Night Two

[Raiden]

Holy shit, this was one hell of a day.

First of all, i would like you to know why i did what i did.
When i saw Zack dead and a guilty result on Clawtrocity, i started thinking to make my investigator claim sooner than what we thought, because it would not be useful anymore for our defense as Zack was the one who needed it the most.
Then, i proceeded to post some void content, waiting for something to happen, until some people brought up the idea of random lynching and of course with my luck i have also been designated as the first random target by Rumpel.

After that, 3 sheriffs claimed, and two targets were being accused. I wouldn’t believe a single word from narks, but the other two looked legit. If MrSmarter was going to be lynched and found mafia (i honestly believed he was), the sheriffs would get all the protection, leaving me open for a night death.
So i came up with the “bad guy name” expedient, in order to at least gain some more survivability, by doing so suggesting myself as an investigator.

Then, the most unexpected thing i would ever imagine happened before my eyes. I was pretty sure at that point that MrSmarter was town, but not a fucking investigator. I was shocked, and i am ashamed of myself for not having thought of that. Knowing that he couldn’t be the consigliere, he was bound to be found as investigator when he was lynched, and since this would also clear MileS, i had to improvise.

Meanwhile, Clawtrocity had already thrown some random accuses here and there, giving in to random lynches, hinting himself as an investigator and in the end not claiming his role. MrSmarter was also probably framed, or target of the executioner. This was an extremely suspicious behavior, so i was convinced that he was not the one who have been framed, and that my hooker result was indeed correct. I tried to get him down and gain credibility as an investigator while keeping the other two claimed invests alive as well as the framer.

I know this was not a prudent move, i know the risk when i started to gamble, but the truth is, how many chances did we have to win this game even if i stayed silent? Only 1 mere citizen and our allied mafioso died. Even killing claw at night would have not served any purpose, unless i accused him first.
If only one investigator didn’t check the other one, or got a citizen result, this would have been a pretty good idea. But thing went the way they went, and i can’t do anything but apologize to you.

What needs to be done now is:
1) organize my last will, in which i will surely accuse Clawtrocity. He’s getting so lynched tomorrow.
2) Just in case i survive this night (very unlikely due to the sk and gun wielder), plan my defense for tomorrow. I guess i will be playing framed very hard.
3) Who to kill?
4) Who to check? Although this will probably be irrelevant.

[TheJackofSpades]

It's okay, you did what you had to do. I think I'm in a pretty good spot, even more so if Claw gets lynched because it'll severely decrease his credibility of accusing me as the framer.

In regards to kills, here's a few routes we can take:

Masons: I am almost positive that AscendedOne and Severn are masons

We can hit vornskr, whom I believe is likely the cult leader.

We can hit Auckmid, who I'm fairly sure is a power role of some sort. He's acting way different than last game.

We can try and go for an orange mafia kill, most likely FalseTruth or SAS

I'm open to suggestions, who do you perceive to be the biggest threat at this moment? I for one find the town to be rather strong.

[Raiden]

Let's examine our situation and see what are the most likely scenarios to happen tomorrow.

If i die, claw will almost certainly be lynched, i think that's a given. He is by far the most suspicious target atm, after the clearing of MileS and my evidence as an investigating role. I honestly can't believe he has been framed. Him believing that i was a true investigator after i claimed his role leads me to believe this even more. I will point this out in my last will.

A lot of stuff depends on MrSmarter being the executioner target or not. If he was, town might be in a pretty bad shape by tomorrow. However, i can almost guarantee that either the Romano have the SK under control, or the SK knows your name. He couldn't possibly be afk, i checked all the players for activity and there was none inactive as of july 31, when all roles were out.

Our best hit at this point would be the doctor or the armorsmith, since you will hardly be able to benefit from them. Do you have any clue about those roles? I am fairly sure that Yayap, spy, Illidan, Ozymandias and Rumpel are citizens. Not as certain, but still positive about monster and ganondorf being cits as well. MileS is most likely the other investigator. I also believe narks to be a town role, definitely not a sheriff - could be a citizen. I agree on Auckmid being a town power role, possibly a sheriff since he avoided voting on the target accused by the two currently claimed ones. I also realized you are probably correct on AscendedOne and Severn, i wasn't paying enough attention to them.

oops, northstar and SAS are almost certainly bad guys, i wouldn't hit them this night. Why would you say that FalseTruth is a Romano? Anyway i wouldn't hit him either.

What about goonswarm and crimson? They definitely aren't two sheriffs, if even one of them is. We will know if one of them was executioner, otherwise i think it is the jester. Also, that means at least 1 sheriff is still unclaimed. We shouldn't hit him, he is no harm to us.

I am not sure on people like McPwnage, Procyon and divemaster. Any intel to share?

[Raiden]

Also, my suggested roles list:

Godfather[De Luca] = TheJackofSpades
Consigliere[De Luca] = Raiden
Mafioso[Romano] = FalseTruth?
Framer[Romano] = SAS
Hooker[Romano] = Clawtrocity
Serial Killer = vornksr? Oops?
Cult Leader = vornksr ? Oops?
Jester = Goonswarm?
Executioner = Goonswarm?
Mason = AscendedOne
Sheriff = Crimson?
Sheriff = Auckmid?
Investigator = MileS
Doctor = ???
Gunsmith = ???
Armorsmith = ???
Citizen/Mason = Severn
Citizen = Narks?
Citizen = Ganondorf?
Citizen = monster?
Citizen = Ozymandias
Citizen = Yayap
Citizen = Spy
Citizen = Rumpel
Citizen = Illidan

Unfortunately, the 3 unknown targets are also the one i would like to hit. Can you find any discrepancy, or do you have better clues on who could the town roles be?

[TheJackofSpades]

Hmm... I think it very likely that Goon is executioner, and i can only hope that Claw didn't find the SK night one.
I wasn't attacked last night so I don't think SK attacked me.

The reason I think False is an evil role because he said he wanted to avoid a Claw situation by everyone role claiming but by doing so created a very similiar clusterfuck.

Your theory on Auckmid seems fairly viable, I'll need to re-read through his posts and I'll get back to you on that one.

I think we should probably kill one of the three people we don't have a very good read on, as if analysis pays off we have a rather high chance of success of hitting one of those three money roles.

I'll go read through Divemaster, McPwnage, Procyon, and Auckmid's posts again.

[TheJackofSpades]

My top suspect is still Oops. Unfortunately, not many of you are going to see my logic, but I must ask for the investigators to please investigate Oops.

Could use some theorycrafting to guess at what kind of knowledge Auckmid could have due to his role that would leave him to believe that Oops is crooked. Also just possible that he said this because he isn't up to trying to defend his arguments.

I believe it is likely that Procyon is one of the three roles we're looking for assuming Narks is throwing him on the chopping block for personal reasons. I think it's a good idea that you investigate him next perhaps. I'm not 100% confident in killing him tonight due to the complex circle of lies going on during this game, I won't know for sure until I find out which of them is the executioner.

I also think Divemaster is town because pretty much everything he's said has been said in the tone that people who are 100% confident in being able to act in the open as a town and just outplay the mafia uses. He's probably our best bet on a kill tonight.

McPwnage is likely town simply because he wants investigator to 100% detect which only a town would say. Beyond that, I've got no idea.

Imho, the most cut and dry kills are Divemaster and McPwnage, Procyon and Auckmid's possible roles are very conditional on information that will only be likely known tomorrow.

Also, another reason I think vornskr is cult leader because he was really big on using as much time as possible and not rushing through things. Mafia just want the kill, cult wants as much information as humanly possible to help with recruiting purposes.

[Raiden]

I did some reading as well. Divemaster and McPwage accepted all the power roles claims, so i don't think they could possibly be sheriffs. They are hardly masons, and definitely not invests. My citizen list is almost full, so i guess they are are very good targets for us.

Since divemaster looks quite more active than mcpwnage, until further insight i suggest we go for him.

Investigating Procyon is ok too, i don't think he's a citizen.

I will be posting about my defense and last will in the other thread.

[Raiden]

(also going to bed now, brb in 8-10 hours).

[Raiden]

I was thinking that the only roles that could really impair our plans by finding you are the hooker, the sk, the masons and the gunsmith.

We already have the hooker, so that's one less threat. We won't be so lucky to have the gunsmith dead by tomorrow, will we? By the way, i think someone will attack procyon or narks if they aren't mafia. Just to see how much narks was trolling about it.

I also read more about oops, he doesn't seem to be the sk. He might be Romano mafia. I don't think FalseTruth is in the same league as claw, although he may be another kind of bad guy. Will it be a bad idea to investigate him?

[TheJackofSpades]

No it wouldn't. It's really up to you when it comes down to it. Check anyone who you might think might be one of those three roles and I'll be happy.

If you do survive the night, be sure to leave it in your last will or something along those lines. Don't have to say who, just have to say the role.

Hopefully we'll hit another lucky break and get another non-citizen read.

As it stands, I still plan on killing Divemaster.

[Raiden]

Ok, i will send the command later today.

Of course if i find a relevant target i'll make sure to write it in my last will. If i don't, you'll know that i have found a citizen.

[Raiden]

check FalseTruth

I thought of a code we might set up should i get lynched tomorrow. I will keep my last will from the other thread, and add a meta line at the end of it which will include a keyword related to what i have found. Some examples:

"Town is being noob, they can't think to win with citizens only." = I got a Citizen result.

"The death of our mafioso has crippled us since the beginning." = I actually found the Romano mafioso.

"This game is fairly balanced, I don't believe the Cult will win this time" = i found the cult leader. I will also add this sentence AFTER the one which states the role of my target if i find out that he is also culted.

"The lack of a SK kill also favored town greatly." = i found the SK

and so on. Do you agree? It will be very clear for you, but not really to the other people. They may think i found a citizen or that i just forgot to let you know because i'm a noob.

[Raiden]

Or... actually, i could mess things up even more. Like "btw i found the SK in my latest investigation. You know what to do."

You just disregard that and proceed to read the meta line. If FalseTruth dies this night, my lw will end with this random lie.

[TheJackofSpades]

This is brilliant Raiden. Really, awesome idea.

[Raiden]

Thank you, i hope it will be useful. Or... well, not really, because it would mean i was lynched, but if that is case this is the best i could do to help our team :)

Since i am going to bed now and won't be back before 8-10 hours, i will leave my vote for the kill, just in case you aren't able to come here again and notify elixir.

kill divemaster127, send TheJackofSpades.

Of course you can override it any time and for any valid reason you might think of later on.

[Raiden]

If FalseTruth dies this night, my lw will end with this random lie.


Oh and this will happen also if i get roleblocked. The romano will know that it is a false claim, but everyone else won't.

[TheJackofSpades]

kill divemaster127, send TheJackofSpades