S-FM 234: Lottery

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Explain.

You just say that my posting is ridiculous. First, it is not (out of the few shitpost pages ), and second, if I was scum, I wouldn't be "desperate"...

[Marshmallow Marshall]

him being town is the point. Nawa being scum knew he was town and made a token last minute defense of him to prove he not scum.

Oh btw, this remembers me something...

The earth is round, Nawa is guilty
The earth is flat, Nawa is guilty.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Myself
Dr Unknown

Nawa
PIayer



Exeter350
Gyrlander



mrtrophywife
Scvmurderer

I'll quote it myself, since you all ignored my posts about READING THIS SHIT. Read. Comment. Stop ignoring.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

10 guests? Who is lurking?

[Marshmallow Marshall]

@Gyrlander , we need you!!!

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Scvmurderer the Lurker. He's burrowed, waiting for a group of marines to pass near him...

[Marshmallow Marshall]

HYBRID MODE ACTIVATED

[Scvmurderer]

Scvmurderer the Lurker. He's burrowed, waiting for a group of marines to pass near him...

hm, sometimes a lynch train needs a leading in the sc2 mod

[Scvmurderer]

And did not vote him, obviously scum. I am not saying Nawa is confirmed. Just saying his lynch is far from confirmed.

You've made it pretty clear you think of him as town confirmed this last while

[Marshmallow Marshall]

You've made it pretty clear you think of him as town confirmed this last while

I feel like I'm playing Twister. Twist, twist, twist... KEEP TWISTING MY WORDS AND YOULL BE A TWISTER. Quote that "pretty clear" posts.

[Scvmurderer]

I feel like I'm playing Twister. Twist, twist, twist... KEEP TWISTING MY WORDS AND YOULL BE A TWISTER. Quote that "pretty clear" posts.

All you can say is STop twisting my words!!! Want to counter stuff?!

[Marshmallow Marshall]

All you can say is STop twisting my words!!! Want to counter stuff?!

Quote.

[Scvmurderer]

Quote.

Quote.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Only thing I say is stop twisting my words because I can't "defend" twisted words. .

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Quote.

Pffs...

[Scvmurderer]

Pffs...

PFFS...

[Marshmallow Marshall]

PFFS...

Lol, this is becoming weird... AGAIN...

[Scvmurderer]

Lol, this is becoming weird... AGAIN...

Its only weird if you make it weird.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

BTW, remember that EoD is tomorrow, IRL time. Please post things, else we'll be fucked because of no lynch.

[Scvmurderer]

BTW, remember that EoD is tomorrow, IRL time. Please post things, else we'll be fucked because of no lynch.

Oh there will be a lynch. Nawas specifically. But until then we can talk

[Scvmurderer]

Oh, exeter is lurking.

[Exeter350]

Holy shit. I didn't read this. This Is ridiculous, I'm not going to side with a gamble, not again. Sorry for being hostile towards you nawa.

It's just a joke. There were substantial arguments presented by SCV, Piayer and I on a Nawa lynch on pages 47 and 48. Also, inputs from trophy and yourself supporting the lynch.

Don't get steered astray by a little joke.

The mayor shit is making you suspicious exter, drop it please

Just a little joke. Certainly I'll stop LOL.

YOU HAVNT GIVEN EXPLANATUONS TO ANYTHING. IT'S ALL GARBLED WORDS

There's this nonsense to start. In fact u think your deliberate with this nonsense

Not to mention EoD yesterday where you started spouting nonsense when accusations came your way. Is this your new defense? Illiterate speech so ppl don't know if you defend yourself?

Wowowo. So deliberate non words to deflect accusations is okay now?

^ This shit made me LOL so hard when I read it last night. Also, it was one of my first thoughts. "Is this deliberate?!"

him being town is the point. Nawa being scum knew he was town and made a token last minute defense of him to prove he not scum.

^ This.

If I recall correctly, the only other person to defend Hybrid was myself. The difference between Nawa and I is the rationale behind our decision. I had numerous posts substantiating my arguments, but Nawa presented little reason to refuse a lynch on Hybrid, apart from "gut feeling".

It just feels as though Nawa's Mafia and already knew Hybrid is Town, so he refused to lynch him to buy credibility later.

[Exeter350]

XDDDD Everything Exeter said is ridiculous... It's all shitpost and random votes, he admits it (THIS IS MY GAMBLE!!!!!!!)

Also this smells funny. Like a Mafia member's unwashed asshole.

I'm fine with Trophy being cautious because of what I said, but you fanning the flames is SMELLY.

[Scvmurderer]

Hm, Im off to the land of dreams. Ill check in later. Also good points Exeter.

[Exeter350]

From what I've seen on pages 50-54, Nawa and MM sound desperate but do one of the following:
(1) Present weak defense.
(2) Say "This is bullshit" without explaining why.
(3) Deflect to other things.
(4) Completely ignore existing cases made against them and demand explanations that are already there.

All of which just makes them smell smellier and smellier.

Nawa and MM. Let's go.

[PIayer]

I'm back guys, thanks for not ending day early ^^

Guess my project of erasing all memory and rebuild from scratch was a bit ambitious for the time I have before falling asleep on my keyboard.
I'll start by an iso of Trophy and MM looking for interesting bits I could have missed.

I don't feel the strength to also iso SCV at this point, I may do after all else but don't think it will bring much fresh insight =/

Also gyr/Unknown didn't see you use daytime much so far, we NEED more input from you both to clarify shit

Nawa, still not buying your defense, but still I'll look for your past contributions to see if I missed something (atm you're so obviously scum it's disturbing, really don't get what would make MM think otherwise so maybe I missed smth, maybe you're just both scum but this thought is too tempting to be automatic, tbh I'm still traumatized by my last game where it was the towniest of us all who flipped scum in the end, don't want to be played again so need to put serious thoughts into this)

[Marshmallow Marshall]

From what I've seen on pages 50-54, Nawa and MM sound desperate but do one of the following:
(1) Present weak defense.
(2) Say "This is bullshit" without explaining why.
(3) Deflect to other things.
(4) Completely ignore existing cases made against them and demand explanations that are already there.

All of which just makes them smell smellier and smellier.

Nawa and MM. Let's go.

Make a wall post with your cases. I will be glad to answer, and I think Nawa will be too. For now, THERE IS NOTHING TO DEFEND AGAINST. Make a case with quotes and explain your points.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I'm back guys, thanks for not ending day early ^^

Guess my project of erasing all memory and rebuild from scratch was a bit ambitious for the time I have before falling asleep on my keyboard.
I'll start by an iso of Trophy and MM looking for interesting bits I could have missed.

I don't feel the strength to also iso SCV at this point, I may do after all else but don't think it will bring much fresh insight =/

Also gyr/Unknown didn't see you use daytime much so far, we NEED more input from you both to clarify shit

Nawa, still not buying your defense, but still I'll look for your past contributions to see if I missed something (atm you're so obviously scum it's disturbing, really don't get what would make MM think otherwise so maybe I missed smth, maybe you're just both scum but this thought is too tempting to be automatic, tbh I'm still traumatized by my last game where it was the towniest of us all who flipped scum in the end, don't want to be played again so need to put serious thoughts into this)

Apparently, I'm the only one to think Nawa is not scum... Maybe I missed something. I trust you, PIayer. Could you, please, as a RATIONAL player, make up the case against Nawa? I want to see the accusations against him. I'm a bit lost

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Now I'm gonna go off, because I'll fall asleep on my keyboard too :P see you later guys.

[Nawa]

It's just a joke. There were substantial arguments presented by SCV, Piayer and I on a Nawa lynch on pages 47 and 48. Also, inputs from trophy and yourself supporting the lynch.

Don't get steered astray by a little joke.



Just a little joke. Certainly I'll stop LOL.









^ This shit made me LOL so hard when I read it last night. Also, it was one of my first thoughts. "Is this deliberate?!"



^ This.

If I recall correctly, the only other person to defend Hybrid was myself. The difference between Nawa and I is the rationale behind our decision. I had numerous posts substantiating my arguments, but Nawa presented little reason to refuse a lynch on Hybrid, apart from "gut feeling".

It just feels as though Nawa's Mafia and already knew Hybrid is Town, so he refused to lynch him to buy credibility later.

Can you quote your argumebts on refusing to lynch last da?

[Nawa]

Make a wall post with your cases. I will be glad to answer, and I think Nawa will be too. For now, THERE IS NOTHING TO DEFEND AGAINST. Make a case with quotes and explain your points.

^^

[PIayer]

rereading #953, it was a fair post from trophy imo

Being on Hybrid train isn't a problem for me, only thing we know about Hybrid train is there was probably maf & cit mixed in it: not helpful at all.

You forgot Gyr in your list btw.

I still think you're not doing enough scumhunt, Nawa being your only scum read is lazy esp how you nuance it. Afawk there is 3 mafia in the wild, we could have lynched Nawa already but town need to do more than that at this point, we lost 3 town already and got zero sheriff claim so far. Dig deeper! Maf won't be obvious.

However I agree on the fact postcount is a BS tool in itself, content > quantity indeed. SCV implying otherwise is full of BS and self-interested. As it's easy to farm postcount, less easy to word actual reflection. Also it's okay to not have tons of time to put into the game. Still waiting for you to take more risks with your reads, but still, this post looked like a genuine attempt to help, so it's enough to unvote you atm. It's actually better than what you did last game where we lynched you as Marshall

Also appreciated your insight on sheriff tickets, idk how many of us have wasted tickets on those sheriffs but damn, if you didn't had it, and I didn't, someone MUST have had it at some point. If that someone is still alive, please speak up, even to NS someone: any fresh insight would be welcome at this point.

-vote Dr Unknown

Man we need you to contribute the same way trophy did, and it seems he needed to be voted before doing so. Note it's also true about Gyr, ok Hybrid LW him his points but afaik Hybrid had no way to know his alignment. Doc, I know you have heavy IRL with your studies and few time to allocate to this, but considering how critical today is, you're still TOO quiet atm. Help us fight the paranoia, scum may be everywhere and today town just can't afford to just lurk & sheep with their town reads. Need CONTENT, even taking 30mn to smartphone-type a top 3 would be of big help to us

[PIayer]

MM I have no way to 100% guarantee/demonstrate Nawa is scum. But Exec and I gave leads on why it is most likely.

Also, catched somewhere you were susp of Exe saying "THIS IS MY GAMBLE", but in the context it actually made sense, obv it works both ways (what a town would say/what a maf would say to appear to not have perfect information) but it connected with how I felt about this game, it is indeed a "lottery" because noone will ever be confirmed, everyone can claim mayor, maf can be sheriff for a night, etc. Apart setup/flips/our own alignments we got no true info, only our own interpretations, hence why "gambling" is not only fair but a necessity.

Nawa, the only thing in your favor atm is you're actually participating today. But still see you on the defensive, please work on refutation of my D1 wall about SCV if you really are town and want me to believe you are, also share other leads and the whys. Your explanation of why you defended Hybrid felt a bit wonky, but I don't get the way you play tbh, in 8-2-2 game you lost me.

[Exeter350]

MM I have no way to 100% guarantee/demonstrate Nawa is scum. But Exec and I gave leads on why it is most likely.

Also, catched somewhere you were susp of Exe saying "THIS IS MY GAMBLE", but in the context it actually made sense, obv it works both ways (what a town would say/what a maf would say to appear to not have perfect information) but it connected with how I felt about this game, it is indeed a "lottery" because noone will ever be confirmed, everyone can claim mayor, maf can be sheriff for a night, etc. Apart setup/flips/our own alignments we got no true info, only our own interpretations, hence why "gambling" is not only fair but a necessity.

Thanks for explaining what I was too lazy to find the words for to explain.

In a game where Mafia will try their best to imitate Town, and Town may inadvertently pass off as Mafia, it really is all a gamble. An informed gamble, based on reads and probabilities, but ultimately still a gamble.

It may be that, for all our substantial reasoning and shit, Nawa may still flip Town.

But it doesn't matter, we're just doing the best we can with the limited information we got. No matter how hard you rack your brains and second-guess yourself, it's not going to make new information pop out. And unlike Nawa and MM, SCV, Piayer and I have been substantiating our arguments damn well.

And yeah, the Mafia could do that too, WOULD do that too to pass off as Town, but it's not like Nawa and MM are putting up a good fight to make me doubt myself.

It really is a circular argument. At the end of the day, just trust yourself and your judgement. As long as you actually put thought behind your decisions, it's all good.

SCV, Piayer and I have presented our arguments, Nawa and MM have presented their defense, trophy and Dr Unknown have given their inputs, make your decision.

P.S. Don't worry, this doesn't automatically absolve SCV and Piayer (or myself) from all suspicion. Assuming Nawa and MM really are Mafia, there's still one rat hiding somewhere. But we can flush that rat out later.

[Exeter350]

TL;DR

Using the existing information that I have, I have decided that Nawa and MM are Mafia.

Unless new information pops out (and this does not include shitposts designed to sway my emotions or make me doubt myself), my decision isn't going to change.

[Exeter350]

Now, let's talk about points, tickets and night actions.

@SuperJack If I win the Gold ticket again, does my 2 votes get doubled to 4 votes?

I spent 0 points on Day 1, reasoning that everyone would rush to blow their points and run out later. Instead of spending all 5 points on a higher chance to win a ticket which wouldn't even be that useful that early in the game, I decided to save up for later, when other players can't compete.

I spent 1 point on D2 on the Gold ticket, which I somehow won. Lol @ Hybrid.

I now have 9 points, which at this crucial point in this game, I will invest into ONE ticket colour to guarantee I get it. The question is which one?

If the Gold ticket doubles my 2 votes to 4 votes, I will definitely pump all 9 points into that one and count on a previous BG/Doc winner to guard me tonight.

Otherwise, I'll pump all 9 points into Purple tix and shoot either MM or my next suspect dead tonight. Not specifying who it is so I don't give the Mafia a target to defend, assuming they won the Blue tickets in the previous nights.

[Exeter350]

Also I will all my points to Piayer if I die tonight.

[PIayer]

I'm lost lurking in the past

Back in the day (1) Unknow sounded fair..
So far dunno what to keep of D1, SCV wagon was all the rage back then.

[PIayer]

@Exeter350 Aw thank you =D even if that's more wifom for Blue Ticket Doctor.

On that note we shouldn't give up on him, imo if town got NK & Doc the comebacks may become real. Maf will probably want the extra NK, but as we're majority "secret ballot" means we can contest those and hope for the best.

[PIayer]

Still no certitude about @MM, man you're so cryptic lol. Your blue text, your shitpost, several logic-flawed things said but I also saw some objective contribution. So really idk, still lurking past, null read atm

[Exeter350]

I'll drop my vote on Nawa in 6 hours time, with or without input from the quiet ones.

[Scvmurderer]

I see unknown lurking and not posting again.

[Scvmurderer]

Also where is gyrlander? Lol

[Scvmurderer]

I'm lost lurking in the past

Back in the day (1) Unknow sounded fair..
So far dunno what to keep of D1, SCV wagon was all the rage back then.

Every1 loves the scv wagon. At this point we are waiting to get posts from unknown who was just lurking again, gyrlander and trophy. Nawa's sudden shit posting isn't doing much for xonversation

[PIayer]

Past messed with my mind

Spoiler : #1086 @Exeter :

Tbh there's still this slight possibility you're scum aiming for 4-vote tyranny, now that would be epic lol. Also me, afterall if you weren't sheriff afaik you got no "true" info on me.

But whatever our alignment, town shall hear that all-in is the safest option here, I believe maf want to get double vote/NK to setup their win. Lookout meh at this point, maybe someone put a ticket or two on it but don't think maf will want this. Medic town will definitely want this, but no need to waste too much on it imo, assuming mafia is smart only value in betting medic is deny when they can deny + positive value with NK/dual vote. Also Medic need another random check facing wifom.


About raffle: 4 is a bit tyrannic for real, from your pov that's fair considering you know you're town, but if you actually are it would be a lot of eggs in same basket, no true info available besides you town & makes you easy target for mafia. BG was most likely wasted or maybe denied by mafia. But we're not sure it works and if it does I believe it will be 3 votes and not 4-one-man-hammer.

.. I started to do a possibility tree about what could happen but realized it was a work for a computer, not me oO.
Only thing being sure about it: assuming lynch and two kills tonight, tomorrow we'll be 5. At this point Double Vote will be more OP than ever. For Maf even more because they know who to lynch. NK this also applies, but "death is so final while life, ah, life is full of possibilities". Vig can be wrong, Medic can be wrong, Vig/2vote can be maf, that would change a LOT of things.


As nobody even faked Sheriff once (ok maybe SCV in his shitposting about hybrid) all we can do while crossing fingers for raffle & night outcome is basically talk. Idk if we should all announce where our tickets will be: who will ever claim betting on the medic one? Or even lookout? Easy deception, everyone will either stay silent about it or claim Dual Vote/NK, wifoms will ensue (inb4 SCV "I ALLIN DOC") and daychat quality will drop. So I prefer saying nothing more on this matter.

/upd SCV yup, going to sleep soon.
You didn't reminded me what do you think about MM and why.

[Scvmurderer]

Past messed with my mind

Spoiler : #1086 @Exeter :

Tbh there's still this slight possibility you're scum aiming for 4-vote tyranny, now that would be epic lol. Also me, afterall if you weren't sheriff afaik you got no "true" info on me.

But whatever our alignment, town shall hear that all-in is the safest option here, I believe maf want to get double vote/NK to setup their win. Lookout meh at this point, maybe someone put a ticket or two on it but don't think maf will want this. Medic town will definitely want this, but no need to waste too much on it imo, assuming mafia is smart only value in betting medic is deny when they can deny + positive value with NK/dual vote. Also Medic need another random check facing wifom.


About raffle: 4 is a bit tyrannic for real, from your pov that's fair considering you know you're town, but if you actually are it would be a lot of eggs in same basket, no true info available besides you town & makes you easy target for mafia. BG was most likely wasted or maybe denied by mafia. But we're not sure it works and if it does I believe it will be 3 votes and not 4-one-man-hammer.

.. I started to do a possibility tree about what could happen but realized it was a work for a computer, not me oO.
Only thing being sure about it: assuming lynch and two kills tonight, tomorrow we'll be 5. At this point Double Vote will be more OP than ever. For Maf even more because they know who to lynch. NK this also applies, but "death is so final while life, ah, life is full of possibilities". Vig can be wrong, Medic can be wrong, Vig/2vote can be maf, that would change a LOT of things.


As nobody even faked Sheriff once (ok maybe SCV in his shitposting about hybrid) all we can do while crossing fingers for raffle & night outcome is basically talk. Idk if we should all announce where our tickets will be: who will ever claim betting on the medic one? Or even lookout? Easy deception, everyone will either stay silent about it or claim Dual Vote/NK, wifoms will ensue (inb4 SCV "I ALLIN DOC") and daychat quality will drop. So I prefer saying nothing more on this matter.

/upd SCV yup, going to sleep soon.
You didn't reminded me what do you think about MM and why.

Didn't know you wanted my opinion on it. If your asking me MM was eager to hop on hybrid train. He flipped town and in like 30 minutes of day starting was trying to start a train on me. Has consistently shitposted all game with few exceptions. Deflects from answering actual pointed posts of evidence and just spams where's the evidence. He's scum in my books.

[Exeter350]

@Marshmallow Marshall 's arguments are in pages 42-44 if anyone's wondering.

And for SB16's death, I think you told yourself that you would be "too scummy to be scum", since it is so obvious.

I have spoken my piece on the "SCV is too scummy to be scum" thing before, and I don't think there's anything left to say.

And I'm not "disappointed", I'm simply thinking he is scum. Another thing to note: he said "so you're ok with lynching either Hybrid or Exeter today" somewhere, you can find it if you search for it. He never pushed Exeter. I think he did that just to get my vote because I was pushing Exeter. If he had voted Exeter, it would've been pure sheep. He should just have said "No, I don't want to lynch Exeter yet." since he gave nothing against Exeter in the past.

This is an okay point.

But taking into consideration the rest of your arguments:
(1) SCV is evil for lynching Hybrid.
(2) SB16 was SCV's most vocal accuser so SCV killed him.
(3) Post counts.

Still smells smelly to me.

Actually, now I'm more inclined to lynch MM now. Not so sure about Nawa or Trophy anymore.

I think I'm gonna pump 5-6 points into Gold tix just to deny other people double votes, regardless of Mafia or Town, then 3-4 points into Purple tix to make sure Mafia doesn't get another NK.

[Exeter350]

But taking into consideration the rest of your arguments:
(1) SCV is evil for lynching Hybrid.
(2) SB16 was SCV's most vocal accuser so SCV killed him.
(3) Post counts.

Still smells smelly to me.

And mind you, this is YOUR arguments alone suggesting you're Mafia. There are still the arguments from SCV, Piayer and myself to drive the nail in the coffin.

[Exeter350]

The possibility that SCV and Piayer are both Mafia has occurred to me.

One could argue that they're both really outspoken because they are the ones with the most interest in the game as Mafia. In contrast, players like Gyrlander and Dr Unknown are quiet because they have little interest in the game as Town.

But then you could also argue that SCV and Piayer are really outspoken because they really care about deducing the evils as Town, while Gyrlander and Dr Unknown are quiet because they're Mafia trying to avoid drawing attention.

It's neither here nor there.

I'll just gamble on MM and Nawa being Mafia instead of SCV and Piayer, and hope for the best.

[Exeter350]

Tbh there's still this slight possibility you're scum aiming for 4-vote tyranny, now that would be epic lol. Also me, afterall if you weren't sheriff afaik you got no "true" info on me.

But whatever our alignment, town shall hear that all-in is the safest option here, I believe maf want to get double vote/NK to setup their win. Lookout meh at this point, maybe someone put a ticket or two on it but don't think maf will want this. Medic town will definitely want this, but no need to waste too much on it imo, assuming mafia is smart only value in betting medic is deny when they can deny + positive value with NK/dual vote. Also Medic need another random check facing wifom.


About raffle: 4 is a bit tyrannic for real, from your pov that's fair considering you know you're town, but if you actually are it would be a lot of eggs in same basket, no true info available besides you town & makes you easy target for mafia. BG was most likely wasted or maybe denied by mafia. But we're not sure it works and if it does I believe it will be 3 votes and not 4-one-man-hammer.

.. I started to do a possibility tree about what could happen but realized it was a work for a computer, not me oO.
Only thing being sure about it: assuming lynch and two kills tonight, tomorrow we'll be 5. At this point Double Vote will be more OP than ever. For Maf even more because they know who to lynch. NK this also applies, but "death is so final while life, ah, life is full of possibilities". Vig can be wrong, Medic can be wrong, Vig/2vote can be maf, that would change a LOT of things.

Yep, it's time to all in and pray for the best. We have already analysed the situation as best as we can.

Red tickets are worthless now. I sure as hell won't believe any leads that come out tomorrow, what with half the population being Mafia.