Simple Forum Mafia

[Auckmid]

lol, hold your horses.
@Damus_Graves I'm 99% sure I know the answer to this, but it's correct to assume that the werewolf didn't know the exact RP name of any single player at the start of the game seeing how they don't even know which player was their minion, right?

[Damus_Graves]

lol, hold your horses.
@Damus_Graves I'm 99% sure I know the answer to this, but it's correct to assume that the werewolf didn't know the exact RP name of any single player at the start of the game seeing how they don't even know which player was their minion, right?

They knew their minion was named Kalem.

[Auckmid]

They knew their minion was named Kalem.

Thanks, just confirming.

[AIVION]

Dude do you even read people's posts?

I've given Auckmid's name, I've given MY name.

Also your vote on me for you not knowing what RP even means is a bit, as you would actually put it, *Sudden* and I'd like it explained.

@Light_Yagami

[AIVION]

People need to claim their RP names please...

[Auckmid]

Btw, I'm just waiting right now to make sure that Blink is indeed claiming that the werewolf tried to cult him last night. This is the post he made heavily implying it.

I believe i successfully lured the werewolf into trying to convert me due to my wifom, i believe yagami's claim because he pretty much hardclaimed lookout with his first post. Yagamis a straight up kind of guy and i don't see him pulling this as a scum. Therefore this schulyer character is likley the werewolf.

We can make a few deductions if he does confirm this, especially if he did successfully manage to prevent the werewolf from culting which seems plausible right now.

[AIVION]

Btw, I'm just waiting right now to make sure that Blink is indeed claiming that the werewolf tried to cult him last night. This is the post he made heavily implying it.



We can make a few deductions if he does confirm this, especially if he did successfully manage to prevent the werewolf from culting which seems plausible right now.

Agreed, and my hope that if he confirms this and when people give their names that means that when everyone claims their roles there will be 1 liar. And it should be simple to deduce who that liar is and get the win.

[blinkskater]

I am Garvey.

[blinkskater]

Btw, I'm just waiting right now to make sure that Blink is indeed claiming that the werewolf tried to cult him last night. This is the post he made heavily implying it.



We can make a few deductions if he does confirm this, especially if he did successfully manage to prevent the werewolf from culting which seems plausible right now.

I conform.

[Auckmid]

I conform.

Thank god, I was just about to post a massive post which I was worried could unravel due to the possible ambiguity of your claim.

Btw, I will mention this more post game, but I do apologize if it looked like I was tunneling you day 1 for poor reasoning since it does look like you are indeed not the werewolf. I wasn't as convinced by my own logic that you were scum day 1 as I may have seemed and I was mostly just trying to find a way to kick out of the sticky situation I had found myself in since I don't often find myself as a lynch target as town.

[Auckmid]

Now that there is confirmation from Blink that he is indeed claiming to be the werewolf target from night 1, I can proceed...

Please read this post CAREFULLY everyone. It might be a bit long, but it's going to be significant to the outcome of the game and it will take less time to fully read then it did to write.

I'll start by stating that I am the hunter and one of the up to 3 TPRs. As I will go into detail on below, due to AIVION's claim and Blink's werewolf target claim, we are both confirmed town (again, full explanation in the "battle plan" section).

While we have enough information at this point to make all of the correct moves, there is an incredibly fringe scenario which we can't deal with very effectively. This scenario is exactly this: The werewolf is actually Light_Yagami, he successfully culted Blinkskater last night and there are only 2 PRs (myself and AIVION), disallowing for the possibility of a CC from naz, MM and Arsonist who would all be citizens. After he culted Blinkskater, he started pulling out the 9000 IQ plays by first doing his homework on how the lookout functioned, then claimed that his recently culted minion, Blinkskater, was visited by exactly one person last night, then came up with a completely fake RP name for the person who visited Blinkskater, completely throwing Blinkskater under the bus just for those town points. If this is the case where Light gambled on there only being 2 TPRs and then did a play this ballsy with this level of foresight, he honestly deserves the victory. We are not going to live in this world. If Blinkskater is a minion I think we have to assume that Light is NOT the werewolf.

The other fringe scenario is that Blink is lying about being the werewolf target despite still being town. While Blink might like his big plays, I don't think that he would ever lack the game sense to do something this stupid when it could backfire so easily and so catostrophically.

Now that is out of the way, we can begin the end game battle plan.

Spoiler : Town Victory Battle Plan :

What we know: Blinkskater was the cult target last night from the werewolf or he at least claims to be (chances are extremely high that he was indeed the target). Light, who was watching Blink, says that he was visited by exactly one person who has the RP name of Schuyler. AIVION claims to be sheriff/lunatic and learned that my RP name is Aletha. I am confirming that my RP name is indeed Aletha. Since AIVION and I both vouch that my RP name isn't Schuyler, the only way that my RP name is not Aletha is if we are both scum. If we were both scum, the werewolf could not have visited Blinkskater, meaning that Blink would have to be lying as town, and Light, who must also be telling the truth as town, did indeed see a TPR named Schuyler visit Blink last night, which no one is claiming. Since this would be ridiculously unlikely even if we were to humor the possibility that Blink is yanking us around as a town player, AIVION and myself are confirmed to not be a scum team. Since we aren't both scum and AIVION knows my RP name, he is confirmed town. Since my RP name is confirmed to not be Schuyler, I cannot have targeted Blinkskater so cannot be the werewolf if either Blink or Light are telling the truth and it isn't possible for all 3 of us to be scum. Since Blink is claiming to be the target from the werewolf, I cannot be the minion. As such, AIVION and myself are both confirmed town and taking up 2 of the hidden slots.

We can deduce 3 possible scenarios from all of this.

1 (By far the most likely): Blinkskater was a citizen who got culted last night. Seeing how Light being the werewolf in this scenario is ridiculously unlikely, we can then narrow down the possible werewolfs to MM, naz and Arsonist. From there, I'll kill one of them during the night and AIVION can check a different one of them, thereby forcing the werewolf to not be able to cult since doing so would cause a guaranteed lost. As such, a successful kill on the werewolf would cause us to win the game. If the werewolf isn't killed during the night the town still gets the opportunity to lynch one of the remaining 2 players from this group and still wins from a successful lynch.

Btw, this is all assuming that MM, naz and Arsonist aren't going to claim anything besides citizen. If one of them claims TPR then they are most likely the werewolf, but it allows for the possibility that Light is the werewolf to be dealt with, effectively guaranteeing a town victory since the identity of the werewolf would be narrowed to just 2.

2 (Fringe): Blinkskater is TPR and successfully managed to prevent the cult last night. If this is the scenario, since myself and AIVION are confirmed town and are both claiming the remaining PRs, Light would have to be the werewolf due to being the 4th PR claim and not being confirmed town. It would be a 5v1 with a revealed werewolf and the ability to kill him on that night. The math should be easy enough for everyone to do, but the long story short is that scum always loses from this position. As an additional note, since town guaranteed wins from that position, even Blinkskater should support his own lynch if this is the scenario.

3 (Next to no chance): Blinkskater is the werewolf. If this is the case, since Schuyler would have to be a TPR and AIVION and myself are already covering two of the TPR slots, once again Light would have to be the werewolf due to Schuyler not being the werewolf and there being no possibility of Light being TPR in addition to there being a TPR called Schuyler (aka, Light would have to be lying in this scenario as well). As such, it plays out identically to scenario 2 where Blinkskater is TPR.

As a side note, Light being scum is something that is mentioned in quite a few of these scenarios. To be clear, I think it is very unlikely that Light is actually scum, but it does need to be brought up if something very unexpected happens (Blinkskater flips something very unexpected or MM/naz/Arsonist claim TPR).

TLDR: We lynch Blink. He is overwhelmingly likely to flip minion, narrowing down the possible werewolves to MM, naz and Arsonist. We then get 2 opportunities to take out the werewolf and win as long as we don't guess wrong twice. In the fringe cases that he flips TPR or werewolf, we get a lock at the last remaining scum and will ultimately win as a result even though that is unlikely seeing how I would be incredibly surprised if Light ends up being scum.

-vote blinkskater

[naz]

My name is Pace the Pacifist uwu

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Blinkskater: Pretty town to me. I felt like his gambit did better than even he thought it would of done as it got Banshis lynched. Feels pretty town to me.
Marshmallow Marshall: To be honest... I'm conflicted here. I want to say town.. but I feel like he was trying to do some shifty things Day 1 like discrediting Auckmid (a bit), discrediting Blink (a lot) and overall just felt a tad bit scummy. So I'm on the fence with Mr. Squishy, I'm always terrible at reading him anyway
Naz: I'm feeling town here, also liking what I see so far from her and she has the same feelings as I do about Arsonist.
Arsonist: Feels null. His whole "GET ON AND SPICE THE GAME UP" Motif could of came from a scum mindset to make people think he wants the game to proceed but offer very little himself (as he just sheeped on Banshis and said very little in terms of... well.. anything). I have a null read but also slightly leaning scum here as well. And it's not much different so far with Day 2 so I'm feeling like Arsonist is the lynch.
Auckmid: I'm also on the fritz with this player. Auckmid was appearing towny with his questionnaire to get the ball rolling and his probing/scum hunting... but to me it didn't feel genuine. Especially when he was backing up Banshis's obviously scummy play against Blinkskater. Honestly that whole ordeal is sort of muddying my read on Auckmid. As of Day 2 and with my feedback I will trust this player for now.
Light_Yagami: Feels like town Yagami, also like his Lookout claim as the way he explained his feedback correlates with my feedback I received.

This is the edited Last will reads list I made. Still formulating my reads as of day 2 but added a bit to it.

Care with reads on blink... he might decieve you.

I did discredit Auckmid, and I'd say more than a bit, because agreeing with a scum on a scummy point which is literally the reason for which we found a scum is... scummy, as you can guess by the "scum" "scummy" "scum" everywhere.
However, I did not discredit Blink; I in fact gave him a lot of credit, although I do not really trust him because of the meta everyone knows lol. I'd say I'm 65/35 on him being town.

Could you elaborate on Naz, please? I mean, you put Arson as null slightly leaning scum, so saying that you get the same vibes with Naz and townreading Naz is ???

I agree that Arsonist is null-scummy, for the reasons you have put there.

The questions themselves are a scum tell, at least to me (already commented on this btw), since you can get easy points to attack people on, and point out "slips" that don't exist. The use of this for town is very minimal; it's mostly, to use Auck's words when he talked about Blink, "town theater". What makes me doubt a bit here is that he was considering that as a possibility from a TOWN point of view, in his wall. That is actually giving him slight town points, now.
However, my earlier point trumps this because of the strenght, and the proof, of the point.

Agreed on Town Light.


- This is where I am in my reading atm, looks like y'all are claiming your names for I don't know which reason, and it's really weird.... so I'll reply to all of this.

[Light_Yagami]

-vote unvote

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Yea... there's sort of a reason why I need to reveal my role honestly.. Since it will help clear you (Kind of. Will explain what I mean by that). But ofc I would not want our final TPR to reveal.

I am Tadashi the Sheriff. I checked Auckmid (aka Aletha) and they came up as not suspicious.

Now, what I mean by "Kind of" equates to basically I could be the Lunatic. WHICH MEANS that Auckmid still has a chance at being the werewolf.

But if we are to believe this person that Light found is the werewolf, then Auckmid could more than likely really be NS.. but then again we don't know that could be our third TPR.

Not really sure what to feel, but thinking I could be the Lunatic is sort of already clawing at my brain and making me feel super super paranoid.. so I dunno.

Okay, and Auck confirmed he was Aletha. So, unless this is some bullshit I would slap Damus post-game for, AIVION, Auckmid and Light_Yagami are confirmed town. The only world in which they aren't is a world in which the game started with TWO minions and a werewolf, and that one of Auckmid and AIVION is the wolf, and the other one is a converted citizen, with Light being the 2nd original minion.
I trust Damus that he didn't do that lol, so I'll consider you three as confirmed town. @AIVION @Auckmid @Light_Yagami

Now, this means that two of: Naz, Arsonist, Blinkskater, and myself are scum. I know that I am not. Arsonist would be the worst conversion target ever, given that he is pretty useless and inactive atm, so it's between Naz and Blink. Blink is a scary player, and if I were the wolf, I would probably convert him over Naz. Therefore, I believe Blinkskater to be a Minion. Light's feedback also makes sense with this.

My thoughts are:

AIVION - Sheriff
Auckmid - Hunter
Light_Yagami - Lookout
Blinkskater - Minion
Arsonist - Probably Werewolf, maybe Citizen
Naz - Probably Citizen, maybe Werewolf
MM - Citizen

My name is Theodore, btw.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Also

-vote Blinkskater

We pretty much can't lose now lol.

[blinkskater]

Like i said earlier my lynch day 2 was likley inevitable.

I setup my day 1 to be the worst/best possible target for the wolf.

I do think i was targeted by the werewolf, so the only world that makes sense atm to me is that Yagami must be the wolf claiming lookout because I hardclaim Priest. I protected Naz last night.

Since Aivion knew Aucks name, i can't see them legitimately being scum together because of Yagamis Schulrey claim.

If yall think It should be myself lynched over yagami I won't fight to much about it because we still have a high % chance to win the game. However if I am correct in saying i successfully baited the werewolf to myself last night it means that I have a chance to successfully prevent a conversion from happening.

[blinkskater]

Derp. We lynch yagami and win the game.

-vote light_yagami

[AIVION]

Now that there is confirmation from Blink that he is indeed claiming to be the werewolf target from night 1, I can proceed...

Please read this post CAREFULLY everyone. It might be a bit long, but it's going to be significant to the outcome of the game and it will take less time to fully read then it did to write.

I'll start by stating that I am the hunter and one of the up to 3 TPRs. As I will go into detail on below, due to AIVION's claim and Blink's werewolf target claim, we are both confirmed town (again, full explanation in the "battle plan" section).

While we have enough information at this point to make all of the correct moves, there is an incredibly fringe scenario which we can't deal with very effectively. This scenario is exactly this: The werewolf is actually Light_Yagami, he successfully culted Blinkskater last night and there are only 2 PRs (myself and AIVION), disallowing for the possibility of a CC from naz, MM and Arsonist who would all be citizens. After he culted Blinkskater, he started pulling out the 9000 IQ plays by first doing his homework on how the lookout functioned, then claimed that his recently culted minion, Blinkskater, was visited by exactly one person last night, then came up with a completely fake RP name for the person who visited Blinkskater, completely throwing Blinkskater under the bus just for those town points. If this is the case where Light gambled on there only being 2 TPRs and then did a play this ballsy with this level of foresight, he honestly deserves the victory. We are not going to live in this world. If Blinkskater is a minion I think we have to assume that Light is NOT the werewolf.

The other fringe scenario is that Blink is lying about being the werewolf target despite still being town. While Blink might like his big plays, I don't think that he would ever lack the game sense to do something this stupid when it could backfire so easily and so catostrophically.

Now that is out of the way, we can begin the end game battle plan.

Spoiler : Town Victory Battle Plan :

What we know: Blinkskater was the cult target last night from the werewolf or he at least claims to be (chances are extremely high that he was indeed the target). Light, who was watching Blink, says that he was visited by exactly one person who has the RP name of Schuyler. AIVION claims to be sheriff/lunatic and learned that my RP name is Aletha. I am confirming that my RP name is indeed Aletha. Since AIVION and I both vouch that my RP name isn't Schuyler, the only way that my RP name is not Aletha is if we are both scum. If we were both scum, the werewolf could not have visited Blinkskater, meaning that Blink would have to be lying as town, and Light, who must also be telling the truth as town, did indeed see a TPR named Schuyler visit Blink last night, which no one is claiming. Since this would be ridiculously unlikely even if we were to humor the possibility that Blink is yanking us around as a town player, AIVION and myself are confirmed to not be a scum team. Since we aren't both scum and AIVION knows my RP name, he is confirmed town. Since my RP name is confirmed to not be Schuyler, I cannot have targeted Blinkskater so cannot be the werewolf if either Blink or Light are telling the truth and it isn't possible for all 3 of us to be scum. Since Blink is claiming to be the target from the werewolf, I cannot be the minion. As such, AIVION and myself are both confirmed town and taking up 2 of the hidden slots.

We can deduce 3 possible scenarios from all of this.

1 (By far the most likely): Blinkskater was a citizen who got culted last night. Seeing how Light being the werewolf in this scenario is ridiculously unlikely, we can then narrow down the possible werewolfs to MM, naz and Arsonist. From there, I'll kill one of them during the night and AIVION can check a different one of them, thereby forcing the werewolf to not be able to cult since doing so would cause a guaranteed lost. As such, a successful kill on the werewolf would cause us to win the game. If the werewolf isn't killed during the night the town still gets the opportunity to lynch one of the remaining 2 players from this group and still wins from a successful lynch.

Btw, this is all assuming that MM, naz and Arsonist aren't going to claim anything besides citizen. If one of them claims TPR then they are most likely the werewolf, but it allows for the possibility that Light is the werewolf to be dealt with, effectively guaranteeing a town victory since the identity of the werewolf would be narrowed to just 2.

2 (Fringe): Blinkskater is TPR and successfully managed to prevent the cult last night. If this is the scenario, since myself and AIVION are confirmed town and are both claiming the remaining PRs, Light would have to be the werewolf due to being the 4th PR claim and not being confirmed town. It would be a 5v1 with a revealed werewolf and the ability to kill him on that night. The math should be easy enough for everyone to do, but the long story short is that scum always loses from this position. As an additional note, since town guaranteed wins from that position, even Blinkskater should support his own lynch if this is the scenario.

3 (Next to no chance): Blinkskater is the werewolf. If this is the case, since Schuyler would have to be a TPR and AIVION and myself are already covering two of the TPR slots, once again Light would have to be the werewolf due to Schuyler not being the werewolf and there being no possibility of Light being TPR in addition to there being a TPR called Schuyler (aka, Light would have to be lying in this scenario as well). As such, it plays out identically to scenario 2 where Blinkskater is TPR.

As a side note, Light being scum is something that is mentioned in quite a few of these scenarios. To be clear, I think it is very unlikely that Light is actually scum, but it does need to be brought up if something very unexpected happens (Blinkskater flips something very unexpected or MM/naz/Arsonist claim TPR).

TLDR: We lynch Blink. He is overwhelmingly likely to flip minion, narrowing down the possible werewolves to MM, naz and Arsonist. We then get 2 opportunities to take out the werewolf and win as long as we don't guess wrong twice. In the fringe cases that he flips TPR or werewolf, we get a lock at the last remaining scum and will ultimately win as a result even though that is unlikely seeing how I would be incredibly surprised if Light ends up being scum.

-vote blinkskater

....Wow. Lol.

Well. Ok. I just woke up I gotta soak all this in... as this is rocking my world at the moment.

[AIVION]

@naz

Since your vote is still on me I assume you don't believe my sheriff claim.

Why is that?

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Like i said earlier my lynch day 2 was likley inevitable.

I setup my day 1 to be the worst/best possible target for the wolf.

I do think i was targeted by the werewolf, so the only world that makes sense atm to me is that Yagami must be the wolf claiming lookout because I hardclaim Priest. I protected Naz last night.

Since Aivion knew Aucks name, i can't see them legitimately being scum together because of Yagamis Schulrey claim.

If yall think It should be myself lynched over yagami I won't fight to much about it because we still have a high % chance to win the game. However if I am correct in saying i successfully baited the werewolf to myself last night it means that I have a chance to successfully prevent a conversion from happening.

@Damus_Graves If a TPR is targeted by a conversion attempt, does he get feedback from it?

Because if so, which I think it is, this just falls apart :P

[Light_Yagami]

Like i said earlier my lynch day 2 was likley inevitable.

I setup my day 1 to be the worst/best possible target for the wolf.

I do think i was targeted by the werewolf, so the only world that makes sense atm to me is that Yagami must be the wolf claiming lookout because I hardclaim Priest. I protected Naz last night.

Since Aivion knew Aucks name, i can't see them legitimately being scum together because of Yagamis Schulrey claim.

If yall think It should be myself lynched over yagami I won't fight to much about it because we still have a high % chance to win the game. However if I am correct in saying i successfully baited the werewolf to myself last night it means that I have a chance to successfully prevent a conversion from happening.

Derp. We lynch yagami and win the game.

-vote light_yagami

Unfortunately For You Blink.. Im Not Clever Enough To Come Up With Such A Bold Plan Such As That..

The Fact You Are Voting Me Confirms You Are Scum In My Book...

[AIVION]

@naz

Since your vote is still on me I assume you don't believe my sheriff claim.

Why is that?

I also want a full explanation on your scum read of me, as I really still can't rack my brain around how someone could possibly scum read someone for not supplying a read lists in a timely manner... especially when I:

1.) Claimed said read list after I got home from work like I promised

2.) Claimed a TPR at the time of voting.

Felt like an opportunistic vote to me at the time, and would like it explained.

[AIVION]

Unfortunately For You Blink.. Im Not Clever Enough To Come Up With Such A Bold Plan Such As That..

The Fact You Are Voting Me Confirms You Are Scum In My Book...

Actually your vote on me last might makes me think you could actually be werewolf.

You also unvote without explanation.

-vote Light_Yagami

Explain.

[AIVION]

I also still want @Arsonist RP name.

And I am still soaking in Auckmid's Hunter claim I won't lie... lol.

Gimme a bit to formulate this in my head I need coffee.

[Light_Yagami]

Actually your vote on me last might makes me think you could actually be werewolf.

You also unvote without explanation.

-vote Light_Yagami

Explain.

I Unvoted Because You Confirmed A RP Name And Have Been Town Read By More Then One Player Thus I Believe Ur Sheriff Claim For Now.

Im Also, Pretty Tired.. Still Pretty Groggy..

[Light_Yagami]

I also still want @Arsonist RP name.

And I am still soaking in Auckmid's Hunter claim I won't lie... lol.

Gimme a bit to formulate this in my head I need coffee.

I Also Need Coffee..

[AIVION]

I Unvoted Because You Confirmed A RP Name And Have Been Town Read By More Then One Player Thus I Believe Ur Sheriff Claim For Now.

Im Also, Pretty Tired.. Still Pretty Groggy..

While I agree with your tired sentiments, I want an explanation on said vote on me at the time as it seems like you are a possible werewolf candidate now.

[Light_Yagami]

@Damus_Graves If a TPR is targeted by a conversion attempt, does he get feedback from it?

Because if so, which I think it is, this just falls apart :P

Also I Havent Voted Blink Out Right Because Im Waiting For A Replay To This Question..

[AIVION]

Like i said earlier my lynch day 2 was likley inevitable.

I setup my day 1 to be the worst/best possible target for the wolf.

I do think i was targeted by the werewolf, so the only world that makes sense atm to me is that Yagami must be the wolf claiming lookout because I hardclaim Priest. I protected Naz last night.

Since Aivion knew Aucks name, i can't see them legitimately being scum together because of Yagamis Schulrey claim.

If yall think It should be myself lynched over yagami I won't fight to much about it because we still have a high % chance to win the game. However if I am correct in saying i successfully baited the werewolf to myself last night it means that I have a chance to successfully prevent a conversion from happening.

I didn't want to actually ask this, but because of the Auckmid Hunter claim, I'd like to know what TPR you are claiming to be.

[Light_Yagami]

While I agree with your tired sentiments, I want an explanation on said vote on me at the time as it seems like you are a possible werewolf candidate now.

At The Time I Put My Vote I Didnt Notice Ur Sheriff Claim Confirming Auckmids RP Name..

[Light_Yagami]

Unless Naz Counters Your Sheriff Claim Im Inclined To Believe You..

[Damus_Graves]

@Marshmallow Marshall
The targeted TPR would get feedback regarding the failed conversion attempt.

[AIVION]

At The Time I Put My Vote I Didnt Notice Ur Sheriff Claim Confirming Auckmids RP Name..

.....You know. I believe this sadly.

If this was any other person I'd call Bullshit... but because it's you I'm Inclined to believe it.

-vote Arsonist

I want your RP name @Arsonist

[AIVION]

Like actually... I want you to claim it immediately. Don't catch up don't read the thread trust me I am a sheriff claim @Arsonist .

Just read this post, then quote me and claim your RP name...

It's important

[AIVION]

Like actually... I want you to claim it immediately. Don't catch up don't read the thread trust me I am a sheriff claim @Arsonist .

Just read this post, then quote me and claim your RP name...

It's important

RP name = your name provided in your rolecard @Arsonist .

[Light_Yagami]

@Marshmallow Marshall
The targeted TPR would get feedback regarding the failed conversion attempt.

Then Blink Is On Bullshit

[Light_Yagami]

I Recommend At This Junction That Hunter Be On Arsonist

[AIVION]

I Recommend At This Junction That Hunter Be On Arsonist

....Your ruining my plan sir.

There's no Hunter! It's a Light Yagami Prank.

Just claim your RP name Arsonist!

[AIVION]

Ah... good old Coffee.

It's like waking up to a cup of heaven~

[Light_Yagami]

Now that there is confirmation from Blink that he is indeed claiming to be the werewolf target from night 1, I can proceed...

Please read this post CAREFULLY everyone. It might be a bit long, but it's going to be significant to the outcome of the game and it will take less time to fully read then it did to write.

I'll start by stating that I am the hunter and one of the up to 3 TPRs. As I will go into detail on below, due to AIVION's claim and Blink's werewolf target claim, we are both confirmed town (again, full explanation in the "battle plan" section).

While we have enough information at this point to make all of the correct moves, there is an incredibly fringe scenario which we can't deal with very effectively. This scenario is exactly this: The werewolf is actually Light_Yagami, he successfully culted Blinkskater last night and there are only 2 PRs (myself and AIVION), disallowing for the possibility of a CC from naz, MM and Arsonist who would all be citizens. After he culted Blinkskater, he started pulling out the 9000 IQ plays by first doing his homework on how the lookout functioned, then claimed that his recently culted minion, Blinkskater, was visited by exactly one person last night, then came up with a completely fake RP name for the person who visited Blinkskater, completely throwing Blinkskater under the bus just for those town points. If this is the case where Light gambled on there only being 2 TPRs and then did a play this ballsy with this level of foresight, he honestly deserves the victory. We are not going to live in this world. If Blinkskater is a minion I think we have to assume that Light is NOT the werewolf.

The other fringe scenario is that Blink is lying about being the werewolf target despite still being town. While Blink might like his big plays, I don't think that he would ever lack the game sense to do something this stupid when it could backfire so easily and so catostrophically.

Now that is out of the way, we can begin the end game battle plan.

Spoiler : Town Victory Battle Plan :

What we know: Blinkskater was the cult target last night from the werewolf or he at least claims to be (chances are extremely high that he was indeed the target). Light, who was watching Blink, says that he was visited by exactly one person who has the RP name of Schuyler. AIVION claims to be sheriff/lunatic and learned that my RP name is Aletha. I am confirming that my RP name is indeed Aletha. Since AIVION and I both vouch that my RP name isn't Schuyler, the only way that my RP name is not Aletha is if we are both scum. If we were both scum, the werewolf could not have visited Blinkskater, meaning that Blink would have to be lying as town, and Light, who must also be telling the truth as town, did indeed see a TPR named Schuyler visit Blink last night, which no one is claiming. Since this would be ridiculously unlikely even if we were to humor the possibility that Blink is yanking us around as a town player, AIVION and myself are confirmed to not be a scum team. Since we aren't both scum and AIVION knows my RP name, he is confirmed town. Since my RP name is confirmed to not be Schuyler, I cannot have targeted Blinkskater so cannot be the werewolf if either Blink or Light are telling the truth and it isn't possible for all 3 of us to be scum. Since Blink is claiming to be the target from the werewolf, I cannot be the minion. As such, AIVION and myself are both confirmed town and taking up 2 of the hidden slots.

We can deduce 3 possible scenarios from all of this.

1 (By far the most likely): Blinkskater was a citizen who got culted last night. Seeing how Light being the werewolf in this scenario is ridiculously unlikely, we can then narrow down the possible werewolfs to MM, naz and Arsonist. From there, I'll kill one of them during the night and AIVION can check a different one of them, thereby forcing the werewolf to not be able to cult since doing so would cause a guaranteed lost. As such, a successful kill on the werewolf would cause us to win the game. If the werewolf isn't killed during the night the town still gets the opportunity to lynch one of the remaining 2 players from this group and still wins from a successful lynch.

Btw, this is all assuming that MM, naz and Arsonist aren't going to claim anything besides citizen. If one of them claims TPR then they are most likely the werewolf, but it allows for the possibility that Light is the werewolf to be dealt with, effectively guaranteeing a town victory since the identity of the werewolf would be narrowed to just 2.

2 (Fringe): Blinkskater is TPR and successfully managed to prevent the cult last night. If this is the scenario, since myself and AIVION are confirmed town and are both claiming the remaining PRs, Light would have to be the werewolf due to being the 4th PR claim and not being confirmed town. It would be a 5v1 with a revealed werewolf and the ability to kill him on that night. The math should be easy enough for everyone to do, but the long story short is that scum always loses from this position. As an additional note, since town guaranteed wins from that position, even Blinkskater should support his own lynch if this is the scenario.

3 (Next to no chance): Blinkskater is the werewolf. If this is the case, since Schuyler would have to be a TPR and AIVION and myself are already covering two of the TPR slots, once again Light would have to be the werewolf due to Schuyler not being the werewolf and there being no possibility of Light being TPR in addition to there being a TPR called Schuyler (aka, Light would have to be lying in this scenario as well). As such, it plays out identically to scenario 2 where Blinkskater is TPR.

As a side note, Light being scum is something that is mentioned in quite a few of these scenarios. To be clear, I think it is very unlikely that Light is actually scum, but it does need to be brought up if something very unexpected happens (Blinkskater flips something very unexpected or MM/naz/Arsonist claim TPR).

TLDR: We lynch Blink. He is overwhelmingly likely to flip minion, narrowing down the possible werewolves to MM, naz and Arsonist. We then get 2 opportunities to take out the werewolf and win as long as we don't guess wrong twice. In the fringe cases that he flips TPR or werewolf, we get a lock at the last remaining scum and will ultimately win as a result even though that is unlikely seeing how I would be incredibly surprised if Light ends up being scum.

-vote blinkskater

Umm We Have A Hunter Hard Claim Here..

....Your ruining my plan sir.

There's no Hunter! It's a Light Yagami Prank.

Just claim your RP name Arsonist!

Umm, This Is No Prank..

[AIVION]

Umm We Have A Hunter Hard Claim Here..



Umm, This Is No Prank..

OMG why do you not have the ability to read between the lines?

Just stop for now please... Let Arsonist read my post and claim his RP name... ugh.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

....Your ruining my plan sir.

There's no Hunter! It's a Light Yagami Prank.

Just claim your RP name Arsonist!

.... Didn't you check him clean? O.O

[Light_Yagami]

OMG why do you not have the ability to read between the lines?

Just stop for now please... Let Arsonist read my post and claim his RP name... ugh.

Because Shit Posting And Manipulation Will Not Get Is Any Where At This Point.. Its Time To Win..

[Light_Yagami]

-vote blinkskater

[Light_Yagami]

OMG why do you not have the ability to read between the lines?

Just stop for now please... Let Arsonist read my post and claim his RP name... ugh.

Also Im Already Aware Of Your Plan @AIVION You Want Him To Claim A BS RP Name And Come Tomorrow Ull Have Checked Him To Discover His True Name..

[Light_Yagami]

I Also Have A Plan.. U See Ill Be Watching Arsonist Tonight To Confirm Both You And The Hunter..

[Light_Yagami]

Seeing As How I Get RP Names In Feed Back As Well

[AIVION]

.... Didn't you check him clean? O.O

Sigh.

Actually my plan was him to just read my post and comment his name. And I was HOPING he'd claim schyuler and not have a chance to make up some BS name if that was the case @Light_Yagami

It may still happen just shush.

And yes I did clean him Mr. Squishy, just forget about it Light obviously can't read between the lines.

[AIVION]

I Also Have A Plan.. U See Ill Be Watching Arsonist Tonight To Confirm Both You And The Hunter..

I don't agree with Auckmid choosing the same name as me tonight. The plan (I read his post finally now that i'm awake) is for him to kill, say, arsonist if we lynch blink and I visit MM or Naz to make sure that if the werewolf converted they lost.