Night 14 Action Prediction Game

[FM Ferengi]

Night 14 Action Prediction Game

Join in on the second round of the Night action Prediction Game!

FM Buchwalter pulls into the lead with 2, and FM Colmyer trailing at 0. Feel free to jump in even if you didn't participate in the first round!

FM Buchwalter: 2 points
FM Cafarelli: 1 point
FM Bishop: 1 point
FM Monroe: 1 point
FM Colmyer: 0 points

Since all the roles have pretty much been revealed already, let's play a guessing game: Simply copy paste the chart and fill out the items in the table.
+1 point for each correct non-citizen action predicted
+1 bonus point for submitting all actions correctly
+1 bonus point for being the first to submit all actions correctly

*For fairness, I should mention that all former mafia/cult have been removed from their respective chats*

Winner gets special mention in the epilogue and bragging rights :P



FM Names
N14 Action
N14 Feedback


FM Galloway




FM Kelso




FM Mason




FM Rose

[FM Bishop]

FM Names
N13 Action
N13 Feedback


FM Galloway
kill Rose
roleblocked; killed by Savages


FM Kelso




FM Mason
block Galloway



FM Rose
kill Galloway

[FM Bishop]

Actually I'd like to change Mason's target to Galloway with the necessary changes to the feedback.
I would edit them in if I could.

[FM Earle]

Don't think Gall and Rose stupid so...

Gall Rose kill Mason.
Mason block Rose.

[FM Earle]

Sorry.

Galloway kill Kelso
Mason block Rose
Rose kill Mason
Kelso nothing

[FM Bishop]

I say it is stupid to not kill the other scum because you lose if you don't.
You gain nothing by killing Town.
Scum is in a lose/lose scenario.

The only way to win for scum is to kill the other scum, survive and to convince one towns member to lynch another one.

[FM Green]

FM Names
N13 Action
N13 Feedback


FM Chapman




FM Galloway
-kill Rose
Roleblocked


FM Kelso




FM Mason
Block Galloway
Killed


FM Rose
Kill Mason

[FM Ferengi]

Actually I'd like to change Mason's target to Galloway with the necessary changes to the feedback.
I would edit them in if I could.

Can you PM FM Game Master to get editing privileges? I can't do anything with permissions myself. :(

[FM Cafarelli]

FM Names
N14 Action
N14 Feedback



FM Galloway
kill Rose



FM Kelso
nothing



FM Mason
Block rose



FM Rose
Kill galloway
blocked, killed by maf



2 town 1 maf 1 savage

how to win as scum?
a) i as scum kill other scum, other scum kills town
b) i kill other scum, other scum doesn't kill and i get a town mislynch

no way to win if i kill a townie

fm galloway has made it obvious that he tries b. he hopes that mason blocks rose and kills off rose and then tries to convince mason to lynch kelso. that's why he voted his godfather, to convince mason that he's town. i think mason trusts him now and blocks rose. so i think maf wins, galloway gets mvp

fm rose tries a. he will kill galloway.

[FM Cafarelli]

or wait now that i think about it mason won't block rose again and i doubt mason will trust galloway
so mason blocks galloway. too bad bishop already said this

so rose feedback is nothing, galloway feedback is blocked and killed by savages

then they lynch rose and town wins

[FM Chapman]

Rose kills Kelso
Mason blocks Galloway
Galloway tries to kill Rose

Ross's only hope at this point is getting Mason to support her in 1v1v1, so she's gonna try to force that to happen tonight.

[FM Ferengi]

Silly me! Edited the table since Chapman is dead and it's Night 14.... >.<

[FM Chapman]

Put me back in coach

[FM Monroe]

FM Names

N14 Action

N14 Feedback



FM Galloway

kill Mason



FM Kelso





FM Mason

block Rose
dead


FM Rose

skip action
blocked



Rose will rant and say they would have shot Galloway if they didn't get blocked, Kelso joins Rose, savages win :p

[FM Bishop]

Kelso joins Rose, savages win :p

Worst possible move for town. No lynch is the way to go.

[FM Monroe]

Worst possible move for town. No lynch is the way to go.

Sure, but most players would find a 1v1v1 position as town hopeless at that point, because all they can do other than picking a side is sit and twiddle their thumbs.

[FM Bishop]

It's everything else but hopeless. The just need to imagine the pressure on the other players. Twiddling thumbs while skating to victory is relaxing while the rest is hitting their heads over their dilemma. Scum can only lose as long as nobody is game throwing. Town can actually win.

[FM Mendez]

[QUOTE=FM Monroe;339066]

FM Names

N14 Action

N14 Feedback



FM Galloway

kill Rose



FM Kelso





FM Mason

No action



FM Rose

Kill Galloway




Mason can win by either blocking Galloway and lynching Rose. Or not blocking and hoping that scum kill eachother.

[FM Buchwalter]

FM Names
N14 Action
N14 Feedback


FM Galloway
attack Rose



FM Kelso




FM Mason
block Rose



FM Rose
attack Galloway
blocked, dead

[FM Parker]

FM Names
N14 Action
N14 Feedback


FM Galloway
attack Rose



FM Kelso




FM Mason
block Rose



FM Rose
attack Mason
blocked, dead

[/table]

I'll post my analysis with my table here.

I'll start with Mason.

Mason, being the escort, will likely think which faction is most likely to kill the town? That answer must be the savage player. The mafia will be stuck in a 1 v 1 v 1 and have to beg for a lynch from the townie if a townie dies. Therefore, the savage is the more dangerous of the two. Blocking the savage is the better bet. Rose is the savage, so (s)he will be blocked.

Mason blocks Rose.


Rose

Rose as the savage Godfather doesn't really care who dies as long as someone dies. Killing a town is most beneficial because that would leave the savages in the best position to win. A three way tie means that things must go wrong for the savages not to win. So the question is, who is the least manipulable of the remaining towns? That seems to be Mason. So my bet is Rose kills Mason. Killing Galloway gains Rose nothing as Rose would likely be lynched if the two townies were alive. Killing Galloway also doesn't stop Galloway from killing Rose if I am not mistaken.

Rose kills Mason


Galloway

Galloway seems to be the hardest to peg. He's just as likely aware of the tiebreaker rules. He's also likely the type to think about what the other players would do. He would be aware that if they both kill the wrong town, then the result is a 1 v 1 tie which the mafia loses. Given that no town have a vest or a doctor, killing a town is very risky for Galloway. I see him taking the safe way out and attacking Rose.

[FM Cafarelli]

wow i don't like that situation now, why did rose not kill galloway :(
it should be a town win but i get the feeling that kelso is not smart enough to realize this and will just lynch rose because he killed mason
he should pretend that he has to think about it and will chose a side at the end of a day. then he should just let day end with a no lynch and scum kills each other
because if he makes it clear from the beginning that he will not vote, they'll end up voting him to make noone win

[FM Cafarelli]

ok kelso failed lol
he gave away town win

[FM Buchwalter]

FM Names
N15 Action
N15 Feedback


FM Galloway
attack Rose
dead


FM Rose
attack Galloway
dead

[FM Colmyer]

That wasn't really his fault there.
If he lynched one of them, he lost instantly and gave the win to savages or mafia.
He just had to not lynch anyone to see if they'd kill each other.
(Or, he gets lynched, they kill each other....)

[FM Buchwalter]

That wasn't really his fault there.
If he lynched one of them, he lost instantly and gave the win to savages or mafia.
He just had to not lynch anyone to see if they'd kill each other.
(Or, he gets lynched, they kill each other....)

Yeah, but telling them he would not vote one of them was a horrible idea. He should have kept them waiting for the end, in hopes of them missing the deadline for the lynch.

[FM Cafarelli]

Yeah, but telling them he would not vote one of them was a horrible idea. He should have kept them waiting for the end, in hopes of them missing the deadline for the lynch.

this

[FM Green]

Nobody listened to me when I wanted to lynch Galloway :(

[FM Ferengi]

Night 14 Action Prediction Game Results:

Congratulations to FM Green who predicted all of Night 14's actions correctly! He moves into first place with 5 points!

This is the conclusion of the Night Action Prediction Game!
Final standings are listed below.

Congratulations to FM Green!

I'm sorry this didn't get organized sooner since it's been fun to see all of your predictions :D



Name
N13 Prediction Points
N14 Prediction Points
Total


FM Green

3 points (+2 bonus points)
5 points


FM Bishop
1 point
2 points
3 points


FM Buchwalter
2 points
1 point
3 points


FM Cafarelli
1 point
2 points
3 points


FM Chapman

2 points
2 points


FM Parker

2 points
2 points


FM Earle

1 point
1 point


FM Mendez

1 point
1 point


FM Monroe
1 point
0 points
1 point


FM Colmyer
0 points

0 points

[FM Buchwalter]

Night 14 Action Prediction Game Results:

Congratulations to FM Green who predicted all of Night 14's actions correctly! He moves into first place with 5 points!

This is the conclusion of the Night Action Prediction Game!
Final standings are listed below.

Congratulations to FM Green!

I'm sorry this didn't get organized sooner since it's been fun to see all of your predictions :D



Name
N13 Prediction Points
N14 Prediction Points
Total


FM Green

3 points (+2 bonus points)
5 points


FM Bishop
1 point
2 points
3 points


FM Buchwalter
2 points
1 point
3 points


FM Cafarelli
1 point
1 point
2 points


FM Chapman

2 points
2 points


FM Parker

2 points
2 points


FM Earle

1 point
1 point


FM Mendez

1 point
1 point


FM Monroe
1 point
0 points
1 point


FM Colmyer
0 points

0 points






FM Names
N15 Action
N15 Feedback


FM Galloway
attack Rose
dead


FM Rose
attack Galloway
dead



Pretty sure i get four points for that, so I win!

[FM Ferengi]

Pretty sure i get four points for that, so I win!

Sorry, the game is not continuing past Night 14. :p

[FM Cafarelli]

you cheated i should get 2 points for n14 :(
block galloway and kill rose was right

[FM Ferengi]

you cheated i should get 2 points for n14 :(
block galloway and kill rose was right

It wasn't in your table.