Night 7

[Forum Mafia GM]

You have 35 hours to decide. I'll be back later.

[FM Darth Vader]

*Sigh*. I knew he'd be sk as soon as he slipped. How could he be such an idiot? He played so well all game. Killing the right people... Then he went and claimed doc, an incredibly stupid move. But it would've been fine, at least for today, if he could've counted properly. It seems Michigan and I are going to have to pull this out somehow, but it's not looking good... If I can regain the town's trust after tonight I can probably buy myself a few days, but without the sk kill this will much slower and more difficult.

Also the sk kill was easier to predict, since he had many targets over the course of the game. It is clear to me now that Ducky intended to create doubt about Agahnim by not attacking him. An interesting plan, but it failed. I think Agahnim might be the best kill choice for tonight.

The only problem is that I have to figure out who Michigan is going to attack. I'm assuming he'll use the vigilante and not my gun. Hopefully he got my message when I accused him of being witch. It was the only way I could think of to tell him I know who he is. If he understood, this will be much easier going forward. I'm surprised he hasn't gotten a gun yet. I think he may be next since Ceasar appears to dislike giving one to the same person twice. But I digress. Michigan's target.

The problem is that, unlike the sk, I don't have much data with which to determine a pattern. All I've got is his attack on the sheriff, who was an obvious choice. Now that it's not so obvious, I'm not sure how he'll play it. I will have to go through his posts for the day and see if I can find any hints there.

[FM Darth Vader]

*Sigh*. I knew he'd be sk as soon as he slipped. How could he be such an idiot? He played so well all game. Killing the right people... Then he went and claimed doc, an incredibly stupid move. But it would've been fine, at least for today, if he could've counted properly. It seems Michigan and I are going to have to pull this out somehow, but it's not looking good... If I can regain the town's trust after tonight I can probably buy myself a few days, but without the sk kill this will much slower and more difficult.

Also the sk kill was easier to predict, since he had many targets over the course of the game. It is clear to me now that Ducky intended to create doubt about Agahnim by not attacking him. An interesting plan, but it failed. I think Agahnim might be the best kill choice for tonight.

The only problem is that I have to figure out who Michigan is going to attack. I'm assuming he'll use the vigilante and not my gun. Hopefully he got my message when I accused him of being witch. It was the only way I could think of to tell him I know who he is. If he understood, this will be much easier going forward. I'm surprised he hasn't gotten a gun yet. I think he may be next since Ceasar appears to dislike giving one to the same person twice. But I digress. Michigan's target.

The problem is that, unlike the sk, I don't have much data with which to determine a pattern. All I've got is his attack on the sheriff, who was an obvious choice. Now that it's not so obvious, I'm not sure how he'll play it. I will have to go through his posts for the day and see if I can find any hints there.

Let's see what our chances of winning are. Best-case scenario:
kill 3 town (1 w/ blacksmith gun): 8 town vs 3 scum
lynch town: 7 vs 3
kill 3: 4 vs 3
lynch 1: 3 vs 3
Kill 3: scum win

More realistic scenario:
kill 3: 8 vs 3
lynch 1 (spongebob): 8 vs 2
Kill 2, I get shot by bs gun: 6 vs 1
lynch 1: 5 vs 1
kill 2: 3 vs 1
lynch 1: 2 vs 1
kill 1: 1 vs 1

Does scum win ties?

Also they could have some successful heals now that the number of players is dwindling, which those scenarios don't take into account. We'll need to be very careful. I'm fairly certain at least one doc will be on Ceasar, and the other on Sherlock, so it should be safe for me to kill Agahnim. I just need to figure out what Michigan plans to do. I'll go digging through his posts now.

[FM Darth Vader]

I can't find a hint of what he's doing. But I'm guessing he'll try to take out active players from here on. He may shoot Agahnim tonight. The thing is, Agahnim needs to die. And since there is no way for me to be certain about who Michigan will shoot, I'll have to accept the possibility that we'll double tap Agahnim. It costs us an extra kill, but it'll be worth it to ensure he dies.

[Forum Mafia GM]

It pained me to watch you guys not figure out that you blocked him n1...

And yes, as soon as Scum has equal numbers as town, scum wins. Even if Town still has docs/vigs that could easily make them win.

[FM Munchkin]

So you are going to claim being witched tonight? Won't that fail if the vig is witched again, then you would be suspected. You can simply follow ceaser's orders and I could kill Agahnim.

[FM Munchkin]

I honestly didn't believe ducky to be scum and thought it would be best not to vote him because he would lynched anyways.

[Forum Mafia GM]

If sherlock is witched.. and you claim witched, guess who will get lynched for lying? just an obvious observation... don't do it.

[FM Darth Vader]

It pained me to watch you guys not figure out that you blocked him n1...

And yes, as soon as Scum has equal numbers as town, scum wins. Even if Town still has docs/vigs that could easily make them win.

Shit, I forgot we targeted him. To be honest, I forgot we even had a consort, let alone that we actually got some use out of it. We still would have been fine, though. All he had to do was either 1. not claim doc or 2. after claiming doc, count correctly. The fact that he couldn't do either of those things infuriates me.


I honestly didn't believe ducky to be scum and thought it would be best not to vote him because he would lynched anyways.

When I said we'd kill Agahnim, I meant the mafia kill. My blacksmith gun is going to be used on Anubis, as per Ceasar's wishes. I believe after this the town will trust me, at least for a few days. Hopefully that's all we'll need. You're gradually improving, but I fear you will be their most likely lynch target for tomorrow. I'm not going to defend you because I need to remain un-coupled with anyone so they don't know I'm mafia. If you want to push for someone else, however, I suggest Cluseau. I'll probably try to push for him and if successful, it'll buy you another night. If we get really lucky and the blacksmith gun shoots town again tomorrow night (and none of our kills get healed) we'll automatically win.

[FM Darth Vader]

If sherlock is witched.. and you claim witched, guess who will get lynched for lying? just an obvious observation... don't do it.

That was never the plan. I thought it was clear that I intend to shoot Anubis with the blacksmith gun.

[FM Darth Vader]

That was never the plan. I thought it was clear that I intend to shoot Anubis with the blacksmith gun.

Oh, and I think the night 5 blacksmith item was a vest. I believe it was given to either Agahnim or Frog. My guess is Frog since he didn't ask for any blacksmith items yesterday (he did on day 5). Plus, Ceasar doesn't seem to like giving items to the same target twice. Though maybe changing it to a vest helped him justify giving a second item to Agahnim. But even if it's agahnim, I think we have to risk it and hope he doesn't use the vest or that Frog attacks him with us. I'm about 70% sure Frog got it, though.

[FM Darth Vader]

Oh, and I think the night 5 blacksmith item was a vest. I believe it was given to either Agahnim or Frog. My guess is Frog since he didn't ask for any blacksmith items yesterday (he did on day 4). Plus, Ceasar doesn't seem to like giving items to the same target twice. Though maybe changing it to a vest helped him justify giving a second item to Agahnim. But even if it's agahnim, I think we have to risk it and hope he doesn't use the vest or that Frog attacks him with us. I'm about 70% sure Frog got it, though.

woops. I meant day 4. Fixed.

[Forum Mafia GM]

So you are going to claim being witched tonight? Won't that fail if the vig is witched again, then you would be suspected. You can simply follow ceaser's orders and I could kill Agahnim.


That was never the plan. I thought it was clear that I intend to shoot Anubis with the blacksmith gun.

I was just making it clear that if you claim witched when you weren't, its a guarantied death wish. I wouldn't want you to throw all your hard work away.

[FM Darth Vader]

I was just making it clear that if you claim witched when you weren't, its a guarantied death wish. I wouldn't want you to throw all your hard work away.

I appreciate the sentiment. Have any other advice you'd like to share?

[FM Munchkin]

Always nice to have a little advice.

So you suggest I target Aga?

[FM Darth Vader]

Always nice to have a little advice.

So you suggest I target Aga?

Yes.

[FM Darth Vader]

Yes.

Also, in case things really go awry and they somehow lynch me; I think Wile E Coyote will be our best kill for night 8, not accounting for any new information we might get in Day 7. But now that the SK is dead and we know who the witch is, we can pretty much kill/lynch anyone without fear, we just have to try to avoid attacking people who are being healed to maximize efficiency. Based on what the doctors claim tomorrow, we'll know what their plans for healing are and we should be able to evade them and, when the time comes, kill them.

[FM Munchkin]

Then wouldn't it be more to our advantage to target a doc? In all hopes of them not being healed.

[Forum Mafia GM]

So before you guys get stuck in a corner you can't get out of, I want you guys to plan out the next 3 days and nights.

Even though you guys have been doing a bit of math of town number vs scum number, I think you have overlooked the confirmed PR numbers into that equation.

Current role list:

3-Citizen
11-Citizen
16-Citizen
17-Citizen
22-Citizen
28-Citizen
33-Citizen

9-Doctor
14-Vigilante
24-Blacksmith
29-Doctor

5-Mafioso
30-Framer Mafioso
35-Witch

night 7: Eliminating 2 or 3 (if vig targets a cit) cits tonight, you will have 7-8 people trying to claim the final 4-5 cits spots on the role list. (best case scenario is vig kills a doc, but the odds are against it)

day 7: Who is your best chance to cause a mislynch on? Which will in turn reduce another cit claim possible.

night 8: who will you target? a cit? or a PR? will you reduce KPN by targeting PR (vig/blacksmith)? Will your shot be healed?

day 8: how many citizens are left to hide behind? If one of you wasn't lynched day 7, I'd assume one of you be lynched day 8 for calculations.

night 9: whats the kpn? is it still possible to kill PRs without double taps? is it safe to kill a cit and risk exposure during day?


I would just like to remind you that if Witch wins solo, ALL Scum win. So you do not need to be alive at the end.

[FM Munchkin]

Lets say we hit 3 cits tonight..that leaves

4 cits spots left to claims, less for us to fill.

Like I said before, our danger is the PRs due to confirmation. I believe killing a doc would be in our best interest

[FM Darth Vader]

Lets say we hit 3 cits tonight..that leaves

4 cits spots left to claims, less for us to fill.

Like I said before, our danger is the PRs due to confirmation. I believe killing a doc would be in our best interest

The problem with killing them tonight is I'm not sure what their plan is. Several people (Agahnim being one of them, as I recall) suggested the docs heal each other so that neither one could die (at least not from a single attack). So if we attack them and the witch does not, we risk wasting an attack.

However, I do see the problem with leaving the power roles for last. It would be 4 on 3, and the 4 would be easily confirmable to one another. So realistically, we do need to take out some power roles. The question is whether or not the doctors are healing each other tonight, which is why I thought Agahnim might be the best kill (if they're not healing each other they're probably healing Sherlock and/or Ceasar).

I guess we could attack a doc tonight, but if witch has the same idea, we might double tap the same doc.

In any case, our 3 attack choices for tonight are: Agahnim, the Joker, and Captain Obvious. Personally I would save Captain Obvious for last, since he said he believes me to be town, which will help me in the day chat. That leaves Agahnim or The Joker. I suppose The Joker might be best, we just might have to hope Michigan's allegations against Agahnim gain some traction and we can mislynch him. I think a lynch of Cluseau is more likely though.

As far as killing PRs goes or priority is: doc, blacksmith, vig.

So, plan for the next few days:

Tonight: Kill The Joker. If he is doc, yay. If not, Spongebob- feel free to claim it if you are on the chopping block. Be sure to provide targets that 1. Make sense (ie. don't claim to heal someone on a night they died, claim to have healed each of the sheriffs at least once, etc.) 2. count and make sure you have the correct number of targets, keeping in mind that we started at night 1 so there should be 7 targets total tomorrow.

Tomorrow: Lynch Cluseau or Agahnim. I think Cluseau is more likely, but if we can go with Michigan's accusation against Agahnim, even better.

Night 8: Kill Captain Obvious or Ceasar. Ceasar may require double-tap, so I'm thinking Obvious would be easier. But by then he may have a vest from Ceasar.

Day 8: Lynch Cluseau or Agahnim (whichever wasn't lynched day 7). If both are dead by this point, or it is clear that there is not enough support to lynch either of them, I'd say Gimli is a good backup (this also applies to day 7)

Night 9: Ideally our KPN is still 2 (us +witch/vig). At this point it would be prudent to take out Ceasar. I have been hesitant to do so thus far, because he was kind of helping us (and there was likely to be a doc or two on him), but the fact that he's confirmed will be starting to bite us in the ass around now, so it's for the best.

Day 9: If we have successfully killed all our targets (and witch has as well) town will only have 5 players left. And that is not taking into account the possible 3 additional blacksmith kills (At least 2 of which will hit town, I expect) which would put us at 3 vs 2. Lynch anyone who isn't us or Michigan and the victory is ours.

[FM Darth Vader]

Spongebob- feel free to claim it if you are on the chopping block. Be sure to provide targets that 1. Make sense (ie. don't claim to heal someone on a night they died, claim to have healed each of the sheriffs at least once, etc.) 2. count and make sure you have the correct number of targets, keeping in mind that we started at night 1 so there should be 7 targets total tomorrow.

Keep in mind this is an absolute last resort. And if you do this, be sure to re-read the other doc's so you don't claim to have healed Yosemite the night he died (for example) since another doc will call that out as bullshit, and they'll likely believe him over you. But also be prepared to defend your reasoning for NOT healing him.

The only way this would be a good idea is if Obvious does something that makes people doubt his claim and think the real 2nd doc is unclaimed. You would likely get killed either that night, or the day after, but if you get a doc lynched in the process it would be worth it. But as I said ABSOLUTE LAST RESORT. In any other circumstance, just try to convince them you're a citizen and act towny as hell.

[FM Darth Vader]

Keep in mind this is an absolute last resort. And if you do this, be sure to re-read the other doc's claims

Edited

[Forum Mafia GM]

Can I please get a clear indication of who Munchkin is going to kill tonight? Typing in the mafia chat will do, don't need a PM, just make it red or something so I can see it as an official action instead of speculation.

[Forum Mafia GM]

Tonight: Kill The Joker.

Based off what I've read, this is the current night action.