Night 6

[Forum Mafia GM]

You have lost your leader... will the rest of you be able to survive without getting modkilled?

[FM Darth Vader]

I don't think I'm in any danger of being mod-killed. My mafioso, on the other hand... I have no idea.

[FM Darth Vader]

Has he even logged in within the last 24 hours?

[Forum Mafia GM]

He was online 4 hours ago... I'm highly tempted to kill him off too but... then scum would be loosing all their chances.

Yayap kicks Spongebob in the rear trying to kick start him into active players.

[FM Darth Vader]

Any chance you could replace him with Locutus or Pinkie?

[Yayap]

I'm thinking about it...

[FM Darth Vader]

If I'm going to be killed tonight you could replace him with me, I suppose. But it would be nice to have someone to bounce ideas off of tonight...

[Forum Mafia GM]

I'm bouncy. =)

[FM Darth Vader]

Ok. Well on my potential kill list for tonight I have:
Ceasar
Agahnim
Cluseau
Anubis

Out of those, I believe Cluseau already has a decent amount of suspicion on him and may be lynched/shot already. So probably not.

Though it is light, there is still some suspicion on Agahnim as well, leading me to think it might be wise to frame him again in the hope that Yosemite takes the bait and he'll get lynched, but even if I do successfully frame him, they do know there is a framer, so they might write it off and look elsewhere. Plus, if he dies, the town might get suspicious of Michigan (since he has been very vocally suspicious of Agahnim) and lynch him, which would be an absolute nightmare for numerous reasons.

Ceasar seems like a really good target, because he's decently active, confirmed town, and a power role, and they may not even be a doctor on him tonight since there are now 3 PRs and only 2 doctors... BUT he also seems to trust me, which can make him valuable to me in the day chat, and I think there's a chance he may even give me an item tonight. Since our kill comes first, killing him tonight would prevent him from giving me an item.

That leaves Anubis. My main reason for killing him is that he has recently become more active and maintains his claim of doc. I'm beginning to believe that he might really be doc, and that the claim might be reverse-psychology ("doc would never claim, he can't be doc!", etc.) But the trouble with WIFOM is that I could go back and forth on that all day.

So based on that, it would seem that the award for best kill target of night 6 is Anubis. At least if he isn't doc, I'd be killing a semi-active player who has little suspicion on him. And if he does turn out to be doc, even better.

What say you, oh wise and powerful Game Master?

[Forum Mafia GM]

I say you should read the previous mafia night threads. Anubis was checked by your Consig. =)

[FM Darth Vader]

Wait, really?! How did I miss that?! Ok, checking now...

[FM Darth Vader]

Oh, I see. You used the phrase "consig's target" and I had forgotten who the target was. I'm sure I intended to go back and check, but I obviously forgot to do that as well. Ok, so Anubis is a citizen. The rest of my argument for killing him still stands... But there's a part of me that would really like to hit a doctor. I also wouldn't be surprised if the sk or witch chose to target Anubis, since they don't have that information at their disposal. Hmm...

[FM Darth Vader]

I suppose Hamburglar and King Arthur are options. But I've noticed that Arthur hasn't mentioned my name at all. He's never voted for me, even when many people were, he's never indicated any kind of suspicion of me, and he seems to ignore portions of the comments of others that mention me. This leads to believe that Arthur might be the sk and has perhaps attacked me on one of the nights in which the sk kill was missing. While attacking him and confirming this could be useful, we do really need kills at this stage...

Hamburglar seems to be in the sweet spot between inactive and scummy. Most suspicion on him seems to have evaporated. He has been posting more lately. He might make a good kill target.

[Forum Mafia GM]

Sometimes, Citizens can be the biggest threat since they don't fear speaking their minds. PRs have a fear of dying and town loosing a night ability, where as Cits can lead the town to victory in the day chat.

Evaluate what is more important right now, controlling the night actions or the day chat? What will lead scum to victory or what will be their downfall? Will it be the town having KPN/detecting you? Or will it be town grouping you all together and lynching you?

Also there are multiple PRs in the open that may be used by the witch. Try to predict his actions with the SK to try not to overlap (or do try to overlap to bypass doctors)

[Forum Mafia GM]

Just a note, you would be notified if you were attacked by SK... The GF just got the extra bonus of learning his name.

[FM Darth Vader]

Just a note, you would be notified if you were attacked by SK... The GF just got the extra bonus of learning his name.

Oh. I guess I misunderstood that in the setup. Ok, so I definitely haven't been attacked... And no one else in the mafia reported being attacked... So sk has probably attacked the witch. There are two missing sk kills, but no one claims healed, so... I guess the sk forgot to kill night one, and the second missing death was when SK found the witch. So we all know who the witch is. That's a good start, I guess. Arthur could still be the sk, just not for the reasons I mentioned before...

In terms of evaluating what I want to control, the thing is I think we need both. If we control the night, but lose the day, we can still get lynched as proved today. If we control the day, but not the night, there is a vigilante and a blacksmith who can hunt us down.

Michigan has a pretty good command of the day chat. But he does not know we are allies. He may even throw the vigilante my way, though if he does so, I doubt it will be tonight.

Everyone's theory in the day chat was that scum would band together for a triple kill on yosemite to bypass the doctors. While I'm tempted to attack Yosemite for this very purpose, I have to wonder if the other two will act accordingly. If any one of us doesn't attack him, we waste potential kills.

Michigan is a very smart player. He has been trusted by the town all game. None have questioned his alignment until very recently, but that suspicion is minor at best. He will almost certainly not target Ceasar. Ceasar trusts him, and may give him (he might have even done so last night) an item of his own accord. So there seems to be little incentive to target him. That leaves the sheriff or the vigilante.

Targeting the sheriff, as he has been doing all game, is wasting his talents. It is acting as a roleblock when he has the capacity to be so much more. The vigilante allows the witch to realize its full potential, and I believe Michigan will recognize this and control the vigilante. So the question becomes: will Michigan shoot Yosemite, or someone else. If he's going to shoot a power role, he can't cause self targets, so the vigilante is safe. Ceasar too is likely safe, for the same reasons I mentioned above. So if he's going to kill a PR, it will be Yosemite. He clearly places some amount of importance on the sheriff's abilities, because he has dedicated himself to thwarting them up until this point. But he will only attack Yosemite now if he believes we will do the same. And that's where it gets tricky. The sk has so far picked very good targets. His attack on Indian was quite a gamble, but one that paid off. All his other targets have been fairly active players. I think the sk might go along with the sheriff plan, and Michigan could put this together and decide to do it with him.

However, they both also have to factor in our kill when it comes to making this decision. Our kills have been pretty difficult to predict thus far, as town has pointed out several times. At first we seemed to target only lurkers, but then we hit Jack Sparrow, a very active player. Of course, Yosemite is practically a lurker, so he basically fits the description of our most common victims. Plus, the sk and the witch both know we have the same information that they do; which is that with the witch controlling the vig, we can eliminate the sheriff and will no longer fear detection. This will make my night ability useless, of course, but will still be a huge boon.

Then again, there is another way to go... It's much more risky, but has the potential to be very rewarding as well... Kills go before heals. Which means if I can kill a doctor tonight, not only will a vig/sk overlap be able to kill the sheriff, but we'll kill a doctor as well.

I'm about to go eat dinner, but I will return in a couple hours to consider this further.

[FM Munchkin]

Controlling the masses and the best step early/mid game. Now that we are reaching the end, PRs are the ones starting to dominate the field, and that is what is becoming the most dangerous for us.

The blacksmith has be nothing but a help to us, and I would not recommend disposing of him until the very end..unless necessary. More KPN, the better.
As long as the witch lives, we should never need to touch the vig.
I also agree with your point in attacking the doctors, but I believe it would be more useful to hit a confirm PR tonight....only being Yosemite. Either way it's a risk of not working...... But I still have a feeling that the vig and/or will have to target Yosemite tonight due to the wonderful suggestion someone made, but nothing is guaranteed.

I'm willing to go for the shot at sheriff and hope for the best.




Oh and btw, thanks Yapyap, I guess I'll be sure not to sign up for anymore FMs again. S-FM is more I style I suppose

[Forum Mafia GM]

I have a hard time justifying not modkilling you / concealing you as scum if I modkill the other players. It become obvious that I'm protecting you sometimes.

[FM Darth Vader]

Solution: For the love of jesus/yahweh/flying spaghetti monster/buddha/atheism/whatever, Spongebob - POST MORE

Make up a bullshit excuse about your life if you have to justify your inactivity, but for fuck's sake be active. It's hard enough for me to remain undetected as is. I had to sacrifice Locutus today; don't force me to do the same to you.

[FM Darth Vader]

And if you wish to go for the sheriff tonight, then I'll support you. But if we fail to kill the sheriff tonight, we do not target him for attack again until both doctors are dead and we've ensured that he doesn't have a vest.

For my frame target I'm thinking of trying Agahnim one more time. I'm also tempted toward Robin Hood, but I think the Sheriff may avoid him because he makes too obvious a target for me. Of course, if we're successful in killing the sheriff, my target won't matter, but it never hurts to have a backup.

[Forum Mafia GM]

I'm also tempted toward Robin Hood

BOING!


Day 5 has ended.

Modkill:
31- FM Robin Hood: RaikouRider

Role list:
23-Citizen: FM Robin Hood - Struck down by Sith Lightning!

Player List:
31- FM Robin Hood: Citizen - Struck down by Sith Lightning!


Told you I was bouncy. =)

[FM Darth Vader]

I'm going away for again for another hour or so, but while I'm gone Spongebob, I have homework for you: Find the sk and the doctors.

Tell me who you think might be the sk/doc and why. We know that me, you, Gimli, Anubis, Michigan, Yosemite, Ceasar, and Sherlock are not sk/doc. That's 8/17 people that we can already eliminate. So examine the remaining 9, and see if you can figure out what they are.

[FM Darth Vader]

BOING!



Told you I was bouncy. =)

Oh, right. Man I'm forgetful lately. I literally read that just a couple hours ago. Welp. Anubis it is, then.

[FM Darth Vader]

Oh, right. Man I'm forgetful lately. I literally read that just a couple hours ago. Welp. Anubis it is, then.

Woops. I meant Agahnim.

Spongebob still hasn't done his homework. I'll probably end up doing it myself anyway, but it'd be nice if he'd do it too.

[FM Munchkin]

It might be best for you to replace me then to assist in mafia not being detected.... I've spent hours reading up and down the past days, and you know what? It seems I suck at reading people.

You have your players that seemed to have lurked as much as myself, and yet failed to provide any information what so ever like King Tut. I try to make it a point to only post when I'm able to provide some insight in some way and avoid the useless comment when possible. If fact, do to this, it makes me believe that Tut is SK(being protected as you said you were doing with me), but by action, looks like a cit in my eyes. (Honestly do think he is a cit, but by your comments above, I'm questioning the lurkers now)

[FM Darth Vader]

Alright, here goes. I'm making this up as I go, so it's going to be very stream of consciousness. I'll start by sorting everything out.

List of living players:

01- FM Agahnim
03- FM Anubis (citizen)
06- FM Captain Obvious
07- FM Ceasar
14- FM Gimli (citizen)
15- FM Hamburglar
18- FM Inspector Cluseau
21- FM King Arthur
22- FM King Tut
26- FM Michigan J Frog (witch)
32- FM Rubber Ducky
33- FM Sherlock (vigilante)
34- FM SpongeBob (mafioso)
35- FM The Joker
38- FM Wile E Coyote
39- FM Wolverine (framer)
42- FM Yosemite Sam (sheriff)

Removing the players whose roles are already known to us gives us a list of people who can be doc/sk:

01- FM Agahnim
06- FM Captain Obvious
15- FM Hamburglar
18- FM Inspector Cluseau
21- FM King Arthur
22- FM King Tut
32- FM Rubber Ducky
35- FM The Joker
38- FM Wile E Coyote

Of these 9 players, 2 must be doctors, 1 must be the serial killer, 6 must be citizens.

Now let's sort by post frequency:

Really Active:
01- FM Agahnim
21- FM King Arthur

Somewhat active:
15- FM Hamburglar
18- FM Inspector Cluseau
06- FM Captain Obvious
38- FM Wile E Coyote

Lurking/inactive:
22- FM King Tut
32- FM Rubber Ducky
35- FM The Joker

Post frequency is by no means the sole indicator of alignment/role. Indeed, this very FM has contained several lurking citizens, a lurking jailor, and seven, count 'em, SEVEN lurking mafia members!

But in day 5 we saw dramatically increased posting frequency (read: from ~1 post per day to ~4 posts on day 5) from Rubber Ducky and The Joker, with a marginal increase from King Tut.

Considering that Rubber Ducky was on the modkill list, it is interesting that he is still alive. This means that he pmed last night. Given that the majority of his posts were in day 1 (all of which were useless) and he didn't even post at all day 4, it would seem that he doesn't care enough about the game to participate, yet he does care enough that he doesn't want to be removed. This could be the behavior of a doc or a serial killer.

Assuming he is a doc/sk the question is... Which is he? Many of his qualities (ie. lurking, being useless, appearing not to care about the FM, but secretly caring) can be interpreted as both scum tells and as a hiding TPR. My first instinct would place him as the serial killer because his posts are so absolutely worthless to town. But then I thought about it some more, and I've realized that this is highly unlikely. For reasons I will explain more further down in this post, I believe the sk to be hiding amongst the active players. I think Rubber Ducky is, in fact, a doctor. I'm currently about 60% certain of this.

Since no one else of note was on the modkill list (Gimli and Spongebob were, but we've already ruled both of them out of our investigation) and no one else stands out to me, this time I'll approach starting not with the player, but with the role. All we know about the sk is who he's attacked/killed, so let's start there.

The sk's kills thus far have been:
N1- None (most likely forgot/didn't make it in time)
N2- The Terminator
N3- None (I believe this is when he attacked Michigan)
N4- Master Chef
N5- Indian Jones

The Terminator, Michigan J Frog, and Master Chef were/are all extremely active players (Terminator had over 50 posts for the single day he was alive, the other two have been consistently posting many times a day) and Indiana was a confirmed Sheriff. That means the sk made sure to pick targets that were good contributors. The sk is trying to silence the town. The sk wants control over the day chat. This leads me to believe that the sk is an active player. What good is having control of the day chat unless you intend to use it? Plus, a player who doesn't check the FM as often, is less likely to be aware of which players are and are not active. I think the two people most likely to be sk are Agahnim and King Arthur. As I write this, I am beginning to realize that Agahnim has a very high probability of being the sk. If Agahnim does not die to the sk by day 7, I think it will be safe to assume Agahnim is the sk.

After attacking Master Chef, I'd have surely thought that Agahnim or Jack Sparrow would be the next sk target, since they were the two most active remaining players. Yet the sk decided to take a huge risk and attack the sheriff. I'll admit, this is where my train of thought derails a bit. I don't have an explanation for why he didn't choose to attack Jack Sparrow. I might be able to come up with one once I've gotten some sleep (it's 5AM, I really should go to bed...). But whatever the reasoning was, it left him with two options: hunt PRs, or stab randomly. He decided to take a risk on Indiana Jones and was successful. Tonight, he is likely to join us in killing the sheriff. But tomorrow night is anyone's guess. My bet is that if Agahnim isn't killed by the sk tomorrow night, Agahnim is the sk.

For the time being, I still intend to frame Agahnim. If I'm wrong about him being the sk, my framing might get him lynched, which would help us. If I'm correct and Agahnim is the sk, if he's checked by sheriff, my framing allows him a defense ("I was framed!") whereas getting caught as a neutral would have no defense and mean certain death. Of course, if everything goes to plan, the sheriff's already checked his last target, but you can never be too careful.

I wanted to go more in depth but I am beginning to fall asleep at my desk, so I will continue my thoughts tomorrow.

And Spongebob, this does not mean you are off the hook. I want you to make a post like this too. And please don't just agree with everything I said. I want you to bring new ideas to the table.

[FM Munchkin]

Did you seriously wait this entire time for me to post? Now I feel like an ass.

[FM Darth Vader]

Part 2!

I mentioned in that post that King Arthur might be sk, but basically decided to assume that Agahnim was. Looking back on it, King Arthur is about equally likely to be sk. I think night 7's sk target will tell us all we need to know. In all likelihood if Agahnim dies, then King Arthur is the sk, if King Arthur dies, it is Agahnim.

It would be lovely to have a consigliere to confirm my suspicions, but that would be too easy... So in the meantime we will attack the sheriff in the hopes that we will cut off town's last source of WIFOM-free information, and from there we should have a good command of the day chat, which will grant us a similar command of the night.

The last piece of the puzzle will be ensuring that Michigan doesn't throw the vigilante our way, which will be rather difficult to do without alerting the town. Perhaps once Agahnim/King Arthur is dead we could get away with it. But for now I'll hope that Michigan's real scum hunting is as good as his fake scum hunting and he already has us marked as probable allies.

[FM Darth Vader]

Did you seriously wait this entire time for me to post? Now I feel like an ass.

Don't just feel like an ass... Do something about it! Post!

[FM Munchkin]

I wouldn't be to sure about the Arthur/Agahim therom. Just remember that if we do wind up killing the sheriff, the SK was required to target him as well, So neither would be dead.

[FM Darth Vader]

I wouldn't be to sure about the Arthur/Agahim therom. Just remember that if we do wind up killing the sheriff, the SK was required to target him as well, So neither would be dead.

I know. That's why I said day 7. As that would be the day following night 7, which is the night after this one.

[Forum Mafia GM]

I'm locking Night Actions in.

Frame Agahnim.
Kill Sam!



Well, I have good news and bad news.




The Bad News is the SK didn't target Sam.

...

The Good news is neither did a doctor. lol