both need to eliminate town and hope that the cult doesn't target them at all.

I still wonder what the hidden neutrals are, I'm sure they'll have some sort of impact on this game.

[Dust]

I bet the town will "loose" their hounds on each other and then they'll *lose*.

[clementine]

I think cult has a lot of great potential. Never seen it play out in such a large game, but I'm inclined to think that a cult with members in each of the different factions could be very powerful. It's just a matter of having enough time to spread large enough.

Kind of a toss up who I think could win. Personally I think it might turn out like M-FM VII where the mafia miraculously don't hit each other for the first few nights. However, I'm not completely certain how the cult affects the setup. In the midgame, will everyone band together in eliminating cult? Will cult and town band together in eliminating mafia? I guess I'd bet on mafia to win this one.

[FalseTruth]

I predict a town win. I'd bet on it with real money too.

HOWEVER, I do happen to know who the cult leader is, and I do think if plays it properly and gets lucky, he has the second highest chance.

Yayap's prediction is based on the assumption that mafia/neutral killers/cult will not attack each other. You have to account for all variables, not just the amt of scum there are in the game.

[Ganondorf]

Red mafia will win. Never orange mafia. It never happens.

Cult? lolno. Cult's been nerfed and now playing to get into the cult is bad play.

:D If Dust says it, it is so... next time, please predict a no-win situation where everyone kills each other and only leaves the jester alive....