Forum Mafia GM
April 29th, 2014, 06:00 PM
FM XXI: Day 8
FM Brazil was found dead this morning.
His role was Journalist.
FM Brazil left a last will:
TL;DR
---------------------------
About
Last will and lynch of Argentina:
Mafia already know who is SK.
Their suggestion toward SK is about
1. Make sure no friendly fire between SK and Mafia
2. Gain + KPN
3. If true then it basically mean the last few mafia are medium active.
So based on activity(Quality of posts):
Most: USA, Cyprus, Mexico, Iran
Medium: Arabia, Japan, Kenya, Costa Rica, Germany
Low: Thailand,
Lower: India, Switzerland
A word to the wise serial Killer:
Sk have no idea who the last mafia is.
Once cooperate with Mafia, sk is at a lower ground:
Look this table of mafia's action if pressed: (mafia action)/(SK action)
Table of prisoner SK(Press) SK(hide)
Mafia(choose to out SK) OutSK/Gambit OutSK/Gambit
Mafia(choose to hide SK) Gambit/Gambit Gambit/Gambit
It means out sk is the dominate strategy for Mafia, despite what SK would do.
On the other side, all strategy to SK is indifferent.
And for SK once pressed, the only way out is to gambit
I hope the SK watch out what he is dealing with. There is no long term partnership with mafia.
Especially they know who you are while you don't know their number and roles.
However, you must notice if someone purposely protecting you. Those are the ones you want to think about.
------------------------
FM Brazil is replaced in night 3.
The last will is written by FM Brazil.
Credibility: FML
Value: Infinite Useless
Code: X doesn't matter. It was about Chinese reminder theorem.
FM Brazil is a twitching nutty Chinese bastard.
Warning: Lynch a neutral doesn't get you ANY town credit in my analysis
Action:
(Until day 7, all interviewed targets are alive. That is : Free Fullretard Passport is created)
Day 1: Arabia*** - No Response
Day 2: Cyprus
Day 3: Mexico
Day 4: Spain - No Response
Day 5: Switzerland
Day 6: USA
Day 7: Arabia - agian
----Night 3---
Don't like Norway anyway.
The previous Brazil is probably frustrated.
----Day 4----
Italy trusted Poland.
Italy died.
There is a drug dealer, who used to drug people with "attacked & healed"/"witched" to discredit them.
It is possible that Poland was drugged, so I lied healing him to shield him as much.
--------Night 4--------
"Targets are notified if they are successfully poisoned."
Bye Egypt.
Egypt lied about didn't check greenland. He did check greenland.
Why lie?
It gives him more space to accuse people.
And you fucktards wants all liars to pay the price?
Aint all liars are evil.
So some people is secretly discredit your townies. DO NOT FALL IN THAT SHIT TRAP.
I highly doubt there is a mason, but I just ride the tide and use masons to shield people I like.
----------Night 5-------------
Poland is non-mafia, as I guessed.
So he may guessed out few mafias from witch reporting and such.
Germany claimed a role to protect himself.
------Night 6------
Fuck, don't want toxicology to die but Sweden you are such a loser.
USA didn't check me. I bluffed.
USA said this in day 5:"Why isn't Brazil dead? He is a fucking doctor"
USA went to Germany Night 5.
---Day 7----
Ireland is dead. I guess killer is trying to hunt down the Journalist. My time is short.
I have been suspecting USA. --- Yes I put him in town council but he is not on my town list.
Today, the interview and early log in of USA indicate a gambit is under going.
I'm the one who can either derail the train or let it go.
Argentina tried to push me days ago. Failed.
For my high pressure policy, I'd let the train go as fast. .. a little too fast if you ask me.
But what if USA is testing me instead? He bluffed knowing who is journalist.
However think about it,
If USA is mafia, this gambit is a declaration of victory. It is way to risky.
Then there is one way to know it, as the journalist.
First I claim replacement to shield USA from predicting my intention.
Then I claim escort so that USA doesn't have to face testimony.
By That I can Hijack two strong cards from his hand and put in my own hand.
Since USA is not on a concrete ground, then I can 'derail' the train to see his reaction.
Then if USA haste to hammer, I could either play along.
Then I claim the interview are truthful to see if USA did wrote a true interview.
USA did not. Apparently he did not block Argentina the night before.
Then based on log in, I deduce germany is blocked.
Surprisingly, USA likely blocked Switzerland. That means he is a town.
Therefore, I do not have to expose myself.
If killers come after me, I buy USA at least a night to block the killer.
At this point of game, escort is more important.
At the same time, Argentina must be laughting if he read my journal.
Good death! Great Drama! Much plot!
***********Claim: USA is a TOWN, Prove*********
Assumption: If there are only 2-3 mafias left, it is still too early to pull a 1-1 gambit.
Then inductively,
If USA is mafia, he will not pull a gambit with huge risk.
1.4 people are involved in the USA gambit, Kenya, the Journalist, Germany and Argentina.
Each of us has the power to pull a dead "friendly" fire upon USA.
USA must be able to pull this gambit with 100% confident that there are at least 3 town among us 4 people.
And USA think Argentina is the (only)Mafia, if the artical said all truth.
2.USA retract his claim. Though gambitting, USA retract his detective claim also bears huge risk.
Argentina is right that USA is not detective, but for USA's part, it is much easier stick with the det claim to the end.
3.Dilemma of quick Hammer.
Facing a gambit, USA might not want to wait more accident.
With me, he could have easily hammered Argentina at L-2, but he chooses to wait.
Note I'm not possessed. It is high risk to wait a ghost comes to claim wrong RB information.
Conclusion: USA isn't pulling a dumb play, it was great. USA is likely town.
------------------------
The key people who know something/Mafia/Night Action/Feedback:
Poland
Saudi Arabia
Spain
Russia
Costa Rica
Argentina
Suggestive strong Town credit:
Cyprus
Southkorea
Egypt
Libya
Japan
Colombia
Mexico
Ireland
Smart people, better watch out if betray:
Japan
Cyprus
Arabia
Suggestion of Lynch/Pressure: Costa Rica/Spain/Arabia
Costa Rica lied. It is now proven.
If Sweden flipped Mafia then CostaRica is clean.
But sweden flip Toxicologist.
Costa Rica can still be mafia.
His defense is now Broken.
The rule is: YoLo - You only lie once.
-------------------------
Spain
1. Didn't response to interview
2. the original accusor of germany
3. let germany go too easy to be true
-----------------------------
Arabia
He Managed to miss key voting.
His isolation is also a good strategy to immune my relationship analysis.
But this play is bad for mafia.
Basically, if Arabia is mafia, he is playing for town's favor.
Until he doesn't show up, doesn't vote
---------------------------
If libya was killed by mafia, then Libya died only because he consistently accusing Costa Rica.
If Costa Rica is a mafia, then who give Costa Rica Town vibe with no support by Day 3 are likely scums.
---------------------------
Suggestion of Stradegy change: Town Fags
Sitting on wrong train is FINE.
Give your reason and stop hide like a fag.
If you are a bad or newbie player, face it.
No one will blame you.
But if you are a genius and find there are already too god damn many is playing hide and seek already, don't join that mud and make things WORSE.
USE MY TOWN COUNCIL!
------------------------
-----------
Key Post worth reading again again and again:
China Day 2 #233
GreenLand Day 2 #304
Colombia Day 2#309
Iran Day 2 #308
Italy Day 3 #67 ******
South Korea Day 3 #72 ***
Russia Day 3 #373
England #381
Libya Day 3 #473
Colombia Day 4 #40
Libya Day 4 #72
Brazil Day 4 #262
Brazil Day 6 All-Day-Long
----------------
Possible Bonds and Disbond:
USA - Colombia
Mexico - Iran
USA X Kenya
USA X Sweden
Spain X Germany
The least want-to-see Mafia Team:
You really do not want the mafia team to be like those, so watch out.
Possible Team 1: USA(Witch) Germany(Lawyer/Tailor) (???)
Possible Team 2: Arabia(Lawyer/Tailor), Argentina(Drug Dealer), (???)
Serial Killer: Spain/Costa Rica(???)
Extra Information:
Some dead people are deleted.
It is not easy to understand but you know a fact:
Members of Organized crime will not act in one line, unless the victory is nailed.
If one person with high frequency in list below flip mafia, the other high frequency ones are likely clean.
Assume Ghost and Vent will keep previous owner's style.
Lurk/Hint:
Iran (Day 2)
India (Day 2)(day 3)(day 4)(day 5)(day 6)
Spain (Day 2)
Medium Troll/sheeple/Useless arguements:
Mexico (Day 1)
USA (Day 2)
German (Day 1) (Day 2)
Thailand (Day 1)
Marginal attachment(Some discussion, some vote, no solid):
Japan (Day 1)(Day 2)(Day 4)(Day 5)(Day 6)
German (Day 3)(Day 4)
Content/Clear sight(Not major target but made discussion):
Saudi Arabia (Day 1)(Day 3)(Day 4)
Argentina(****)
Japan (Day 3)(Day 4)(Day 5)(Day 6)
Colombia (Day 3)
Mexico (Day 3)(Day 4)
Kenya (Day 4)
Iran (Day 3)
Cyprus (Day 6)
Living/Director(Come with a clear goal and will):
Cyprus (Day 2)(Interview)(Day 4)(Day 5)
England(****)
Egypt (****)
Iran (Day 5)
Kenya (Day 5)
USA (Day 6)
Swing/tumble (be attacked but dodged by various strategy):
Norway (Day 1)
Cyprus (Day 1)
Spain (Day 1)
Kenya (Day 2)(Day 3)(Day 6)***Note Kenya is really good at dodge accusasion
Clear Cut Defend (Single Irreversible Claim):
Costa Rica (Day 4)
Germany (Day 5)
Kenya (Day 6)
USA (Day 6)
Argentina (Day 7)
tunnle:
Green Land(****)
Argentina (****)
Switzerland (Day 2)
Spain (Day 4)
Kenya (Day 5)
Iran (Day 4)(Day 6)
A news article was published:
Hey, thanks for visiting me Journalist. I had a feeling I was going to get visited eventually, but I digress. From the patterns from what you’ve been visiting, I think you’re town Journalist so I feel comfortable revealing here. I’m Italy’s Student, I’m sorry I can’t really help with info or anything. We didn’t talk that much in night chat to be honest, he wasn’t the most active. But he did say a few things. Main suspicion at the time was that he was really skeptical on how Costa Rica lead that mislynch.
Code: AICLQAKPWWT.
Anyway, onto day speculation and such. It’s frustrating because there isn't any town leader that we know for sure is town. Whoever killed Colombia knew what they were doing.? Also, I’m surprised that India nor Switzerland posted yesterday and they didn't get modkilled.
Brazil’s confirmed non-mafian at least. Considering that Argentina basically claimed mafian in his LW (of course unless mafia has an architect which they’re using to communicate and tell the EN otherwise. But honestly how many more mafians can we expect to have.) and that Argentina said for the SK to kill him. If he shows up unkilled today then I’d bet that one of the people roleblocked are as such. Escort, you know who you are, I say claim if someone you blocked doesn't claim as such in this event and we have a pretty much guaranteed SK kill. I can’t figure out who “restipulation” is, though considering from what Argentina said it might be a less active town.
Reads:
FM Brazil - While I see Colombia’s points from his LW, and I agree with them, I think he’s been acting quite a bit more town as of late to make up for it. And also the fact that Argentina cleared up for us that Brazil’s not mafian.
FM Costa Rica - I don’t like how she decided to fake claim Sheriff then run with it. I know she did it originally as a troll, but still. They also seem pretty focused on their own agenda rather than the collective one, which is a bit concerning. I’m curious to why he’s suspicious of Cyprus though. Please answer this Costa Rica. She also seemed a little robotic to me, though I get a feeling she's town, that mafia wouldn't do risky moves like that. Might just be me though. Overall, I can't get a good read on her.
FM Cyprus - I read him town overall. I feel like he tries to actively contribute when he can and he doesn’t really try to make a fool out of day. Which I appreciate.
FM Germany - I’ve been really iffy on Germany for a while. I was dead certain he was mafian for a little bit, then my attention got focused elsewhere. But I’m not sure on his BP claim. Nor do I like he literally just jumped in to lock the lynch. I feel like we need to utilize day as much as possible, and letting half of it just go like that isn’t something I’m for. Also, the Nazi trolling. Gah that’s annoying and distracting. Overall read is I think he's scum.
FM India - Inactive, and when he is, all he does is troll. . He’s on my list of “wtf you’re inactive” along with Switzerland. Hard to make a read due to that reason, but if I can glean any role from it it's probably mafian or something.
FM Iran - Town. He seems like the most leaderlike guy at the moment, and he seems logically sound.
FM Japan - It seems like to me Japan would be one of those guys who would make a scum slip if he was scum. He has stepped it up though, so I’d say town all things considered.
FM Kenya - I probably buy the BP claim from him more than Germany, and I get the reason he disliked the idea of a Poland lynch there at the end. Also the fact that Argentina, who’s mafia, pit himself against Kenya makes me think differently from the rest about Kenya. Though it’s hard to ignore how he handled the lynching of Poland on the next day and how he wanted to lynch Japan seemed a bit scummy if you ask me. So I’m torn on him to be honest. I see both sides here.
FM Mexico - I’d say he’s been lurking now adays, and I don’t really remember him contributing much. Regardless, I’m getting a towny feel from him.
FM Saudi Arabia - Overall he seems pretty town like to me. Kind of inactive lurky, but I feel like he contributes when he’s active.
FM Spain - Similar to Arabia, though I feel like he’s a little robotic at times.
FM Switzerland - “wtf you’re inactive”. I feel like he’s never really taken a stand that much, so I see him as potential scum.
FM Thailand - If he’s lying about the RBs, then I’m assuming anti-town. Otherwise we have another role blocker somewhere in the mix. But he trolls all day. And does nothing. He’s just really annoying to me.
FM USA – He’s seemed to up his play as of late and not afraid to take a stand. I’m going with town.
Roles List:
Living Players:
Graveyard:
Ragnar Lodbrok (Hidden Norseman)
Hidden Norseman
Hidden Norseman
Hidden Norseman
King Aelle (Hidden Anglo-Saxon)
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Non-Town
Hidden Non-Town
Hidden Non-Town
Hidden Non-Town
Hidden Any
Hidden Any
Hidden Any
Hidden Any
Hidden Any
FM Costa Rica
FM Cyprus
FM Germany
FM India
FM Iran
FM Japan
FM Kenya
FM Mexico
FM Saudi Arabia
FM Spain
FM Switzerland
FM Thailand
FM USA
FM Australia - Consigliere - Died Night 1
FM Pakistan - Detective - Died Night 1
FM Greenland - Beguiler - Sacrificed Day 2
FM China - Doctor - Died Night 2
FM New Zealand - Ghost - Died Night 2
FM Norway - Blacksmith - Sacrificed Day 3
FM England - Consort - Died Day 3
FM Canada - Ninja - Died Night 3
FM South Korea - Vigilante - Died Night 3
FM Italy - Mayor (King Aelle) - Died Night 3
FM France - Citizen - Died Night 3
FM Egypt - Sheriff - Died Day 4
FM Libya - Mason - Died Night 4
FM Poland - Witch - Sacrificed Day 5
FM Fiji - Citizen - Mod killed Day 5
FM Colombia - Citizen - Died Night 5
FM Russia - Mason - Died Night 5
FM Sweden - Toxicologist - Sacrificed Day 6
FM Ireland - Citizen - Died Night 6
FM Argentina - Disguiser (Ragnar Lodbrok) - Sacrificed Day 7
FM Brazil - Journalist - Died Night 7
Last Wills:
You think you are all safe, but alas, the Vikings have arrived. All hail the arrival of the noble savages!
We shall plunder your towns and take thy women.
But enough RPing. May the town be as barren as my icy lands. Get ready to burn.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wonderful job Egypt. Spot on work there. I hope it was worth it
Evil Neutrals! Proclamation for ya. We can win with everyone except the dirty town and meddling cult. So we want to win with you if we can. Don't waste your night actions on Egypt. Trust us, we know what we're doing and you can consider that problem sorted.
Cult, if we don't win you guys need to. Here's a head start, you've got some confirmed masons running amuck. Don't let them get away with it. Check out FMXX, it's better to coordinate until the town is put down.
We have decided to not claim feedback relevant to you if we get it to signal to you that we're with you. Ex: doused, we won't claim it, and you know we're on your side.
To my fuck buddies:
sorry troops I'm outta here, but use logic (especially concerning bouncy) and you know what to do.
blackmailer sticking around before not sticking around is a good idea per what I said in night chat
don't get fooled by an anteater, it's hella bad if we do. let george/unmarshalled/etc. deal with it
try to figure out who smoke is and coordinate if possible
duke needs to be eliminated asap, along with replumed, argo, biarticulate, and knap - if these players are who I think they are these are extremely high priority all else held equal
oceanic, castilla should work more together. fraud, demobbing, and misdating are in a good place right now
use appetizer to your advantage, especially as it ties in to the proclamation
greenwood should get a greenlight soon, use it
tossing out picks is useful for drafting later
corvus might be more likely than reforgeable
All non-town, even if we don't individually win, we do at some level if we fuck the town. Let the reign of scum continue from FM XX!
Peace out bitches. I'll enjoy my popcorn from the sidelines.
I'm doctor
n1: no action, didnt heal in that clusterfuck
n2: egypt
IMPORTANT: HEALING DOES STOP CULT CONVERT I HAVE ASKED THIS BUT IT DOES NOT DO +1
final read list:
plz note that if i say if they are unaligned that they are not town to me but are unlikely to be aligned with Greenland the the rest of the mafia
FM Argentina: gut town
FM Brazil: gut scum
FM Canada: gut scum
FM China: dead doc
FM Colombia: we will know soon enough, something is irking though
FM Costa Rica: havent seen
FM Cyprus: after further revew, i am actualy leaning scum
FM Egypt: sheriff
FM England: gut town
FM Fiji: unaligned with greenland
FM France: replaced in....
FM Germany: haven seen much
FM India: lurker galore
FM Iran: guts say hes pr, tonw or not is to be decided
FM Ireland: gut town
FM Italy: mafia scum, post 26 and 55, if he flips scum it would confirm a DDer
FM Japan: student most likely
FM Kenya: seriously if this guy is town in any form, he does truly suck
FM Libya: mason claim
FM Mexico: I'm pegging him scum, he seems too "IDGAF" to be town and is playing the apathetic card
FM New Zealand: guts say scum
FM Norway: ?
FM Poland: I'm gonna rule him netural, but not evil
FM Russia: not a mafia scum if Italy flips mafia
FM Saudi Arabia: I'm going to give her town
FM South Korea: Scum/neutral based off how day 2 went and interactions with greenland, mafia, most likely
FM Spain: i am going to say unaligned with greenland
FM Sweden: ?
FM Switzerland: guts would say neutral
FM Thailand : ?
FM USA: gut neutral
Ugh looks like that poison was real. Yay. I'm town Operator which is why I was so certain Greenland was scum yesterday. I acted like I couldn't be roleblocked ("someone tried to roleblock me") so that I wouldn't get roleblocked again. I targetted Colombia and Saudi hoping that Saudi would shoot himself as a result.
As for reads... Mexico is probably scum, Canada/Saudi/Argentina etc are scum. My reads haven't really changed since my giants reads lists was back in the first half of D3. Poland is probably legit though and I'm less confident in my Egypt townread. There's probably scum in the lurkers.
Of course I get rbed N1 and the one guy I target is a Doctor -which could have potentially been quite useful to either side-.
Getting Ninja was a blessing. Should have paid a bit more attention to day chat to possibly have prevented myself from dying. Oh well.
Speciar code 1: r
Speciar code 2: Real Exempt Noel Maroon Tilapia
(Except for the word Real, there are no L's; Maroon Tirapia = Red Herring)
Speciar code 3: South East Asia
n1 FM Austraria
n2 FM New Zearand
n3 FM Canada
I don't regret defendering Greenrand cause friction = more post anarysis. Jk I do because I brew my shot at MVP. Rooting for FM Corombia
Shot Austraria for braming real rife, Shot New Zearand for being the king of active rurkers and being super ambivarent about votes. A real Town wourd cast his votes much ress roboticarry. Arso, Day 1 Post #206. I understand that shooting India wourd probabry prove my rore better. I'm arso uncomfortabre at how both of my targets are Oceania.
Shot Canada. Fuck the British territories.
ENGRAND IS MOST DEFINITERY CONSORT. Isn't it too convenient that he received a suit and poisoned on the same day? And he craimed rorebrocked on D2? And he never craimed Operator? And he active rurked? And his rast wirr was ass?
RIP Norway you rittle bitch, but it was you or me.
I had unrimited charges.
If I'm not a vigirante in the graveyard I've been tairored
"I onry regret that I have but one rife to give for my country" - Nathan Hare, South Korean Patriot
I have nothing to say that I haven't already said except to reveal my code, maybe it will clue you on my real role. Good luck in your scum hunting!
Message: By my blood and by my death, I curse you all! As I die, so shall you all!
Key: Shadows of Darkness
To My Dearest of Comrades,
So I was actually ghosted on Day 5, which was really frustrating, considering the circumstances that the Ghost used to exploit how I played to be a detriment to the Town. Oh well, I guess what's done is done. I was a Citizen as I claimed.
One thing I want to bring up in my last will right now is the conversation between Brazil and Argentina at the end of the day. I picked up on this after reading the day over on my normal account, and I noticed this string of comments that really struck a wrong note with me.
I assume you are not the same Colombia.
Right. That's why I think it could be a ghost who try to get things done today, but fearing if Germany actually flip mafia.
First off, there are two things wrong with this. First off, he already said I probably wasn't the same person in the first quote, meaning that the theory stated in the second quote would essentially be nullified. Second of all, there aren't many advantages of a Ghost making any report on anybody, so possessing Poland would have been a poor choice. Getting a Town report or a Mafia report would result in a detriment to the Ghost's win condition, which translates to the idea of Poland being such a poor target, especially with his past behavior.
So you're super confident that Columbia is actual scum pretending to be ghosted. Are you willing to lead a lynch on him tormorrow?
This is an awfully quick assumption for what was pretty much just mentioned by Brazil at the time. It brings both of them down in a way, considering the idea that it was just mentioned that I probably was possessed, but it was quickly dismissed, even when a general consensus was made that I WAS possessed.
Second off...Poland is lying about an Arms Dealer; Mafia members can't be recruited to the Cult. Iran is either Town or Cult at this point, considering the circumstances. With Norway dead, there's no way that the Cult has a supply of guns unless the Mafia found them, which is unlikely due to Egypt's confirmation that Australia was in fact a Consigliere. On top of this, I feel as if Poland did this to put fear in everybody of Iran being part of a Cult, increasing my Town read on him. The only thing I'm worried about is the fact that he got a gun twice in a row, which is a bit cautioning from my perspective. The only other thing I can think of with this is the idea that Poland lied about the idea of a suit, putting the fear of England being Town in everyone, as well as the fear that a Cult existed. It's a pretty plausible theory in practice, which makes me think that it's just one big bluff and that Poland was indeed the Witch. Though if this is the case, then Costa Rica needs to be scrutinized today due to a Mafia report on Poland, since it's a Neutral Witch, rather than a Mafia Witch.
Thirdly...Poland's idea of scum dominance. We've got 1-2 Mafia members left (I'm leaving out the potential of 3 left due to to the circumstances of all the other neutrals that have been confirmed). Along with this, a high possibility of a Serial Killer, and 5 Cult members at most, assuming they recruited successfully every night. That leaves the potential of a maximum of 7 scum left in the game (8 including Ghost, which still isn't enough), which leaves us with 11 Town (assuming the remainder of Hidden Any roles are all Town). There's no way for Poland to know that the scum would have control over Day 6 unless he knew about other neutrals being existent in the game, which -- based on the results he gave us if he is indeed a Sheriff -- is doubtful at this point in the game. Along with this, I got the idea of there being two Masons, and three Citizen claims left (two if you see me dead in the morning and if India doesn't get himself mod killed). Assuming every other recruit failed, that leaves the Masons with a maximum chance of 5/9 hitting a Cult member, which gives an even more distinct chance that the scum will not have control over Day 6 like Poland thinks they will. Along with the 1/9 chance of hitting the Cult Leader, there's that high of a chance that at most 4 scum die in one night, giving the Town a HUGE edge over all forms of scum. I don't get where the idea of scum dominance came from, but there's a huge chance that it isn't going to happen because of the Mason Leader. Possess the ML or not (besides, New Zealand won't know who the Mason Leader is anyway, so that idea pretty much screwed the theory completely, unless Poland hinted toward each member of the Cult, in which we should evaluate Poland's posts very closely if that is the case. It makes sense to give the Ghost an outline of who not to possess.
On a final note...here are the current reads I have right now. Green Yellow and Red are Town, Neutral, and Mafia, respectively. Purple represents a Cult read. If a Cult doesn't exist, then treat the purple as Mafia.
FM Argentina - His dismissal of Brazil's past posts (as shown above) worries me quite deeply. I'm not sure what all he has in store for the rest of the game, but I've a feeling that it isn't anything for the interest of the Town.
FM Brazil - Pretty much the same as Argentina, but his dismissal of me being possessed after conspicuously (yet subtly) saying so himself makes me think that somebody hinted toward him making a mistake, thus causing such a dismissal. Not sure what else to think with that.
FM Costa Rica - Would be Green had Poland showed up as Mafia, but he turned up as Witch. Even if he is Cult, that's a solid lie from you. Poland saying you were Town doesn't help either.
FM Cyprus - I can't make a read on him for some strange reason...it may be that he has a lot of posts, or maybe because he doesn't put all that much in his posts. I'm neutral about him, as I can see it being taken to either a Town or a Scum read.
FM Germany - Not sure what to think of him after Poland got lynched. He may be more likely Town from my perspective, but this is all WIFOM here.
FM India - Needs to post or be mod killed; his activity is ridiculous.
FM Iran - He's the best Town member we have right now, from my perspective. It'd be a shame if he turned out to be part of a Cult, but I'm willing to believe that he is Town right now.
FM Ireland - He hasn't posted enough for me to get a decent read, but from what I've seen, he seems like Town. I'd need more information to get a more accurate result though.
FM Japan - He is very clever with some of his analysis and theorizing, which is something that he has stood out for in recent days. If he were scum, he wouldn't come out of his shell like this, so I am fully confident that he is Town.
FM Kenya - He is surprisingly hard to read, even though his play style is a lot more antagonistic than most here. I'm not sure what to think of him in terms of alignment, because antagonism can stem from both Town and Scum.
FM Mexico - I believe his Citizen claim fully. Besides, a Citizen claim is likely to be neither Cult nor Mafia, so it works out.
FM Russia - Pretty much a confirmed Mason at this point.
FM Saudi Arabia - I seen to be the only one seeing the benignant intentions from him; he really hasn't done anything to put himself into a hole, and his theorizing ability is astonishingly well, but everyone seems to put it aside because he is suspicious. You should all rethink your read on him and look more closely.
FM Spain - They make decent posts when they are around, but they aren't the most active. They seem to have a very passive background style, which can either be an indicator for Serial Killer or a Town member that can't get into anything successfully (I could say the same about Saudi Arabia, but he's been a lot more active than Spain has). I can go either way on this one.
FM Sweden - I'm legitimately at a loss as to a decent read on her. No matter how hard I looked, I couldn't find a single thing that made her stand out except for her willingness to get more information out of my Day 1 analysis. I don't know what's going on with her other than that, but the random suspicions seem to be a bit unneeded.
FM Switzerland - He claimed to have requested a replacement, so I don't know what to think about him.
FM Thailand - Seriously, you need to do more. The more you troll around, the worse of a perception you get from other people, and I an no exception.
FM USA - Similarly to Japan, he came out of his shell later in the game, indicating Town.
Make of these what you will. As a final goodbye, I will leave you with my LW code.
ANTIDISESTABLISHMENTARIANISM
If you want to call bullshit on my code, then think of one currently living person who would make a LW like this other than me.
With Regards,
The Colombian Drug Administration
I confirm that Libya was a mason and was not tailored.
If the other mason or the mason leader needs to claim during the day, he should solve this code:
qaeipudmfnvijasdfgmznvgi
The cypher was posted in the mason chat night 4 reply #8.
I am a Citizen
Don't trust all the citizen claimers. Pressure Costa Rica today since no chance of being vented/ghost. Sweden was faking. I still agree Kenya is suspicious so it would be good to pressure him some more. Iran is a bit scummy now because he didn't like use voting Sweden and he should be watched.
I didn't expect to survive today, that evidence was just too damn good.
Serial killer, kill Brazil tonight.
I'd like to avoid you targeting the same people as the mafia so after Brazil why don't you focus the most active town and our guys will get the less active town
Mafia, tonight kill restipulation. I believe he is the ultrafiltration.
HAIL HYDRA
TL;DR
---------------------------
About
Last will and lynch of Argentina:
Mafia already know who is SK.
Their suggestion toward SK is about
1. Make sure no friendly fire between SK and Mafia
2. Gain + KPN
3. If true then it basically mean the last few mafia are medium active.
So based on activity(Quality of posts):
Most: USA, Cyprus, Mexico, Iran
Medium: Arabia, Japan, Kenya, Costa Rica, Germany
Low: Thailand,
Lower: India, Switzerland
A word to the wise serial Killer:
Sk have no idea who the last mafia is.
Once cooperate with Mafia, sk is at a lower ground:
Look this table of mafia's action if pressed: (mafia action)/(SK action)
Table of prisoner SK(Press) SK(hide)
Mafia(choose to out SK) OutSK/Gambit OutSK/Gambit
Mafia(choose to hide SK) Gambit/Gambit Gambit/Gambit
It means out sk is the dominate strategy for Mafia, despite what SK would do.
On the other side, all strategy to SK is indifferent.
And for SK once pressed, the only way out is to gambit
I hope the SK watch out what he is dealing with. There is no long term partnership with mafia.
Especially they know who you are while you don't know their number and roles.
However, you must notice if someone purposely protecting you. Those are the ones you want to think about.
------------------------
FM Brazil is replaced in night 3.
The last will is written by FM Brazil.
Credibility: FML
Value: Infinite Useless
Code: X doesn't matter. It was about Chinese reminder theorem.
FM Brazil is a twitching nutty Chinese bastard.
Warning: Lynch a neutral doesn't get you ANY town credit in my analysis
Action:
(Until day 7, all interviewed targets are alive. That is : Free Fullretard Passport is created)
Day 1: Arabia*** - No Response
Day 2: Cyprus
Day 3: Mexico
Day 4: Spain - No Response
Day 5: Switzerland
Day 6: USA
Day 7: Arabia - agian
----Night 3---
Don't like Norway anyway.
The previous Brazil is probably frustrated.
----Day 4----
Italy trusted Poland.
Italy died.
There is a drug dealer, who used to drug people with "attacked & healed"/"witched" to discredit them.
It is possible that Poland was drugged, so I lied healing him to shield him as much.
--------Night 4--------
"Targets are notified if they are successfully poisoned."
Bye Egypt.
Egypt lied about didn't check greenland. He did check greenland.
Why lie?
It gives him more space to accuse people.
And you fucktards wants all liars to pay the price?
Aint all liars are evil.
So some people is secretly discredit your townies. DO NOT FALL IN THAT SHIT TRAP.
I highly doubt there is a mason, but I just ride the tide and use masons to shield people I like.
----------Night 5-------------
Poland is non-mafia, as I guessed.
So he may guessed out few mafias from witch reporting and such.
Germany claimed a role to protect himself.
------Night 6------
Fuck, don't want toxicology to die but Sweden you are such a loser.
USA didn't check me. I bluffed.
USA said this in day 5:"Why isn't Brazil dead? He is a fucking doctor"
USA went to Germany Night 5.
---Day 7----
Ireland is dead. I guess killer is trying to hunt down the Journalist. My time is short.
I have been suspecting USA. --- Yes I put him in town council but he is not on my town list.
Today, the interview and early log in of USA indicate a gambit is under going.
I'm the one who can either derail the train or let it go.
Argentina tried to push me days ago. Failed.
For my high pressure policy, I'd let the train go as fast. .. a little too fast if you ask me.
But what if USA is testing me instead? He bluffed knowing who is journalist.
However think about it,
If USA is mafia, this gambit is a declaration of victory. It is way to risky.
Then there is one way to know it, as the journalist.
First I claim replacement to shield USA from predicting my intention.
Then I claim escort so that USA doesn't have to face testimony.
By That I can Hijack two strong cards from his hand and put in my own hand.
Since USA is not on a concrete ground, then I can 'derail' the train to see his reaction.
Then if USA haste to hammer, I could either play along.
Then I claim the interview are truthful to see if USA did wrote a true interview.
USA did not. Apparently he did not block Argentina the night before.
Then based on log in, I deduce germany is blocked.
Surprisingly, USA likely blocked Switzerland. That means he is a town.
Therefore, I do not have to expose myself.
If killers come after me, I buy USA at least a night to block the killer.
At this point of game, escort is more important.
At the same time, Argentina must be laughting if he read my journal.
Good death! Great Drama! Much plot!
***********Claim: USA is a TOWN, Prove*********
Assumption: If there are only 2-3 mafias left, it is still too early to pull a 1-1 gambit.
Then inductively,
If USA is mafia, he will not pull a gambit with huge risk.
1.4 people are involved in the USA gambit, Kenya, the Journalist, Germany and Argentina.
Each of us has the power to pull a dead "friendly" fire upon USA.
USA must be able to pull this gambit with 100% confident that there are at least 3 town among us 4 people.
And USA think Argentina is the (only)Mafia, if the artical said all truth.
2.USA retract his claim. Though gambitting, USA retract his detective claim also bears huge risk.
Argentina is right that USA is not detective, but for USA's part, it is much easier stick with the det claim to the end.
3.Dilemma of quick Hammer.
Facing a gambit, USA might not want to wait more accident.
With me, he could have easily hammered Argentina at L-2, but he chooses to wait.
Note I'm not possessed. It is high risk to wait a ghost comes to claim wrong RB information.
Conclusion: USA isn't pulling a dumb play, it was great. USA is likely town.
------------------------
The key people who know something/Mafia/Night Action/Feedback:
Poland
Saudi Arabia
Spain
Russia
Costa Rica
Argentina
Suggestive strong Town credit:
Cyprus
Southkorea
Egypt
Libya
Japan
Colombia
Mexico
Ireland
Smart people, better watch out if betray:
Japan
Cyprus
Arabia
Suggestion of Lynch/Pressure: Costa Rica/Spain/Arabia
Costa Rica lied. It is now proven.
If Sweden flipped Mafia then CostaRica is clean.
But sweden flip Toxicologist.
Costa Rica can still be mafia.
His defense is now Broken.
The rule is: YoLo - You only lie once.
-------------------------
Spain
1. Didn't response to interview
2. the original accusor of germany
3. let germany go too easy to be true
-----------------------------
Arabia
He Managed to miss key voting.
His isolation is also a good strategy to immune my relationship analysis.
But this play is bad for mafia.
Basically, if Arabia is mafia, he is playing for town's favor.
Until he doesn't show up, doesn't vote
---------------------------
If libya was killed by mafia, then Libya died only because he consistently accusing Costa Rica.
If Costa Rica is a mafia, then who give Costa Rica Town vibe with no support by Day 3 are likely scums.
---------------------------
Suggestion of Stradegy change: Town Fags
Sitting on wrong train is FINE.
Give your reason and stop hide like a fag.
If you are a bad or newbie player, face it.
No one will blame you.
But if you are a genius and find there are already too god damn many is playing hide and seek already, don't join that mud and make things WORSE.
USE MY TOWN COUNCIL!
------------------------
-----------
Key Post worth reading again again and again:
China Day 2 #233
GreenLand Day 2 #304
Colombia Day 2#309
Iran Day 2 #308
Italy Day 3 #67 ******
South Korea Day 3 #72 ***
Russia Day 3 #373
England #381
Libya Day 3 #473
Colombia Day 4 #40
Libya Day 4 #72
Brazil Day 4 #262
Brazil Day 6 All-Day-Long
----------------
Possible Bonds and Disbond:
USA - Colombia
Mexico - Iran
USA X Kenya
USA X Sweden
Spain X Germany
The least want-to-see Mafia Team:
You really do not want the mafia team to be like those, so watch out.
Possible Team 1: USA(Witch) Germany(Lawyer/Tailor) (???)
Possible Team 2: Arabia(Lawyer/Tailor), Argentina(Drug Dealer), (???)
Serial Killer: Spain/Costa Rica(???)
Extra Information:
Some dead people are deleted.
It is not easy to understand but you know a fact:
Members of Organized crime will not act in one line, unless the victory is nailed.
If one person with high frequency in list below flip mafia, the other high frequency ones are likely clean.
Assume Ghost and Vent will keep previous owner's style.
Lurk/Hint:
Iran (Day 2)
India (Day 2)(day 3)(day 4)(day 5)(day 6)
Spain (Day 2)
Medium Troll/sheeple/Useless arguements:
Mexico (Day 1)
USA (Day 2)
German (Day 1) (Day 2)
Thailand (Day 1)
Marginal attachment(Some discussion, some vote, no solid):
Japan (Day 1)(Day 2)(Day 4)(Day 5)(Day 6)
German (Day 3)(Day 4)
Content/Clear sight(Not major target but made discussion):
Saudi Arabia (Day 1)(Day 3)(Day 4)
Argentina(****)
Japan (Day 3)(Day 4)(Day 5)(Day 6)
Colombia (Day 3)
Mexico (Day 3)(Day 4)
Kenya (Day 4)
Iran (Day 3)
Cyprus (Day 6)
Living/Director(Come with a clear goal and will):
Cyprus (Day 2)(Interview)(Day 4)(Day 5)
England(****)
Egypt (****)
Iran (Day 5)
Kenya (Day 5)
USA (Day 6)
Swing/tumble (be attacked but dodged by various strategy):
Norway (Day 1)
Cyprus (Day 1)
Spain (Day 1)
Kenya (Day 2)(Day 3)(Day 6)***Note Kenya is really good at dodge accusasion
Clear Cut Defend (Single Irreversible Claim):
Costa Rica (Day 4)
Germany (Day 5)
Kenya (Day 6)
USA (Day 6)
Argentina (Day 7)
tunnle:
Green Land(****)
Argentina (****)
Switzerland (Day 2)
Spain (Day 4)
Kenya (Day 5)
Iran (Day 4)(Day 6)
Day 8 will end in 48 hours at 6:00 PM PST, May 1 (http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=May+1%2C+2014%2C+6%3A00+PM+PST).
With 13 people alive, it takes 7
FM Brazil was found dead this morning.
His role was Journalist.
FM Brazil left a last will:
TL;DR
---------------------------
About
Last will and lynch of Argentina:
Mafia already know who is SK.
Their suggestion toward SK is about
1. Make sure no friendly fire between SK and Mafia
2. Gain + KPN
3. If true then it basically mean the last few mafia are medium active.
So based on activity(Quality of posts):
Most: USA, Cyprus, Mexico, Iran
Medium: Arabia, Japan, Kenya, Costa Rica, Germany
Low: Thailand,
Lower: India, Switzerland
A word to the wise serial Killer:
Sk have no idea who the last mafia is.
Once cooperate with Mafia, sk is at a lower ground:
Look this table of mafia's action if pressed: (mafia action)/(SK action)
Table of prisoner SK(Press) SK(hide)
Mafia(choose to out SK) OutSK/Gambit OutSK/Gambit
Mafia(choose to hide SK) Gambit/Gambit Gambit/Gambit
It means out sk is the dominate strategy for Mafia, despite what SK would do.
On the other side, all strategy to SK is indifferent.
And for SK once pressed, the only way out is to gambit
I hope the SK watch out what he is dealing with. There is no long term partnership with mafia.
Especially they know who you are while you don't know their number and roles.
However, you must notice if someone purposely protecting you. Those are the ones you want to think about.
------------------------
FM Brazil is replaced in night 3.
The last will is written by FM Brazil.
Credibility: FML
Value: Infinite Useless
Code: X doesn't matter. It was about Chinese reminder theorem.
FM Brazil is a twitching nutty Chinese bastard.
Warning: Lynch a neutral doesn't get you ANY town credit in my analysis
Action:
(Until day 7, all interviewed targets are alive. That is : Free Fullretard Passport is created)
Day 1: Arabia*** - No Response
Day 2: Cyprus
Day 3: Mexico
Day 4: Spain - No Response
Day 5: Switzerland
Day 6: USA
Day 7: Arabia - agian
----Night 3---
Don't like Norway anyway.
The previous Brazil is probably frustrated.
----Day 4----
Italy trusted Poland.
Italy died.
There is a drug dealer, who used to drug people with "attacked & healed"/"witched" to discredit them.
It is possible that Poland was drugged, so I lied healing him to shield him as much.
--------Night 4--------
"Targets are notified if they are successfully poisoned."
Bye Egypt.
Egypt lied about didn't check greenland. He did check greenland.
Why lie?
It gives him more space to accuse people.
And you fucktards wants all liars to pay the price?
Aint all liars are evil.
So some people is secretly discredit your townies. DO NOT FALL IN THAT SHIT TRAP.
I highly doubt there is a mason, but I just ride the tide and use masons to shield people I like.
----------Night 5-------------
Poland is non-mafia, as I guessed.
So he may guessed out few mafias from witch reporting and such.
Germany claimed a role to protect himself.
------Night 6------
Fuck, don't want toxicology to die but Sweden you are such a loser.
USA didn't check me. I bluffed.
USA said this in day 5:"Why isn't Brazil dead? He is a fucking doctor"
USA went to Germany Night 5.
---Day 7----
Ireland is dead. I guess killer is trying to hunt down the Journalist. My time is short.
I have been suspecting USA. --- Yes I put him in town council but he is not on my town list.
Today, the interview and early log in of USA indicate a gambit is under going.
I'm the one who can either derail the train or let it go.
Argentina tried to push me days ago. Failed.
For my high pressure policy, I'd let the train go as fast. .. a little too fast if you ask me.
But what if USA is testing me instead? He bluffed knowing who is journalist.
However think about it,
If USA is mafia, this gambit is a declaration of victory. It is way to risky.
Then there is one way to know it, as the journalist.
First I claim replacement to shield USA from predicting my intention.
Then I claim escort so that USA doesn't have to face testimony.
By That I can Hijack two strong cards from his hand and put in my own hand.
Since USA is not on a concrete ground, then I can 'derail' the train to see his reaction.
Then if USA haste to hammer, I could either play along.
Then I claim the interview are truthful to see if USA did wrote a true interview.
USA did not. Apparently he did not block Argentina the night before.
Then based on log in, I deduce germany is blocked.
Surprisingly, USA likely blocked Switzerland. That means he is a town.
Therefore, I do not have to expose myself.
If killers come after me, I buy USA at least a night to block the killer.
At this point of game, escort is more important.
At the same time, Argentina must be laughting if he read my journal.
Good death! Great Drama! Much plot!
***********Claim: USA is a TOWN, Prove*********
Assumption: If there are only 2-3 mafias left, it is still too early to pull a 1-1 gambit.
Then inductively,
If USA is mafia, he will not pull a gambit with huge risk.
1.4 people are involved in the USA gambit, Kenya, the Journalist, Germany and Argentina.
Each of us has the power to pull a dead "friendly" fire upon USA.
USA must be able to pull this gambit with 100% confident that there are at least 3 town among us 4 people.
And USA think Argentina is the (only)Mafia, if the artical said all truth.
2.USA retract his claim. Though gambitting, USA retract his detective claim also bears huge risk.
Argentina is right that USA is not detective, but for USA's part, it is much easier stick with the det claim to the end.
3.Dilemma of quick Hammer.
Facing a gambit, USA might not want to wait more accident.
With me, he could have easily hammered Argentina at L-2, but he chooses to wait.
Note I'm not possessed. It is high risk to wait a ghost comes to claim wrong RB information.
Conclusion: USA isn't pulling a dumb play, it was great. USA is likely town.
------------------------
The key people who know something/Mafia/Night Action/Feedback:
Poland
Saudi Arabia
Spain
Russia
Costa Rica
Argentina
Suggestive strong Town credit:
Cyprus
Southkorea
Egypt
Libya
Japan
Colombia
Mexico
Ireland
Smart people, better watch out if betray:
Japan
Cyprus
Arabia
Suggestion of Lynch/Pressure: Costa Rica/Spain/Arabia
Costa Rica lied. It is now proven.
If Sweden flipped Mafia then CostaRica is clean.
But sweden flip Toxicologist.
Costa Rica can still be mafia.
His defense is now Broken.
The rule is: YoLo - You only lie once.
-------------------------
Spain
1. Didn't response to interview
2. the original accusor of germany
3. let germany go too easy to be true
-----------------------------
Arabia
He Managed to miss key voting.
His isolation is also a good strategy to immune my relationship analysis.
But this play is bad for mafia.
Basically, if Arabia is mafia, he is playing for town's favor.
Until he doesn't show up, doesn't vote
---------------------------
If libya was killed by mafia, then Libya died only because he consistently accusing Costa Rica.
If Costa Rica is a mafia, then who give Costa Rica Town vibe with no support by Day 3 are likely scums.
---------------------------
Suggestion of Stradegy change: Town Fags
Sitting on wrong train is FINE.
Give your reason and stop hide like a fag.
If you are a bad or newbie player, face it.
No one will blame you.
But if you are a genius and find there are already too god damn many is playing hide and seek already, don't join that mud and make things WORSE.
USE MY TOWN COUNCIL!
------------------------
-----------
Key Post worth reading again again and again:
China Day 2 #233
GreenLand Day 2 #304
Colombia Day 2#309
Iran Day 2 #308
Italy Day 3 #67 ******
South Korea Day 3 #72 ***
Russia Day 3 #373
England #381
Libya Day 3 #473
Colombia Day 4 #40
Libya Day 4 #72
Brazil Day 4 #262
Brazil Day 6 All-Day-Long
----------------
Possible Bonds and Disbond:
USA - Colombia
Mexico - Iran
USA X Kenya
USA X Sweden
Spain X Germany
The least want-to-see Mafia Team:
You really do not want the mafia team to be like those, so watch out.
Possible Team 1: USA(Witch) Germany(Lawyer/Tailor) (???)
Possible Team 2: Arabia(Lawyer/Tailor), Argentina(Drug Dealer), (???)
Serial Killer: Spain/Costa Rica(???)
Extra Information:
Some dead people are deleted.
It is not easy to understand but you know a fact:
Members of Organized crime will not act in one line, unless the victory is nailed.
If one person with high frequency in list below flip mafia, the other high frequency ones are likely clean.
Assume Ghost and Vent will keep previous owner's style.
Lurk/Hint:
Iran (Day 2)
India (Day 2)(day 3)(day 4)(day 5)(day 6)
Spain (Day 2)
Medium Troll/sheeple/Useless arguements:
Mexico (Day 1)
USA (Day 2)
German (Day 1) (Day 2)
Thailand (Day 1)
Marginal attachment(Some discussion, some vote, no solid):
Japan (Day 1)(Day 2)(Day 4)(Day 5)(Day 6)
German (Day 3)(Day 4)
Content/Clear sight(Not major target but made discussion):
Saudi Arabia (Day 1)(Day 3)(Day 4)
Argentina(****)
Japan (Day 3)(Day 4)(Day 5)(Day 6)
Colombia (Day 3)
Mexico (Day 3)(Day 4)
Kenya (Day 4)
Iran (Day 3)
Cyprus (Day 6)
Living/Director(Come with a clear goal and will):
Cyprus (Day 2)(Interview)(Day 4)(Day 5)
England(****)
Egypt (****)
Iran (Day 5)
Kenya (Day 5)
USA (Day 6)
Swing/tumble (be attacked but dodged by various strategy):
Norway (Day 1)
Cyprus (Day 1)
Spain (Day 1)
Kenya (Day 2)(Day 3)(Day 6)***Note Kenya is really good at dodge accusasion
Clear Cut Defend (Single Irreversible Claim):
Costa Rica (Day 4)
Germany (Day 5)
Kenya (Day 6)
USA (Day 6)
Argentina (Day 7)
tunnle:
Green Land(****)
Argentina (****)
Switzerland (Day 2)
Spain (Day 4)
Kenya (Day 5)
Iran (Day 4)(Day 6)
A news article was published:
Hey, thanks for visiting me Journalist. I had a feeling I was going to get visited eventually, but I digress. From the patterns from what you’ve been visiting, I think you’re town Journalist so I feel comfortable revealing here. I’m Italy’s Student, I’m sorry I can’t really help with info or anything. We didn’t talk that much in night chat to be honest, he wasn’t the most active. But he did say a few things. Main suspicion at the time was that he was really skeptical on how Costa Rica lead that mislynch.
Code: AICLQAKPWWT.
Anyway, onto day speculation and such. It’s frustrating because there isn't any town leader that we know for sure is town. Whoever killed Colombia knew what they were doing.? Also, I’m surprised that India nor Switzerland posted yesterday and they didn't get modkilled.
Brazil’s confirmed non-mafian at least. Considering that Argentina basically claimed mafian in his LW (of course unless mafia has an architect which they’re using to communicate and tell the EN otherwise. But honestly how many more mafians can we expect to have.) and that Argentina said for the SK to kill him. If he shows up unkilled today then I’d bet that one of the people roleblocked are as such. Escort, you know who you are, I say claim if someone you blocked doesn't claim as such in this event and we have a pretty much guaranteed SK kill. I can’t figure out who “restipulation” is, though considering from what Argentina said it might be a less active town.
Reads:
FM Brazil - While I see Colombia’s points from his LW, and I agree with them, I think he’s been acting quite a bit more town as of late to make up for it. And also the fact that Argentina cleared up for us that Brazil’s not mafian.
FM Costa Rica - I don’t like how she decided to fake claim Sheriff then run with it. I know she did it originally as a troll, but still. They also seem pretty focused on their own agenda rather than the collective one, which is a bit concerning. I’m curious to why he’s suspicious of Cyprus though. Please answer this Costa Rica. She also seemed a little robotic to me, though I get a feeling she's town, that mafia wouldn't do risky moves like that. Might just be me though. Overall, I can't get a good read on her.
FM Cyprus - I read him town overall. I feel like he tries to actively contribute when he can and he doesn’t really try to make a fool out of day. Which I appreciate.
FM Germany - I’ve been really iffy on Germany for a while. I was dead certain he was mafian for a little bit, then my attention got focused elsewhere. But I’m not sure on his BP claim. Nor do I like he literally just jumped in to lock the lynch. I feel like we need to utilize day as much as possible, and letting half of it just go like that isn’t something I’m for. Also, the Nazi trolling. Gah that’s annoying and distracting. Overall read is I think he's scum.
FM India - Inactive, and when he is, all he does is troll. . He’s on my list of “wtf you’re inactive” along with Switzerland. Hard to make a read due to that reason, but if I can glean any role from it it's probably mafian or something.
FM Iran - Town. He seems like the most leaderlike guy at the moment, and he seems logically sound.
FM Japan - It seems like to me Japan would be one of those guys who would make a scum slip if he was scum. He has stepped it up though, so I’d say town all things considered.
FM Kenya - I probably buy the BP claim from him more than Germany, and I get the reason he disliked the idea of a Poland lynch there at the end. Also the fact that Argentina, who’s mafia, pit himself against Kenya makes me think differently from the rest about Kenya. Though it’s hard to ignore how he handled the lynching of Poland on the next day and how he wanted to lynch Japan seemed a bit scummy if you ask me. So I’m torn on him to be honest. I see both sides here.
FM Mexico - I’d say he’s been lurking now adays, and I don’t really remember him contributing much. Regardless, I’m getting a towny feel from him.
FM Saudi Arabia - Overall he seems pretty town like to me. Kind of inactive lurky, but I feel like he contributes when he’s active.
FM Spain - Similar to Arabia, though I feel like he’s a little robotic at times.
FM Switzerland - “wtf you’re inactive”. I feel like he’s never really taken a stand that much, so I see him as potential scum.
FM Thailand - If he’s lying about the RBs, then I’m assuming anti-town. Otherwise we have another role blocker somewhere in the mix. But he trolls all day. And does nothing. He’s just really annoying to me.
FM USA – He’s seemed to up his play as of late and not afraid to take a stand. I’m going with town.
Roles List:
Living Players:
Graveyard:
Ragnar Lodbrok (Hidden Norseman)
Hidden Norseman
Hidden Norseman
Hidden Norseman
King Aelle (Hidden Anglo-Saxon)
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Anglo-Saxon
Hidden Non-Town
Hidden Non-Town
Hidden Non-Town
Hidden Non-Town
Hidden Any
Hidden Any
Hidden Any
Hidden Any
Hidden Any
FM Costa Rica
FM Cyprus
FM Germany
FM India
FM Iran
FM Japan
FM Kenya
FM Mexico
FM Saudi Arabia
FM Spain
FM Switzerland
FM Thailand
FM USA
FM Australia - Consigliere - Died Night 1
FM Pakistan - Detective - Died Night 1
FM Greenland - Beguiler - Sacrificed Day 2
FM China - Doctor - Died Night 2
FM New Zealand - Ghost - Died Night 2
FM Norway - Blacksmith - Sacrificed Day 3
FM England - Consort - Died Day 3
FM Canada - Ninja - Died Night 3
FM South Korea - Vigilante - Died Night 3
FM Italy - Mayor (King Aelle) - Died Night 3
FM France - Citizen - Died Night 3
FM Egypt - Sheriff - Died Day 4
FM Libya - Mason - Died Night 4
FM Poland - Witch - Sacrificed Day 5
FM Fiji - Citizen - Mod killed Day 5
FM Colombia - Citizen - Died Night 5
FM Russia - Mason - Died Night 5
FM Sweden - Toxicologist - Sacrificed Day 6
FM Ireland - Citizen - Died Night 6
FM Argentina - Disguiser (Ragnar Lodbrok) - Sacrificed Day 7
FM Brazil - Journalist - Died Night 7
Last Wills:
You think you are all safe, but alas, the Vikings have arrived. All hail the arrival of the noble savages!
We shall plunder your towns and take thy women.
But enough RPing. May the town be as barren as my icy lands. Get ready to burn.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wonderful job Egypt. Spot on work there. I hope it was worth it
Evil Neutrals! Proclamation for ya. We can win with everyone except the dirty town and meddling cult. So we want to win with you if we can. Don't waste your night actions on Egypt. Trust us, we know what we're doing and you can consider that problem sorted.
Cult, if we don't win you guys need to. Here's a head start, you've got some confirmed masons running amuck. Don't let them get away with it. Check out FMXX, it's better to coordinate until the town is put down.
We have decided to not claim feedback relevant to you if we get it to signal to you that we're with you. Ex: doused, we won't claim it, and you know we're on your side.
To my fuck buddies:
sorry troops I'm outta here, but use logic (especially concerning bouncy) and you know what to do.
blackmailer sticking around before not sticking around is a good idea per what I said in night chat
don't get fooled by an anteater, it's hella bad if we do. let george/unmarshalled/etc. deal with it
try to figure out who smoke is and coordinate if possible
duke needs to be eliminated asap, along with replumed, argo, biarticulate, and knap - if these players are who I think they are these are extremely high priority all else held equal
oceanic, castilla should work more together. fraud, demobbing, and misdating are in a good place right now
use appetizer to your advantage, especially as it ties in to the proclamation
greenwood should get a greenlight soon, use it
tossing out picks is useful for drafting later
corvus might be more likely than reforgeable
All non-town, even if we don't individually win, we do at some level if we fuck the town. Let the reign of scum continue from FM XX!
Peace out bitches. I'll enjoy my popcorn from the sidelines.
I'm doctor
n1: no action, didnt heal in that clusterfuck
n2: egypt
IMPORTANT: HEALING DOES STOP CULT CONVERT I HAVE ASKED THIS BUT IT DOES NOT DO +1
final read list:
plz note that if i say if they are unaligned that they are not town to me but are unlikely to be aligned with Greenland the the rest of the mafia
FM Argentina: gut town
FM Brazil: gut scum
FM Canada: gut scum
FM China: dead doc
FM Colombia: we will know soon enough, something is irking though
FM Costa Rica: havent seen
FM Cyprus: after further revew, i am actualy leaning scum
FM Egypt: sheriff
FM England: gut town
FM Fiji: unaligned with greenland
FM France: replaced in....
FM Germany: haven seen much
FM India: lurker galore
FM Iran: guts say hes pr, tonw or not is to be decided
FM Ireland: gut town
FM Italy: mafia scum, post 26 and 55, if he flips scum it would confirm a DDer
FM Japan: student most likely
FM Kenya: seriously if this guy is town in any form, he does truly suck
FM Libya: mason claim
FM Mexico: I'm pegging him scum, he seems too "IDGAF" to be town and is playing the apathetic card
FM New Zealand: guts say scum
FM Norway: ?
FM Poland: I'm gonna rule him netural, but not evil
FM Russia: not a mafia scum if Italy flips mafia
FM Saudi Arabia: I'm going to give her town
FM South Korea: Scum/neutral based off how day 2 went and interactions with greenland, mafia, most likely
FM Spain: i am going to say unaligned with greenland
FM Sweden: ?
FM Switzerland: guts would say neutral
FM Thailand : ?
FM USA: gut neutral
Ugh looks like that poison was real. Yay. I'm town Operator which is why I was so certain Greenland was scum yesterday. I acted like I couldn't be roleblocked ("someone tried to roleblock me") so that I wouldn't get roleblocked again. I targetted Colombia and Saudi hoping that Saudi would shoot himself as a result.
As for reads... Mexico is probably scum, Canada/Saudi/Argentina etc are scum. My reads haven't really changed since my giants reads lists was back in the first half of D3. Poland is probably legit though and I'm less confident in my Egypt townread. There's probably scum in the lurkers.
Of course I get rbed N1 and the one guy I target is a Doctor -which could have potentially been quite useful to either side-.
Getting Ninja was a blessing. Should have paid a bit more attention to day chat to possibly have prevented myself from dying. Oh well.
Speciar code 1: r
Speciar code 2: Real Exempt Noel Maroon Tilapia
(Except for the word Real, there are no L's; Maroon Tirapia = Red Herring)
Speciar code 3: South East Asia
n1 FM Austraria
n2 FM New Zearand
n3 FM Canada
I don't regret defendering Greenrand cause friction = more post anarysis. Jk I do because I brew my shot at MVP. Rooting for FM Corombia
Shot Austraria for braming real rife, Shot New Zearand for being the king of active rurkers and being super ambivarent about votes. A real Town wourd cast his votes much ress roboticarry. Arso, Day 1 Post #206. I understand that shooting India wourd probabry prove my rore better. I'm arso uncomfortabre at how both of my targets are Oceania.
Shot Canada. Fuck the British territories.
ENGRAND IS MOST DEFINITERY CONSORT. Isn't it too convenient that he received a suit and poisoned on the same day? And he craimed rorebrocked on D2? And he never craimed Operator? And he active rurked? And his rast wirr was ass?
RIP Norway you rittle bitch, but it was you or me.
I had unrimited charges.
If I'm not a vigirante in the graveyard I've been tairored
"I onry regret that I have but one rife to give for my country" - Nathan Hare, South Korean Patriot
I have nothing to say that I haven't already said except to reveal my code, maybe it will clue you on my real role. Good luck in your scum hunting!
Message: By my blood and by my death, I curse you all! As I die, so shall you all!
Key: Shadows of Darkness
To My Dearest of Comrades,
So I was actually ghosted on Day 5, which was really frustrating, considering the circumstances that the Ghost used to exploit how I played to be a detriment to the Town. Oh well, I guess what's done is done. I was a Citizen as I claimed.
One thing I want to bring up in my last will right now is the conversation between Brazil and Argentina at the end of the day. I picked up on this after reading the day over on my normal account, and I noticed this string of comments that really struck a wrong note with me.
I assume you are not the same Colombia.
Right. That's why I think it could be a ghost who try to get things done today, but fearing if Germany actually flip mafia.
First off, there are two things wrong with this. First off, he already said I probably wasn't the same person in the first quote, meaning that the theory stated in the second quote would essentially be nullified. Second of all, there aren't many advantages of a Ghost making any report on anybody, so possessing Poland would have been a poor choice. Getting a Town report or a Mafia report would result in a detriment to the Ghost's win condition, which translates to the idea of Poland being such a poor target, especially with his past behavior.
So you're super confident that Columbia is actual scum pretending to be ghosted. Are you willing to lead a lynch on him tormorrow?
This is an awfully quick assumption for what was pretty much just mentioned by Brazil at the time. It brings both of them down in a way, considering the idea that it was just mentioned that I probably was possessed, but it was quickly dismissed, even when a general consensus was made that I WAS possessed.
Second off...Poland is lying about an Arms Dealer; Mafia members can't be recruited to the Cult. Iran is either Town or Cult at this point, considering the circumstances. With Norway dead, there's no way that the Cult has a supply of guns unless the Mafia found them, which is unlikely due to Egypt's confirmation that Australia was in fact a Consigliere. On top of this, I feel as if Poland did this to put fear in everybody of Iran being part of a Cult, increasing my Town read on him. The only thing I'm worried about is the fact that he got a gun twice in a row, which is a bit cautioning from my perspective. The only other thing I can think of with this is the idea that Poland lied about the idea of a suit, putting the fear of England being Town in everyone, as well as the fear that a Cult existed. It's a pretty plausible theory in practice, which makes me think that it's just one big bluff and that Poland was indeed the Witch. Though if this is the case, then Costa Rica needs to be scrutinized today due to a Mafia report on Poland, since it's a Neutral Witch, rather than a Mafia Witch.
Thirdly...Poland's idea of scum dominance. We've got 1-2 Mafia members left (I'm leaving out the potential of 3 left due to to the circumstances of all the other neutrals that have been confirmed). Along with this, a high possibility of a Serial Killer, and 5 Cult members at most, assuming they recruited successfully every night. That leaves the potential of a maximum of 7 scum left in the game (8 including Ghost, which still isn't enough), which leaves us with 11 Town (assuming the remainder of Hidden Any roles are all Town). There's no way for Poland to know that the scum would have control over Day 6 unless he knew about other neutrals being existent in the game, which -- based on the results he gave us if he is indeed a Sheriff -- is doubtful at this point in the game. Along with this, I got the idea of there being two Masons, and three Citizen claims left (two if you see me dead in the morning and if India doesn't get himself mod killed). Assuming every other recruit failed, that leaves the Masons with a maximum chance of 5/9 hitting a Cult member, which gives an even more distinct chance that the scum will not have control over Day 6 like Poland thinks they will. Along with the 1/9 chance of hitting the Cult Leader, there's that high of a chance that at most 4 scum die in one night, giving the Town a HUGE edge over all forms of scum. I don't get where the idea of scum dominance came from, but there's a huge chance that it isn't going to happen because of the Mason Leader. Possess the ML or not (besides, New Zealand won't know who the Mason Leader is anyway, so that idea pretty much screwed the theory completely, unless Poland hinted toward each member of the Cult, in which we should evaluate Poland's posts very closely if that is the case. It makes sense to give the Ghost an outline of who not to possess.
On a final note...here are the current reads I have right now. Green Yellow and Red are Town, Neutral, and Mafia, respectively. Purple represents a Cult read. If a Cult doesn't exist, then treat the purple as Mafia.
FM Argentina - His dismissal of Brazil's past posts (as shown above) worries me quite deeply. I'm not sure what all he has in store for the rest of the game, but I've a feeling that it isn't anything for the interest of the Town.
FM Brazil - Pretty much the same as Argentina, but his dismissal of me being possessed after conspicuously (yet subtly) saying so himself makes me think that somebody hinted toward him making a mistake, thus causing such a dismissal. Not sure what else to think with that.
FM Costa Rica - Would be Green had Poland showed up as Mafia, but he turned up as Witch. Even if he is Cult, that's a solid lie from you. Poland saying you were Town doesn't help either.
FM Cyprus - I can't make a read on him for some strange reason...it may be that he has a lot of posts, or maybe because he doesn't put all that much in his posts. I'm neutral about him, as I can see it being taken to either a Town or a Scum read.
FM Germany - Not sure what to think of him after Poland got lynched. He may be more likely Town from my perspective, but this is all WIFOM here.
FM India - Needs to post or be mod killed; his activity is ridiculous.
FM Iran - He's the best Town member we have right now, from my perspective. It'd be a shame if he turned out to be part of a Cult, but I'm willing to believe that he is Town right now.
FM Ireland - He hasn't posted enough for me to get a decent read, but from what I've seen, he seems like Town. I'd need more information to get a more accurate result though.
FM Japan - He is very clever with some of his analysis and theorizing, which is something that he has stood out for in recent days. If he were scum, he wouldn't come out of his shell like this, so I am fully confident that he is Town.
FM Kenya - He is surprisingly hard to read, even though his play style is a lot more antagonistic than most here. I'm not sure what to think of him in terms of alignment, because antagonism can stem from both Town and Scum.
FM Mexico - I believe his Citizen claim fully. Besides, a Citizen claim is likely to be neither Cult nor Mafia, so it works out.
FM Russia - Pretty much a confirmed Mason at this point.
FM Saudi Arabia - I seen to be the only one seeing the benignant intentions from him; he really hasn't done anything to put himself into a hole, and his theorizing ability is astonishingly well, but everyone seems to put it aside because he is suspicious. You should all rethink your read on him and look more closely.
FM Spain - They make decent posts when they are around, but they aren't the most active. They seem to have a very passive background style, which can either be an indicator for Serial Killer or a Town member that can't get into anything successfully (I could say the same about Saudi Arabia, but he's been a lot more active than Spain has). I can go either way on this one.
FM Sweden - I'm legitimately at a loss as to a decent read on her. No matter how hard I looked, I couldn't find a single thing that made her stand out except for her willingness to get more information out of my Day 1 analysis. I don't know what's going on with her other than that, but the random suspicions seem to be a bit unneeded.
FM Switzerland - He claimed to have requested a replacement, so I don't know what to think about him.
FM Thailand - Seriously, you need to do more. The more you troll around, the worse of a perception you get from other people, and I an no exception.
FM USA - Similarly to Japan, he came out of his shell later in the game, indicating Town.
Make of these what you will. As a final goodbye, I will leave you with my LW code.
ANTIDISESTABLISHMENTARIANISM
If you want to call bullshit on my code, then think of one currently living person who would make a LW like this other than me.
With Regards,
The Colombian Drug Administration
I confirm that Libya was a mason and was not tailored.
If the other mason or the mason leader needs to claim during the day, he should solve this code:
qaeipudmfnvijasdfgmznvgi
The cypher was posted in the mason chat night 4 reply #8.
I am a Citizen
Don't trust all the citizen claimers. Pressure Costa Rica today since no chance of being vented/ghost. Sweden was faking. I still agree Kenya is suspicious so it would be good to pressure him some more. Iran is a bit scummy now because he didn't like use voting Sweden and he should be watched.
I didn't expect to survive today, that evidence was just too damn good.
Serial killer, kill Brazil tonight.
I'd like to avoid you targeting the same people as the mafia so after Brazil why don't you focus the most active town and our guys will get the less active town
Mafia, tonight kill restipulation. I believe he is the ultrafiltration.
HAIL HYDRA
TL;DR
---------------------------
About
Last will and lynch of Argentina:
Mafia already know who is SK.
Their suggestion toward SK is about
1. Make sure no friendly fire between SK and Mafia
2. Gain + KPN
3. If true then it basically mean the last few mafia are medium active.
So based on activity(Quality of posts):
Most: USA, Cyprus, Mexico, Iran
Medium: Arabia, Japan, Kenya, Costa Rica, Germany
Low: Thailand,
Lower: India, Switzerland
A word to the wise serial Killer:
Sk have no idea who the last mafia is.
Once cooperate with Mafia, sk is at a lower ground:
Look this table of mafia's action if pressed: (mafia action)/(SK action)
Table of prisoner SK(Press) SK(hide)
Mafia(choose to out SK) OutSK/Gambit OutSK/Gambit
Mafia(choose to hide SK) Gambit/Gambit Gambit/Gambit
It means out sk is the dominate strategy for Mafia, despite what SK would do.
On the other side, all strategy to SK is indifferent.
And for SK once pressed, the only way out is to gambit
I hope the SK watch out what he is dealing with. There is no long term partnership with mafia.
Especially they know who you are while you don't know their number and roles.
However, you must notice if someone purposely protecting you. Those are the ones you want to think about.
------------------------
FM Brazil is replaced in night 3.
The last will is written by FM Brazil.
Credibility: FML
Value: Infinite Useless
Code: X doesn't matter. It was about Chinese reminder theorem.
FM Brazil is a twitching nutty Chinese bastard.
Warning: Lynch a neutral doesn't get you ANY town credit in my analysis
Action:
(Until day 7, all interviewed targets are alive. That is : Free Fullretard Passport is created)
Day 1: Arabia*** - No Response
Day 2: Cyprus
Day 3: Mexico
Day 4: Spain - No Response
Day 5: Switzerland
Day 6: USA
Day 7: Arabia - agian
----Night 3---
Don't like Norway anyway.
The previous Brazil is probably frustrated.
----Day 4----
Italy trusted Poland.
Italy died.
There is a drug dealer, who used to drug people with "attacked & healed"/"witched" to discredit them.
It is possible that Poland was drugged, so I lied healing him to shield him as much.
--------Night 4--------
"Targets are notified if they are successfully poisoned."
Bye Egypt.
Egypt lied about didn't check greenland. He did check greenland.
Why lie?
It gives him more space to accuse people.
And you fucktards wants all liars to pay the price?
Aint all liars are evil.
So some people is secretly discredit your townies. DO NOT FALL IN THAT SHIT TRAP.
I highly doubt there is a mason, but I just ride the tide and use masons to shield people I like.
----------Night 5-------------
Poland is non-mafia, as I guessed.
So he may guessed out few mafias from witch reporting and such.
Germany claimed a role to protect himself.
------Night 6------
Fuck, don't want toxicology to die but Sweden you are such a loser.
USA didn't check me. I bluffed.
USA said this in day 5:"Why isn't Brazil dead? He is a fucking doctor"
USA went to Germany Night 5.
---Day 7----
Ireland is dead. I guess killer is trying to hunt down the Journalist. My time is short.
I have been suspecting USA. --- Yes I put him in town council but he is not on my town list.
Today, the interview and early log in of USA indicate a gambit is under going.
I'm the one who can either derail the train or let it go.
Argentina tried to push me days ago. Failed.
For my high pressure policy, I'd let the train go as fast. .. a little too fast if you ask me.
But what if USA is testing me instead? He bluffed knowing who is journalist.
However think about it,
If USA is mafia, this gambit is a declaration of victory. It is way to risky.
Then there is one way to know it, as the journalist.
First I claim replacement to shield USA from predicting my intention.
Then I claim escort so that USA doesn't have to face testimony.
By That I can Hijack two strong cards from his hand and put in my own hand.
Since USA is not on a concrete ground, then I can 'derail' the train to see his reaction.
Then if USA haste to hammer, I could either play along.
Then I claim the interview are truthful to see if USA did wrote a true interview.
USA did not. Apparently he did not block Argentina the night before.
Then based on log in, I deduce germany is blocked.
Surprisingly, USA likely blocked Switzerland. That means he is a town.
Therefore, I do not have to expose myself.
If killers come after me, I buy USA at least a night to block the killer.
At this point of game, escort is more important.
At the same time, Argentina must be laughting if he read my journal.
Good death! Great Drama! Much plot!
***********Claim: USA is a TOWN, Prove*********
Assumption: If there are only 2-3 mafias left, it is still too early to pull a 1-1 gambit.
Then inductively,
If USA is mafia, he will not pull a gambit with huge risk.
1.4 people are involved in the USA gambit, Kenya, the Journalist, Germany and Argentina.
Each of us has the power to pull a dead "friendly" fire upon USA.
USA must be able to pull this gambit with 100% confident that there are at least 3 town among us 4 people.
And USA think Argentina is the (only)Mafia, if the artical said all truth.
2.USA retract his claim. Though gambitting, USA retract his detective claim also bears huge risk.
Argentina is right that USA is not detective, but for USA's part, it is much easier stick with the det claim to the end.
3.Dilemma of quick Hammer.
Facing a gambit, USA might not want to wait more accident.
With me, he could have easily hammered Argentina at L-2, but he chooses to wait.
Note I'm not possessed. It is high risk to wait a ghost comes to claim wrong RB information.
Conclusion: USA isn't pulling a dumb play, it was great. USA is likely town.
------------------------
The key people who know something/Mafia/Night Action/Feedback:
Poland
Saudi Arabia
Spain
Russia
Costa Rica
Argentina
Suggestive strong Town credit:
Cyprus
Southkorea
Egypt
Libya
Japan
Colombia
Mexico
Ireland
Smart people, better watch out if betray:
Japan
Cyprus
Arabia
Suggestion of Lynch/Pressure: Costa Rica/Spain/Arabia
Costa Rica lied. It is now proven.
If Sweden flipped Mafia then CostaRica is clean.
But sweden flip Toxicologist.
Costa Rica can still be mafia.
His defense is now Broken.
The rule is: YoLo - You only lie once.
-------------------------
Spain
1. Didn't response to interview
2. the original accusor of germany
3. let germany go too easy to be true
-----------------------------
Arabia
He Managed to miss key voting.
His isolation is also a good strategy to immune my relationship analysis.
But this play is bad for mafia.
Basically, if Arabia is mafia, he is playing for town's favor.
Until he doesn't show up, doesn't vote
---------------------------
If libya was killed by mafia, then Libya died only because he consistently accusing Costa Rica.
If Costa Rica is a mafia, then who give Costa Rica Town vibe with no support by Day 3 are likely scums.
---------------------------
Suggestion of Stradegy change: Town Fags
Sitting on wrong train is FINE.
Give your reason and stop hide like a fag.
If you are a bad or newbie player, face it.
No one will blame you.
But if you are a genius and find there are already too god damn many is playing hide and seek already, don't join that mud and make things WORSE.
USE MY TOWN COUNCIL!
------------------------
-----------
Key Post worth reading again again and again:
China Day 2 #233
GreenLand Day 2 #304
Colombia Day 2#309
Iran Day 2 #308
Italy Day 3 #67 ******
South Korea Day 3 #72 ***
Russia Day 3 #373
England #381
Libya Day 3 #473
Colombia Day 4 #40
Libya Day 4 #72
Brazil Day 4 #262
Brazil Day 6 All-Day-Long
----------------
Possible Bonds and Disbond:
USA - Colombia
Mexico - Iran
USA X Kenya
USA X Sweden
Spain X Germany
The least want-to-see Mafia Team:
You really do not want the mafia team to be like those, so watch out.
Possible Team 1: USA(Witch) Germany(Lawyer/Tailor) (???)
Possible Team 2: Arabia(Lawyer/Tailor), Argentina(Drug Dealer), (???)
Serial Killer: Spain/Costa Rica(???)
Extra Information:
Some dead people are deleted.
It is not easy to understand but you know a fact:
Members of Organized crime will not act in one line, unless the victory is nailed.
If one person with high frequency in list below flip mafia, the other high frequency ones are likely clean.
Assume Ghost and Vent will keep previous owner's style.
Lurk/Hint:
Iran (Day 2)
India (Day 2)(day 3)(day 4)(day 5)(day 6)
Spain (Day 2)
Medium Troll/sheeple/Useless arguements:
Mexico (Day 1)
USA (Day 2)
German (Day 1) (Day 2)
Thailand (Day 1)
Marginal attachment(Some discussion, some vote, no solid):
Japan (Day 1)(Day 2)(Day 4)(Day 5)(Day 6)
German (Day 3)(Day 4)
Content/Clear sight(Not major target but made discussion):
Saudi Arabia (Day 1)(Day 3)(Day 4)
Argentina(****)
Japan (Day 3)(Day 4)(Day 5)(Day 6)
Colombia (Day 3)
Mexico (Day 3)(Day 4)
Kenya (Day 4)
Iran (Day 3)
Cyprus (Day 6)
Living/Director(Come with a clear goal and will):
Cyprus (Day 2)(Interview)(Day 4)(Day 5)
England(****)
Egypt (****)
Iran (Day 5)
Kenya (Day 5)
USA (Day 6)
Swing/tumble (be attacked but dodged by various strategy):
Norway (Day 1)
Cyprus (Day 1)
Spain (Day 1)
Kenya (Day 2)(Day 3)(Day 6)***Note Kenya is really good at dodge accusasion
Clear Cut Defend (Single Irreversible Claim):
Costa Rica (Day 4)
Germany (Day 5)
Kenya (Day 6)
USA (Day 6)
Argentina (Day 7)
tunnle:
Green Land(****)
Argentina (****)
Switzerland (Day 2)
Spain (Day 4)
Kenya (Day 5)
Iran (Day 4)(Day 6)
Day 8 will end in 48 hours at 6:00 PM PST, May 1 (http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=May+1%2C+2014%2C+6%3A00+PM+PST).
With 13 people alive, it takes 7