Night 3

[NorthStar]

Discuss, Dimwit is a Shepard according to my results. I propose that we start investigating or recruiting LURKERS. There is a fair number of players remaining and only a fraction of them posting anything at all. And with all those views, I'm sure all players are reading. FalseTruth can be recruited because of his supposed knoweldge about Lucifer. But I suppose it's just WIFOM at work and him bluffing. I believe FalseTruth is a Sinner. Phillie has been quiet and non-serious on the previous day.

Do NOT recruit Phillie and Yayap.

Lurkers need to be identified and maybe investigated or recruited if it seems useful to our cause.

We should go for another double investigation as McPwnage hasn't drawn lots of attention to himself.

Judas must be eliminated. (If Romans decide to play against us.)

I don't know who I should investigate to be honest. I don't evaluate posts as well as you guys might. So I'll leave the choice of my night actions up to you. When do you plan on being lynched McPwnage? We can have a little gambit and recruit more Disciples before your untimely death but they'll be at risk if we can't heal them all. Also I would suggest having a total of 5 members minus Jesus. This way we'll have numbers on our side. We can't risk having the Roman's joining the Sin and totaling up against us. We need numbers on our side and having 5 members (1+ of the standard 4) is a small advantage. I have considered Romans having less players then us (they do as of now) and the Sinners (as of now also). But I'm worried that Satan might awaken enough Sealed Demons, or the Romans joining the Sinners.


EDIT: I have failed myself, I accidentally mixed up McPwnage's name with MrSmarter's. My bad, feel free to insult me freely for being ignorant. Fixing my mistakes now.

[Illidan]

Hi, I think we should recruit Dimwit tonight. A sheperd is always useful.

Waiting for Raiden to report his findings the other nights to post more.

[Raiden]

Hi there! Thank you for recruiting me, i'm more than willing to help the cause.

Now as for my results, i thought that FalseTruth was referring either to Yayap or Clawtrocity when we were speaking on day 2, and in the end i decided to follow yayap. I believe i should attempt at following each night lucifer would unseal, so that if i am successful we could find 2 demons at the cost of 1. Tonight, however, i shall probably stay at home.

As for Yayap, the result was "no actions", so there is a 99.9% chance he is not lucifer, and a 99.9% chance he is not roman. Humanity PR is not to be excluded, but it is slightly less likely than commoner or sinner. I tried to make use of your code to indicate that, but yeah i'm not really sure about it.

Then i tried asking Dimwit if he used any of his power charges (that was actually the meaning of my "arrogant" post directed at him - not sure he understood it correctly), but he couldn't help.

My suggestions for tonight: i and illidan are in high risk of being killed, but as far as WIFOM goes it may also mean that we won't actually be killed - or, if they have Gluttony, there's nothing we can do about it. I agree on the double investigation, unless one of us is jailed atm. I will talk about possible targets in the next post.

As for the recruit, here are our options:

1. We recruit Dimwit
Pro: very useful role, more than decent reasoning skills, will be glad to help.
Con: has already a target on its head just like me and illidan; we gain no additional info.

2. We use the recruit as an investigation
Pro: we gather additional precious info about some people we don't have a well read on.
Con: we may fail the recruitment on a sinner or roman, which would be quite bad for us.

3. We hunt for demons
Pro: finding lucifer now that Sin has only 2 members would be awesome, but even Beelzebub and Leviathan are extremely dangerous.
Con: we will lose Jesus for sure.

Option 3 is very risky atm, so i would go for either 1 or 2.

[Illidan]

Hey raiden, glad to see you're not jailed.

So Yayap is a sinner, with a sealed demon probably. Commoner doesn't make any sense to me.

As you can read from night2 Claw was my suspect for Lucifer too, but honestly after D3 I'm not sure anymore.
We can check him tomorrow if he's still our best suspect, as he should unseal.

What's your opinion on Lucifer?

[Raiden]

My reads on other people


Ambient = Humanity. Talks about Romans quite often, but he is resistant to lynch. I don't think he's a Roman.
Ash = Humanity. Also resistant to lynch, so not Roman.
Auckmid = Humanity. Very pro-lynch, but i think he would slip up more if he was in a team.
BorkBot = Angel
Capitalier = Commoner/Lucifer - likely commoner.
Celt = While i was rereading, i noticed that he trolled A LOT more on day 1 and 2 than he did on day 3... sudden behavioral changes like this are not a good sign. He claimed Roman/Sin, could he possibly be a Sinner turned demon? Good investigation target.
Clawtrocity = Commoner/Lucifer - likely commoner after reading day 3. I hope Romans listened to me and jailed him.
CmG = Roman. I think he slipped up on this post: http://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showthread.php/3598-Day-III-Retaliation?p=50892#post50892 "high chance of angel scouting" but not tax collector? wtf. Also talks positively about Judas.
Dimwit = Shepherd
divemaster127 = Sinner. Seems uninterested in the game, doesn't know what to do... but he's divemaster127 so idk really.
Dust = Humanity. Talks a lot, very pro-lynch, provides hints of reasoning but not quite enough. Possibly commoner or sinner.
FalseTruth = Now he is an interesting guy. He is most certainly not roman since TheWaaagh had a vote on him even when False reached L-1 on day 2. His strategy to find Lucifer was complete shit, i honestly can't tell if bad play or actual scum. If he is humanity anyway, he must be an assassin.
Fragos = Seer. I believe his claim, as seer is one of the worst roles to fake if you aren't actually one.
fred = Sinner. He's obsessed with yayap (but who isn't nowadays?), he's very eager to lynch apparently regardless of motives.
Ganondorf = Humanity. He's very eager to lynch, but he talks mostly pro-eternity. Commoner?
Goonswarm = Roman. He, TheWaaagh, CmG and Oops have always been voting together within short intervals.
hamslyx = Humanity (Never Posted). First timer, likely bored with role, commoner/sinner.
Illidan = Commoner (Disciple)
J = Commoner/Sinner. Likely bored with role, has almost claimed it in his one post on day 3.
Jaczac = Another guy who has posted a lot on day 2, and just one post on day 3. Suspicious.
Kromos = Commoner/Legionnaire. I believe his commoner claim, but he may have been drafted into roman military despite of what he says.
Lunavium = Commoner/Lucifer - likely commoner.
McPwnage = Jesus
MileS = Humanity PR. Talks and votes pro-eternity while trying to remain hidden.
MrSmarter = Sinner. Looks like he doesn't know what to do, doesn't give opinions.
nanosystem = Humanity. Also looks confused, but he talks pro-eternity.
NorthStar = Angel
oops_ur_dead = Roman. See Goonswarm for motives.
Perotto = Sinner. I don't think Elixir would play like that if he wasn't.
philie = Humanity. Often hints at being PR, but that is actually uncharacteristical of her, so she may be a commoner.
Raiden = Thief (Disciple)
RandomNumbers0 = Humanity. Likely bored with role, commoner/sinner.
Rumpel1408 = Sinner. Claims commoner with obvious code, has already done that on FM3.
steeznuts = Humanity (Never Posted). First timer, likely bored with role, commoner/sinner.
suicidaln00b = Sinner. Meta gamed reasons, just like everyone else thinks.
Sumikoko = Humanity. There's more than meets the eye on Sumikoko, but she provides good reasoning.
vornksr = Humanity PR. Provides good reasoning and votes for the right people. Resistant to lynch, so probably not Roman.
wolfcheese = Humanity. Talks quite a lot, but he's resistant to lynch. Probably not Roman.
Yayap = Sinner. As i said, there is very little chance that he is anything but Humanity (or sealed Sin), but you don't play like that if you are not scum.
Zack = Humanity PR. Resistant to lynch but votes for potential sinners.

[Raiden]

Now on the above list you will notice that i lack a Lucifer suspect, and that is because... i actually don't know. Clawtrocity and Yayap both looked like good targets, but i really don't think that Yayap gambled AGAIN and didn't recruit on night 2, after what happened in FM7. Clawtrocity on the other hand has been talking against romans and about jesus since day 1, so my guess was that he wanted to be jailed to tell them he was a commoner to recruit.
Capitalier always voted properly, so i don't think he is Lucifer, and i could say the same for Lunavium.

I am also lacking a Judas and a 4th roman for the same reason. Too little info to say.
Ambient and Philie are good Judas candidates, given how they hint at being PR without actually playing like they really are.
The 4th Roman could be fred, but that is a very wild guess.

Now i think that Celt would make for a VERY GOOD investigation target and i'd give top priority to him. Other good targets are Jaczac, MrSmarter, Sumikoko and fred.

About the recruit, if we are going for an info recruit i'd go for Vornksr or Wolfcheese. Otherwise, the best recruit without gaining info is definitely Dimwit.

[Illidan]

I mostly agree with your analysis, I just want to make a couple of notes:
Ambient: he's really lurking a lot. I'm sure he isn't a commoner, probably a power role.
FalseTruth: his strategy was utterly retarded. If he's humanity he really disappoints me. If he's an assassin I don't see why he didn't try to kill Claw already.
Fragos: D2 he really seemed pro-sin to me. And claiming seer like that makes no sense at all, I'm not sure what to think.

I also agree on your roman analysis, and I think Celt is the last one, so to be sure we should check him.

I want to know about FT btw. An investigation on him and Celt would be the best if no one is jailed imho.

[McJesus]

I'm in the middle of writing a huge research paper so I can't post much however I think we might want to give a heal to raiden given everyone is suspicous of him being eternity. Target wise a shepard (lookout) would be good to have on the team for later but I was much less impressed with Dimwit day 3 than day 2. Still I would rather have a confirmed power role on my team so I will probably be recruiting Dimwit.

I checked with DR after seeing you were a thief and Lucifer's kill counts as a night action thus yayap is a sinner, possibly a demon that is still sealed.

Claw was my lucifer suspect but now I really don't think so, if he is lucifer that was a very good act.

Investigation targets:
-vorn, I have gotten way more of a pro roman vibe off of him than you which has made me reluctant to recruit him. If he is humanity PR it would be good to know for recruitment
-woofcheese
-dust
-falsetruth (problem he may very well be jailed or get lynched)

I don't think celt is a good investigation target because he is too easy to read as a roman. Could be a commoner but I don't see how investigating him helps. Honestly wifiom aside I would really rather have a heal on Raiden than a double investigation but if you guys insist on a double invest I will agree.

[Raiden]

Well, it is true that Celt claimed roman, but why would he do so? It seems to me that he copied Nick's ploy, except on day 3 he wasn't willing to troll more about it... if that isn't suspicious, i don't know what is. If i am wrong, though, it is true that we don't gain a lot of info about the overall situation. I didn't think about that. Perhaps one of the more involved guys is the best choice.

Now about Vornksr, i myself thought he was a roman after serveral posts, but then he refused to lynch twice, which is extremely not pro-roman. Romans will want to lynch and kill the most possible people, if only to reduce possible jesus targets. I can't find a reason why a Roman shouldn't press for lynch every day, on the contrary vornksr seemed very reluctant about it, which is more of a humanity/sinner/sin behavior since they don't know if they are lynching an ally or not.

FalseTruth... yeah, we will find either a sinner or a humanity power, i don't think he has a demon soul, at least none he is aware of.

Wolfcheese and Dust are also good targets, but they aren't as involved as the other guys, if that is what we are aiming for. I'd rather investigate Celt than one of these two.

And yeah these are basically my thoughts for now. I'll go read more about these guys and see if i can catch something more while we wait for BorkBot.

[BorkBot]

You might be right about CmG, but maybe not. If he is Roman, he is probably their night 1 Legionnaire recruit. I still think it's possible that Ganondorf is Roman together with Yayap, and that he slipped up on day 2 telling people not to vote yayap.

Note that if Yayap is in fact Pilate and recruited a commoner on night 1 (CmG or Kromos?) he had absolutely no reason to visit anyone on night 2. I would not rule out that possibility.

I also noticed the following people were very reluctant to vote Nick, removed their vote and only put it back when a lynch seemed inevitable, or outright refused it: Ganondorf (joked if Yayap would have him killed if he put himself on his list by voting), Philie (very aggressive when I asked a question about Yayap and implying he was Roman), CmG, Yayap, Celt and Kromos. This seems like logical behaviour for Romans after a die-hard Rome-Eternity supporter got killed last night, causing them to lose a tax collector. I also assume their tax collectors may have checked Nick and desired to keep him around as a sign of good faith towards Sin. So to me, those are the primary Roman suspects at the moment. Vornskr may be Roman for the same reasons, but I'm less sure about him. He pointed Philie out as Roman, so it’s unlikely that both of them are Roman unless they’re trying to tell Lucifer not to kill them at night.

I’m actually a little afraid right now that McPwnage will get hit tonight. He was really making an effort to get people to vote Nick without any codes or crazy WIFOM-filled arguments, which gives him a definite high position on Sin’s hit list (look at TheWaaagh). I’d give it about 25% chance for McPwnage to be attacked tonight, 3% that it’s Gluttony that does the attacking. We might want to heal him to be safe, but if everyone else favours a double investigation we will go with that.

While he has a huge target on his back as well, I think we MUST recruit Dimwit. He’s the best possible asset we can get. A Shepherd with 4-6 night actions left is way too useful to leave out there. I’ve cooked up a plan that we might be able to execute with his aid.

It’s vital that we send forward a herald to negotiate with the Romans on day 4. If we do not do this, they will let Pilate lynch Jesus on day 5 without question and we will lose reputation with Rome for not reaching out to them first. This was quite problematic and risky due to fear of death and the need to lose an investigation, but with a LOOKOUT on our side we will know exactly who attacks that herald if anyone does, which is immensely useful to us.

If we recruit Dimwit tonight and let him watch our herald tomorrow, we can learn a lot of things. If Tiberius decides to execute him, we will know who it is. If an assassin or a demon targets our herald, we will know who it is, too.

With this information, we don’t need to be subtle about trying to draw Tiberius' attention. Someone can just outright say "I'm Eternity and I would like to speak with Tiberius tonight to negotiate with Rome. We have information for you." I suggest either Illidan or Raiden steps forward. Raiden is already a likely kill target anyway, and Illidan doesn’t have any special powers.

As for the proposition that could be made, I suggest the following. We will offer up McPwnage for lynching on day 6 or 7. We can't wait longer than that because if he dies to Sin, we lose for sure. We also need to exploit Rome's loss of a Tax Collector and offer them the names of the commoners we've found. You can give Claw for free, but you should try to establish some code with Tiberius to communicate the other names to him on the following days (day 4 and day 5), which are given ONLY if Tiberius does not execute you as an indication that he accepts our offer.

I would also kindly ask if the Romans will occasionally use a Legionnaire to protect you, because Sin will never suspect that Eternity is being guarded and we can kill demons together that way. With the commoner names, we are supplying Rome with fresh recruits to replace any lost Legionnaires. And being able to recruit new Legionnaires means that Pilate gets more opportunities to find Lucifer. Our hidden benefit is that we can learn who the legionnaire is if they roll with it, thanks to the lookout (but don’t tell Tiberius that we have one).

Of course, none of this will work if either McPwnage or Dimwit dies too soon. Which is why we might want to start thinking about using heals.

What do you think?

[BorkBot]

Sorry, I meant using a code to give additional commoner names to the Romans on day 5 and day 6. Not 4 and 5.

[Illidan]

I'm really hesitant about the jail thing tho. If you really want to do it I will do it, but the execution from yesterday's showed that Tiberius isn't willing to speak, and he's not willing to let eternity live since he executed Brenn after he talked about an eternity-roman alliance.

[BorkBot]

Brennenburg had been making different claims constantly and he wasn't reliable in any way. He didn't really have anything of value to offer to the Romans, but we have the names of commoners/lucifer suspects.

Also, we will heal you. His execution doesn't pierce immunity/protections. If he decides to execute, we will at least know who he is (lookout). And you will only die if a demon hits you as well, which would give us the names of Tiberius + a demon in exchange for a disciple, which is a fairly decent trade-off. Tiberius won't bother you again if you live through an execution and he will gain nothing.

We have to try to communicate with the Romans anyway.. might as well create a situation where we will always get something out of it. The worst case scenario is that the Romans pretend to go along with it, but betray us in the end. But if that was their plan all along, we never stood a chance to win at all.

[Raiden]

Well, if anything the fact that none of us is jailed is a good sign from Rome. I think that, if they wanted to join Sin, they would most certainly jail me or illidan, because we radiate a bright eternity aura. This being considered, they probably jailed claw, yayap or falsetruth.

BorkBot is right when he says Yayap could be Pilate with 2 legionnaires already, but well why would you not attempt a new recruit regardless? It's not like it harms you, and if a legionnaire dies that night you can have him instantly replaced. I would never stay at home if i were Pilate.

I'm still very unsure about Celt. Now that i checked, he actually voted with my other roman suspects on day 2, but still his day 3 behavior is suspicious. Vornksr on the other hand always voted very independently, i'll be surprised if he is part of any organized faction.

Conclusions:
- recruit Dimwit is ok
- investigation targets: i stand by the list i wrote 2 posts ago, perhaps adding Vorn, Wolfcheese and Dust. Too many fucking players to decide.
- i wouldn't heal, of course it's a huge risk but we need info more than anything else at the moment, especially if we use the recruit to increase our ranks

As for sending Illidan in jail, i'd wait until day 5. I think romans are pretty much clueless about who jesus is, just as we are mostly clueless about the demons. The more info we can gather before attempting risky plans, the better.

These are my opinions.

[BorkBot]

The problem with waiting until day 5 is that the Romans may be less inclined to cooperate... They might just decide to use Pilate's ability because we failed to give them Jesus, then jail and kill Illidan right away and side with Sin.

[Raiden]

Edited for my retardation.

See post below.

[Illidan]

@Bork: I don't understand one thing tho thinking about it. Why shouldn't they lynch Jesus on D5? Why would they wait even if I talk with them? Seeing it from a Roman perspective, it doesn't make any sense.

[Raiden]

@Bork: I don't understand one thing tho thinking about it. Why shouldn't they lynch Jesus on D5? Why would they wait even if I talk with them? Seeing it from a Roman perspective, it doesn't make any sense.

This.

I am a derp and i actually thought that Pilate's ability was actually "instantly lynch player X", but it seems he is able to lynch Jesus regardless if he knows who he is or not. This means they won't even care about our plans, if Pilate survives until day 5 Rome wins, period. This might be a good reason to investigate Pilate candidates, and attempt to lynch him tomorrow. Otherwise, we accept the situation as is and let them lynch jesus on day 5. I don't think they would even consider waiting, it would be quite stupid of them.

EDIT: i just asked DR about it and Pilate can use his ability starting from day 6, not day 5. This gives us one more night worth of recruit and investigations, which is good.

[Forum Mafia GM]

It says Only After Day 5, meaning has to be Day 6.

[McJesus]

I think we definetly should use a heal on either me or raiden, I am really afraid one of us is going to get hit. I would say more likely Raiden but more impactful if it is me. Since Borkbot seems to agree he can decide which one of us to heal. In terms of investigating I would like to know Vorn's role 100% so he would be my ideal target but I would be satisfied with other posibilites. Him and Woof are my probable night 4 recruiting targets.

also if i were to guess at who pilate is I would say ganondorf but I am going to have to get lynched eventually so I just say we go with the day 5 plan.

[Illidan]

Since we don't know > anything < about sin, because we just hit commoners or humanity PR, imho information is invaluable at that point, even at the expense of a recruit.

I still think we should double investigate, and either trying to find pilate or investigating sinners to find demons, I'm not yet sure which one.

[Raiden]

-5 hours to the deadline, we'd better start taking decisions. I made up my mind and i will recap what are my "votes" on what we should do:

- McPwnage recruits Dimwit
- NorthStar investigates Celt
- BorkBot investigates Vornksr
- Raiden performs no action
- Next day, illidan stays on low profile (not getting jailed and not heralding).

If we can't reach a consensus, i say that ultimately the decision falls on who can perform the action.

[Illidan]

-5 hours to the deadline, we'd better start taking decisions. I made up my mind and i will recap what are my "votes" on what we should do:

- McPwnage recruits Dimwit
- NorthStar investigates Celt
- BorkBot investigates Vornksr
- Raiden performs no action
- Next day, illidan stays on low profile (not getting jailed and not heralding).

If we can't reach a consensus, i say that ultimately the decision falls on who can perform the action.

I'm ok with that. As I said I think we should do double investigation and the targets are good for intel.

[McJesus]

I've allready pmed to recruit dimwit, my votes:
-northstar investigates vorn
-borkbot heals me
-raiden performs no action

I don't see how investigating celt helps us. If we do double invest try getting dust or woofcheese

[McJesus]

decision ultimatly comes down to what bork wants to do

[BorkBot]

With the day 6 Pilate lynch, we still have a day to consider whether we will use a herald or not. Which is definitely good, but I still think we should consider it again on the next night.

It would not be entirely unreasonable to request the Romans to wait one additional day with their Pilate lynch. If they have two Legionnaires protecting Tiberius and Pilate anyway, they really aren't at any risk to lose with one extra day of waiting. And the information on commoner/lucifer targets we can provide them with could be quite interesting from their perspective, because they will be able to pool their own investigative info with it (which is good for them considering they can only check one person per day).


I will heal McPwnage then. I decided for myself that I would do so if he favoured that option over taking the risk and investigating 2 people. I can still adjust my course of action if you change your mind in the next few hours, McPwnage.

I also agree that investigating Celt is not that useful yet. We shouldn't specifically search for potential sinners until there are 3 demons, in my opinion. If we don't know a good lynch target tomorrow and things start getting vague, we could maybe decide to roll with FalseTruth's plan to lynch Claw. It might get sufficient backup. Or we could just postpone lynching or start a lynch on Yayap and see if any of the Romans protests.

[Illidan]

The whole point of the Celt investigation is because we suspect he's a demon, either unsealed or sealed and aware of it.

But well, I guess we can live with 1 investigation. At least we'll get a shepherd tonight hopefully.

[Raiden]

That's it then.

Thank you bork for bringing up the lynch issue. Let's plan for some scenarios:

1) Random uninteresting people die tonight. We lynch claw? This will likely be supported, but i still think he's a commoner.

2) Claw dies. I'd say we lynch yayap. Most likely a sinner.

3) Claw and Yayap die. Wat do? MrSmarter is probably my best sinner candidate.

This is assuming our investigations fail to reveal any demon or Pilate, in which case i'd lynch them with my eyes closed, and that nothing relevant happens during the day. But what if we find a sinner? My opinion on the matter is that we stick with option 1 or 2, and save the new info for later. In case of option 3 though, i'd lynch the newfound sinner.

[Illidan]

1) I guess so
2) Yes, Yayap needs to die
3) Why not suicidaln00b? Anyone will agree with that lynch.

[Raiden]

Yeah, suicidaln00b uh. That's also a good idea.

[Illidan]

I need to go, cya tomorrow. I hope we will still be alive :P

[BorkBot]

It could mean nothing, but look at FalseTruth's new avatar. Could be implying something. I do believe he said at some point that he did not have a night action that could be used to find Lucifer. And Lucifer is immune to role-blocking.

On the other hand, he also said that he would use his night action to prove his Lucifer suspect in another post, which is contradicting.

[Raiden]

It's completely pointless for FalseTruth to create such an elaborated strategy as a role that couldn't find Lucifer, it doesn't make any sense. It is still pointless as any role, actually... we'll see after the nights end if with new info we can get out of the darkness.

Speaking of which, i really hope NorthStar sent his PM, or i will be mad.

[Forum Mafia GM]

He didn't. Have fun!

[McJesus]

well fuck, put him down for investigating vorn please, wtf northstar?

[NorthStar]

I shall investigate Celt. Sorry for my absence. I was pre-occupied with too many things. I've read what you've all posted tonight and I'll keep an eye out during the Day for Ambient and Dust.