Night VI

[Rosenberg]

Here's where we stand:

Not entirely sure:
Matthew
Roger
Jerry
Gladys (definitely mafia)


Cole MacGrath [MacGrath] - Gladys?
Random Conduit [MacGrath] - Jerry?

Enforcer [Vermaak 88] - Jesse
Random Conduit [Vermaak 88] - Rosenberg

Reaper Leader - Chris

Militia Extremist - Alan
Priest - Emerald
Random Power Town - Thomas (Vig)
Random Power Town - Velma (Bus)
Random Power Town - Ralph(Doc)
Citizen - Thelma (Priest)
Citizen - Roger
Citizen - Matthew

With 5 nights to recruit, two recruits dead, and one night roleblocked, there are two cultists. This will become three tonight. There's also the chance that Chris was culted and then became the cult leader after being culted, which I think is a very likely possibility, since the chances of finding the cult leader at random are kind of tricky.

I have no intention to kill the cult leader tonight unless it's absolutely necessary. I'll try to figure out what our next best move is. Please enforce me tonight.

[Rosenberg]

We have a major problem in being unable to kill the red godfather, so if it gets into any sort of stalemate situation, he'll beat us every time unless we can convince town to help us. There's no real way to win from our position unless we can convince town to kill the godfather, or town or the red mafia completely screws up.

If we kill the red random tonight, we can win only if the GF kills town tomorrow night and then we can convince town to lynch the red GF for us, even if two townies die to the cult.

If the red team dies completely tonight from cult, us, or a combination of the two, we lose unless they somehow don't catch on to me.

If the GF dies tonight from being culted, another townie dies, and both mafias hit a townie, we end up with 5v1v2 where even in the best case scenario where the red mafia member only hits town, we end up with a 3v1v2 the next day (if we hit the red mafia we lose, unless we can force a mislynch somehow) where again we need the town's help to lynch or we lose, but there's less of a chance of them going along with us since they have a chance of winning in that scenario through the mafias killing each other.

I think the best action tonight would be to kill a townie, then hope for the best. If each faction plays smart this game will essentially end in a draw, where one team pretty much decides which of the other two wins. Even the best case scenarios for that have some plausibility of happening tend to end in draws, and there's no way for us to force a win other than convincing town to give us the game, or forcing a mislynch at a crucial juncture.

Therefore, I propose: Send Rosenberg to kill Thelma

I might take another look at the way things can play out later, but unless I seriously missed something, there's no chance to win if the other factions don't mess up.