S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

[Gyrlander]

Which Witch is Which?

Setup Link (http://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showthread.php/36157-S-FM-Which-Witch-is-Which)

Day One

https://cdna.artstation.com/p/assets/images/images/000/088/836/large/hansel_and_grete_1200l.jpg?1443931147

Player List

1. Magoroth
2. Noz_Bugz
3. OzyWho
4. Distorted
5. Marshmallow Marshall
6. Soviet_Love
7. blinkskater

Graveyard

None


Night 1 / Day 2

Night 2 / Day 3

Night 3 / Day 4


Night 1 will start in...

01:23:00:00


4

[OzyWho]

first

[Ganelon]

G'day.

[OzyWho]

Alright, boys and girls. Can someone teach me hot to play? I never played FM before.
I will tomorrow search for a forum thread that says what players can do and how. Honestly, havent read that yet. Like how to make a night action or update the lw for example.

[Ganelon]

Hmm. Good question

[blinkskater]

You just shitpost day 1

[Ganelon]

Well, not much to say here.

[OzyWho]

I'm already leaning towards lynching Magoroth for not giving a super helpful comment/reply to me.
Teach me or get voted. A simple new rule that has just been added to the game!

[Ganelon]

Night action? Last will? Why do you need those? :P

[OzyWho]

I can't tell you. I don't trust you!

[Ganelon]

I wouldn't trust me either, to be fair.

[Ganelon]

I don't trust them lurkers, they have something to hide, waiting to see which prey they should be snatching...

[OzyWho]

Magoroth, I apologize for my aggressive tone earlier. I was just in too high spirits when the game started. I will try to chill down a bit. And you are right - those filthy lurkers are suspicious.

[Ganelon]

It's alright.

[Ganelon]

I would like to know Blinkskater's stance on things, however. What do you think we should do? Hmm?

[blinkskater]

I have no stance atm we need to hear from everyone and any day 1 lynch would b 100% random

[Marshmallow Marshall]

You just shitpost day 1

:facepalm: hi guys lol.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I have no stance atm we need to hear from everyone and any day 1 lynch would b 100% random

Ok, slow down blink please. This is a 7 players game, and game has started since exactly 43 minutes.

[Ganelon]

Hello, Marshmallow! Welcome to our merry gathering of concerned villagers! Please take a seat! Would you like a drink?:weed:


One mislynch and we're doomed, is that it?

[Marshmallow Marshall]

My stance on D1 lynch: The game is very small, and scums are guaranteed to have a nightkill. We must lynch D1. Wasting days in such a setup is the way to lose. HOWEVER, this does NOT mean we must random lynch. Lynching a town would be catastrophic, because we would instantly be put in a LYLO situation on D2. If we really have no leads at end of day, we'll have to lynch on D2 or die.

Now about you OzyWho, did you read a bit Helz's guide about communication and did you read the post about how to vote unvote see count etc?

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Hello, Marshmallow! Welcome to our merry gathering of concerned villagers! Please take a seat! Would you like a drink?:weed:


One mislynch and we're doomed, is that it?

Nope. Two mislynches to lose. A game starting on MYLO would literally be retarded xD

[Ganelon]

The command to vote is -vote #Player, is it not? Marshmallow Marshall

[Distorted]

My stance on D1 lynch: The game is very small, and scums are guaranteed to have a nightkill. We must lynch D1. Wasting days in such a setup is the way to lose. HOWEVER, this does NOT mean we must random lynch. Lynching a town would be catastrophic, because we would instantly be put in a LYLO situation on D2. If we really have no leads at end of day, we'll have to lynch on D2 or die.

Now about you OzyWho, did you read a bit Helz's guide about communication and did you read the post about how to vote unvote see count etc?


ok that is very contradicting... lol

[Distorted]

D1 is the riskiest of the days to lynch, you saying we have 1 false lynch but yet we have to lynch day 1 (with lowest odds of success) ..

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I have no stance atm we need to hear from everyone and any day 1 lynch would b 100% random

You have played enough games now to know it would not be random. However, your play is very unusual and counter-intuitive to me (not bad though, that's not what I mean) so I will read that as NAI. Note to self: bookmark #16

[Ganelon]

The math:

5 Townies, 2 Witches.
Mislynch D1:

3 Townies, 2 Witches.
We would be at a knife's point if we mislynched the first day. Better not to lynch at all Day 1... unless there's a Grandmaster in the game. In which case we would probably need to Lynch day 1.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

The command to vote is -vote #Player, is it not? Marshmallow Marshall

Not at all :P its [vote ] the player's name here [/vote ] without spaces.

[Ganelon]

Thank you. The trial type is Majority, right?

[Marshmallow Marshall]

ok that is very contradicting... lol

Ok maybe I skipped a part here xD

I meant to say that we must lynch someone today unless we really have no idea. Since we got some new guys here, I wanted to make it obvious that no lynch > random lynch. But I think we should be good enough to form reads on D1 ;)

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Thank you. The trial type is Majority, right?

You may find all the informations you want on the setup.

[Distorted]

I think feeling out whether a lynch or not would be the best decision. making the decision to decide that we are GOING to lynch day 1 within the first hour of the game puts us instantly into the mentality of "we are going to lynch someone today" without feeling anything out.

Our scenarios for lynchings/kills
-D1 lynch (N1 kill) = 5v2
-D1 no lynch (n1 kill) D2 lynch (N2 kill) = 4 = gg
-D1 no lynch (n1 kill) D2 no lynch (N2 kill) = 5 people and 3 days worth of information to decide off of.

So looking at those strategies - option 3 gives us the most information for most likely the most confident lynch, but yet a day 1 lynch could potentially help reveal alignments.
wow this is a no-mercy game lol

[Marshmallow Marshall]

You may find all the informations you want on the setup.

Fuck, it's not there xD

Gyrlander Is lynch standard? (51% votes, non mandatory)

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I think feeling out whether a lynch or not would be the best decision. making the decision to decide that we are GOING to lynch day 1 within the first hour of the game puts us instantly into the mentality of "we are going to lynch someone today" without feeling anything out.

Our scenarios for lynchings/kills
-D1 lynch (N1 kill) = 5v2
-D1 no lynch (n1 kill) D2 lynch (N2 kill) = 4 = gg
-D1 no lynch (n1 kill) D2 no lynch (N2 kill) = 5 people and 3 days worth of information to decide off of.

So looking at those strategies - option 3 gives us the most information for most likely the most confident lynch, but yet a day 1 lynch could potentially help reveal alignments.
wow this is a no-mercy game lol

On a game with many new players, it's a bad idea to let the game go to LYLO before lynching lol. MYLO max.

[Gyrlander]

Fuck, it's not there xD

Gyrlander Is lynch standard? (51% votes, non mandatory)

Affirmative.

[Ganelon]

If anything, we should probably start lynching on the first or second days.
My take on things thus far:

Marshmallow and Blinkskater cannot both be Witches. Marshmallow just accused Blinkskater, so at least one of them is a townie. Then again, WIFOM.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

The math:

5 Townies, 2 Witches.
Mislynch D1:

3 Townies, 2 Witches.
We would be at a knife's point if we mislynched the first day. Better not to lynch at all Day 1... unless there's a Grandmaster in the game. In which case we would probably need to Lynch day 1.

Do not forget the Pyromancer!! If there was one, it would change the game drastically.

Lynch D1 with Pyro: 5-1=4 townies VS 2 witches/5v1
No lynch D1 with Pyro: 5 townies VS 2 witches
Lynch D1 with Grandmaster: X townies VS 2 witches/X townies VS 1 witch
No lynch D1 with GM: X townies VS 2 witches
Lynch D1 with Rational Arcanist: LYLO D2/4v1 D2
No lynch with Rational Arcanist: 4v2 D2

[Distorted]

On a game with many new players, it's a bad idea to let the game go to LYLO before lynching lol. MYLO max.

I just see a scenario that if we mis-lynch here we will have 2 witches calling out false leads.

But, in the setup im not seeing if witches know who eachother are or not, or if they share a night chat.

Gyrlander do witches know each other? and do they have a night chat?

and btw: at the end of ur abbreviations you should type what they mean for the new players, since the terms here are not used on the mod (sc2mafia)

[Marshmallow Marshall]

If anything, we should probably start lynching on the first or second days.
My take on things thus far:

Marshmallow and Blinkskater cannot both be Witches. Marshmallow just accused Blinkskater, so at least one of them is a townie. Then again, WIFOM.

Ehh... Be careful with this kind of statements. It's D1 first hour, we could still be witches misleading everyone. It's too early to say such a thing.

[Distorted]

If anything, we should probably start lynching on the first or second days.
My take on things thus far:

Marshmallow and Blinkskater cannot both be Witches. Marshmallow just accused Blinkskater, so at least one of them is a townie. Then again, WIFOM.

Trust me, evils stage entire fights with eachother on here and almsot get eachother lynched... lol

[Distorted]

oh didnt post my question in green

@gyrlander , do witches know who eachother are? and do they share a night chat?

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I just see a scenario that if we mis-lynch here we will have 2 witches calling out false leads.

But, in the setup im not seeing if witches know who eachother are or not, or if they share a night chat.

Gyrlander do witches know each other? and do they have a night chat?

and btw: at the end of ur abbreviations you should type what they mean for the new players, since the terms here are not used on the mod (sc2mafia)

Which is why I sent everyone to FM guides and have explained how to vote in signups section (apparently some people didn't bother to read it though :() so you're right.

LYLO = Lynch or lose, 3v2/2v1 in this setup.
MYLO = Mislynch and lose, 4v2/3v1 in this setup.
FM = Forum Mafia.
The mod = SC2 -Mafia- arcade game, where you're probably from.
"Playername is at L-#" means that the player will be lynched if # more votes are added on him.

If you got more questions, feel free to ask.

[Ganelon]

Yes, Witches share a night chat.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Magoroth, I apologize for my aggressive tone earlier. I was just in too high spirits when the game started. I will try to chill down a bit. And you are right - those filthy lurkers are suspicious.

Omg calm down guys, you can't say people are lurkers when game has only started since 1 hour!

[Distorted]

Yes, Witches share a night chat.

oh just opened witches roles and it says it right at the top rofl

[Distorted]

soviet_love

[Ganelon]

soviet_love

[Distorted]

unvote

[Marshmallow Marshall]

soviet_love


soviet_love

?! :sheep: :bus: :triad: :cult: :smurf:

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Alright, boys and girls. Can someone teach me hot to play? I never played FM before.
I will tomorrow search for a forum thread that says what players can do and how. Honestly, havent read that yet. Like how to make a night action or update the lw for example.

Just noticed something, potential slip that I will however not tell for now. Bookmark post #4

[Distorted]

soviet_love

If neither of us are Witches, and neither is Soviet, putting him at L-2 means both witches could come on and vote him, thus ending day 1 then blaming 1 of us for starting the chain.
Unless that was the goal?

[Marshmallow Marshall]

If neither of us are Witches, and neither is Soviet, putting him at L-2 means both witches could come on and vote him, thus ending day 1 then blaming 1 of us for starting the chain.
Unless that was the goal?

The hammer would automatically get lynched. However, what the hell was the goal of this? Something weird just happened there :sheep:

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Oh, adding sheeping to the list: to sheep someone/a vote is to vote with someone without giving a reason.

[Noz_Bugz]

Also saying this right now, I'll be talking more. the first game was me watching to see how it's played here. (inb4 i lurk...AGAIN)

[Distorted]

The hammer would automatically get lynched. However, what the hell was the goal of this? Something weird just happened there :sheep:

Looking for reaction. but a game with multiple new people, if the hammer was a new player that throws an entirely new variable into it; especially since auto-lynching the hammer ends the game if he is town.

[Distorted]

Also saying this right now, I'll be talking more. the first game was me watching to see how it's played here. (inb4 i lurk...AGAIN)

im pretty sure the panda in your signature is a killer........

[Noz_Bugz]

im pretty sure the panda in your signature is a killer........

how dar u. DISREPCING DE PANDA

[Soviet_Love]

Hi don't vote me lol I was eating! Yeezus.

Thoughts on a role call Day 1? Worst case scenario if everyone participates we get 3 citizen claims and 4 hunter claims. Will let us narrow it down. Only 2 people have an incentive to lie out of 7.

I suggest this because the numbers are low enough where just 2 or 3 people state roles would have a large effect on the game.

[Distorted]

Going to state this now:

Due to how crucial this game is we need everyone to communicate day 1 - Lurkers or people who do not talk and just delay the game will be my #1 choice for a lynch.

[Distorted]

how crucial the lynches in this game are* lol

[Ganelon]

how crucial the lynches in this game are* lol

And this is why the meta is Lynch Distorted d2 :P (kidding)

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Also saying this right now, I'll be talking more. the first game was me watching to see how it's played here. (inb4 i lurk...AGAIN)

Nice! We'll need everyone's input in order to win this game. As Distorted said, this is a merciless setup.

[Noz_Bugz]

Yeah, one mistake and we are at LyLo w/out lynching scum if they have a nightkill. I personally think we should treat it as if they have a Nightkill

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Hi don't vote me lol I was eating! Yeezus.

Thoughts on a role call Day 1? Worst case scenario if everyone participates we get 3 citizen claims and 4 hunter claims. Will let us narrow it down. Only 2 people have an incentive to lie out of 7.

I suggest this because the numbers are low enough where just 2 or 3 people state roles would have a large effect on the game.

Sadly this is not how FM works... And even if only the scums were lying about their roles, I'd be against this.
There is why: TPRs (Town Power Roles) will probably want to claim Citizen in order to survive at night. You can't be 100% sure townies won't lie about their roles.

But the next this is that a mass rolecall only reveals TPRs in such a setup. I've played a very very very similar setup called Super Basic, 7 players with two TPRs two mafia (one mafioso one consig/consort) and 3 citizens. A massive rolecall was ordered, and all the TPRs (two detectives, I was one :() died. Then our dear host Gyrlander won as scum, even if (s?)he had claimed doctor before. Gyrlander managed to convince players that she had claimed Doctor in order to act as a meat shield, so the real TPRs wouldn't get killed. The game ended on a Mafia win. I don't want to see such a thing again.


So short story: NO MASS ROLE CALL ON DAY ONE.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Yeah, one mistake and we are at LyLo w/out lynching scum if they have a nightkill. I personally think we should treat it as if they have a Nightkill

They have a nightkill, read the setup :P

[Marshmallow Marshall]

how crucial the lynches in this game are* lol

:chickenwings:

[Marshmallow Marshall]

And this is why the meta is Lynch Distorted d2 :P (kidding)

^^ let's get a serious meta note about Distorted though: he is a GREAT scum and will seem very pro-town to everyone as scum. Sorry Distorted, but since The Return of Haloden, I will never ever trust you unless host posts Distorted is the mayor with 3 votes.

[blinkskater]

Sadly this is not how FM works... And even if only the scums were lying about their roles, I'd be against this.
There is why: TPRs (Town Power Roles) will probably want to claim Citizen in order to survive at night. You can't be 100% sure townies won't lie about their roles.

But the next this is that a mass rolecall only reveals TPRs in such a setup. I've played a very very very similar setup called Super Basic, 7 players with two TPRs two mafia (one mafioso one consig/consort) and 3 citizens. A massive rolecall was ordered, and all the TPRs (two detectives, I was one :() died. Then our dear host Gyrlander won as scum, even if (s?)he had claimed doctor before. Gyrlander managed to convince players that she had claimed Doctor in order to act as a meat shield, so the real TPRs wouldn't get killed. The game ended on a Mafia win. I don't want to see such a thing again.


So short story: NO MASS ROLE CALL ON DAY ONE.

Im all for a role claim in this scenario i have nothing to hide im only a mere ctizen

[Gyrlander]

I just see a scenario that if we mis-lynch here we will have 2 witches calling out false leads.

But, in the setup im not seeing if witches know who eachother are or not, or if they share a night chat.

Gyrlander do witches know each other? and do they have a night chat?

and btw: at the end of ur abbreviations you should type what they mean for the new players, since the terms here are not used on the mod (sc2mafia)

Affirmative and Affirmative.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

2 or 4 votes would work too btw ;)

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Im all for a role claim in this scenario i have nothing to hide im only a mere ctizen

FailFish DON'T START THE ROLE CALL PLEASE!! Not yet. On day two, maybe.

[blinkskater]

Also id like to state that in my very humble opinion we dont really need a lynch today,

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Magoroth get your vote off sovietlove please. Just so the day doesn't get ruined by a turbo L-1.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Also id like to state that in my very humble opinion we dont really need a lynch today,

You are stating things but not giving reasons for the statements. Mind to elaborate a little bit?

[Marshmallow Marshall]

By the way, I'll go off for ± 3 hours soon, don't scream lurker alert please :P

[blinkskater]

FailFish DON'T START THE ROLE CALL PLEASE!! Not yet. On day two, maybe.

Still doesnt matter, evils will lie TPRs will lie heck even im probally lieing

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Still doesnt matter, evils will lie TPRs will lie heck even im probally lieing

It just creates more confusion, can we just talk for now please? Don't start messing up with people's minds!

[blinkskater]

You are stating things but not giving reasons for the statements. Mind to elaborate a little bit?
I believe that a Lynch on day one it's completely random based on the fact that we have no night actions to go off of also if witch successfully kills it would be a 4 V 2 which is still in heavy favor of our town

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I believe that a Lynch on day one it's completely random based on the fact that we have no night actions to go off of also if witch successfully kills it would be a 4 V 2 which is still in heavy favor of our town

Hm, actually MYLO is not that bad... Maybe you're right, we should wait.

[blinkskater]

Hm, actually MYLO is not that bad... Maybe you're right, we should wait.indeed but like you or distorted before both witches can just spit completely false leads they too and confuse the s*** out of everybody

[Marshmallow Marshall]

indeed but like you or distorted before both witches can just spit completely false leads they too and confuse the s*** out of everybody

Me and Distorted before both witches? I don't get what that means o.O

[OzyWho]

Here is what I think:

Evils win no matter what IF they make town mislynch on D2.
(Obvious exception is if town lynch an evil on D1)

So as far as I can tell, we have 2 options only:
1. Lynch neither on D1 nor on D2 and hope we remain 3v2 on D3 with a lot of info to work with.
2. We lynch someone on D1 whom half players find evil, other half find him good - making our D2 lynch much easier.

If we don't lynch on D1, then we agree to not lynch on D2 either and hope that only 0-2 townies died before D3.
If we mislynch on day D1, then we lynch on D2 and evil or gg.

Of the two options that I mentioned: 2nd one can be worked around by the evils with mindgames.

I advocate we abstain for D1 and D2. Unless someone can come up with a reason why more than 2 townies could die before D3.
--------------------------

do witches know who eachother are?
I love FM lol. Every post makes me paranoid. Like this question of yours - it makes me wonder if you do that on purpose so others think that you can't possibly be a witch.
I get more and more paranoid during this FM lol
--------------------------
Marshmallow Marshall, I have procrastinated all the reading till this point. I expect myself to have read it all of FM Guides before D1 ends.

[Distorted]

Here is what I think:

Evils win no matter what IF they make town mislynch on D2.
(Obvious exception is if town lynch an evil on D1)

So as far as I can tell, we have 2 options only:
1. Lynch neither on D1 nor on D2 and hope we remain 3v2 on D3 with a lot of info to work with.
2. We lynch someone on D1 whom half players find evil, other half find him good - making our D2 lynch much easier.

If we don't lynch on D1, then we agree to not lynch on D2 either and hope that only 0-2 townies died before D3.
If we mislynch on day D1, then we lynch on D2 and evil or gg.

Of the two options that I mentioned: 2nd one can be worked around by the evils with mindgames.

I advocate we abstain for D1 and D2. Unless someone can come up with a reason why more than 2 townies could die before D3.
--------------------------

I love FM lol. Every post makes me paranoid. Like this question of yours - it makes me wonder if you do that on purpose so others think that you can't possibly be a witch.
I get more and more paranoid during this FM lol
--------------------------
Marshmallow Marshall, I have procrastinated all the reading till this point. I expect myself to have read it all of FM Guides before D1 ends.

+1

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Here is what I think:

Evils win no matter what IF they make town mislynch on D2.
(Obvious exception is if town lynch an evil on D1)

So as far as I can tell, we have 2 options only:
1. Lynch neither on D1 nor on D2 and hope we remain 3v2 on D3 with a lot of info to work with.
2. We lynch someone on D1 whom half players find evil, other half find him good - making our D2 lynch much easier.

If we don't lynch on D1, then we agree to not lynch on D2 either and hope that only 0-2 townies died before D3.
If we mislynch on day D1, then we lynch on D2 and evil or gg.

Of the two options that I mentioned: 2nd one can be worked around by the evils with mindgames.

I advocate we abstain for D1 and D2. Unless someone can come up with a reason why more than 2 townies could die before D3.
--------------------------

I love FM lol. Every post makes me paranoid. Like this question of yours - it makes me wonder if you do that on purpose so others think that you can't possibly be a witch.
I get more and more paranoid during this FM lol
--------------------------
Marshmallow Marshall, I have procrastinated all the reading till this point. I expect myself to have read it all of FM Guides before D1 ends.

Grandmaster. There is also the possibility of Anti-Mage (Vigilante) that can add a death to the count. Plus, I feel like the experienced players are gonna die first (RIP me and Distorted). You're not that right about the D2 MYLO: Pyromancer can't kill N1, and GM might miss a kill. Let's not lynch D1. I did not take what you guys have said in account when I said we had to lynch today.

Also I KNOW FM IS SO FUN XD
It's all good, you seem to already think correctly and you are being good for a new player :D

[Marshmallow Marshall]

+1

Explaining: +1 means adding a "town point" to that guy, so Distorted trusts OzyWho more because of this post. And I agree with him :)

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Ok now going off, have fun guys :) I expect having something interesting to read when I'll be back... and I'll probably have more than I expect ^^

[Soviet_Love]

Sadly this is not how FM works... And even if only the scums were lying about their roles, I'd be against this.
There is why: TPRs (Town Power Roles) will probably want to claim Citizen in order to survive at night. You can't be 100% sure townies won't lie about their roles.

But the next this is that a mass rolecall only reveals TPRs in such a setup. I've played a very very very similar setup called Super Basic, 7 players with two TPRs two mafia (one mafioso one consig/consort) and 3 citizens. A massive rolecall was ordered, and all the TPRs (two detectives, I was one :() died. Then our dear host Gyrlander won as scum, even if (s?)he had claimed doctor before. Gyrlander managed to convince players that she had claimed Doctor in order to act as a meat shield, so the real TPRs wouldn't get killed. The game ended on a Mafia win. I don't want to see such a thing again.


So short story: NO MASS ROLE CALL ON DAY ONE.

The scum claiming town power, and then claiming citizen and saying they're a meat shield is something i hadn't considered. I agree - no mass role call day1.

Well then.. I don't really know what we can do. We are just rando lynching otherwise.

[blinkskater]

Me and Distorted before both witches? I don't get what that means o.O

I made a typo it was supposed to say "like you or distorted said" sorry

[Distorted]

By the way, I'll go off for ± 3 hours soon, don't scream lurker alert please :P

Lurker

[blinkskater]

Lurker

Its probally just minimized o. His phone or something lol

[Distorted]

Its probally just minimized o. His phone or something lol

nah he asked us not to scream it at him =P

[Marshmallow Marshall]

The scum claiming town power, and then claiming citizen and saying they're a meat shield is something i hadn't considered. I agree - no mass role call day1.

Well then.. I don't really know what we can do. We are just rando lynching otherwise.

I have changed my point on D1 lynch. If we let a night pass, we'll get a lot of information about the scum's roles and probably gather more information on players. We'll also get input from everyone (I hope!) before lynching someone. Let's just talk.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Lurker

Lol at least you didn't scream xD

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Wait, THAT'S ALL?! And I'm the only one browsing this thread?!!! Crap... We need more than that, guys! Communication is critical. 5 pages (assuming you have pages of 20 posts) isn't enough :( let's get this started better tomorrow IRL day.

[Ganelon]

I apologize for the inactivity. I only got home about an hour ago. I am going to cancel my vote on Soviet Love in a moment.


unvote

[Distorted]

hmm I think we should still decide someone to lynch. Whether we follow through with that lynch or not will be decided later.

OzyWho you are my strongest town read due to your post. However, it is 1 post and then leaving. anyone can post a good town strategy in 1 post and afk so will want to hear more from you as this day progresses.

[Distorted]

Noz_Bugz would like to see more from you as well and Soviet_Love

Let's start pressure, start getting information.

[Distorted]

noz_bugs

What is your take on what town should do today?

[Distorted]

noz_bugz

mis-spelled name.

[Noz_Bugz]

My opinion is that we shouldn't lynch D1 unless we have a solid lead. One misslynch and we are fucked imo

[Soviet_Love]

Hi I am just posting to post. You say you want to hear more from me but idk what we can do d1 if people don't claim roles... someone in the last game I played (Rumox) did this and I thought it was really helpful.

So far, the only claim I brought out was blink claiming citizen. Then he later claimed he may be lying, and given that he was Arsonist last game and claimed doctor I'm wary about it. But I really don't get why a town would claim a role.

So far:

Hidden Witch
Hidden Witch
Hidden Witch Hunter
Hidden Witch Hunter
Citizen - Blinkskater
Citizen
Citizen

[Ganelon]

Let's just talk things out... discuss them. We can still win if we start lynching tomorrow.

[Distorted]

Let's just talk things out... discuss them. We can still win if we start lynching tomorrow.

its either D1 and D2 we lynch

or just D3.

unvote

[Ganelon]

OzyWho, I can come up with a fairly good reason as to why more than 2 townies could die in 2 days.

Consider the following:

One of the witches is a Grandmaster (hey, it's possible!). If that is so, then we must ensure that none of us ever visit the same player at night.

We can take steps to counter that. However, a Misdirection Witch could force one townie to visit the Grandmaster's target.

Then again, maybe I'm telling you this just so you get paranoid enough to lynch, who knows :P

[Distorted]

OzyWho, I can come up with a fairly good reason as to why more than 2 townies could die in 2 days.

Consider the following:

One of the witches is a Grandmaster (hey, it's possible!). If that is so, then we must ensure that none of us ever visit the same player at night.

We can take steps to counter that. However, a Misdirection Witch could force one townie to visit the Grandmaster's target.

Then again, maybe I'm telling you this just so you get paranoid enough to lynch, who knows :P

well thikning it through - i get most of my information from voting patterns and lynches. So having 2 lynches is more info. but that also comes to we are literally randoming on day 1 with very little info, especially with new players whom we don't know if that lynch is just what they believe should be done? or a Witch taking the opportunity. So a lynch on day 1 isnt the worst, but isnt the best.

The alternative if NOT lynching is we are gunning on us having a detective that catches a witch TONIGHT (the second night on MYLO we wont really trust an invest claim). So, we are relying on an invest investigating some1, confirming them town or witch, TRUSTING that, then lynching either randomly, or the confirmed target from him to confirm him. We are also relying on the Witches not having a second killing role, and there is a little under a 25% chance for that to be the case. So the not lynching is leaving the game to a 25% guaranteed loss pretty much, while the lynching D1 and D2 (if completely random) gives a 70% chance of hitting a witch.

Not lynching: 25% guaranteed loss ----- 75% chance to play the game. out of that if we lynch randomly D3 we will have a 40% chance hitting a witch, but with the 25% loss that leaves the game at 30% chance to win as town if everything was random and no leads come into play.

Lynching: since lynching will be random starting day 1, in this scenario as well there is 0 leads, that leaves the games at a 70% chance to hit a witch on D2. but a 30% chance of loss. (once again all random if no1 has leads or any influence takes place)

[blinkskater]

The only way to get any information on day 1 is if we get a roleclaim from everyone, yes people will lie but and the vote will still be random but we will have people held accountable for their said claimed roles

[blinkskater]

And when someone who claimed say "cit" gets lynched per say and flips cit it will narrow down them other cit claims etc etc

[Ganelon]

Blinkskater Let's start with you, then. What's your role?

[Soviet_Love]

Stop accusing people and forcing roles. I thought we already determined a role call day 1 is a bad idea. MM convinced me that it is bad play.

So, of the Witches, there are 3 roles that are night-kill capable (Pyromancer/Arsonist, Grandmaster/MassMurderer, Rational Arcanist/Godfather). There are 9 possible witch roles.

Odds of 2 killing roles:
0.33*0.33 = 0.09 chance that we have two killing role scum.

Odds of 1 killing role:
(0.33*0.67 + 0.67*0.33) = (0.2211 + 0.2211) = 0.4422 chance that we have one killing role scum.

Odds of 0 killing role:
(0.67*0.67) = 0.4489 chance that we have zero killing role scum.

0.09 + 0.4422 + 0.4489 = 0.9811 (just to double check this roughly equals 1, indicating if i'd used fractions or more decimals it would be closer).

We seem to be operating under the assumption that there is a single killing role. We should tree out the possibilities and discuss what our strategy should be in each of the 3 situations indicated above. (Of course, I recognize that not all killing roles are created equally - an arsonist killing role might lead us to falsely believe we are in the 0 killing role world, when we could be in the 1 or even 2 killing role world). Nonetheless, this should frame our discussion.

TL;DR stop being retards accusing people to reveal their roles and discuss what town's optimal play would be in each situation and then we can discuss how to proceed.

[Soviet_Love]

Everyone thus far has assumed we are in the 1 killing role world, which is a 0.4422 and it's actually more probable than not that we are not in this world. I have been one of the players who has posted the least. This indicates to me that some people who have spoken in support of this understanding of our setup are likely witches. Also, and this is a logical leap but it is currently persuasive to me, this leads me to think that we are either in the 2 killing role game or the 0 killing role game. Both possibilities will lead to interesting gameplay, and I would be curious as to what people's thoughts are on optimal town gameplay if we encounter either of these possibilities.

[blinkskater]

Blinkskater Let's start with you, then. What's your role?

Lol quick get the only guy who claimed a role so far

[Noz_Bugz]

Blinkskater Let's start with you, then. What's your role?

Blink already claimed Cit

[Noz_Bugz]

Also Do the witches if they have no killing role have any ability to kill besides lynching?

[Soviet_Love]

Can some1 please reply to my well-thought out post, these games drive me crazy. There are 4 other players with town roles, plz halp. :(

[Noz_Bugz]

Can some1 please reply to my well-thought out post, these games drive me crazy. There are 4 other players with town roles, plz halp. :(

I think we should work on the killing role number from N1 kills. As right now we are pretty much guessing the amount of killing roles based on percentages. I'm for not role calling D1

[Ganelon]

I'm not in favour of role calling either.

But Blinkskater seems to be, and I would like to know why.

[Gyrlander]

Also Do the witches if they have no killing role have any ability to kill besides lynching?

"The witches both share a night chat and know each others identities. They do not have a factional night kill."

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Hey, I'm back! Going to read, if you got questions for me drop a marshmallow marshall and I'll answer.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

"The witches both share a night chat and know each others identities. They do not have a factional night kill."

Isn't there also "Witches are guaranteed to get a killing role."? Gyrlander

[Marshmallow Marshall]

My opinion is that we shouldn't lynch D1 unless we have a solid lead. One misslynch and we are fucked imo

One mislynch and it's a double MYLO (3v2, lynch scum its 2v1 next day, becomes LYLO). Which is why I'm rather against the D1 lynch now. However, as Distorted said, we should define our main suspect so we don't get to D2 without anything done.

[Soviet_Love]

I think we should work on the killing role number from N1 kills. As right now we are pretty much guessing the amount of killing roles based on percentages. I'm for not role calling D1

Right, clearly we're going to have more information tomorrow. I don't think that's the issue.

If there are 2 night killing roles, then we should not lynch today because then if we are wrong (5/7 chance of being wrong) then they will win and it will be 2-2.

If there is 1 night killing role and we lynch today (and lynch wrong) then there will be 3 town and 2 scum.

If there is 0 night killing rules and we lynch today (and lynch wrong) then there will be 4 town and 2 scum.

Does anybody understand what I'm trying to have us discuss?

[Soviet_Love]

Isn't there also "Witches are guaranteed to get a killing role."? Gyrlander

I don't think we are guaranteed to have a killing role.

[Gyrlander]

Isn't there also "Witches are guaranteed to get a killing role."? Gyrlander

Negative.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Hi I am just posting to post. You say you want to hear more from me but idk what we can do d1 if people don't claim roles... someone in the last game I played (Rumox) did this and I thought it was really helpful.

So far, the only claim I brought out was blink claiming citizen. Then he later claimed he may be lying, and given that he was Arsonist last game and claimed doctor I'm wary about it. But I really don't get why a town would claim a role.

So far:

Hidden Witch
Hidden Witch
Hidden Witch Hunter
Hidden Witch Hunter
Citizen - Blinkskater
Citizen
Citizen

The BIG difference between the last game and this one is the setup. In the last game, TPRs were in super big amount, actually the biggest amount I had ever seen in a FM game. Mass rolecall was the way to win, because losing TPRs really didn't matter, since they were the biggest part of the Town.

Now blink claimed a role, then "disclaimed" it. He gained some scum points for doing so imo. I'd like more input from him. Blinkskater

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I don't think we are guaranteed to have a killing role.

Omg what the hell is that big terrible slip XD EXPLAIN YOURSELF SOVIET!!!

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Negative.

No, affirmative... Post #21 of the setup.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

its either D1 and D2 we lynch

or just D3.

unvote

Why? I thought a D2 lynch would be best option, and then see if lynch D3 or D4.

[Gyrlander]

No, affirmative... Post #21 of the setup.

I won't repeat myself.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

The only way to get any information on day 1 is if we get a roleclaim from everyone, yes people will lie but and the vote will still be random but we will have people held accountable for their said claimed roles

Ok my vote stays on you sir.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I won't repeat myself.

(This post is not directed to the host) Holy crap... Does that mean that witches could have no night kill? I think Gyrlander randomized roles. So if the "always a killing witch" wasn't there... it means that there could not be any nightkill! Which means we can not lynch today without fearing people getting murdered all game long.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Blinkskater Let's start with you, then. What's your role?

Uhm. Why? He already claimed citizen, but then retracted it somehow.

[Ganelon]

Because he's been doing nothing but reading our posts. I find that suspicious, he's not even contributing to the conversation in any way.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Stop accusing people and forcing roles. I thought we already determined a role call day 1 is a bad idea. MM convinced me that it is bad play.

So, of the Witches, there are 3 roles that are night-kill capable (Pyromancer/Arsonist, Grandmaster/MassMurderer, Rational Arcanist/Godfather). There are 9 possible witch roles.

Odds of 2 killing roles:
0.33*0.33 = 0.09 chance that we have two killing role scum.

Odds of 1 killing role:
(0.33*0.67 + 0.67*0.33) = (0.2211 + 0.2211) = 0.4422 chance that we have one killing role scum.

Odds of 0 killing role:
(0.67*0.67) = 0.4489 chance that we have zero killing role scum.

0.09 + 0.4422 + 0.4489 = 0.9811 (just to double check this roughly equals 1, indicating if i'd used fractions or more decimals it would be closer).

We seem to be operating under the assumption that there is a single killing role. We should tree out the possibilities and discuss what our strategy should be in each of the 3 situations indicated above. (Of course, I recognize that not all killing roles are created equally - an arsonist killing role might lead us to falsely believe we are in the 0 killing role world, when we could be in the 1 or even 2 killing role world). Nonetheless, this should frame our discussion.

TL;DR stop being retards accusing people to reveal their roles and discuss what town's optimal play would be in each situation and then we can discuss how to proceed.

+1. If there are two killing roles, GG already game over, we'll all die and have no chance. I don't think host would allow such a thing for balance concerns. Plus, 9% is rather small. 1 killing role or 0 killing roles is most probable, and we should make the discussion oriented on these two possibilities. This is a very very pro-town post imo.

N.B. Grandmaster (MassMurderer) can miss his first spree, and still has to wait a night before spreeing again. It could lead us to think there was 0 killing roles too.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Because he's been doing nothing but reading our posts. I find that suspicious, he's not even contributing to the conversation in any way.

After reading more, I understand your vote and agree to park mine on him. Now, since we got a few new players and that we're putting blink at L-2, I'll make it clear for everyone: ANY HAMMER VOTE ON BLINK WILL BE INSTANTLY LYNCHED TOMORROW.

This is to prevent witches from turbo lynching blink to end a day, and then hide by saying they are new to the game (assuming there is 1 new player and 1 experienced player in the scum team, which seems plausible), and didn't know it was the hammer vote. To see vote count, check top right of page and click on "Vote Count". If you see someone is at L-1, know that a vote on him will make him DIE.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Right, clearly we're going to have more information tomorrow. I don't think that's the issue.

If there are 2 night killing roles, then we should not lynch today because then if we are wrong (5/7 chance of being wrong) then they will win and it will be 2-2.

If there is 1 night killing role and we lynch today (and lynch wrong) then there will be 3 town and 2 scum.

If there is 0 night killing roles and we lynch today (and lynch wrong) then there will be 4 town and 2 scum.

Does anybody understand what I'm trying to have us discuss?

We definetly should wait a day, given what you've said there.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Soviet_Love Even if I townread you for your posts, post #121 makes me suspect you. What did you mean by "[WE] are not guaranteed to get a killing role"?

[Soviet_Love]

Omg what the hell is that big terrible slip XD EXPLAIN YOURSELF SOVIET!!!

I read the setup. It does not say anywhere that we have to have killing roles. And I just explained via a large message the probabilities that we have 2 killing roles, 1 killing role, or 0 killing role.

[Soviet_Love]

Soviet_Love Even if I townread you for your posts, post #121 makes me suspect you. What did you mean by "[WE] are not guaranteed to get a killing role"?

We as in this game you slut

[Soviet_Love]

Soviet_Love Even if I townread you for your posts, post #121 makes me suspect you. What did you mean by "[WE] are not guaranteed to get a killing role"?

Bruh I brought to the town's attention we may not have killing roles. And that we should act differently if there are 0, 1, or 2 killing roles. And that THE MOST LIKELY OPTION IS THAT THERE ARE NO KILLING ROLES. THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY OPTION OF THE THREE.

Don't rag on me for saying "we" stuff like this derails the conversation. I'm trying to get town to tree out our (OUR AS IN IN THE GAME) possible set-ups, and what we (AS IN THE TOWN) should do for optimal gameplay in each situation.

[Soviet_Love]

+1. If there are two killing roles, GG already game over, we'll all die and have no chance. I don't think host would allow such a thing for balance concerns. Plus, 9% is rather small. 1 killing role or 0 killing roles is most probable, and we should make the discussion oriented on these two possibilities. This is a very very pro-town post imo.

N.B. Grandmaster (MassMurderer) can miss his first spree, and still has to wait a night before spreeing again. It could lead us to think there was 0 killing roles too.

Yay! This may the first game we've played together where you're originally more pro-town read on me than scum. :D I like it! Hoepfully we can work together this time around.

I agree in that I think 9% is rather small, but I also didn't think we'd have an arson last game. We should discuss each of them.

Maybe, first, we should think about what is best gameplay if there are 0 killing roles.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Bruh I brought to the town's attention we may not have killing roles. And that we should act differently if there are 0, 1, or 2 killing roles. And that THE MOST LIKELY OPTION IS THAT THERE ARE NO KILLING ROLES. THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY OPTION OF THE THREE.

Don't rag on me for saying "we" stuff like this derails the conversation. I'm trying to get town to tree out our (OUR AS IN IN THE GAME) possible set-ups, and what we (AS IN THE TOWN) should do for optimal gameplay in each situation.
(Replying to the three posts about this topic)

Ok ok all good XD I just wanted to hear that. If you had given some weird and confused reason, I'd have suspected you. Now let's get over this to avoid having a poisoned conversation :)

Can't stay for now though, sorry :(

[Soviet_Love]

So just like an original thought - if there are 0 killing roles, then we're not under direct pressure to finish ot quickly. The only problem is some of them may do things to confuse us.

The non-killing roles are:
(1) Misdirection Witch/Witch
(2) Cyromage/Consort
(3) Visionary/Consigliere
(4) Silencer/Blackmailer
(5) Earthbinder/Architect
(6) Telepath/Judge

(1) A normal witch might confuse the town power roles.
(2) A consort isn't that bad because the target is informed of being roleblocked. I imagine we'll be killing people through lynching generally and not trigger happy vigilantes.
(3) A consig doesn't bother us too much. They will learn who the town power roles are. This is only bad if they also have a killing role who can then take them out.
(4) A blackmailer would be the ideal scenario because then we could get someone who can be confirmed town if they can't speak. So if someone isn't speaking tomorrow, don't immediately assume that they are a lurker and a scum. In fact, we should think of a way for us to signal that we are blackmailed. Maybe being online for an extended period and not posting? Idk.
(5) Architect seems funky. I don't know what to think about this.
(6) Judge. If they ever call court, just VOTE INNOCENT ON WHOEVER IT IS. Very important.

The roles only become intimidating if they are paired with a killing role. If we have 0 killing roles, I think our best bet is to just keep inno-ing people and let the town powers work their magic.

[Soviet_Love]

I guess the big thing with Earthbinder(Architect) is that there is a similar role that is town power. So if someone eventually gives 2 people a private night chat, and then claims Architect later, we should be wary considering that there is a 1/9 chance of Earthbinder (scum architect) and a 1/12 chance of a town power architect.

[Soviet_Love]

I guess the big thing with Earthbinder(Architect) is that there is a similar role that is town power. So if someone eventually gives 2 people a private night chat, and then claims Architect later, we should be wary considering that there is a 1/9 chance of Earthbinder (scum architect) and a 1/12 chance of a town power architect.

1/11, I misread and thought a town power could be a citizen.

[Soviet_Love]

1/11, I misread and thought a town power could be a citizen.

1/10, I didn't realize a follower (mason) can only spawn if there is already a mason leader. So that means there's a 1/9 chance of any given witch role, and a 1/10 role of any given town power role (which excluded citizen and mason).

[blinkskater]

The BIG difference between the last game and this one is the setup. In the last game, TPRs were in super big amount, actually the biggest amount I had ever seen in a FM game. Mass rolecall was the way to win, because losing TPRs really didn't matter, since they were the biggest part of the Town.

Now blink claimed a role, then "disclaimed" it. He gained some scum points for doing so imo. I'd like more input from him. Blinkskater

I never disclaimed it i am citizen

[blinkskater]

Again if we want any reasonable information on day 1 a mass roll claim is the way to go if you want nothing to go off of on day one then don't say a word if you guys want to Lynch me to narrow the citizen pool down then be my guest

[blinkskater]

There's no other way aside from a role claim to even have any suspects at the moment

[blinkskater]

Also by roll clamming on day one anytime powers that claim on day two we could have directly contradicting leads which would give us a witch or a town and by not lynching today odds are our day to Lynch would most likely tell us he guaranteed evil or town

[OzyWho]

well thikning it through - i get most of my information from voting patterns and lynches. So having 2 lynches is more info.

Not lynching: 25% guaranteed loss ----- 75% chance to play the game. out of that if we lynch randomly D3 we will have a 40% chance hitting a witch, but with the 25% loss that leaves the game at 30% chance to win as town if everything was random and no leads come into play.

Lynching: since lynching will be random starting day 1, in this scenario as well there is 0 leads, that leaves the games at a 70% chance to hit a witch on D2. but a 30% chance of loss. (once again all random if no1 has leads or any influence takes place)
I would agree with you that D1 lynch for info is a playable strategy. Especially if we do it based on public role claims as blinkskater said earlier. Lynch info + Role Claim info = we are gambling on finding the correct evil on D2, with, probably, high chance of success.

However, since Soviet_Love pointed out that it's basically 50/50 wether evils will have one or none killers - I am confident that abstaining on D1 is still our best option.

If evils would have a gaurenteed killer, then going for that D1 role claim + lynch info could be worth considering. And even then it would be, probably, better to not D1 lynch at all.


I don't think we are guaranteed to have a killing role.
Who is "we"? You and the other Witch?

----
Now, having said all that. I am confident that any provocation to use VOTE on D1 should be seen as supicious activity. Not even to mention actually using VOTE. "yeh we should not vote {votes someone}" - lol?

[OzyWho]

Obviously, my previous post says nothing against everyone to public role claim.
If we detect something like "either he or he is lying" - we can still go for that D1+D2 lynch.

[OzyWho]

I'm contradicting myself as a Jester. LUL

[Ganelon]

Also by roll clamming on day one anytime powers that claim on day two we could have directly contradicting leads which would give us a witch or a town and by not lynching today odds are our day to Lynch would most likely tell us he guaranteed evil or town

I'm not a grammar nazi, but 'roll clamming'? Were you under some stress when you wrote this post? You seem to have done it in a hurry.

[OzyWho]

Guys, I ask for more opinion and less lurking. I see that this page has been viewed more than 40 times since my last post, yet no comments?
---
Discussion:
Should we all agree to public role claim + lynch on Day1?
We still have time for that. It will give us PLENTY of information to work with on D2.
I am, personally, against that idea. But it is definitely a viable strategy we could go for!
---
Why I ask discussing this topic? Because I feel like it is the ONLY decision we could still make on D1. If not - then there is nothing but speculations for us to discuss on D1 anymore. So, unless 2-3 people want to go through with that idea, see you all in 48 hours.

Cheers.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

So just like an original thought - if there are 0 killing roles, then we're not under direct pressure to finish ot quickly. The only problem is some of them may do things to confuse us.

The non-killing roles are:
(1) Misdirection Witch/Witch
(2) Cyromage/Consort
(3) Visionary/Consigliere
(4) Silencer/Blackmailer
(5) Earthbinder/Architect
(6) Telepath/Judge

(1) A normal witch might confuse the town power roles.
(2) A consort isn't that bad because the target is informed of being roleblocked. I imagine we'll be killing people through lynching generally and not trigger happy vigilantes.
(3) A consig doesn't bother us too much. They will learn who the town power roles are. This is only bad if they also have a killing role who can then take them out.
(4) A blackmailer would be the ideal scenario because then we could get someone who can be confirmed town if they can't speak. So if someone isn't speaking tomorrow, don't immediately assume that they are a lurker and a scum. In fact, we should think of a way for us to signal that we are blackmailed. Maybe being online for an extended period and not posting? Idk.
(5) Architect seems funky. I don't know what to think about this.
(6) Judge. If they ever call court, just VOTE INNOCENT ON WHOEVER IT IS. Very important.

The roles only become intimidating if they are paired with a killing role. If we have 0 killing roles, I think our best bet is to just keep inno-ing people and let the town powers work their magic.

Agreed about the strategy.

However, a silencer is VERY easy to counter since the BM'd CAN say "I am blackmailed." and vote/unvote people. The only bad thing is that someone could lie about being BM'd.
Judge is blind voting, so you can't "vote innocent". The best thing to do is to agree on a guy to lynch the next day in case of court, so we already have the debate done and just lynch a suspect instead of letting scums control votes.

Conclusion: No lynch D1, agree on someone to lynch next day if court happens, and if blackmailed indicate it.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I never disclaimed it i am citizen

You said you were probably lying anyway and tried to cover your play, adding confusion to the game.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

There's no other way aside from a role claim to even have any suspects at the moment

What the hell? How do you think Vanilla FMs, such as Black Flag Nightless, are played? I already explained with an example why mass rolecalling was a bad idea. Did you even read it? You're going down and down in my scum reads atm :( please read everything and provide your thoughts on a strategy by reading the setup. Comment the no-lynch D1 stance most of us have (I think) and give your own stance. Stop asking everyone to say their roles, it's dumb.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Also by roll clamming on day one anytime powers that claim on day two we could have directly contradicting leads which would give us a witch or a town and by not lynching today odds are our day to Lynch would most likely tell us he guaranteed evil or town

The setup is unforgiving, we cannot adopt such a strategy.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I would agree with you that D1 lynch for info is a playable strategy. Especially if we do it based on public role claims as blinkskater said earlier. Lynch info + Role Claim info = we are gambling on finding the correct evil on D2, with, probably, high chance of success.

However, since Soviet_Love pointed out that it's basically 50/50 wether evils will have one or none killers - I am confident that abstaining on D1 is still our best option.

If evils would have a gaurenteed killer, then going for that D1 role claim + lynch info could be worth considering. And even then it would be, probably, better to not D1 lynch at all.


Who is "we"? You and the other Witch?

----
Now, having said all that. I am confident that any provocation to use VOTE on D1 should be seen as supicious activity. Not even to mention actually using VOTE. "yeh we should not vote {votes someone}" - lol?

"we" is everyone apparently... Let's not focus on this, not now. I really think we're gaining info just by people's behaviors D1 without lynching. Then, the potential deaths on N1 will indicate us what to do. Plus, the TPRs might help us in some way.

[Noz_Bugz]

The setup is unforgiving, we cannot adopt such a strategy.

I agree. This setup can be incredibly scumside or townsided (I.E Scum get Grandmaster and the GF thing which I can't remember the name of. Townsided if the scum get no killing roles and somewhat scumsided if they get one killing role)

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Now, having said all that. I am confident that any provocation to use VOTE on D1 should be seen as supicious activity. Not even to mention actually using VOTE. "yeh we should not vote {votes someone}" - lol?

I legit did that ^^ but it's not a vote with intent to lynch. It's a pressure vote. Don't worry, it's a very common thing in FM, and you must not go mad if you get pressure voted. It's just to gain information from a specific player, usually because they are silent/suspicious.

[OzyWho]

Plus, the TPRs might help us in some way.
Sorry, I forgot if it was mentioned before. But what's a TPR?

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Obviously, my previous post says nothing against everyone to public role claim.
If we detect something like "either he or he is lying" - we can still go for that D1+D2 lynch.

Read my reasons on why we must not mass claim on D1. We'll see on D2, but for now it's a terrible idea.

[Noz_Bugz]

My shitty D1 predictions
Soviet will somehow turn out to be scum
The new players will carry town
Blink will claim doc and then flip arso.

thats it for now on the shitty D1 predictions(note all of these are memes and if they all do happen praise me as your god :P)

[OzyWho]

I legit did that ^^ but it's not a vote with intent to lynch. It's a pressure vote. Don't worry, it's a very common thing in FM.
A thing being common doesn't make it right.
Right now your pressure voted target can delay his response just a little bit longer so you, the voter, look more suspicious. And honestly, every minute any vote stays on - the voter looks more and more suspicious to me. Just do me a favor and cancel your vote, will you? It makes me nervous af about you.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Sorry, I forgot if it was mentioned before. But what's a TPR?

I had put in in parentheses (sorry if it's the bad word for that")")... Town Power Role. Aka anything town that's not citizen.

[Ganelon]

A thing being common doesn't make it right.
Right now your pressure voted target can delay his response just a little bit longer so you, the voter, look more suspicious. And honestly, every minute any vote stays on - the voter looks more and more suspicious to me. Just do me a favor and cancel your vote, will you? It makes me nervous af about you.

Interesting post.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

My shitty D1 predictions
Soviet will somehow turn out to be scum
The new players will carry town
Blink will claim doc and then flip arso.

thats it for now on the shitty D1 predictions(note all of these are memes and if they all do happen praise me as your god :P)

Legit xD

[OzyWho]

Read my reasons on why we must not mass claim on D1. We'll see on D2, but for now it's a terrible idea.
Would you mind posting those reasons again? They are far behind, would have to search.

The thing is - in -Mafia-, only the scum are afraid of public role calls.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

A thing being common doesn't make it right.
Right now your pressure voted target can delay his response just a little bit longer so you, the voter, look more suspicious. And honestly, every minute any vote stays on - the voter looks more and more suspicious to me. Just do me a favor and cancel your vote, will you? It makes me nervous af about you.

Then you are wrong and definetly should check previous games to see how it's played. I am not removing my vote. You're right, a common thing doesn't mean a good thing, but this one is one of the basics of FM.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Would you mind posting those reasons again? They are far behind, would have to search.

The thing is - in -Mafia-, only the scum are afraid of public role calls.

False. The most important roles (Veteran, Bodyguard, Bus Driver, Jailor, unrevealed Government) will not reveal unless special circumstances/retardness. Will search for that post. May I suggest you all to go in Settings and find the option to make pages 50 posts long instead of 20 posts long? It makes the reading easier, and helps to find posts.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Sadly this is not how FM works... And even if only the scums were lying about their roles, I'd be against this.
There is why: TPRs (Town Power Roles) will probably want to claim Citizen in order to survive at night. You can't be 100% sure townies won't lie about their roles.

But the next this is that a mass rolecall only reveals TPRs in such a setup. I've played a very very very similar setup called Super Basic, 7 players with two TPRs two mafia (one mafioso one consig/consort) and 3 citizens. A massive rolecall was ordered, and all the TPRs (two detectives, I was one :() died. Then our dear host Gyrlander won as scum, even if (s?)he had claimed doctor before. Gyrlander managed to convince players that she had claimed Doctor in order to act as a meat shield, so the real TPRs wouldn't get killed. The game ended on a Mafia win. I don't want to see such a thing again.


So short story: NO MASS ROLE CALL ON DAY ONE.

Here.

[OzyWho]

Alright. Marshmallow Marshall convinced me that D1 mass role claims is bad idea.
With less TPRs on D2 - it would all come down to some citizens trying to find the evils, who also claim citizens, just by their speaking patterns. That's a losing strategy.

So yeah. See you all in 48 hours. Because D1 lynch is a no-no too.

[blinkskater]

I'm not a grammar nazi, but 'roll clamming'? Were you under some stress when you wrote this post? You seem to have done it in a hurry.

Lmao yup u guessed ir and obviously dont know me very well

[Ganelon]

unvote

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Alright. Marshmallow Marshall convinced me that D1 mass role claims is bad idea.
With less TPRs on D2 - it would all come down to some citizens trying to find the evils, who also claim citizens, just by their speaking patterns. That's a losing strategy.

So yeah. See you all in 48 hours. Because D1 lynch is a no-no too.

WAIT!! Don't go now! We still have 24h before day ends. You really want to waste them? Every hour is important in FM.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Guys, I ask for more opinion and less lurking. I see that this page has been viewed more than 40 times since my last post, yet no comments?
---
Discussion:
Should we all agree to public role claim + lynch on Day1?
We still have time for that. It will give us PLENTY of information to work with on D2.
I am, personally, against that idea. But it is definitely a viable strategy we could go for!
---
Why I ask discussing this topic? Because I feel like it is the ONLY decision we could still make on D1. If not - then there is nothing but speculations for us to discuss on D1 anymore. So, unless 2-3 people want to go through with that idea, see you all in 48 hours.

Cheers.

I think this is solved. However, the "speculations" are useful since it saves us time on next days. D1 is always a little bit slow, but as soon as the action starts, we'll need more than the 48h given to us to find scums, trust me. Scum hunt is often long.

[blinkskater]

Guys, I ask for more opinion and less lurking. I see that this page has been viewed more than 40 times since my last post, yet no comments?
---
Discussion:
Should we all agree to public role claim + lynch on Day1?
We still have time for that. It will give us PLENTY of information to work with on D2.
I am, personally, against that idea. But it is definitely a viable strategy we could go for!
---
Why I ask discussing this topic? Because I feel like it is the ONLY decision we could still make on D1. If not - then there is nothing but speculations for us to discuss on D1 anymore. So, unless 2-3 people want to go through with that idea, see you all in 48 hours.

Cheers.

No lynch but a roll claim imo

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Since blink has let us discuss alone pretty much, now we have come to the conclusion that we must not lynch nor rolecall D1,
However, I'll keep an eye on you.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

No lynch but a roll claim imo

Why? Plus, did you read my post explaining why we must not rolecall D1?

[blinkskater]

Why? Plus, did you read my post explaining why we must not rolecall D1?

Yeah i did and I can see your reasoning for it however if people want actual information from day one then we need to roll claim if not then we don't roll claim fine by me

[Marshmallow Marshall]

The other FM game has started. TO EVERYONE: Make sure you post in the right game!

[blinkskater]

I also love how every game im actually town im the first suspect :D

[OzyWho]

Marshmallow MarshallYou are right, ofc. Since talking and discussing things is all we can do - we should do it as much as possible and milk the best out of it. However, I don't see much to discuss.

Noz_BugzYou have the least amount of posts and you have said almost nothing in them. It's only prediction and confirmations/agreements of what others have said. Everything about you screams EVIL to me.
You have said even less than blinkskater. And that's mighty impressive I have to say, since the only thing he has ever said is the suggestion of mass public role claim D1. It's a bad idea and I would expect better from an experienced player like him, but he had the balls to suggest something he thought was good.

Me and Soviet_Love have very few posts too, yet we have said the most while also being the 2 newest guys here in this game, which is frustrating a bit tbh.

This is probably not a smart idea by me, but I will put it out there:
Distorted and Magoroth, I don't trust you guys a single bit.
Distorted, you should be the most experienced player here. Yet going through your posts and thinking "Is he a good guy? Is he trying to help town winning? Or just posting enough to stay over water?" - well, the answer to that question should be mighty obvious.
Magoroth, I know how you play SC2Maf. You are always the most impactful player, you always take charge and lead town to victory. I consider you the best player I know. Others might be more experienced but you are definetly the most impactful town-player in a positive way. And yet here? Only reason I don't claim that you have said even less than Noz_Bugz is because of your post count.


Having said all that. I realize that there might be ideas like: TPRs remaining silent to not get attention, for example. But I do not believe in that. If you townie - you help town unconditionally.

---
I want everyone to post their top 3 suspects before the day ends!
Why should you? Why should you not is the better question!

[blinkskater]

Lol top 3 suspects based off of what? Your post comes off as very talented but what you all fail to realize is that day 1 based off chat any hunches you have on who was bad and it was good throw it out the window okay

[Noz_Bugz]

Maybe I have nothing to say. I'd like to keep my posts relevant to the discussion and I will not post unless I have something to contribute. More pointless posting would just confuse people most likely

[OzyWho]

Lol top 3 suspects based off of what? Your post comes off as very talented but what you all fail to realize is that day 1 based off chat any hunches you have on who was bad and it was good throw it out the window okay
Marshmallow MarshallClaims the opposite to be true. You are both experienced yet disagree on something so... basic? How did that come about? Because I doubt that one of you is lying.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I also love how every game im actually town im the first suspect :D

I really don't get it. You're protown as scum and anti-town as town. :squirrelrage: we need that xD

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Lol top 3 suspects based off of what? Your post comes off as very talented but what you all fail to realize is that day 1 based off chat any hunches you have on who was bad and it was good throw it out the window okay

He's better than you, and it's his first game. Watch & learn? OzyWho This shall be done after my Heroes of the Storm game.

[blinkskater]

Maybe I have nothing to say. I'd like to keep my posts relevant to the discussion and I will not post unless I have something to contribute. More pointless posting would just confuse people most likely

Agreed, every game ive played with you i have liked your posts very logical and will be trusting you more and more this game

[blinkskater]

Marshmallow MarshallClaims the opposite to be true. You are both experienced yet disagree on something so... basic? How did that come about? Because I doubt that one of you is lying.

Heh we have always disagreed on the basics we just have 2 different mindsets

[blinkskater]

He's better than you, and it's his first game. Watch & learn? OzyWho This shall be done after my Heroes of the Storm game.

Ok bro what ever you say :P

[blinkskater]

I was your highest town read last game and I was far from town lol

[blinkskater]

And every game you scum read me im town so use yah brain here kid

[Distorted]

Fire? Check.
Movie? Check.
BIFOM? (Beer in front of me) Check.

going to catch up now.

[Distorted]

:calix:

[Distorted]

Blinkskater Let's start with you, then. What's your role?

Potential pushing to start a lynch train? He already claimed and seems that was a hard push there - only thinking that because your experience is with the mod, and that is exactly how you get someone lynched in the mod.


I'm not in favour of role calling either.

But Blinkskater seems to be, and I would like to know why.

Not in favor but you pushed for it, with a vote as well.... rather than disputing it you asked him to claim (which he already did to an extent)


Hey, I'm back! Going to read, if you got questions for me drop a marshmallow marshall and I'll answer.

Welcome back.


Because he's been doing nothing but reading our posts. I find that suspicious, he's not even contributing to the conversation in any way.

He has contributed a lot to the conversations - he opened up the whole discussion on role claims to begin with, which has made up about a 3rd, if not more of the total chat so far. This seems like a post to discredit, especially with the previous hard push. It looks like you are attempting to paint blink as a scum, setting up a later lynch.


After reading more, I understand your vote and agree to park mine on him. Now, since we got a few new players and that we're putting blink at L-2, I'll make it clear for everyone: ANY HAMMER VOTE ON BLINK WILL BE INSTANTLY LYNCHED TOMORROW.

This is to prevent witches from turbo lynching blink to end a day, and then hide by saying they are new to the game (assuming there is 1 new player and 1 experienced player in the scum team, which seems plausible), and didn't know it was the hammer vote. To see vote count, check top right of page and click on "Vote Count". If you see someone is at L-1, know that a vote on him will make him DIE.

I am re quoting this just so it is read again. (Hammer vote is the last vote that leads to the lynch of someone)


Soviet_Love Even if I townread you for your posts, post #121 makes me suspect you. What did you mean by "[WE] are not guaranteed to get a killing role"?

I went back and checked his earlier posts, he has used "we" as the reference the whole game, so I don't see it as a slip; but the wording caught me when i first read it to lol, just bad placement =P


Bruh I brought to the town's attention we may not have killing roles. And that we should act differently if there are 0, 1, or 2 killing roles. And that THE MOST LIKELY OPTION IS THAT THERE ARE NO KILLING ROLES. THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY OPTION OF THE THREE.

Don't rag on me for saying "we" stuff like this derails the conversation. I'm trying to get town to tree out our (OUR AS IN IN THE GAME) possible set-ups, and what we (AS IN THE TOWN) should do for optimal gameplay in each situation.

That kind of sounds like you want recognition for sounding "town", almost fishing for a positive indication that you are being town viewed. But as of now I still view you as town, but you are playing much more aggressively than last game, which you were town aligned. Maybe you just have more time though since last game you were pretty on and off.
And throwing in unexpected accusations at wording is actually a positive thing, it can lead to slip ups in wording and contradictions, which is all we have to work with really on a no lynch day 1.


Yay! This may the first game we've played together where you're originally more pro-town read on me than scum. :D I like it! Hoepfully we can work together this time around.

I agree in that I think 9% is rather small, but I also didn't think we'd have an arson last game. We should discuss each of them.

Maybe, first, we should think about what is best gameplay if there are 0 killing roles.

Just tossing this in there for possible buddying incase i refer back to this post later - not thinking anything too much of it now.


(Replying to the three posts about this topic)

Ok ok all good XD I just wanted to hear that. If you had given some weird and confused reason, I'd have suspected you. Now let's get over this to avoid having a poisoned conversation :)

Can't stay for now though, sorry :(

I think it would be harder to come up with a weird and confusing answer to that...lol try and think of 1 yourself =P


Again if we want any reasonable information on day 1 a mass roll claim is the way to go if you want nothing to go off of on day one then don't say a word if you guys want to Lynch me to narrow the citizen pool down then be my guest

This is a make it or break-it strategy here, almost like a go for broke thing. Yes, we have the potential for a huge amount of information day 1, but unfortunately with so few people and so little room for mistakes, and only 2 TPR roles, if 1 of them is a sheriff, and there is no protect....well that really screws us - in a case like that i would really HOPE the sheriff would lie about his role and claim citizen so he can see day 2 and confirm a town. Not much wiggle room in this setup.


I would agree with you that D1 lynch for info is a playable strategy. Especially if we do it based on public role claims as blinkskater said earlier. Lynch info + Role Claim info = we are gambling on finding the correct evil on D2, with, probably, high chance of success.

However, since Soviet_Love pointed out that it's basically 50/50 wether evils will have one or none killers - I am confident that abstaining on D1 is still our best option.

If evils would have a gaurenteed killer, then going for that D1 role claim + lynch info could be worth considering. And even then it would be, probably, better to not D1 lynch at all.


Who is "we"? You and the other Witch?

----
Now, having said all that. I am confident that any provocation to use VOTE on D1 should be seen as supicious activity. Not even to mention actually using VOTE. "yeh we should not vote {votes someone}" - lol?

no. just no to that highlighted red part. Voting is INCREDIBLY valueble. Let's say that blink got to L-1 and all of a sudden Soviet stood up for him pushing hard that he does not think blink is scum - that right there gives investigatives a possible "team" to go for. On the contrary, if everyone here understands "hammer" voting - everyone has responded and respected the no lynch part of day 1 - so if some1 hammers then we have a solid person to invest and lynch the next day. in FM games that have 14-15 people, it is not uncommon to still only have 1-3 TPR roles, so voting becomes very very important, as well as voting patterns - who stands up for who ect.

A vote without an intent to lynch (pressure vote) is a day time invest role in itself.


I'm contradicting myself as a Jester. LUL

Possibly feeling like you revealed too much info and outted something? so posted this as a "humorous cover". I didn't really find your posts contradictory, but rather stating strategies. Odd you were nervous about them. And it is also curious why you are not concerned or questioning Magoroth about him having his vote on blink as well? Just blink? Almost sounds like 2 people are painting blink as scum right now for a potential future/first lynch.


I'm not a grammar nazi, but 'roll clamming'? Were you under some stress when you wrote this post? You seem to have done it in a hurry.

.................................................. ..moving on.




A thing being common doesn't make it right.
Right now your pressure voted target can delay his response just a little bit longer so you, the voter, look more suspicious. And honestly, every minute any vote stays on - the voter looks more and more suspicious to me. Just do me a favor and cancel your vote, will you? It makes me nervous af about you.

This is the purpose of pressure voting.. why is a vote on blink making you nervous? And it is also curious why you are not concerned or questioning Magoroth about him having his vote on blink as well? Just blink? Almost sounds like 2 people are painting blink as scum right now for a potential future/first lynch.



Interesting post.

I wasnt the only 1 who noticed it then.




unvote

Once Ozy states he is convinced D1 lynch is a bad idea, this flies off blink without reasoning? what happened?





Marshmallow MarshallYou are right, ofc. Since talking and discussing things is all we can do - we should do it as much as possible and milk the best out of it. However, I don't see much to discuss.

Noz_BugzYou have the least amount of posts and you have said almost nothing in them. It's only prediction and confirmations/agreements of what others have said. Everything about you screams EVIL to me.
You have said even less than blinkskater. And that's mighty impressive I have to say, since the only thing he has ever said is the suggestion of mass public role claim D1. It's a bad idea and I would expect better from an experienced player like him, but he had the balls to suggest something he thought was good.

Me and Soviet_Love have very few posts too, yet we have said the most while also being the 2 newest guys here in this game, which is frustrating a bit tbh.

This is probably not a smart idea by me, but I will put it out there:
Distorted and Magoroth, I don't trust you guys a single bit.
Distorted, you should be the most experienced player here. Yet going through your posts and thinking "Is he a good guy? Is he trying to help town winning? Or just posting enough to stay over water?" - well, the answer to that question should be mighty obvious.
Magoroth, I know how you play SC2Maf. You are always the most impactful player, you always take charge and lead town to victory. I consider you the best player I know. Others might be more experienced but you are definetly the most impactful town-player in a positive way. And yet here? Only reason I don't claim that you have said even less than Noz_Bugz is because of your post count.


Having said all that. I realize that there might be ideas like: TPRs remaining silent to not get attention, for example. But I do not believe in that. If you townie - you help town unconditionally.

---
I want everyone to post their top 3 suspects before the day ends!
Why should you? Why should you not is the better question!

This is my 4th Forum Mafia game =P and blinks 5th. so no, we are not too experienced here yet. MM is the experienced one, so take his advice and listen to the tips he gives.


I was your highest town read last game and I was far from town lol

fking MVP last game - killed it, literally! lol

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ok - so what I think the best strategy would be is to no-lynch today. It seems pressure voting is being met with resistance AND it has been completely outted that all votes are pretty much meaningless today, making pressure voting worthless anyways since the pressure from the vote is gone......

* If there is 2 kills tomorrow - we role claim because we are fked and going for broke at that point; pretty much RIP.
* If there is 0 kills tomorrow - we role claim because that would either force the possible arson to start burning or give a clear indication that they do not have control of their kills (such as MM) meaning the TPRs can just not announce who they are visiting and keep safe.
*If there is 1 kill - we work with what the flip is, and continue from there.

In all 3 scenarios though I see lynching on day 2 to be necessary (unless there is 2 jailor claims ect + other TPR claims so jailors can jail eachother n such to prove)

[Distorted]

-I am putting Magoroth as my highest scum-read right now just because of the blue messages highlighted in my previous post. It really looks like he is painting blink as a scum, especially saying he has not contributed.

-MM I am still slighlty back and fourth on reading through
-Ozy I am back and fourth on. I know he is a Magoroth follower, but it seems he put some effort into painting blink as a scum as well (almost seems like they "teamed up" on him to set something up for tomorrow).

-Blink I have as a town lean because MM thinks he is a scum lean.
-Noz_bugz I have as a town lean because he wasn't pressured into putting up random shit posts or try to change how he was acting when put under pressure.

-Still trying to get a feel for Soviet.

[Distorted]

He's better than you, and it's his first game. Watch & learn? OzyWho This shall be done after my Heroes of the Storm game.

how longs a game of heros of the storm?

[blinkskater]

-I am putting Magoroth as my highest scum-read right now just because of the blue messages highlighted in my previous post. It really looks like he is painting blink as a scum, especially saying he has not contributed.

-MM I am still slighlty back and fourth on reading through
-Ozy I am back and fourth on. I know he is a Magoroth follower, but it seems he put some effort into painting blink as a scum as well (almost seems like they "teamed up" on him to set something up for tomorrow).

-Blink I have as a town lean because MM thinks he is a scum lean.
-Noz_bugz I have as a town lean because he wasn't pressured into putting up random shit posts or try to change how he was acting when put under pressure.

-Still trying to get a feel for Soviet.

Im reading you as town this game

[blinkskater]

Also, your large post there was highly informative/relevant and in my opinion spot on everything you said was backed up with logical facts i now trust you above anyone else

[Marshmallow Marshall]

how longs a game of heros of the storm?

xD ok I might have got some internet problems... Sorry xD

OzyWho

:town:

OzyWho (hey it's you!) for his helpful posts. I feel like he's really trying to make the game move on with nice strategies. I also think a scum wouldn't want to "see you in 48h", since they'd have lynches to setup for next days.

Soviet_Love, for the math post about number of killing roles. The "we" still tilted me, but I don't want to start a drama about it :p

Distorted, in a 55/45 town lean, where I'm unsure about him. He knows most players' meta here, and I had the weird feeling he wanted to be under my radars at the start of the game. However, he seems to be scumhunting honestly, and I cannot correctly read him for now.

:neutral: Blinkskater, on the pure 50/50 neutral read. Can't read this slot until D2, he promises contributions and argumentation tomorrow but we can't see it yet. However, I cannot scumread him for doing what he says. Leading me to think that is scummy in itself, but again it could just be an accidental thing.

Magoroth sounds like an agenda guy to me, he's putting more confusion in the game and looks like someone painting targets for next days. He seems to understand how next days lynches will be critical, and I think he's too happy to see me getting on blinkskater. Scummy, but need more information to say I'd want his head on other days.

Noz_Bugz is my highest scum read, even if I wouldn't want his head yet. He literally shitposted all game. This, taken alone, is not a reason to scumread someone. However, one of his first posts were "Last game was me watching how it was played here, now I'll post more and be more active". I saw exactly the opposite. He seems too... careful about his words. And after taking a look at the thread, I saw there were no interactions between Magoroth and Noz_Bugz.

:scum:


So, to answer Ozy's question, my scum reads are Magoroth, Noz_Bugz and... blinkskater? Or Distorted? I actually have only two scum reads, others are unsure. Plus, the scum reads aren't 100%, since it's only D1 and the game is filled with new players.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Also, your large post there was highly informative/relevant and in my opinion spot on everything you said was backed up with logical facts i now trust you above anyone else

I'm tempted to say that too. Sadly, Distorted has proven great scum abilities in a previous game, and I won't trust him for that post because he had similar stuff the game he was scum. Reference: The Return of Haloden

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I won't quote your wallpost, Distorted, but the part about SL wanting to seem town is also what I had thought in his first game. I think he plays like this. However, combined to the "we" including witches, I'd say to just keep an eye on him. He's still a town read for me.

[blinkskater]

After reading posys id also like to think MM is a strong town read for myself

[Ganelon]

I apologise. I am not posting too much because I am unfamiliar with this type of game. I also have a relatively short attention span, so that goes there...

Marshmallow Marshall, I agree with your assessment of Noz_Bugz. I'm going to read this thread for the time being, see what I can prowl out of everyone's comments.

[Ganelon]

Ok. Let's assume the following:

Marshmallow is a witch and trying to mislead the town into not lynching.



The problems with this thought pattern:

As it has already been explained by several others, it would be in the witches' advantage to cause a mislynch. Marshmallow Marshall is strongly opposed to the idea of a lynch on the first day, and has, in fact, urged us not to be voting people up. This however could be a witch trying to seem pro-town; if so he should very soon find a reason to cause us to lynch someone, either now or on the second day. Thus far, Marshmallow Marshall has been acting incredibly pro-town, so he is likely not a witch.

Marshmallow Marshall, don't be saying stuff like ''I expect to die the first night.'' Scum could take advantage of that statement and frame you by keeping you alive. If there is a protective role in this game, I think you should either be defending Marshmallow or one of the he has not accused.

Noz_Bugz:

Player has been shitposting constantly.

If the player is a witch, then:

''Soviet Love will turn out to be a witch"
"Blink will flip arson''
''New players will carry town''

Is one of the new players a scum? And that second statement is extremely interesting. Why Arsonist and not Grand Master, for instance? And, what I find the most suspicious is your laid-back attitude.
Noz_Bugz:

I am advocating voting this man up if blind voting is called.
IF he flips witch, then:

''Soviet Love will somehow turn out to be a witch"
What is this statement? Are you trying to rescue him by framing him? Are you saying we should vote him up?

Notice how ''new players'' isn't a player, but, rather, a group of people?
They're the only ones you haven't named. Why is that?

You, sir, have my vote. Please, explain yourself.


Noz_Bugz

[Ganelon]

Marshmallow Marshall, I agree, my refusal to act and my jump to conclusions did seem like an attempt to manipulate you; I apologise profusely because such was not my intention.

[Ganelon]

I'm going to read Distorted's posts right now.

[OzyWho]

Distorted, you should be the most experienced player here. Yet going through your posts and thinking "Is he a good guy? Is he trying to help town winning? Or just posting enough to stay over water?" - well, the answer to that question should be mighty obvious.

When I posted that, I was posting it with the hopes that Distorted would go full panic mode in response if I was on to something.

However, I will let that, semi-expected, post from Distorted give a pass from being a scum read just because he brought Marshmallow Marshall to my attention. As i was completely blind to MM - him and Soviet_Love were the only ones I was sure about not being evil. Kudos to Distorted for making me more open minded about him.

But here comes the fun part. I feel like there is something here but I just don't know what yet. Why did Distorted feel the need to paint blinkskater as the victim that is being targetted by the scummy MM and Ozy? As far as I could tell - I was commenting on what and how much everyone was posting and from the 4 players that I painted in a negative picture, blinks picture was the cleanest one. Whilst MM was questioning blinks decision to ask for mass role claims, which was already discussed by then to be bad. Is Distorted overprotecting blink? Because it felt unncessary.

I don't think by any means that possible evils could be both Blink+Distorted, because first of all - that would mean I give a pass to both: Magoroth and Noz_Bugz, which I can't. One of them has to be evil for sure. I'm leaning more towards Distorted distracting Town from one of them.

I know I'm contradicting myself about Distorted in this post, but it's because I respond to a very very large post of his.

[Ganelon]

(assuming there is 1 new player and 1 experienced player in the scum team, which seems plausible

This statement and Noz_Bugz's prediction that 'new players will carry town' fit so well together, somehow.

[Ganelon]

I rescind my statement.

I grow more paranoid with each post, haha.

[Ganelon]

Speaking from my own perspective, knowing that I am town, I know that if either I or Noz_Bugz is evil, then Noz_Bugz it is. Also, why are you letting Blinkskater go so easily, Marshmallow Marshall?

[Ganelon]

One thing to keep in mind is that a scummy player would be generally unwilling to directly attack someone else... and nearly everyone in the game has, to some extent, attacked someone. The only two players who haven't attacked someone are Noz_Bugz and Blinkskater. Apathy? Not a good trait to have in a town player.

Then again, Distorted always leads town as the neutral evil, so try not to put too much faith in what I just said. Take it with a grain of salt.
Distorted, I find you to be perhaps the second most suspicious player, after Noz_Bugz, or perhaps the third if Blinkskater is also taken into account.

[Ganelon]

Then again, I suppose you could take the sudden change in my behaviour as proof that I am trying to get you guys to mislynch, having grown desperate that I am now on the radar and that my previous attempt to get Blinkskater/Soviet Love lynched failed.

However, if I were scum, then I would obviously not be trying so hard for Blinkskater if he were indeed scum. So he would have to be a town player. And if he were to flip townie, I would, according to Marshmallow Marshall 's statement, be INSTANTLY LYNCHED THE NEXT DAY.
It would be quite stupid of to me to go accusing players at random like this. No, if I were scum, I would be trying to convince you all not to Lynch, JUST so I could be given town credit, without actually contributing anything. Which is what Blinkskater's been doing thus far.

[Ganelon]

OzyWho, supposing that Marshmallow Marshall is a townie, then you have to take into account Distorted's seeding the sliver of mistrust into your view of him. He has been the most pro-town player in this town... which, could, actually, be indicative of scum. Still, I find him to be the least likely player to be a scum, in which case Distorted's rather... I don't know, very fine, slight accusation would seem quite suspicious.

[Ganelon]

If more than two people vote up Noz_Bugz today, I will change my vote to the third person, regardless of who that person is.

[Ganelon]

Gyrlander, are PMs allowed?

[Ganelon]

In any case, Blinkskater might actually be town, he reads as more of an inactive townie than a true scum.

[Ganelon]

Just noticed something, potential slip that I will however not tell for now. Bookmark post #4

What slip? Care to elaborate? Since OzyWho is pretty much, in my eyes, the only confirmed townie in this setup, I would like to hear what slip it is that you noted.

Marshmallow Marshall

[Gyrlander]

Gyrlander, are PMs allowed?

PM's are not allowed (and in the 95% of the rest of setups). It is considered OGC.

[Gyrlander]

Magoroth Also, editing posts is not allowed under any circumstances. If you made a grammatical error just type a new post.

[Distorted]

Ok. Let's assume the following:

Marshmallow is a witch and trying to mislead the town into not lynching.



The problems with this thought pattern:

As it has already been explained by several others, it would be in the witches' advantage to cause a mislynch. Marshmallow Marshall is strongly opposed to the idea of a lynch on the first day, and has, in fact, urged us not to be voting people up. This however could be a witch trying to seem pro-town; if so he should very soon find a reason to cause us to lynch someone, either now or on the second day. Thus far, Marshmallow Marshall has been acting incredibly pro-town, so he is likely not a witch.

Marshmallow Marshall, don't be saying stuff like ''I expect to die the first night.'' Scum could take advantage of that statement and frame you by keeping you alive. If there is a protective role in this game, I think you should either be defending Marshmallow or one of the he has not accused.

Noz_Bugz:

Player has been shitposting constantly.

If the player is a witch, then:

''Soviet Love will turn out to be a witch"
"Blink will flip arson''
''New players will carry town''

Is one of the new players a scum? And that second statement is extremely interesting. Why Arsonist and not Grand Master, for instance? And, what I find the most suspicious is your laid-back attitude.
Noz_Bugz:

I am advocating voting this man up if blind voting is called.
IF he flips witch, then:

''Soviet Love will somehow turn out to be a witch"
What is this statement? Are you trying to rescue him by framing him? Are you saying we should vote him up?

Notice how ''new players'' isn't a player, but, rather, a group of people?
They're the only ones you haven't named. Why is that?

You, sir, have my vote. Please, explain yourself.


Noz_Bugz

These were all comments related to last game. Blink was the strongest town read and he turned out to be Arsonist and won the game with it - was kind of an inside troll =P





When I posted that, I was posting it with the hopes that Distorted would go full panic mode in response if I was on to something.

However, I will let that, semi-expected, post from Distorted give a pass from being a scum read just because he brought Marshmallow Marshall to my attention. As i was completely blind to MM - him and Soviet_Love were the only ones I was sure about not being evil. Kudos to Distorted for making me more open minded about him.

But here comes the fun part. I feel like there is something here but I just don't know what yet. Why did Distorted feel the need to paint blinkskater as the victim that is being targetted by the scummy MM and Ozy? As far as I could tell - I was commenting on what and how much everyone was posting and from the 4 players that I painted in a negative picture, blinks picture was the cleanest one. Whilst MM was questioning blinks decision to ask for mass role claims, which was already discussed by then to be bad. Is Distorted overprotecting blink? Because it felt unncessary.

I don't think by any means that possible evils could be both Blink+Distorted, because first of all - that would mean I give a pass to both: Magoroth and Noz_Bugz, which I can't. One of them has to be evil for sure. I'm leaning more towards Distorted distracting Town from one of them.

I know I'm contradicting myself about Distorted in this post, but it's because I respond to a very very large post of his.

no, I think Magoroth was targetting blink. The posts i made in my wall post are comments on the quote ABOVE it - read my blue text, then the quote ABOVE the blue text.





Then again, I suppose you could take the sudden change in my behaviour as proof that I am trying to get you guys to mislynch, having grown desperate that I am now on the radar and that my previous attempt to get Blinkskater/Soviet Love lynched failed.

However, if I were scum, then I would obviously not be trying so hard for Blinkskater if he were indeed scum. So he would have to be a town player. And if he were to flip townie, I would, according to Marshmallow Marshall 's statement, be INSTANTLY LYNCHED THE NEXT DAY.
It would be quite stupid of to me to go accusing players at random like this. No, if I were scum, I would be trying to convince you all not to Lynch, JUST so I could be given town credit, without actually contributing anything. Which is what Blinkskater's been doing thus far.

This is a really interesting post...could be outting your exact train of thought AND it shows your votes on blink and soviet were actually attempts to lynch, and not pressure votes.




In any case, Blinkskater might actually be town, he reads as more of an inactive townie than a true scum.

Nothing has changed in blinks posts.... from the string of posts panic does seem to be part of the theme

[Distorted]

Why Ozy and Magoroth are turning my wall post into accusing MM is beyond me. Can you explain where that train of thought is coming from? examples from it targetting MM?

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Wtf 7 mentions?! Please don't abuse, and Magoroth don't edit your posts, it's forbidden.

[Ganelon]

Oh my god I mentioned you 7 times sorry :( I will not do that again in the future

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I apologise. I am not posting too much because I am unfamiliar with this type of game. I also have a relatively short attention span, so that goes there...

Marshmallow Marshall, I agree with your assessment of Noz_Bugz. I'm going to read this thread for the time being, see what I can prowl out of everyone's comments.
Ok, just make sure you contribute enough and don't fear your words too much. And for god's sake, stop editing every post, I'm pretty sure it was typo for the biggest part but you can't do that, it's considered as cheating.

Ok. Let's assume the following:

Marshmallow is a witch and trying to mislead the town into not lynching.



The problems with this thought pattern:

As it has already been explained by several others, it would be in the witches' advantage to cause a mislynch. Marshmallow Marshall is strongly opposed to the idea of a lynch on the first day, and has, in fact, urged us not to be voting people up. This however could be a witch trying to seem pro-town; if so he should very soon find a reason to cause us to lynch someone, either now or on the second day. Thus far, Marshmallow Marshall has been acting incredibly pro-town, so he is likely not a witch.

Marshmallow Marshall, don't be saying stuff like ''I expect to die the first night.'' Scum could take advantage of that statement and frame you by keeping you alive. If there is a protective role in this game, I think you should either be defending Marshmallow or one of the he has not accused.

Noz_Bugz:

Player has been shitposting constantly.

If the player is a witch, then:

''Soviet Love will turn out to be a witch"
"Blink will flip arson''
''New players will carry town''

Is one of the new players a scum? And that second statement is extremely interesting. Why Arsonist and not Grand Master, for instance? And, what I find the most suspicious is your laid-back attitude.
Noz_Bugz:

I am advocating voting this man up if blind voting is called.
IF he flips witch, then:

''Soviet Love will somehow turn out to be a witch"
What is this statement? Are you trying to rescue him by framing him? Are you saying we should vote him up?

Notice how ''new players'' isn't a player, but, rather, a group of people?
They're the only ones you haven't named. Why is that?

You, sir, have my vote. Please, explain yourself.


Noz_Bugz

Could you please explain the reason of this? It looks like you're setting up my lynch for later, but then you say I'm probably innocent.

Well, true, but scum might also kill me... or not because a potential protective, or to frame me, as you said. Don't worry, I've thought about it and it's probably going to happen anyway.


Then comes the case against Noz_Bugz. You're bringing something to my attention: his shitpost about predictions. This could be an attempt to communicate with the other witch (assuming noz is witch of course) to give them indications on who to vote, or things like that. He mentioned that the stuff there was supposed to be memes, but looking at it, I see only "Blink will flip arson" as a meme (last game, blink was Arsonist and won because he was great) as one. The others are weird. I agree on voting this man if blind voting is called tomorrow.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Oh my god I mentioned you 7 times sorry :( I will not do that again in the future

Lol no problems at least you posted stuff, reading through it atm xD just don't SPAM the mentions, I really thought I had done something wrong when I logged in tbh :p

[Marshmallow Marshall]

When I posted that, I was posting it with the hopes that Distorted would go full panic mode in response if I was on to something.

However, I will let that, semi-expected, post from Distorted give a pass from being a scum read just because he brought Marshmallow Marshall to my attention. As i was completely blind to MM - him and Soviet_Love were the only ones I was sure about not being evil. Kudos to Distorted for making me more open minded about him.

But here comes the fun part. I feel like there is something here but I just don't know what yet. Why did Distorted feel the need to paint blinkskater as the victim that is being targetted by the scummy MM and Ozy? As far as I could tell - I was commenting on what and how much everyone was posting and from the 4 players that I painted in a negative picture, blinks picture was the cleanest one. Whilst MM was questioning blinks decision to ask for mass role claims, which was already discussed by then to be bad. Is Distorted overprotecting blink? Because it felt unncessary.

I don't think by any means that possible evils could be both Blink+Distorted, because first of all - that would mean I give a pass to both: Magoroth and Noz_Bugz, which I can't. One of them has to be evil for sure. I'm leaning more towards Distorted distracting Town from one of them.

I know I'm contradicting myself about Distorted in this post, but it's because I respond to a very very large post of his.

He wouldn't go on panic, not on D1.

Okay? First: how does that give a free pass to the post??? Scumplay 101: accuse other people to avoid getting accused. Second: would you be twisting Distorted's post into a suspicion of me...? Please quote the part where he says I'm suspicious or something like that, I didn't see it.

Well I think that's the meta part about Distorted/blinkskater. They're friends. Also, Distorted knows I'm not the best at reading blink... look at his bullshit read saying "I read blink as town because MM reads him as scum". Btw remember all lists of reads, they will probably be useful later in the game.

I don't think Distorted was distracting anyone from the potential scums, because blink was already under the spotlight. Not Magoroth nor Noz_Bugz. His wall post even accused Magoroth (I think, will re-read it) slightly.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

What slip? Care to elaborate? Since OzyWho is pretty much, in my eyes, the only confirmed townie in this setup, I would like to hear what slip it is that you noted.

Marshmallow Marshall

It will be done on Day 2. If I was to die N1, it'll be in my last will for you to see it. I have reasons to not reveal it. Sometimes, it's better to not give information because scums could use it to their advantage.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Speaking from my own perspective, knowing that I am town, I know that if either I or Noz_Bugz is evil, then Noz_Bugz it is. Also, why are you letting Blinkskater go so easily, Marshmallow Marshall?

Because there's nothing to push for now. It's hard to push someone based on a few posts about things that were already discussed. I'm not sure enough to push him, as I said in my list of reads he's the 50/50 one.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

One thing to keep in mind is that a scummy player would be generally unwilling to directly attack someone else... and nearly everyone in the game has, to some extent, attacked someone. The only two players who haven't attacked someone are Noz_Bugz and Blinkskater. Apathy? Not a good trait to have in a town player.

Then again, Distorted always leads town as the neutral evil, so try not to put too much faith in what I just said. Take it with a grain of salt.
Distorted, I find you to be perhaps the second most suspicious player, after Noz_Bugz, or perhaps the third if Blinkskater is also taken into account.

A grain of salt? That's english? Btw it's a real question, I'm not native english :P

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Then again, I suppose you could take the sudden change in my behaviour as proof that I am trying to get you guys to mislynch, having grown desperate that I am now on the radar and that my previous attempt to get Blinkskater/Soviet Love lynched failed.

However, if I were scum, then I would obviously not be trying so hard for Blinkskater if he were indeed scum. So he would have to be a town player. And if he were to flip townie, I would, according to Marshmallow Marshall 's statement, be INSTANTLY LYNCHED THE NEXT DAY.
It would be quite stupid of to me to go accusing players at random like this. No, if I were scum, I would be trying to convince you all not to Lynch, JUST so I could be given town credit, without actually contributing anything. Which is what Blinkskater's been doing thus far.

Nope nope. I said whoever was to hammer blink OR anyone was going to be instant lynched the next day. Of course, if this player was a Witch, then I think we'd reconsider... Blink's playstyle is scummy in itself, and the more he talks and doesn't talk the more I suspect him...

[Marshmallow Marshall]

OzyWho, supposing that Marshmallow Marshall is a townie, then you have to take into account Distorted's seeding the sliver of mistrust into your view of him. He has been the most pro-town player in this town... which, could, actually, be indicative of scum. Still, I find him to be the least likely player to be a scum, in which case Distorted's rather... I don't know, very fine, slight accusation would seem quite suspicious.

Omg. Too scummy to be scum, and now too towny to be town? WHERE'S THE SQUIRREL RAGE IMAGE AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA xD

I still don't get where's that accusation. OzyWho

[Marshmallow Marshall]

In any case, Blinkskater might actually be town, he reads as more of an inactive townie than a true scum.

I know... Damn you blinkskater, stop being silent and comment the lists of reads, the suspicions, Noz_Bugz's case... Come here pls!!

[Marshmallow Marshall]

These were all comments related to last game. Blink was the strongest town read and he turned out to be Arsonist and won the game with it - was kind of an inside troll =P

MarshMarsh: It might've been only trolling, but maybe it was communication to a witch partner. If he was to flip scum later, we'd have to examinate this post.




no, I think Magoroth was targetting blink. The posts i made in my wall post are comments on the quote ABOVE it - read my blue text, then the quote ABOVE the blue text.






This is a really interesting post...could be outting your exact train of thought AND it shows your votes on blink and soviet were actually attempts to lynch, and not pressure votes.

Right. Maybe he's hiding in plain sight? Or maybe he's just honest...



Nothing has changed in blinks posts.... from the string of posts panic does seem to be part of the theme

Two charcters. Happy, damn website?

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Why Ozy and Magoroth are turning my wall post into accusing MM is beyond me. Can you explain where that train of thought is coming from? examples from it targetting MM?

Ok so my reading of it was legit... you didn't even accuse me lol

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I need to go in +- 10 minutes, I'd like an answer so I can think about it while I'm gone :)

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I need to go in +- 10 minutes, I'd like an answer so I can think about it while I'm gone :)

Ok then lol, checking out for 3 hours, mention me (you can do it, just not every post :P) if you need me to review some points. Have fun :)

[blinkskater]

I know... Damn you blinkskater, stop being silent and comment the lists of reads, the suspicions, Noz_Bugz's case... Come here pls!!

Im trying to catch i just woke i will be posting some thoughts soon

[OzyWho]

Distorted, Marshmallow Marshall
Sorry, it seems I did a literal misread. I don't know why but a few of Distorted sentences where Magoroth was mentioned, in my memeory it was MM instead. An example - where Distorted said that it looks like me and Mag are teaming up to paint blinkskater as scummy, I remember it being MM not Mag in that sentence when I read it.
Reading through it a bit: I think I did more than just 2-3 literal misreads. I even can't find sentences that are in my memory as if I had read them. Idk how that happend.
Try to not get tilted or biased because of it. It happens to me in SC2Maf all the time. Though there it's more about me missing out a lot of stuff that was in the chat.

I will later re-read some of this thread and will probably give my final thoughts about things before the days end.

As of now, Soviet_Love is the only confirmed townie in my eyes and here is my reasoning for it:
He has delivered the only concrete thing that town had to work with - math numbers about role possibilities and list of possible Witch roles with comments.

Almost everything else in this thread has been nothing but speculation. If this day would last 72 hours, I think that by the days end - people who give the weakest reasonings would seem like the evilest, just because all we do is find faults in peoples arguments and base our judgements on that. Which is normal I guess, since there is nothing more to work with. Give a false argument with a left out reasoning - 100 posts later it could snowball to a mislynch.

Let me ask something concrete. There is one none-killing witch role that I am scared of because Idk what to do if it shows up. I'm talking about Telepath (Judge). What do we do if it shows up D2? Let me address this question to Noz_Bugz. I want to see something from him and get to know him better by just a scrap.

[Distorted]

Distorted, Marshmallow Marshall
Sorry, it seems I did a literal misread. I don't know why but a few of Distorted sentences where Magoroth was mentioned, in my memeory it was MM instead. An example - where Distorted said that it looks like me and Mag are teaming up to paint blinkskater as scummy, I remember it being MM not Mag in that sentence when I read it.
Reading through it a bit: I think I did more than just 2-3 literal misreads. I even can't find sentences that are in my memory as if I had read them. Idk how that happend.
Try to not get tilted or biased because of it. It happens to me in SC2Maf all the time. Though there it's more about me missing out a lot of stuff that was in the chat.

I will later re-read some of this thread and will probably give my final thoughts about things before the days end.

As of now, Soviet_Love is the only confirmed townie in my eyes and here is my reasoning for it:
He has delivered the only concrete thing that town had to work with - math numbers about role possibilities and list of possible Witch roles with comments.

Almost everything else in this thread has been nothing but speculation. If this day would last 72 hours, I think that by the days end - people who give the weakest reasonings would seem like the evilest, just because all we do is find faults in peoples arguments and base our judgements on that. Which is normal I guess, since there is nothing more to work with. Give a false argument with a left out reasoning - 100 posts later it could snowball to a mislynch.

Let me ask something concrete. There is one none-killing witch role that I am scared of because Idk what to do if it shows up. I'm talking about Telepath (Judge). What do we do if it shows up D2? Let me address this question to Noz_Bugz. I want to see something from him and get to know him better by just a scrap.

....I was the first 1 to run numbers and probabilities here................lol

but I do agree about hearing more from Noz we are 7 hours until day end and have not heard much. If there is an early judge call tomorrow and Noz has not posted anything I am in favor of voting him; just due to the lack of posts.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Distorted, Marshmallow Marshall
Sorry, it seems I did a literal misread. I don't know why but a few of Distorted sentences where Magoroth was mentioned, in my memeory it was MM instead. An example - where Distorted said that it looks like me and Mag are teaming up to paint blinkskater as scummy, I remember it being MM not Mag in that sentence when I read it.
Reading through it a bit: I think I did more than just 2-3 literal misreads. I even can't find sentences that are in my memory as if I had read them. Idk how that happend.
Try to not get tilted or biased because of it. It happens to me in SC2Maf all the time. Though there it's more about me missing out a lot of stuff that was in the chat.

I will later re-read some of this thread and will probably give my final thoughts about things before the days end.

As of now, Soviet_Love is the only confirmed townie in my eyes and here is my reasoning for it:
He has delivered the only concrete thing that town had to work with - math numbers about role possibilities and list of possible Witch roles with comments.

Almost everything else in this thread has been nothing but speculation. If this day would last 72 hours, I think that by the days end - people who give the weakest reasonings would seem like the evilest, just because all we do is find faults in peoples arguments and base our judgements on that. Which is normal I guess, since there is nothing more to work with. Give a false argument with a left out reasoning - 100 posts later it could snowball to a mislynch.

Let me ask something concrete. There is one none-killing witch role that I am scared of because Idk what to do if it shows up. I'm talking about Telepath (Judge). What do we do if it shows up D2? Let me address this question to Noz_Bugz. I want to see something from him and get to know him better by just a scrap.

He is not confirmed. Nor am I. Nor are you. The word confirmed is very strong. Do not use that word without a good reason. A confirmed player is a revealed mayor or a sheriff that found a scum. Even there, the Sheriff could be bussing (throwing under the bus, betraying his scum ally to gain trust) and in fact be a scum.

Soviet's math post is indeed very pro-town, but not confirming him in any way. He could just be making efforts to SEEM protown while being scum and setting up lynches for later.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

....I was the first 1 to run numbers and probabilities here................lol

but I do agree about hearing more from Noz we are 7 hours until day end and have not heard much. If there is an early judge call tomorrow and Noz has not posted anything I am in favor of voting him; just due to the lack of posts.

SL did way more than you though. And yes, I agree, we must hear more from Noz_Bugz. You're the suspect atm, why aren't you showing up and defending yourself/answering our questions?

[Noz_Bugz]

I had to do homework so I'll catch up soon.

[Ganelon]

To Distorted: Yes, I did indeed panic, because I've been singled out as one of the prime suspects, along with Noz_Bugz. I don't want to be lynched, certainly not on the first day, that would be literally retarded for a new player xD

[Soviet_Love]

Distorted, Marshmallow Marshall
Sorry, it seems I did a literal misread. I don't know why but a few of Distorted sentences where Magoroth was mentioned, in my memeory it was MM instead. An example - where Distorted said that it looks like me and Mag are teaming up to paint blinkskater as scummy, I remember it being MM not Mag in that sentence when I read it.
Reading through it a bit: I think I did more than just 2-3 literal misreads. I even can't find sentences that are in my memory as if I had read them. Idk how that happend.
Try to not get tilted or biased because of it. It happens to me in SC2Maf all the time. Though there it's more about me missing out a lot of stuff that was in the chat.

I will later re-read some of this thread and will probably give my final thoughts about things before the days end.

As of now, Soviet_Love is the only confirmed townie in my eyes and here is my reasoning for it:
He has delivered the only concrete thing that town had to work with - math numbers about role possibilities and list of possible Witch roles with comments.

Almost everything else in this thread has been nothing but speculation. If this day would last 72 hours, I think that by the days end - people who give the weakest reasonings would seem like the evilest, just because all we do is find faults in peoples arguments and base our judgements on that. Which is normal I guess, since there is nothing more to work with. Give a false argument with a left out reasoning - 100 posts later it could snowball to a mislynch.

Let me ask something concrete. There is one none-killing witch role that I am scared of because Idk what to do if it shows up. I'm talking about Telepath (Judge). What do we do if it shows up D2? Let me address this question to Noz_Bugz. I want to see something from him and get to know him better by just a scrap.

Thank you for the support :) I agree in that we (as in the town) need to discuss our (as in the game) possible set-ups and what our (as in the town) optimal play should be. Concretely, and not based on typos or forced "slips" or who posts the most or the least.

I like that we have discussed a bit what to do in each situation. 0 killing roles is our best bet, and the most likely setup of the 3 I've mentioned.

We should also discuss what to do if there are 2 killing roles. (So far we have assumed they are both the godfather, as in they each get 1 kill). But our killing roles could be the Arsonist and the Mass Murderer. In such a situation, it may be unlikely that it will simply be 3v2 and then we much lynch and pray we get it right. We could be lulled into a false sense of security by only 1 kill. Or, maybe a TPR will also visit the target and get killed. I know it's 9%, and the least likely, but we should consider what our play is. We have the time.

[Distorted]

To Distorted: Yes, I did indeed panic, because I've been singled out as one of the prime suspects, along with Noz_Bugz. I don't want to be lynched, certainly not on the first day, that would be literally retarded for a new player xD

this is what pressure is :) I have no intention to push a lynch, but when you pressure people you get reactions. Usually panic is a sign of an evil trying to cover. Also we look for people defending or trying to steer the conversation away from them or others under pressure (passive defending). That's why pressure voting can be a good thing, when people get close to L-1 it really starts to show factions and people trying to cover/help teammates ect. That is why I didn't agree with the post about not voting, it removes the ability to put real pressure.

Pressure is the towns strongest weapon. You and me play a similar strategy in the mod of putting people up for roles - well putting people under pressure in FM is the equivalent since there is no trials in this.

[Soviet_Love]

Right now, my most town reads are MM and Distorted, and my most scummy reads are Magoloth and Noz_Bugs. And I'm neutral on Ozy and blink. But like it's only based on some text, nothing hard and fast, just about who seems to be helpful (which can easily be manufactured).

If you want to raise as a town-read for me, please discuss different combinations of witch set-ups (or maybe our own possible town power setups - we haven't discussed that yet and it is worth considering what our strategy should be given possible TPR roles). Discussion along this line is unobjectionable and will bring everyone up to speed.

[Soviet_Love]

Can we have some ideas on possible combinations of town powers? Each of the following has a 1/10 chance:

(1) Sheriff
(2) Vigilante
(3) Detective
(4) Mason Leader
(4b) Mason
(5) Escort
(6) Doctor
(7) Jailor
(8) Bodyguard
(9) Architect
(10) Crier

Of these, 2 are invest roles (sheriff, detective).
Of these, 2 are killing roles (vigilante, jailor).
Of these, 3 are protective roles (doctor, escort, bodyguard)
Of these, 2 are government-type roles (crier, Mason Leader/Mason)
Of these, 1 are unique roles (Architect).

What combinations of these are possible? We can discuss optimal town strategy in each. We seem to be assuming that we will have an invest role, but I would like to point that it is much more likely than not that there are no invest town power roles in this set-up.

[Soviet_Love]

You ever heard the phrase if you want something done right, do it yourself?

I keep trying to give the town leads to discuss and talk about that can help everyone get on the same page. But within like 6 posts after I type, people are back to trying to pressure vote each other and reading into what the word "we" means. Ugh it's ridiculous. Just, for a second, humor me and pretend you are interested in figuring out probabilities of our set-up and what town's gameplay should be. I agree with Ozy in that it is very very difficult to get reads.

I liked Distorted's comment about how we can use pressure votes as like a day-invest. But idk about you, I haven't learned anything from our pressure votes thus far. And I'm scared that the witches will hop on and be able to say some bullshit about why they shouldn't be lynched the following round (or a judge call court!). But regardless - we can both consider the possible witch set-ups, as well as the possible town power set ups, and how we should change our play depending on this.