Forum Mafia GM
May 4th, 2014, 06:01 PM
FM XXI: Day 10
FM USA was found dead this morning
His role was Escort.
FM USA left a last will:
SAUDIA ARABIA IS SCUM. ABSOLUTELY LYNCH HIM.
classic scum not checking their day accounts. CLASSIC.
Night 1:
N/A
Night 2:
N/A
Night 3:
N/A
Night 4:
N/A
Night 5:
N/A
Night 6:
You were witched last night.
Night 7:
You were possessed last night.
Last Will:
I = ESCORT
NIGHT ONE - ENGLAND
NIGHT TWO - ITALY
NIGHT THREE - CANADA
NIGHT FOUR - ARGENTINA
NIGHT FIVE - SWEDEN
NIGHT SIX - ARGENTINA, redirected to thailand maybe?
NIGHT SEVEN - SAUDIA ARABIA, redirected to mexico probably
NIGHT EIGHT - SAUDIA ARABIA, redirected to Costa Rica probably.
Wasn't actually blocked n1 or n2, but i was witched night 5. didn't say anything about it.
i'm fairly certain it was real, unless theres another escort, which i think there is now.
LIST OF TOWN TO SCUM
real reads
COSTA RICA - NEED LEADS. he was dead wrong on sweden. probably ghosted though
GERMANY - i still believe his flag is good enough defense, for now.
edit. not after rushing that lynch
INDIA - MAYBE CITIZEN? MAYBE. not sure
IRAN - seems pretty smart, but hesistant to vote toxicologist. could be bad
JAPAN - dumb town. sorry.
KENYA - don't believe this guys a bp, but also dont' believe theres 2 bps
MEXICO - town
SAUDIA ARABIA - SCUM
SPAIN - reads town
SWITZERLAND - town
THAILAND - LURKY SCUM
order of lynches:
SAUDIA ARABIA then maybe spain/thailand or germany?
Egypt was lawyered or he's this sites worst sheriff ever. sincerely doubt theres a tailor, so you can do a role list analysis.
it's very interesting that thailand claimed blocked two nights in a row. THIS NEEDS TO BE FOLLOWED UP ON.
also check vote patterns for scum voting analysis
Day 1
Libya: Argentina, Poland, Egypt, England
New Zealand: Canada
Japan: Cyprus South Korea, Ireland, Greenland, New Zealand, Thailand
Cyprus: France
USA: China
Poland: Saudi Arabia
Russia: Germany
South Korea: Japan
NONE: Costa Rica, India, Iran, Kenya, Mexico, Spain, Switzerland, USA
Day 2
Greenland - Egypt, China, Poland, Colombia, Russia, Mexico, Libya, Japan, Iran, Ireland, Germany, England, Switzerland, Fiji, Italy, Costa Rica, Spain
China - Argentina
Japan - Canada
India - South Korea
Egypt - Saudi Arabia, USA
NONE: Germany, India, Kenya, Switzerland, Thailand
Day 3
Norway - Russia, Egypt, South Korea, USA, Kenya, Sweden, Libya, Costa Rica, Mexico,
Fiji, Germany, Thailand, Ireland, Japan, Brazil
South Korea - Iran, Colombia, Poland, Norway, Argentina
Canada - Cyprus, France
Mexico - England
Germany- Spain
NONE: India, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland
Day 4
Egypt – Poland, Japan, USA
Poland – Russia, Egypt, Fiji, Argentina, Germany, Spain
Costa Rica – Libya, Brazil
Fiji – Columbia, Saudi Arabia, Kenya
Libya – Mexico
Sweden – Costa Rica
Germany – Ireland
India – Cyprus
NONE: India, Iran, Mexico, Switzerland, Thailand
Day 5
Poland -: Sweden, Russia, Cyprus, USA, Germany, Japan, Argentina, Iran, Mexico, Spain, Ireland
Germany - Kenya, Saudi Arabia, Thailand
Sweden - Costa Rica, Colombia
NONE: India, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland
Day 6
Kenya - Argentina, Sweden
Sweden -Iran, Spain, USA, Mexico, Germany, Japan, Brazil, Ireland
Thailand - Cyprus
Germany - Thailand
NONE: Costa Rica, India, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, USA
Day 7
Argentina - Saudi Arabia, Iran, Cyprus, Spain, Costa Rica, Thailand, Kenya, Germany
Kenya - Brazil, Argentina
NONE: India, Japan, Mexico, Switzerland, USA
Day 8:
Cyprus - Japan, Saudi Arabia, Germany, Costa Rica, Kenya, Thailand, Mexico
Thailand - Iran
NONE: India, Spain, Switzerland, USA
someone color code this to get some codes.
--night 9 appendum
blocking kenya, don't think theres a witch anymore
i think kenya and argentina are the one greenland was refering to, as needing to work together. they were arguing over tailoring
i got saudi arabia because argentina, greenland, and england all talked about tailoring, which is, i think, what they wanted us to think from the beginning, to help spam up the chat.
also, there are actually 2 more mafia, not one, not sure what that last one is. but there's gotta be a lawyer in there somewhere. might still be a witch
at the last second, i changed my block to india, still think kenya should be lynched. if no ones willing to read/work, just lynch kenya.
Roles List:
Living Players:
Graveyard:
Ragnar Lodbrok (Hidden Norseman)
Hidden Norseman
Hidden Norseman
Hidden Norseman
King Aelle (Hidden Anglo-Saxon)
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Non-Town
Hidden Non-Town
Hidden Non-Town
Hidden Non-Town
Hidden Any
Hidden Any
Hidden Any
Hidden Any
Hidden Any
FM Germany
FM India
FM Iran
FM Japan
FM Kenya
FM Mexico
FM Spain
FM Switzerland
FM Thailand
FM Australia - Consigliere - Died Night 1
FM Pakistan - Detective - Died Night 1
FM Greenland - Beguiler - Sacrificed Day 2
FM China - Doctor - Died Night 2
FM New Zealand - Ghost - Died Night 2
FM Norway - Blacksmith - Sacrificed Day 3
FM England - Consort - Died Day 3
FM Canada - Ninja - Died Night 3
FM South Korea - Vigilante - Died Night 3
FM Italy - Mayor (King Aelle) - Died Night 3
FM France - Citizen - Died Night 3
FM Egypt - Sheriff - Died Day 4
FM Libya - Mason - Died Night 4
FM Poland - Witch - Sacrificed Day 5
FM Fiji - Citizen - Mod killed Day 5
FM Colombia - Citizen - Died Night 5
FM Russia - Mason - Died Night 5
FM Sweden - Toxicologist - Sacrificed Day 6
FM Ireland - Citizen - Died Night 6
FM Argentina - Disguiser (Ragnar Lodbrok) - Sacrificed Day 7
FM Brazil - Journalist - Died Night 7
FM Cyprus - Serial Killer - Sacrificed Day 8
FM Costa Rica - Detective - Died Night 8
FM Saudi Arabia - Drug Dealer - Sacrificed Day 9
FM USA - Escort - Died Night 9
Day 10 will end in 24 hours at 6:00 PM PST, May 5 (http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=May+5%2C+2014%2C+6%3A00+PM+PST).
*** DAY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 24 HOURS SINCE <10 PLAYERS ***
With 9 players alive, it takes 5
Forum Mafia GM
May 4th, 2014, 06:01 PM
Last Wills:
You think you are all safe, but alas, the Vikings have arrived. All hail the arrival of the noble savages!
We shall plunder your towns and take thy women.
But enough RPing. May the town be as barren as my icy lands. Get ready to burn.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wonderful job Egypt. Spot on work there. I hope it was worth it
Evil Neutrals! Proclamation for ya. We can win with everyone except the dirty town and meddling cult. So we want to win with you if we can. Don't waste your night actions on Egypt. Trust us, we know what we're doing and you can consider that problem sorted.
Cult, if we don't win you guys need to. Here's a head start, you've got some confirmed masons running amuck. Don't let them get away with it. Check out FMXX, it's better to coordinate until the town is put down.
We have decided to not claim feedback relevant to you if we get it to signal to you that we're with you. Ex: doused, we won't claim it, and you know we're on your side.
To my fuck buddies:
sorry troops I'm outta here, but use logic (especially concerning bouncy) and you know what to do.
blackmailer sticking around before not sticking around is a good idea per what I said in night chat
don't get fooled by an anteater, it's hella bad if we do. let george/unmarshalled/etc. deal with it
try to figure out who smoke is and coordinate if possible
duke needs to be eliminated asap, along with replumed, argo, biarticulate, and knap - if these players are who I think they are these are extremely high priority all else held equal
oceanic, castilla should work more together. fraud, demobbing, and misdating are in a good place right now
use appetizer to your advantage, especially as it ties in to the proclamation
greenwood should get a greenlight soon, use it
tossing out picks is useful for drafting later
corvus might be more likely than reforgeable
All non-town, even if we don't individually win, we do at some level if we fuck the town. Let the reign of scum continue from FM XX!
Peace out bitches. I'll enjoy my popcorn from the sidelines.
I'm doctor
n1: no action, didnt heal in that clusterfuck
n2: egypt
IMPORTANT: HEALING DOES STOP CULT CONVERT I HAVE ASKED THIS BUT IT DOES NOT DO +1
final read list:
plz note that if i say if they are unaligned that they are not town to me but are unlikely to be aligned with Greenland the the rest of the mafia
FM Argentina: gut town
FM Brazil: gut scum
FM Canada: gut scum
FM China: dead doc
FM Colombia: we will know soon enough, something is irking though
FM Costa Rica: havent seen
FM Cyprus: after further revew, i am actualy leaning scum
FM Egypt: sheriff
FM England: gut town
FM Fiji: unaligned with greenland
FM France: replaced in....
FM Germany: haven seen much
FM India: lurker galore
FM Iran: guts say hes pr, tonw or not is to be decided
FM Ireland: gut town
FM Italy: mafia scum, post 26 and 55, if he flips scum it would confirm a DDer
FM Japan: student most likely
FM Kenya: seriously if this guy is town in any form, he does truly suck
FM Libya: mason claim
FM Mexico: I'm pegging him scum, he seems too "IDGAF" to be town and is playing the apathetic card
FM New Zealand: guts say scum
FM Norway: ?
FM Poland: I'm gonna rule him netural, but not evil
FM Russia: not a mafia scum if Italy flips mafia
FM Saudi Arabia: I'm going to give her town
FM South Korea: Scum/neutral based off how day 2 went and interactions with greenland, mafia, most likely
FM Spain: i am going to say unaligned with greenland
FM Sweden: ?
FM Switzerland: guts would say neutral
FM Thailand : ?
FM USA: gut neutral
Ugh looks like that poison was real. Yay. I'm town Operator which is why I was so certain Greenland was scum yesterday. I acted like I couldn't be roleblocked ("someone tried to roleblock me") so that I wouldn't get roleblocked again. I targetted Colombia and Saudi hoping that Saudi would shoot himself as a result.
As for reads... Mexico is probably scum, Canada/Saudi/Argentina etc are scum. My reads haven't really changed since my giants reads lists was back in the first half of D3. Poland is probably legit though and I'm less confident in my Egypt townread. There's probably scum in the lurkers.
Of course I get rbed N1 and the one guy I target is a Doctor -which could have potentially been quite useful to either side-.
Getting Ninja was a blessing. Should have paid a bit more attention to day chat to possibly have prevented myself from dying. Oh well.
Speciar code 1: r
Speciar code 2: Real Exempt Noel Maroon Tilapia
(Except for the word Real, there are no L's; Maroon Tirapia = Red Herring)
Speciar code 3: South East Asia
n1 FM Austraria
n2 FM New Zearand
n3 FM Canada
I don't regret defendering Greenrand cause friction = more post anarysis. Jk I do because I brew my shot at MVP. Rooting for FM Corombia
Shot Austraria for braming real rife, Shot New Zearand for being the king of active rurkers and being super ambivarent about votes. A real Town wourd cast his votes much ress roboticarry. Arso, Day 1 Post #206. I understand that shooting India wourd probabry prove my rore better. I'm arso uncomfortabre at how both of my targets are Oceania.
Shot Canada. Fuck the British territories.
ENGRAND IS MOST DEFINITERY CONSORT. Isn't it too convenient that he received a suit and poisoned on the same day? And he craimed rorebrocked on D2? And he never craimed Operator? And he active rurked? And his rast wirr was ass?
RIP Norway you rittle bitch, but it was you or me.
I had unrimited charges.
If I'm not a vigirante in the graveyard I've been tairored
"I onry regret that I have but one rife to give for my country" - Nathan Hare, South Korean Patriot
I have nothing to say that I haven't already said except to reveal my code, maybe it will clue you on my real role. Good luck in your scum hunting!
Message: By my blood and by my death, I curse you all! As I die, so shall you all!
Key: Shadows of Darkness
To My Dearest of Comrades,
So I was actually ghosted on Day 5, which was really frustrating, considering the circumstances that the Ghost used to exploit how I played to be a detriment to the Town. Oh well, I guess what's done is done. I was a Citizen as I claimed.
One thing I want to bring up in my last will right now is the conversation between Brazil and Argentina at the end of the day. I picked up on this after reading the day over on my normal account, and I noticed this string of comments that really struck a wrong note with me.
I assume you are not the same Colombia.
Right. That's why I think it could be a ghost who try to get things done today, but fearing if Germany actually flip mafia.
First off, there are two things wrong with this. First off, he already said I probably wasn't the same person in the first quote, meaning that the theory stated in the second quote would essentially be nullified. Second of all, there aren't many advantages of a Ghost making any report on anybody, so possessing Poland would have been a poor choice. Getting a Town report or a Mafia report would result in a detriment to the Ghost's win condition, which translates to the idea of Poland being such a poor target, especially with his past behavior.
So you're super confident that Columbia is actual scum pretending to be ghosted. Are you willing to lead a lynch on him tormorrow?
This is an awfully quick assumption for what was pretty much just mentioned by Brazil at the time. It brings both of them down in a way, considering the idea that it was just mentioned that I probably was possessed, but it was quickly dismissed, even when a general consensus was made that I WAS possessed.
Second off...Poland is lying about an Arms Dealer; Mafia members can't be recruited to the Cult. Iran is either Town or Cult at this point, considering the circumstances. With Norway dead, there's no way that the Cult has a supply of guns unless the Mafia found them, which is unlikely due to Egypt's confirmation that Australia was in fact a Consigliere. On top of this, I feel as if Poland did this to put fear in everybody of Iran being part of a Cult, increasing my Town read on him. The only thing I'm worried about is the fact that he got a gun twice in a row, which is a bit cautioning from my perspective. The only other thing I can think of with this is the idea that Poland lied about the idea of a suit, putting the fear of England being Town in everyone, as well as the fear that a Cult existed. It's a pretty plausible theory in practice, which makes me think that it's just one big bluff and that Poland was indeed the Witch. Though if this is the case, then Costa Rica needs to be scrutinized today due to a Mafia report on Poland, since it's a Neutral Witch, rather than a Mafia Witch.
Thirdly...Poland's idea of scum dominance. We've got 1-2 Mafia members left (I'm leaving out the potential of 3 left due to to the circumstances of all the other neutrals that have been confirmed). Along with this, a high possibility of a Serial Killer, and 5 Cult members at most, assuming they recruited successfully every night. That leaves the potential of a maximum of 7 scum left in the game (8 including Ghost, which still isn't enough), which leaves us with 11 Town (assuming the remainder of Hidden Any roles are all Town). There's no way for Poland to know that the scum would have control over Day 6 unless he knew about other neutrals being existent in the game, which -- based on the results he gave us if he is indeed a Sheriff -- is doubtful at this point in the game. Along with this, I got the idea of there being two Masons, and three Citizen claims left (two if you see me dead in the morning and if India doesn't get himself mod killed). Assuming every other recruit failed, that leaves the Masons with a maximum chance of 5/9 hitting a Cult member, which gives an even more distinct chance that the scum will not have control over Day 6 like Poland thinks they will. Along with the 1/9 chance of hitting the Cult Leader, there's that high of a chance that at most 4 scum die in one night, giving the Town a HUGE edge over all forms of scum. I don't get where the idea of scum dominance came from, but there's a huge chance that it isn't going to happen because of the Mason Leader. Possess the ML or not (besides, New Zealand won't know who the Mason Leader is anyway, so that idea pretty much screwed the theory completely, unless Poland hinted toward each member of the Cult, in which we should evaluate Poland's posts very closely if that is the case. It makes sense to give the Ghost an outline of who not to possess.
On a final note...here are the current reads I have right now. Green Yellow and Red are Town, Neutral, and Mafia, respectively. Purple represents a Cult read. If a Cult doesn't exist, then treat the purple as Mafia.
FM Argentina - His dismissal of Brazil's past posts (as shown above) worries me quite deeply. I'm not sure what all he has in store for the rest of the game, but I've a feeling that it isn't anything for the interest of the Town.
FM Brazil - Pretty much the same as Argentina, but his dismissal of me being possessed after conspicuously (yet subtly) saying so himself makes me think that somebody hinted toward him making a mistake, thus causing such a dismissal. Not sure what else to think with that.
FM Costa Rica - Would be Green had Poland showed up as Mafia, but he turned up as Witch. Even if he is Cult, that's a solid lie from you. Poland saying you were Town doesn't help either.
FM Cyprus - I can't make a read on him for some strange reason...it may be that he has a lot of posts, or maybe because he doesn't put all that much in his posts. I'm neutral about him, as I can see it being taken to either a Town or a Scum read.
FM Germany - Not sure what to think of him after Poland got lynched. He may be more likely Town from my perspective, but this is all WIFOM here.
FM India - Needs to post or be mod killed; his activity is ridiculous.
FM Iran - He's the best Town member we have right now, from my perspective. It'd be a shame if he turned out to be part of a Cult, but I'm willing to believe that he is Town right now.
FM Ireland - He hasn't posted enough for me to get a decent read, but from what I've seen, he seems like Town. I'd need more information to get a more accurate result though.
FM Japan - He is very clever with some of his analysis and theorizing, which is something that he has stood out for in recent days. If he were scum, he wouldn't come out of his shell like this, so I am fully confident that he is Town.
FM Kenya - He is surprisingly hard to read, even though his play style is a lot more antagonistic than most here. I'm not sure what to think of him in terms of alignment, because antagonism can stem from both Town and Scum.
FM Mexico - I believe his Citizen claim fully. Besides, a Citizen claim is likely to be neither Cult nor Mafia, so it works out.
FM Russia - Pretty much a confirmed Mason at this point.
FM Saudi Arabia - I seen to be the only one seeing the benignant intentions from him; he really hasn't done anything to put himself into a hole, and his theorizing ability is astonishingly well, but everyone seems to put it aside because he is suspicious. You should all rethink your read on him and look more closely.
FM Spain - They make decent posts when they are around, but they aren't the most active. They seem to have a very passive background style, which can either be an indicator for Serial Killer or a Town member that can't get into anything successfully (I could say the same about Saudi Arabia, but he's been a lot more active than Spain has). I can go either way on this one.
FM Sweden - I'm legitimately at a loss as to a decent read on her. No matter how hard I looked, I couldn't find a single thing that made her stand out except for her willingness to get more information out of my Day 1 analysis. I don't know what's going on with her other than that, but the random suspicions seem to be a bit unneeded.
FM Switzerland - He claimed to have requested a replacement, so I don't know what to think about him.
FM Thailand - Seriously, you need to do more. The more you troll around, the worse of a perception you get from other people, and I an no exception.
FM USA - Similarly to Japan, he came out of his shell later in the game, indicating Town.
Make of these what you will. As a final goodbye, I will leave you with my LW code.
ANTIDISESTABLISHMENTARIANISM
If you want to call bullshit on my code, then think of one currently living person who would make a LW like this other than me.
With Regards,
The Colombian Drug Administration
I confirm that Libya was a mason and was not tailored.
If the other mason or the mason leader needs to claim during the day, he should solve this code:
qaeipudmfnvijasdfgmznvgi
The cypher was posted in the mason chat night 4 reply #8.
I am a Citizen
Don't trust all the citizen claimers. Pressure Costa Rica today since no chance of being vented/ghost. Sweden was faking. I still agree Kenya is suspicious so it would be good to pressure him some more. Iran is a bit scummy now because he didn't like use voting Sweden and he should be watched.
I didn't expect to survive today, that evidence was just too damn good.
Serial killer, kill Brazil tonight.
I'd like to avoid you targeting the same people as the mafia so after Brazil why don't you focus the most active town and our guys will get the less active town
Mafia, tonight kill restipulation. I believe he is the ultrafiltration.
HAIL HYDRA
TL;DR
---------------------------
About
Last will and lynch of Argentina:
Mafia already know who is SK.
Their suggestion toward SK is about
1. Make sure no friendly fire between SK and Mafia
2. Gain + KPN
3. If true then it basically mean the last few mafia are medium active.
So based on activity(Quality of posts):
Most: USA, Cyprus, Mexico, Iran
Medium: Arabia, Japan, Kenya, Costa Rica, Germany
Low: Thailand,
Lower: India, Switzerland
A word to the wise serial Killer:
Sk have no idea who the last mafia is.
Once cooperate with Mafia, sk is at a lower ground:
Look this table of mafia's action if pressed: (mafia action)/(SK action)
Table of prisoner SK(Press) SK(hide)
Mafia(choose to out SK) OutSK/Gambit OutSK/Gambit
Mafia(choose to hide SK) Gambit/Gambit Gambit/Gambit
It means out sk is the dominate strategy for Mafia, despite what SK would do.
On the other side, all strategy to SK is indifferent.
And for SK once pressed, the only way out is to gambit
I hope the SK watch out what he is dealing with. There is no long term partnership with mafia.
Especially they know who you are while you don't know their number and roles.
However, you must notice if someone purposely protecting you. Those are the ones you want to think about.
------------------------
FM Brazil is replaced in night 3.
The last will is written by FM Brazil.
Credibility: FML
Value: Infinite Useless
Code: X doesn't matter. It was about Chinese reminder theorem.
FM Brazil is a twitching nutty Chinese bastard.
Warning: Lynch a neutral doesn't get you ANY town credit in my analysis
Action:
(Until day 7, all interviewed targets are alive. That is : Free Fullretard Passport is created)
Day 1: Arabia*** - No Response
Day 2: Cyprus
Day 3: Mexico
Day 4: Spain - No Response
Day 5: Switzerland
Day 6: USA
Day 7: Arabia - agian
----Night 3---
Don't like Norway anyway.
The previous Brazil is probably frustrated.
----Day 4----
Italy trusted Poland.
Italy died.
There is a drug dealer, who used to drug people with "attacked & healed"/"witched" to discredit them.
It is possible that Poland was drugged, so I lied healing him to shield him as much.
--------Night 4--------
"Targets are notified if they are successfully poisoned."
Bye Egypt.
Egypt lied about didn't check greenland. He did check greenland.
Why lie?
It gives him more space to accuse people.
And you fucktards wants all liars to pay the price?
Aint all liars are evil.
So some people is secretly discredit your townies. DO NOT FALL IN THAT SHIT TRAP.
I highly doubt there is a mason, but I just ride the tide and use masons to shield people I like.
----------Night 5-------------
Poland is non-mafia, as I guessed.
So he may guessed out few mafias from witch reporting and such.
Germany claimed a role to protect himself.
------Night 6------
Fuck, don't want toxicology to die but Sweden you are such a loser.
USA didn't check me. I bluffed.
USA said this in day 5:"Why isn't Brazil dead? He is a fucking doctor"
USA went to Germany Night 5.
---Day 7----
Ireland is dead. I guess killer is trying to hunt down the Journalist. My time is short.
I have been suspecting USA. --- Yes I put him in town council but he is not on my town list.
Today, the interview and early log in of USA indicate a gambit is under going.
I'm the one who can either derail the train or let it go.
Argentina tried to push me days ago. Failed.
For my high pressure policy, I'd let the train go as fast. .. a little too fast if you ask me.
But what if USA is testing me instead? He bluffed knowing who is journalist.
However think about it,
If USA is mafia, this gambit is a declaration of victory. It is way to risky.
Then there is one way to know it, as the journalist.
First I claim replacement to shield USA from predicting my intention.
Then I claim escort so that USA doesn't have to face testimony.
By That I can Hijack two strong cards from his hand and put in my own hand.
Since USA is not on a concrete ground, then I can 'derail' the train to see his reaction.
Then if USA haste to hammer, I could either play along.
Then I claim the interview are truthful to see if USA did wrote a true interview.
USA did not. Apparently he did not block Argentina the night before.
Then based on log in, I deduce germany is blocked.
Surprisingly, USA likely blocked Switzerland. That means he is a town.
Therefore, I do not have to expose myself.
If killers come after me, I buy USA at least a night to block the killer.
At this point of game, escort is more important.
At the same time, Argentina must be laughting if he read my journal.
Good death! Great Drama! Much plot!
***********Claim: USA is a TOWN, Prove*********
Assumption: If there are only 2-3 mafias left, it is still too early to pull a 1-1 gambit.
Then inductively,
If USA is mafia, he will not pull a gambit with huge risk.
1.4 people are involved in the USA gambit, Kenya, the Journalist, Germany and Argentina.
Each of us has the power to pull a dead "friendly" fire upon USA.
USA must be able to pull this gambit with 100% confident that there are at least 3 town among us 4 people.
And USA think Argentina is the (only)Mafia, if the artical said all truth.
2.USA retract his claim. Though gambitting, USA retract his detective claim also bears huge risk.
Argentina is right that USA is not detective, but for USA's part, it is much easier stick with the det claim to the end.
3.Dilemma of quick Hammer.
Facing a gambit, USA might not want to wait more accident.
With me, he could have easily hammered Argentina at L-2, but he chooses to wait.
Note I'm not possessed. It is high risk to wait a ghost comes to claim wrong RB information.
Conclusion: USA isn't pulling a dumb play, it was great. USA is likely town.
------------------------
The key people who know something/Mafia/Night Action/Feedback:
Poland
Saudi Arabia
Spain
Russia
Costa Rica
Argentina
Suggestive strong Town credit:
Cyprus
Southkorea
Egypt
Libya
Japan
Colombia
Mexico
Ireland
Smart people, better watch out if betray:
Japan
Cyprus
Arabia
Suggestion of Lynch/Pressure: Costa Rica/Spain/Arabia
Costa Rica lied. It is now proven.
If Sweden flipped Mafia then CostaRica is clean.
But sweden flip Toxicologist.
Costa Rica can still be mafia.
His defense is now Broken.
The rule is: YoLo - You only lie once.
-------------------------
Spain
1. Didn't response to interview
2. the original accusor of germany
3. let germany go too easy to be true
-----------------------------
Arabia
He Managed to miss key voting.
His isolation is also a good strategy to immune my relationship analysis.
But this play is bad for mafia.
Basically, if Arabia is mafia, he is playing for town's favor.
Until he doesn't show up, doesn't vote
---------------------------
If libya was killed by mafia, then Libya died only because he consistently accusing Costa Rica.
If Costa Rica is a mafia, then who give Costa Rica Town vibe with no support by Day 3 are likely scums.
---------------------------
Suggestion of Stradegy change: Town Fags
Sitting on wrong train is FINE.
Give your reason and stop hide like a fag.
If you are a bad or newbie player, face it.
No one will blame you.
But if you are a genius and find there are already too god damn many is playing hide and seek already, don't join that mud and make things WORSE.
USE MY TOWN COUNCIL!
------------------------
-----------
Key Post worth reading again again and again:
China Day 2 #233
GreenLand Day 2 #304
Colombia Day 2#309
Iran Day 2 #308
Italy Day 3 #67 ******
South Korea Day 3 #72 ***
Russia Day 3 #373
England #381
Libya Day 3 #473
Colombia Day 4 #40
Libya Day 4 #72
Brazil Day 4 #262
Brazil Day 6 All-Day-Long
----------------
Possible Bonds and Disbond:
USA - Colombia
Mexico - Iran
USA X Kenya
USA X Sweden
Spain X Germany
The least want-to-see Mafia Team:
You really do not want the mafia team to be like those, so watch out.
Possible Team 1: USA(Witch) Germany(Lawyer/Tailor) (???)
Possible Team 2: Arabia(Lawyer/Tailor), Argentina(Drug Dealer), (???)
Serial Killer: Spain/Costa Rica(???)
Extra Information:
Some dead people are deleted.
It is not easy to understand but you know a fact:
Members of Organized crime will not act in one line, unless the victory is nailed.
If one person with high frequency in list below flip mafia, the other high frequency ones are likely clean.
Assume Ghost and Vent will keep previous owner's style.
Lurk/Hint:
Iran (Day 2)
India (Day 2)(day 3)(day 4)(day 5)(day 6)
Spain (Day 2)
Medium Troll/sheeple/Useless arguements:
Mexico (Day 1)
USA (Day 2)
German (Day 1) (Day 2)
Thailand (Day 1)
Marginal attachment(Some discussion, some vote, no solid):
Japan (Day 1)(Day 2)(Day 4)(Day 5)(Day 6)
German (Day 3)(Day 4)
Content/Clear sight(Not major target but made discussion):
Saudi Arabia (Day 1)(Day 3)(Day 4)
Argentina(****)
Japan (Day 3)(Day 4)(Day 5)(Day 6)
Colombia (Day 3)
Mexico (Day 3)(Day 4)
Kenya (Day 4)
Iran (Day 3)
Cyprus (Day 6)
Living/Director(Come with a clear goal and will):
Cyprus (Day 2)(Interview)(Day 4)(Day 5)
England(****)
Egypt (****)
Iran (Day 5)
Kenya (Day 5)
USA (Day 6)
Swing/tumble (be attacked but dodged by various strategy):
Norway (Day 1)
Cyprus (Day 1)
Spain (Day 1)
Kenya (Day 2)(Day 3)(Day 6)***Note Kenya is really good at dodge accusasion
Clear Cut Defend (Single Irreversible Claim):
Costa Rica (Day 4)
Germany (Day 5)
Kenya (Day 6)
USA (Day 6)
Argentina (Day 7)
tunnle:
Green Land(****)
Argentina (****)
Switzerland (Day 2)
Spain (Day 4)
Kenya (Day 5)
Iran (Day 4)(Day 6)
As per agreed, here is my last will.
1. Claims and codes:
I am Sheriff.
Didn't make a code because I've already put one in the Day 3 article.
My code: LBI -FM
Convert "LBI " to numbers.
"L" - 12, "B" - 2, "I" - 9, " " - 0
And you get 12290-FM, which refers to Cyprus!
www.sc2mafia.com/forum/member.php/12290-FM-Cyprus
----------------------------------------------------------------
2. Night actions and feedback:
N1 Targeted France | roleblocked
N2 Canada | neutral, interviewed
N3 Argentina | witched, mafia
N4 USA | witched, mafia
N5 Japan | town
N6 Brazil | town
N7 USA
FM Brazil - Suspiciously buddying me, USA and Libya. Gives twisted logic and intentionally trying to confuse town with false mechanics. But town, either South Korea type player or Serial Killer (SK-type player or SK lol). He seemed to be happy to be called ghost. Hmm... Argentina wanted him dead, perhaps mafia knew something.
FM Costa Rica - Sweden has a point to raise suspicion of her. But strange that Sweden turned up possessed the next day and flipped Toxicologist. In any case, insisted with codes, so likely town. But codes consisting of multiple short words can be easily faked. Dunno what she is thinking.
FM Cyprus - Me!
FM Germany - Still suspect that he is a poisoner. Like hinting to his scum buddies that he is ally...
FM India - Town or scum I hate him. Prolly witched into him.
FM Iran - Probably masoned by now. Volunteered to prove Greenland. Digging his own grave if he is scum when ML claims.
FM Japan - Town PR. Since he is town, I think that scum don't think that he is a threat.
FM Kenya - Playing like a BP and thinking like a BP. Trust him more than Germany.
FM Mexico - Stupid scum if claims Citizen to be recruited. More effort please!
FM Saudi Arabia - Still remember him, Poland and Colombia trying to get me lynched over some trolling. Prolly scum.
FM Spain - Voted correctly everytime. Difficult to call him scum.
FM Switzerland - Fake claim seeking replacement? No idea really. Serial Killer?
FM Thailand - Another useless person. If not Doctor-type PR, prolly scum.
FM USA - Seemed to fake claim roleblocked Day 1 and 2. Didn't vote Argentina too. Sigh should have checked him earlier. At least will know if he is Corrupt or Mafia Journalist.
----------------------------------------------------------------
3. Notable notes:
D1. Argentina looks wise. France and Canada trolled around with me. China getting angry. Spoilsports should know that Day 1 reads are very useful. At least to me, it's less tainted by lies and easier to find scum.
D2. Colombia, Poland and Saudi Arabia might be scum. Japan is a newbie. Found out who China is! He always see through me. If I die tonight he is scum. Some scum are within those who didn't vote. China probably town then. Egypt likely Lookout, acting shady though. More lynches tomorrow hopefully.
D3. Japan witched. Found out who Egypt is and he is not sharing info >:(. Not lookout then. Claimed to be in chat with Kenya? Stupid Russia and USA called me Lookout, telling scum to kill me. Prolly evil neutrals. Stupid town saying South Korea is scum, sigh. Poland is likely Student under Argentina. Argentina maybe another Sheriff.
D4. Sigh witched yesterday. China died. Now South Korea. Game seems boring now. Stupid people saying South Korea spamming. Mafia has at least 2 members left, realistically 3. Terrible quality of scumhunting in daychat, else the real towns are lurking. Tough job. I don't have the motivation to carry them, if they don't bother reading and thinking.
D5. Headache strikes again. And stupid conference. Hope can contribute. Shouldn't have hammered. Poland taunted me who didn't vote him? Not Jester but might be controlled by an expert Vent. And forgot about Ghost.
D6. Bla bla. Forgot everything lazy to reread.
D7. Short day. Scum Argentina waiting for me to sleep before posting lol.
D8
----------------------------------------------------------------
4. Possible role list:
Living
Hidden Norseman (Tailor)
Hidden Anglo-Saxon (Mason Leader)
Hidden Anglo-Saxon (Doctor?)
Hidden Anglo-Saxon (Sheriff)
Hidden Anglo-Saxon (Journalist?)
Hidden Anglo-Saxon (Escort?)
Hidden Anglo-Saxon (Intern?)
Hidden Anglo-Saxon (Mason)
Hidden Anglo-Saxon (Mason?)
Hidden Non-Town (Witch?)
Hidden Any (Serial Killer)
Hidden Any (???)
Hidden Any (Citizen?)
Hidden Any (Citizen?)
Dead
Ragnar Lodbrok (Hidden Norseman) (Disguiser)
Hidden Norseman (Consigliere) - Australia
Hidden Norseman (Beguiler) - Greenland
King Aelle (Hidden Anglo-Saxon) (Mayor) - Italy
Hidden Anglo-Saxon (Detective) - Pakistan
Hidden Anglo-Saxon (Doctor) - China
Hidden Anglo-Saxon (Blacksmith) - Norway
Hidden Anglo-Saxon (Vigilante) - South Korea
Hidden Anglo-Saxon (Sheriff) - Egypt
Hidden Anglo-Saxon (Mason) - Libya
Hidden Anglo-Saxon (Mason) - Russia
Hidden Anglo-Saxon (Citizen) - France
Hidden Anglo-Saxon (Citizen) - Fiji
Hidden Anglo-Saxon (Citizen) - Colombia
Hidden Anglo-Saxon (Citizen) - Ireland
Hidden Non-Town (Ghost) - New Zealand
Hidden Non-Town (Ninja) - Canada
Hidden Any (Toxicologist) - Sweden
Hidden Anglo-Saxon (Operator) - England
Hidden Non-Town (Ghost) - Poland
----------------------------------------------------------------
5. Advice:
Lynch the lurkers. And beware of Cult!
first of all, here is my code for lw (created d2 page 9 with 50ppp):
MATRIXOPERATIONANDINTEGRAL
CALCULATIONSANDEXPONENTIAL
PBFUDJPJNGOMJCRFLTXBYSAABX
night 1 i targeted canada. i thought he's scum, because of his d1 posts.
unfortunately he was roleblocked, so i couldn't gain any information. seems the roleblock was real though, because he actually visited no one. anyway, i won't target him again, because the roleblock should give us enough information. i think the roleblock was made by an escort.
night 2 i'm going for fm mexico. he visited no one. pretty sure he's a citizen, so i prevented his lynch d3
night 3 i thought about targeting south korea, just for the risk he might be an sk who disguises but then i decided to just trust him.
this night i instead went for poland as i must see if he's legit or not. poland targeted cyprus. i hinted at this in my #121 post on d4 by asking poland what he thinks about cyprus.
either way this made it pretty likely poland is a real sheriff or a witch (or a jester given his behaviour). i wasn't going to lynch a possible sheriff on d4 for the chance of getting the witch, a rather low priority. on d5 i supported the lynch because i saw we had to decide between poland and germany, though i'd rather lynched sweden but that was not necessary. glad you could lynch him d5 and not germany when i was already asleep. many of us including me made one wrong assumption: we assumed poland would do what's best for his win condition. we never accounted poland to just be dumb and go on a suicide mission.
night 4 i went for sweden
he was on my scum list early game, then i removed him temporary but on d4 i added him again. he targeted lybia who died, so sweden is surely a neutral killer or mafia who killed. funny that the actually flipped poisoner, that means lybia was not only killed but also poisoned.
night 5: i think cyprus is a neutral killer, he was blocked n1 when there was a missing kill. everyone else who was blocked n1 is already dead apart from usa but he claimed blocked again next night when all kills went through. also he was witched twice, maybe poland found a neutral killer here.
i was ghosted (is specifically said by a GHOST) this night/the following day (i'm glad you got sweden the pretender, nice job)
when i got access to my account back, i received feedback that cyprus killed russia. that means he probably lied about his rb n1 or it was drugged.
either way, he is probably sk so if you read this lynch him ASAP because high chance he disguises. but if the mafia choosed to send someone else than argentina in this night for the kill, he can also be mafia. if he is sk i claim mvp for finding poisoner and sk, making the best out of my night action as possible
night 6: kenya seems legit bulletproof to me. especially now that we know germany lied about being bulletproof. so i guess i will confirm or clear one of my suspects. going for ireland tonight. visited no one, too bad he died, couldnt see that coming
night 7: going for cyprus again. too high chance he is sk and disguises, because many ppl already suspect him. as expected he killed again, brazil this time. didnt disguise though
mafia roles:
beguiler (dead)
consig (dead)
consort (dead)
disguiser (dead)
drug dealer (n1 rb drug n2 witch drug n3 ? drug n4 witched n5 ?)
maybe one more maf (possibly journalist is mafia)
neutrals: witch, sk, toxi, ghost, ninja
hidden roles:
hidden non town: toxi, ninja, witch, ghost (all confirmed by graveyard)
hidden any: 1-2 mafias, sk, maybe some other neutrals, rest town
egypt was poisoned n3. he would mention it, so he was ghosted. looking back, i saw he made a code in #487 d3, in which he put some effort after my advice. he never solved it. he didn't just forget it, he deliberately didnt which is shown in #382 d4, where he created a new code without solving the last. wonder why he didnt write a lw. but i figured out now that if you're ghosted you won't receive feedback on your main account, you have to wait. so egypt didnt know he was poisoned and couldnt tell us in lw. same for his n3 feedback
the norway lynch was really unfortunate. take it as a lesson to not make such lies as town. i see it as lie even if only meant as joke because he never retracted it.
anyway, it should have given us a lot of information though. just compare it to the greenland train.
also guys there is no vent. there is just ONE ghost.
anyway, so it can't happen again that someone makes a code and we don't realize that he never solved it, i will now take notes of everyone who creates a code and cross them off the list if they solve it (i started this d4)
i wasn't posting so much at start, because i had to stay alive. given that sheriff almost can't find shit, i am the most important role probably, especially because the other detective died n1
i can find all killing roles, many mafia and evil roles and, most importantly, i can tell who of the lurkers are just citizens.
ppl scum reading me after the norway lynch was some kind of life assurance.
the sheriff gambit was a win/win
i felt like i had to claim d5 because i feared lawyer (because fucking lybia couldnt submit lw) but didnt want to so i can get more information.
either you just lynched sweden (which i doubted) or you lynched germany and in this case i ensured to survive the night, unless they're dumb enough to kill me. they sure don't think i'm really sheriff and killing me just makes it clear to everybody sweden is scum
the results i give you were all true, apart from egypt, i actually checked poland but couldn't figure out his alignment so i couldn't give a sheriff result and made up egypt result
now turns out sweden wasn't mafia. anyway, this wrong result ensured my survival.
d7 i would've revealed but there was already a solid lead.
in case it helps you, my scum and town list
town list:
tier 1 (pretty sure):
me
mexico
usa
tier 2 (probably):
germany
switzerland
kenya
tier 3 (rather town but not sure):
spain
japan
scum list:
tier 1 (sure):
cyprus
tier 2 (probably):
thailand
tier 3 (rather scum but not sure):
india
iran
unsure: saudi arabia
night 8 going for iran
Ok fine you guys win. I tried. I was going to commit death in a more serving way to our country by raining down with planes and bombs but alas that wasn't meant to be. Oil prices gonna be hella high now.
Hey Ghost, would you mind ghosting Iran tonight? K thx.
Alright, so I was thinking about a hit list for night actions. Never really posted one but I’ll jot it down here.
1) restipulation
2) eurybia
3) silverise
4) tenser
5) propagandize
6) unattributive
Try to get argo, patroness, monument, and calendar lynched if possible. If someone accidentally gets confirmed, kill them before the rest of the list (maybe except for the first 3). We can’t be running around with confirmed people amuck now can we? ;D
I learned quite a bit, though I have to admit I've been getting better through the progression of the game. Fun playing with you guys, I’ll sit and watch on the sidelines and see how this plays out.
Also, to answer the question from last night. I believe the latter, cofactor.
SAUDIA ARABIA IS SCUM. ABSOLUTELY LYNCH HIM.
classic scum not checking their day accounts. CLASSIC.
Night 1:
N/A
Night 2:
N/A
Night 3:
N/A
Night 4:
N/A
Night 5:
N/A
Night 6:
You were witched last night.
Night 7:
You were possessed last night.
Last Will:
I = ESCORT
NIGHT ONE - ENGLAND
NIGHT TWO - ITALY
NIGHT THREE - CANADA
NIGHT FOUR - ARGENTINA
NIGHT FIVE - SWEDEN
NIGHT SIX - ARGENTINA, redirected to thailand maybe?
NIGHT SEVEN - SAUDIA ARABIA, redirected to mexico probably
NIGHT EIGHT - SAUDIA ARABIA, redirected to Costa Rica probably.
Wasn't actually blocked n1 or n2, but i was witched night 5. didn't say anything about it.
i'm fairly certain it was real, unless theres another escort, which i think there is now.
LIST OF TOWN TO SCUM
real reads
COSTA RICA - NEED LEADS. he was dead wrong on sweden. probably ghosted though
GERMANY - i still believe his flag is good enough defense, for now.
edit. not after rushing that lynch
INDIA - MAYBE CITIZEN? MAYBE. not sure
IRAN - seems pretty smart, but hesistant to vote toxicologist. could be bad
JAPAN - dumb town. sorry.
KENYA - don't believe this guys a bp, but also dont' believe theres 2 bps
MEXICO - town
SAUDIA ARABIA - SCUM
SPAIN - reads town
SWITZERLAND - town
THAILAND - LURKY SCUM
order of lynches:
SAUDIA ARABIA then maybe spain/thailand or germany?
Egypt was lawyered or he's this sites worst sheriff ever. sincerely doubt theres a tailor, so you can do a role list analysis.
it's very interesting that thailand claimed blocked two nights in a row. THIS NEEDS TO BE FOLLOWED UP ON.
also check vote patterns for scum voting analysis
Day 1
Libya: Argentina, Poland, Egypt, England
New Zealand: Canada
Japan: Cyprus South Korea, Ireland, Greenland, New Zealand, Thailand
Cyprus: France
USA: China
Poland: Saudi Arabia
Russia: Germany
South Korea: Japan
NONE: Costa Rica, India, Iran, Kenya, Mexico, Spain, Switzerland, USA
Day 2
Greenland - Egypt, China, Poland, Colombia, Russia, Mexico, Libya, Japan, Iran, Ireland, Germany, England, Switzerland, Fiji, Italy, Costa Rica, Spain
China - Argentina
Japan - Canada
India - South Korea
Egypt - Saudi Arabia, USA
NONE: Germany, India, Kenya, Switzerland, Thailand
Day 3
Norway - Russia, Egypt, South Korea, USA, Kenya, Sweden, Libya, Costa Rica, Mexico,
Fiji, Germany, Thailand, Ireland, Japan, Brazil
South Korea - Iran, Colombia, Poland, Norway, Argentina
Canada - Cyprus, France
Mexico - England
Germany- Spain
NONE: India, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland
Day 4
Egypt – Poland, Japan, USA
Poland – Russia, Egypt, Fiji, Argentina, Germany, Spain
Costa Rica – Libya, Brazil
Fiji – Columbia, Saudi Arabia, Kenya
Libya – Mexico
Sweden – Costa Rica
Germany – Ireland
India – Cyprus
NONE: India, Iran, Mexico, Switzerland, Thailand
Day 5
Poland -: Sweden, Russia, Cyprus, USA, Germany, Japan, Argentina, Iran, Mexico, Spain, Ireland
Germany - Kenya, Saudi Arabia, Thailand
Sweden - Costa Rica, Colombia
NONE: India, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland
Day 6
Kenya - Argentina, Sweden
Sweden -Iran, Spain, USA, Mexico, Germany, Japan, Brazil, Ireland
Thailand - Cyprus
Germany - Thailand
NONE: Costa Rica, India, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, USA
Day 7
Argentina - Saudi Arabia, Iran, Cyprus, Spain, Costa Rica, Thailand, Kenya, Germany
Kenya - Brazil, Argentina
NONE: India, Japan, Mexico, Switzerland, USA
Day 8:
Cyprus - Japan, Saudi Arabia, Germany, Costa Rica, Kenya, Thailand, Mexico
Thailand - Iran
NONE: India, Spain, Switzerland, USA
someone color code this to get some codes.
--night 9 appendum
blocking kenya, don't think theres a witch anymore
i think kenya and argentina are the one greenland was refering to, as needing to work together. they were arguing over tailoring
i got saudi arabia because argentina, greenland, and england all talked about tailoring, which is, i think, what they wanted us to think from the beginning, to help spam up the chat.
also, there are actually 2 more mafia, not one, not sure what that last one is. but there's gotta be a lawyer in there somewhere. might still be a witch
at the last second, i changed my block to india, still think kenya should be lynched. if no ones willing to read/work, just lynch kenya.
Powered by vBulletin® Copyright © 2024 vBulletin Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.