Night Three

[TheJackofSpades]

Good to see you're still alive. I would have liked for the SK to live another day so you could by proxy live another day but alas.

It seems I was wrong about Divemaster, but I bet you've got some good things to tell me, so I'll wait to theorycraft until after I hear what you have to say.

[Raiden]

I actually can't believe my ass has been saved again. I will make sure to thank procyon, goon and apparently elixir's mistake.

Anyway, you are correct. I was about 90% sure the sk was culted, because FalseTruth is the REAL hooker, and he is also culted (i got confirmed by elixir that this time i couldn't have been fooled by the framer). This means falsetruth was the cult leader's first target, who then proceeded to indicate the name of the sk.
Nevertheless, the situation is grim. All our targets were citizens, despite our attempts to avoid them. By now, i think we know the names of all investigating roles in the town, who should be Goon & Narks as Sheriffs and MileS as the lone Investigator. All the bad guys are in a pretty bad shape, while the town is rampaging.

On the bright side, if we were chosen to be in a pro-town scenario, this is the best situation in which we could be. We know the names of all cultists (bar the cult leader) as well as one member of the other mafia. This means that we basically know half of the power roles in the game (not including us), and 4 citizens are dead. Since you are undetectable, and in a pretty good spot, i believe this will make the difference in the long run.

My last minute claim, together with my early posts should have hinted that i know a lot about the cultists, and since they are in control of half the current romano mafia, i think i will make it through this night, gun wielders permitting.

Our kill, and it's success, will determinate if i shall live another day. I think we have two major choices to make:
1) we sacrice myself and attempt to guarantee your lone victory in the long run: long story short, we pick a random town target and hope he's the doctor.
2) we try to save my ass once again and attempt to kill Goonswarm. MileS is probably armored at this point, but hopefully FalseTruth will be smart enough to roleblock him again. At that point i will proceed to make the town know that FalseTruth is culted, thus denying 3 people - CL + 2 cultists - the possibility to vote me. Make that 5, if we include ourselves, and possibly 6 with the jester. I REALLY REALLY hope a mason will misrecruit and smash his face on the Romano mafioso, which i think to be either Auckmid or SAS, or better yet the cult leader, whom we believe to be vornksr (on a side note, i will not be talking of that issue anymore, it's the only thing that ties me and you so far, and we must avoid that at all costs). If everything goes according to this plan, the town won't even have enough votes to hammer me, but i recognize it will be extremely hard.
We risk greatly to find an healed target or to incur in a double kill, which will grant the town even higher chances of winning.

I don't know what to say about Narks, i think he will be targeted by the Romanos due to him being the only 100% proven sheriff so far, and he also claimed to have a gun. If this is the case, i hope he won't be healed by the doctor. For all we know, Ozymandias could be the doctor. That would be fun.

The cult will target either MileS or myself, depending if they believe i have the potential to survive or if i will be instalynched just like the SK was. Should i be culted, i can only suggest them to recruit you too, as you would be by far the best member they could have and increase our winning chances by a million percent. Not that i really hope for this to become true, because the cult is quite in a bad shape right now, but if it happens, it happens.

Now i really need a LOT of theorycrafting for my next investigation target. Let's divide this in multiple posts, i might have reached the cap, rofl.

[Raiden]

So, this is my updated list of roles and people:

Godfather[De Luca] = TheJackofSpades
Consigliere[De Luca] = Raiden
Mafioso[Romano] = SAS/Auckmid
Hooker[Romano] = FalseTruth - CULTED
Cult Leader = vornksr?
Jester = No clues, needs further reading
Executioner = Crimson
Mason = Severn
Sheriff = Narks
Sheriff = Goonswarm
Investigator = MileS
Doctor = No clues, needs further reading
Gunsmith = No clues, needs further reading
Armorsmith = No clues, needs further reading
Citizen/Mason = Spy (fairly high chances)
Citizen/Mason = I don't think this spot is filled with a mason, but still, no clues.
Citizen = Yayap (not really sure)
Citizen = Rumpel (not really sure)
Citizen = Ozymandias (almost certain)
Citizen = Illidan (almost certain)

Remaining people:
monster: seems very concerned in lynching precise targets, i don't think he's the jester.
Ganondorf: extremely confused about the game.
McPwnage: extremely confused about the game despite this being his second time.
NorthStar: Not very interested into the game, might be a citizen.

This was all done without carefully reading the second day and rereading the first day, because i don't have much time now. I will be doing so tomorrow. Your insight will be enormously appreciated.

[TheJackofSpades]

I'll sit down and take an hour or so to re-read through the first two days and take more notes. Expect to see it sometime tonight.

My gut tells me Goon will be unprotected tonight, and it's our best chance to remove him before he becomes immortal. I'll think on it, I'd prefer to extend your life as long as possible.

[Raiden]

I'll sit down and take an hour or so to re-read through the first two days and take more notes. Expect to see it sometime tonight.

My gut tells me Goon will be unprotected tonight, and it's our best chance to remove him before he becomes immortal. I'll think on it, I'd prefer to extend your life as long as possible.


Ok, thank you :) i am going to bed now, sorry to leave you alone. I will be back in 8-10 hours, as usual.

[TheJackofSpades]

Day 1 Post Count
FalseTruth: 3
AscendedOne: Forgot to count :D
Illidan: 18
Ganondorf: 26
Spy: 27
Raiden: 38
monster: 21
vornskr: 94
Rumpel: 10
oops: 15
Yayap: 17
TheJackofSpades: 12
MileS: 25
SaS: 10
Divemaster: 17
McPwnage: 8
Narks: 7
Crimson: 23
Auckmid: 19
Goonswarm: 18
Claw: 16
Severn: 25
NorthStar: 3
MrSmarter: 16
Procyon: 12
Ozymandias: 0

Take a look at vornskr, i dont even know what to say to that. I have plans for this count, will take a little while to put it together though.

[TheJackofSpades]

My notes will be a bit delayed, I fell asleep really early last night so I didn't get a chance to take a look at them. Counting all dem posts took a lot out of me.

[Raiden]

I'm sure it did, that's a ginormous amount of work. Well done. I am now taking my time to reread all the posts from day 1 and day 2, with the all new perspectives we have got so far. This is going to take some time, too.

A couple things i would like you to think about:

1) The cult leader learned A LOT of info during night 2 due to the recruitment of Procyon. Besides the framer, he learned the names of the other Romano mafioso and the SK, as well as the hooker itself. His behavior should reflect that, at least a little. I don't think we shall find the cult leader in one of the early voters, such as vornksr is.

The votes order was the following: Goon, Raiden, Severn, Illidan, vornksr, NorthStar, Yayap, Auckmid, McPwnage, Crimson, FalseTruth.
I strongly believe at least the first 8 voters are town, exception made for me because i just wanted to survive one more day. It would not make a lot of sense that our best bet as the cult leader voted to lynch one of his most valuable assets when he was not even halfway to the hammer vote. It's true that even FalseTruth hammered it, but an hammer vote is something completely different from a midway vote.
Monster, on the other hand, tried his best to avoid that lynch. While this is consistent with him prolonging the first day, it is also consistent with him being the cult leader. What do you think about this?

2) Again about vornksr, his post count is astoundingly high. He made more than double the posts than the second in list, who would be me. And i am checking these forums like 12 hours a day, you know. He also accused quite a lot of people, changed his mind a lot of times, for the most different reasons. Would it make sense for him to be the jester? He doesn't even try to defend from our accusations on him to be cult leader/culted.

I am not finished reading the whole thing. It's... long. I mean really. I will post further analysis in a while.

[TheJackofSpades]

You make some good points. I'm not sure what to think of vornskr in that regard, if he is the jester and he expects to be lynched as cult leader he's gonna find it really hard considering that he's basically banking on the fact that none of the killing roles will go after him before being culted or killed.

Monster being the cult leader is possible, dragging the lurkers out gives more information to him by making the people who would prefer not to post such as the doctor and smiths into actually talking which makes them vulnerable. I will think on this.

My only regret yesterday is that I underestimated the town's zeal vs the SK, I thought the day would last longer so I went to do other things only to come back to see the day had already ended which puts me in a bad spot.

[TheJackofSpades]

Oh, one more thing. With this new theory in mind, I find it odd that Monster made such a big deal about lurkers but has yet to address the fact that Ozymandias has not spoken at all.

[Raiden]

Well there are a lot of people who didn't actually have time to post again, although monster is not one of these. SAS was present but didn't vote either, although he threw some trollposts here and there, especially after the hammer vote. He might be a potential cult leader candidate, but i am incline to stick with the romano mafioso theory, which would still make sense.

Also after reading something about NorthStar, i cannot think of anything but a citizen. He isn't really paying attention to the game, for a first timer it's very bad and boring to have a non-power role. I know that by experience.
If this is correct, our citizen list is filled. Non-listed people are all power roles of some sort.

My best guesses at the currently unknown town power roles (mostly random, though...):
Doctor = Auckmid
Armorsmith = Ganondorf
Gunsmith = McPwnage

[Raiden]

I will be posting about my last will and defense as soon as we agree on our targets for kill and investigation.

If we attack Goonswarm, i believe i shall investigate Auckmid. Everything has been said about him, however we are still extremely unsure about him. All we "know" is that he's probably some sort of power role (lol @ MrSmarter, he's the most unlucky investigator in the history of mafia).

If we attempt to kill Auckmid instead, i think monster would make a fine target. Chances are, if Goon survives, i will die tomorrow, but i will be able to leave you a last will using our special code.

Third option, you tell me. This is what i came up with after reading and analyzing all i thought of in the last 4 hours.

[TheJackofSpades]

I'm taking a very large risk here in more ways than one, the smarter play would be to cut our losses and continue seeking out the other town power roles.

But Goon has challenged me, and I shall not back down from it. Hopefully WIFOM shines favorably on us, it depends on how experienced the doctor is(which I believe will help us in finding him even more). We know that the armorsmith and doctor aren't culted yet so it comes down to whether or not the doctor thinks we will kill him. I would think the smart move for the cult to do is to kill Goon as well, but who knows.

There are risks involved, most notably if Goon puts together our one connection, but I've already got defenses in mind to both counter an argument raised against my suspicions of Goon as well as why I didn't vote for Oops(composed of two different points). But WIFOM also lends some credence to that as well.

Monster, Ganondorf, McPwnage are all good canditates for the next investigation IMO. We need to know where monster stands and Ganondorf and Mcpwnage are likely the few remaining power roles. I am also becoming slightly concerned with the masons, as them trying to recruit me would be very bad at this point.

[Raiden]

Yes, the way of thinking of the doctor is crucial at this point of the game.

What would we do if we were doctors? Goon said he would be investigating me, one of the hottest target in the town. The argument between me and miles is the key to the town's victory, so if i were to believe goon to be a sheriff, i would definitely heal him. I would think that miles is armored, and that narks is expendable.

Now, would i believe goon to be a sheriff? if elixir didn't admit his mistake, i probably wouldn't. He hasn't claimed anything particularly hard to figure out by the simplest of citizens. But that post by elixir... you can't really argue with that.

That being said, we have a hooker to deal with. At first i thought they would block miles, but any of miles claims against me would prove nothing, really. They might even roleblock goon for us.

I shall ask you a couple questions:

- if you were the romanos, or a gun wielder townie, would you shot me at this point?
- if you were the culted hooker, who would you block in order to increase your chances of winning?

I am having an hard time trying to figure out those possibilities at the moment. There are an awful lot of targets, and only so much shot/blocks.

[Raiden]

Oh and, about the masons, i am positive that they will increase their number to 3 tonight, probably by recruiting rumpel or yayap (they are the only ones who openly claimed citizen, i would go for them). Yes, they are becoming a threat. You are probably their next priority after those two, and should that happen, we are screwed badly. Is there anything we can do about it? Not really, not now.

[TheJackofSpades]

I would block Goon, and cult MileS if I was in the cult's shoes right now. That takes care of all the credible investigative roles. MileS will basically be proven to be indisputable investigator which will be a huge asset to the cult over a sheriff.

I would also not kill you at this point if I was the cult controlled romano, as it stalls another lynch day, there's no point in killing you when they can easily just sit and wait for the lynch.

[TheJackofSpades]

Since you are going to implicate Ganondorf, please check McPwnage tonight if you would. I will go along as plan and attempt to kill Goon.

[Raiden]

Ok, i think i agree with that. It's very plausible.

I really hope the doctor won't use my logic. And even then, i think i will be checked by miles too... i hope he gets citizen.

Let's do this.

check McPwnage

[Elixir]

Since you are going to implicate Ganondorf, please check McPwnage tonight if you would. I will go along as plan and attempt to kill Goon.


/Alladin genie

Now is that an official wish?

Come on say the magic words

[TheJackofSpades]

Sorry Elixir, but I will be delaying this night as long as possible to give Raiden as much time as possible tomorrow to defend himself or do what he will.

Since I assume you are waiting on me. :)

[TheJackofSpades]

P.S. Very cross with you right now for making Goon unlynchable.

[Raiden]

Oh hai Elixir!

Be sending my last will right now.

Also thanks Jack, this is appreciated.

Good night everyone :)

[TheJackofSpades]

After learning how time zones work, I have discovered that it is still 9:51 in PDT. I hope I have stalled enough because I am gettin' sleepy.

Kill Goonswarm, Send TheJackofSpades