Threat #1: FM Oops_Ur_Dead

[fm Lysergic]

FM Oops_Ur_Dead has not only found 3 mafia, he believes in his predictions with no hesitation or doubt.
From what I have read during day so far, nothing will convince him he is wrong aside from our dead bodies in the graveyard. He has a single-minded focus that cannot be changed no matter how hard we try to manipulate the situation.

There are a few things I know about FM Oops_Ur_Dead that we should all take into account in determining our actions. I have been taking notes for the past day and this is what I have found.

1) FM Oops_Ur_Dead is Muso(COM).
2) FM Oops_Ur_Dead is a investigative role, likely sheriff.
3) FM Oops_Ur_Dead will very likely prove his role to town tomorrow and clear himself completely.

Conclusion: FM Oops_Ur_Dead is our biggest threat and needs to be dealt with ASAP.

Our Options:
1) We can use the purple (silencing pill) to prevent him from even speaking in day chat. This would completely nullify his strategy AND we wouldn't have to worry about his last will incriminating us.
2) We can kill him. We would have to worry about his last will revealing us and confirming his role. This would depend on the investigation pairings he receives upon death. It's risky, but it has a better optimal payoff.

For now, I think going with 1) is the better option. Less risky, and guaranteed to help us. Discuss.

[fm Fred]

I think the silencing pill is the strongest pill in our arsenal, I am for using it on narks and since yayap has cut down our consort numbers we only have one. If we use it on oops we should kill narks as I see him as a great threat too. He hinted at being an investigation role and may not be onto us yet but has strong logical skills and a leadership position in the town. Day 1 post 109 is where he hints at being an investigative role:



I'm inclined to believe Claw's private message. I received a notice along similar lines and the grammar matches up.
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[fm Fred]

false could you post what has lead you to the conclusion that 1) he is muso and 2) he is an investigative role?

[fm TheJackofSpades]

Our Options:
1) We can use the purple (silencing pill) to prevent him from even speaking in day chat. This would completely nullify his strategy AND we wouldn't have to worry about his last will incriminating us.
2) We can kill him. We would have to worry about his last will revealing us and confirming his role. This would depend on the investigation pairings he receives upon death. It's risky, but it has a better optimal payoff.

For now, I think going with 1) is the better option. Less risky, and guaranteed to help us. Discuss.


The mafioso likely has the ability to hide last wills now, so I'll post mine here.
-last will

Eventually (it may take days), you will realize I have been right about everything. At that point you need to kill the following people:
-Lysergic
-Elixir
-suicidaln00b (he is not a jester)

If I am alive tomorrow, and accuse anybody other than those 3 then I have probably been blackmailed. If I bring forward "evidence" clearing them, then I have been blackmailed.

Good luck.
I have a bad feeling that he is going to be doused aka "Blackmailed". :/

[fm Suicidaln00b]

I have a bad feeling that he is going to be doused aka "Blackmailed". :/

Most likely. But if we silence him, arson will incinerate him. Look at my pm

[fm BlastYoBoots]

Long term the best goal is to level up the hooker asap. I am ok with giving oops a pill, but if we go that path, he will die the following night. I also think that hiding dimwit using boots would be worthwhile.

[fm BlastYoBoots]

Most likely. But if we silence him, arson will incinerate him. Look at my pm

You are dead, every extra day you live is time that helps us. If I were you I would make a sheriff last will. Keep in mind arson burn can happen anytime and sanitizes in a way. I would try to get lynched if anything, thus denying the town a lynch and negating a douse. Just an idea.

[fm BlastYoBoots]

Blackmailer so cool, real stupid we dont have one :(

[fm BlastYoBoots]

Lysergic what info u get?

[fm TheJackofSpades]

Most likely. But if we silence him, arson will incinerate him. Look at my pm

We silence him, you die too. :C
unless he is arson.

[fm Suicidaln00b]

You are dead, every extra day you live is time that helps us. If I were you I would make a sheriff last will. Keep in mind arson burn can happen anytime and sanitizes in a way. I would try to get lynched if anything, thus denying the town a lynch and negating a douse. Just an idea.

Yes I have already said this in the other thread. Lynching me would benefit us the most. Especially if the traitor comes out and lynches me (unless he is a last of a special role, like if he was our last BM.)


Blackmailer so cool, real stupid we dont have one
Agreed, but we can still act like we have one ;)


We silence him, you die too. :C
unless he is arson.
Yup, I expect to die soon anyways. By the ways of the lynch or the arson.
So we could make a plan to silence him, so the arson pulls the trigger and burns us all. Except I will already be in the process of being lynched by the town. So the arson would only get 1 incineration. And we would get a new GF. (well YOU guys would/ unless yayap is nice and revives me cuz of my bad luck :) )
We can also have someone shoot Narks or another threat to deal maximum damage (unless you suspect a spree killer or sk will target him)
Or we could shoot someone we suspect of being arson to confirm our suspicion on him. (he only has 2 armor so we could use this to our benefit)

To sum it up:
Suicidaln00b = dead in 95% (+/- a standard deviation of 5% -- LOL) of what happens. The only way I will survive is if we manage to kill the arson and keep the town off my back.
Oops = plenty of options for this little pain in our side
Traitor = show yourself so we can come up with the best plan for the mafia. I can not do anything to you no matter how you look at it. The town does not trust me for a lynch and I can not have you shot. Plus I would not want to shoot the person to succeed me after my untimely death.

[fm Elixir]

I think we should avoid Oops for the night. If anything happens to him, immediately we will be under watch by the entire town. (we being myself, suicide and lysergic).

What I think should be doing is attempting shit on people who were accusing other people of mafia, and the people being accused. It would be quite obvious, us going after Oops the day after he's listing us.

Oopa doesn't have the trust of town, and Claw being jester doesn't help his case. Him remaining alive after day 1 will further this idea.

I'd go further in depth in to this thought bu I can only sneak away from work for a moment at a time.

[fm TheJackofSpades]

I am the only one under he radar, which is weird and 5 people are going to kill themselves day 2 maybe we will luck out and hit the arson? LOL
by the way we need to Find out EVERYONE who didn't vote for anyone and match them up with the afk list.

[fm TheJackofSpades]

Philie<-silenced
Rumpel
Sumikoko
TheWaaagh
Vornskr
Guardian

AFK?

[fm TheJackofSpades]

Ganondorf
Muso
Narks
Zack
Zane
Admiral
Crimson
Echonian
Landstander
Goremancer
Guardian
Illidan
Kromos
McPwnage
Miles
Philie
Rumpel
TheWaaagh
Vornskr
Kevinpowers- CLAW
Dark.Revenant- CLAW
Elixir- CLAW
BlastYoBoots- CLAW
Capitalier- EVERYONE
Yayap- CLAW
Nick-CLAW
MikeVipe-CLAW/SN
Monster-CLAW
HerrZynisch- CLAW
Deathfire123- CLAW
FalseTruth- CLAW
Fred- CLAW
Oops_ur_dead- SN
Plato- SN
MrSmarter- SN
Auckmid- SN
CptKirk- SN
Goonswarm- SN
Luna- SN
Procyon- SN
Ambient- SN

Red = 1/4 dead
Blue = checkem
purple= worry

[fm Lysergic]

I think we should avoid Oops for the night. If anything happens to him, immediately we will be under watch by the entire town. (we being myself, suicide and lysergic).

What I think should be doing is attempting shit on people who were accusing other people of mafia, and the people being accused. It would be quite obvious, us going after Oops the day after he's listing us.

Oopa doesn't have the trust of town, and Claw being jester doesn't help his case. Him remaining alive after day 1 will further this idea.

I'd go further in depth in to this thought bu I can only sneak away from work for a moment at a time.
I completely agreed with this sentiment up until the point when I figured out who oops was and his true intentions. Initially, I wanted oops to continue trying to run around flailing at us and town refusing to listen to him. The problem with this is that in the event that he chooses to roleclaim Sheriff, accuse Suicidaln00b of mafia, AND is somehow able to convince town that it is a good lynch, we will be in a very bad position. I feel that the risk is too great to avoid visiting him altogether.

Like I said, Oops will likely clear himself as a sheriff and IF town chooses to trust him, we could potentially lose up to 3 members of our team. This is no laughing matter. He needs to be dealt with now, before he has the chance to speak.

[fm TheJackofSpades]

Like I said, Oops will likely clear himself as a sheriff and IF town chooses to trust him, we could potentially lose up to 3 members of our team. This is no laughing matter. He needs to be dealt with now, before he has the chance to speak.

Problem, he already posted last will, and stated if he is dead, silenced or clears the 3 names then the town needs to kill off the 3 listed in his will. He fears I will delete it.

[fm Suicidaln00b]

If he visited me and the arson lit me up like a roman candle, that would be nice. Lol.
Oh and we should have some way to let each other know if we get doused and threatened. I'm not sure if it's necessary since I clearly survived after saying I was being manipulated. That way you guys would've known why I acted so.

Will contribute more thoughts later. I'm on my phone so I'll try to keep up and in when I can.

[fm TheJackofSpades]

If he visited me and the arson lit me up like a roman candle, that would be nice. Lol.
Oh and we should have some way to let each other know if we get doused and threatened. I'm not sure if it's necessary since I clearly survived after saying I was being manipulated. That way you guys would've known why I acted so.

Will contribute more thoughts later. I'm on my phone so I'll try to keep up and in when I can.

I'll say my balls itch.

[fm Suicidaln00b]

I'll say my balls itch.

Classy

[fm TheJackofSpades]

Classy

Well won't say it. It'll be in my sig.

[fm Elixir]

I was trying to type this out all day at work, but never was able to do so, so here's my alternative idea:

I believe we can get the town to lynch Oops. I'll just post the argument here as I would in day chat (a mock draft, of course)


Oops, you repeated over and over again that I was saying 'claw is not mob' because you say I knew he couldn't be. In reality, if anyone looks back, all I said was that he was anti-town.

At one point, you reference your own night results to say that Claw's must have been faked. (quote here)

I contend, that the results you received were indeed investigator results on Claw. This would explain why you wouldn't vote for Claw from the get-go, you knew he was Jester. So instead of saying "town, back off, he's a Jester", you first lie yourself, using the same tactic as Claw but instead you use it to clear him. This obviously doesn't work. You then insists, over and over, that you KNOW that Claw is town, but you never once explain why.

Anyone with a brain knows that claim devoid of ANY information is in fact not grounds to unvote someone.

So while you accuse me of preparing myself for a townie to be lynched, you yourself are prepping yourself for a Jester lynch; a lynch that undoubtedly hurts town more than it does Mafia. You put yourself in a position to gain the trust of town by "proving" yourself by way of... CLAW NOT BEING MAFIA. You're the one that called that, and maybe a few others. But not only did you yourself "claw is not mafia", you then would turn around and say "Elixir knows that Claw isn't Mafia because ELIXIR IS MAFIA!" Except I didn't now that Claw wasn't Mafia, you did.

Because of this, I come to the conclusion that:
Oops invested Claw Night 1 as a Consiglier
Jester was one of Claws possible roles
When Claw failed so hard at PE claiming and then continued to lie, you were sure you had a Jester on your hands.
How best to get as many people to vote the jester as possible? Fake claim to "save" the Jester, get caught, but insist that the Jester is town despite having NO evidence; thus pushing more and more townies to vote for Claw.

Never once did you suggest that Claw might be Jester, instead you insisted he was a townie the entire time, something a fellow Mob would do. And then you set yourself up for any manor of night shot, knowing we won't discover your true role or know for certain who shot you, thus implicating myself and whoever else in your last will.

It is a beautifully constructed ploy, specially given that it was mostly on the fly, but a ploy is exactly what it was.

Of Oops claims Sheriff, and insists that whomever he checked was mob, all that must be done is referencing his post about comparing invest results. We just have to drive it home that it was "clearly a reference to invest results, not a sheriff result."

[fm TheJackofSpades]

I was trying to type this out all day at work, but never was able to do so, so here's my alternative idea:

I believe we can get the town to lynch Oops. I'll just post the argument here as I would in day chat (a mock draft, of course)



Of Oops claims Sheriff, and insists that whomever he checked was mob, all that must be done is referencing his post about comparing invest results. We just have to drive it home that it was "clearly a reference to invest results, not a sheriff result."

If we can get him lynched WITHOUT you putting down the initial vote. You should be in the clear.

[fm Elixir]

I will concede that it's a huge Gambit entirely reliant on town not getting any heavy hits on whoever would launch the assault.

The positive: I don't believe for a second that the thief will be targeting me again tonight. In doing so, he will think that he's figured out that I am Mafioso, and after I present something like this to the town collective, he'll try to discredit me. In doing so, this is what proceeds:


So you're the asshole that turned the BG into a Citizen? Oh, I can't be a citizen? Maybe because you took my last chance at being a PR by taking the gun that the blacksmith gave me the same night you took my only gun. So now you've fucked a town PR twice, turning me into a fucking citizen.

Blacksmith can back me up on that, too. You claim thief, but your actions in disabling a BG on night one make you more valuable to the mafia and any possible SKs....

Once the Blacksmith chimes in and backs that up, my credibility for day 2 is established unless another PR comes out and calls me scum.

[fm Elixir]

Correction: I don't believe for a second that the thief will NOT be targeting me tonight. i.e. the Thief will want another gun and possible Mafioso check.

[fm Elixir]

Furthermore, once the thief is outed, it's dead-time as he could just check me once more and I'd be out for reals.

[fm TheJackofSpades]

Pro! you should be set.

[fm Elixir]

We'll need a consensus as Silencing him is a viable option as well. Both are risky, and anyone the suggests we were involved in the drugging (we being Suicidal, myself or Lysergic) can just say, "Would you really expect mob to NOT target Oops after his conviction yesterday? It's hardly evidence considering he was wrong about Claw being a townie."

[fm Elixir]

They could even be used in conjunction with one another.

Later on, after Phillie reveals he/she was silenced, after there's been plenty of arguing back and forth, devoid of Oops input:

NOW he's conveniently silenced. Not dead, but he can't speak. It's virtually impossible to confirm whether or not anything happened to anyone else last night was a pill effect, so we can't confirm whether or not he's actually silenced while mob are figuring out what the next pill does (thus, it would be advisable to NOT announce what happened to you unless it is vital). It's also a binding tactic because if he defends himself, he would be incriminating himself by then speaking. It'd be genius if not so obvious.

[fm Elixir]

One downside I should mention: Should the ploy work, I become a variable and the fact that I may have become a useless citizen or are a mob playing on town, I become expendable to any intelligent killing town role. If I survive to the next day, it would take a confirmation from a trusted town PR on anyone else that would likely be all that could save me from lynch.

[fm TheJackofSpades]

One downside I should mention: Should the ploy work, I become a variable and the fact that I may have become a useless citizen or are a mob playing on town, I become expendable to any intelligent killing town role. If I survive to the next day, it would take a confirmation from a trusted town PR on anyone else that would likely be all that could save me from lynch.

We have 3 on the radar, somehow I managed to stay under the radar.

[fm Elixir]

We have 3 on the radar, somehow I managed to stay under the radar.

You should do exactly what you've been doing. Short of you getting spotted by a PR, you're in the clear. And you likely won't be spotted for some time because of all the conviction in day chat.

[fm Lysergic]

Can you make a thread with a detailed description of this ploy with all the potential costs and benefits. I also I have an idea up my sleeve, but I am still working out some kinks and issues with it before I post it. I just want to make sure your ploy won't screw up mine, so to say.