S-FM A Forum Mafia Spring Beginning

[SuperJack]

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[Rachyl]

hellooooo! is anyone here yet? we should start discussing. and any players that havent posted should post so we know where you stand.

[srceenplay]

@ccantman
What if the sheriff dies night one? What information do we get then? Do we then no vote again day two and hope the doc saves someone?
Lynching gives information. We are afforded a couple town deaths by our number advantage. The best thing town can do right now is sort by asking questions of people.
Do you have any feelings on anyone's alignment right now?

[srceenplay]

@ Sheriff - you should probably check srceenplay or Rachyl tonight.

Why would you say that???? This is not a protown statement. Don't say things like this.

[srceenplay]

I think it's definitely suspicious that screenplay is acting how he is, but he could still be town. Nothing has pushed me over the edge on anyone yet. As for Alijach, I feel like he's town but I also think it may be correct to lynch today the more I think about it. He doesn't want to do that, but hell it's a beginner game so I could be wrong and he could be right. Either way, I think screenplay is more likely evil than him.

You said I am suspicious and more evil. Why? Explain your thoughts so everyone can understand where you are coming from.

[srceenplay]

@Fury
@Alijach

Defending is not evil. Her defending is not the point. She said she thinks he is town for no reason. Now imply that she has reason/information. No town has information besides what's in this thread.

What has she done more than me that is protown?
I have created discussion.
I have found a lead.
I have followed up on a lead and now it's getting ignored.

There is no reason for us to end the day fast. I am not saying to do that. We can still gather information as the day goes on. There is still another mafia to find.

Look at what I have said about her. Tell me the town things you see and tell me the scum things you see.

[Enoch]

i don't trust anyone you all sound like sadistic killers

[Fury]

It's obvious we found a bad one here. Wishing everyone good luck like he's on opposite team and we need luck.
Let's kill this one first.

I just agreed with Rachyl in thinking that this "lead" wasn't legitimate. So, I thought that it made you more evil than the person you were accusing. Maybe I'm off-base here, and I'm certainly willing to admit I'm wrong, but I simply agreed with Rachyl and Varnic in concluding you were more likely evil than the person who you randomly accused. I know and I definitely agree with some of your points that we need to get information. I've been saying this for a while now, so I certainly agree with you. However, randomly going on someone just for saying "us" isn't the best way to scum hunt.

[srceenplay]

I used that to get the game going. Skip past that. Has there been discussion? What have you seen? What would you expect to see to find Mafia?

[Varnic]

I'm abstaining for the day. I'm not too keen on random lynch. Mathematically, we have a much higher chance of losing a gamble.

[srceenplay]

Then how do we win?

[srceenplay]

Let Mafia kill us off until our odds are better to lynch them???

[Fury]

Mathematically, if we don't use any logic, then yes it is unfavorable to lynch on day 1. However, we do have two people who haven't said a word. I'd be interested to at least HEAR them say one thing. Considering they are very silent and haven't given a stance on anything, it is certainly higher than a 1/9 chance that one of them are evil. It seems foolish to wait until probability favors us, as that will not likely occur soon.

[Enoch]

Well maybe they haven't woken up yet how would a trial work anyway we need enough people here at the same time to even be able to vote

[Rachyl]

We still have a ton of time left to discuss, i think we should use that time to our benefit. Time is on our side

[srceenplay]

Not a lot of time. People are not talking. Explaining thoughts or discussing ideas. We are going to lose if everyone doesn't start to play.

[Rachyl]

Yeah i agree, theres people in the Thread Information thing at the bottom of the screen showing theyre online but they wont talk. we neeed to figure out who is not talking and why

[Fury]

That's why I said it would be a waste to skip without hearing from them. If they don't participate they are useless or evil.

[Rachyl]

Okay, the people that were lurking before you guys need to talk, or im going to assume you are either mafia or not playing. We really need the town to come together right now so we can figure out who is who. Thanks. Im going to go take a nap

[ccantman]

@ccantman
What if the sheriff dies night one? What information do we get then? Do we then no vote again day two and hope the doc saves someone?
Lynching gives information. We are afforded a couple town deaths by our number advantage. The best thing town can do right now is sort by asking questions of people.
Do you have any feelings on anyone's alignment right now?

As I said.

There is a risk of the sheroff dying N1, but there is less risk for the reward if we wait a day of lynching since we gain night information.
Compared to if we "random" lynch someone today. The risk of lynching a town is higher, and while the reward is higher (we get a mafia) the risk is also higher (we lose two town in one day's cycle) and if we do it too early, someone could die before someone even gets to speak in this topic. For example we need 5 votes, if everyone that has been active so far were to lynch, we could hit one of the people who hasn't even talked yet. But we would have no idea whose side that even would be.



Here:
The chance the sheriff is killed at night is 1 in 7 (we should assume the mafia would not target each other). We could raise that higher as IF the sherif was targeted by mafia, we also have a 1/7 shot of the doctor targeted the sherif. Though the consort has an equal shot of targeting the doctor in that case. There is a chance our sherif lives but gets consorted, but even accounting for that I still think the risk is approx 1 in 7.

The chance we lynch a mafia Day 1 though is 2 in 9 (and this is only if we can get 5 town on board to being with)
22% chance we lynch mafia (which means 78% chance we hit town [and then thats higher as mafia is more likely to vote in this one, but then by that logic mafia wouldn't help in the lynch or 1 wouold and 1 would not, so 4/5 of the votes are probably town])
14% chance our sherif is killed

I think 14% chance is better for our town odds than not.


Also IF we do lose the sherif. There is more information we gain. Who was the sherif. Why did mafia get them (getting the sherif N1 with no claim I think would be somewhat lucky unless the sheriff made some huge slip) What did they say, Since they are now confirmed town, their words hold more weight. Who disagreed with them, etc. I 100% think we should start lynching day 2, as the town needs to lynch to win. No lynching means the town will just lose. But right now, we just lack information, both from our invest role, if the doctor saved anyone. and If someone is killed during the night, what were there action day 1 that makes that signification (which is why I agree lettting day 1 proceed as much as possible was the correct move for the town instead of skipping, compared to skipping (which we can't do anyway) since we need information)

[srceenplay]

That's wrong. The odds of them hitting sheriff is 2-6. Not going to explain that now but I can later. Actually it might be better than that.

Maybe we will get some replacements in an hour. No one is really trying to engage with one another. At least talk to each other why you don't like about me.

[srceenplay]

I'm going out tonight. Be back tomorrow.

[SuperJack]

@TwentyTwo has replaced @Dimento

[SuperJack]

@thedougler has replaced @Trine

[TwentyTwo]

Hey guys, I'm in this game now. I'll do some reading and make some scum reports.

[thedougler]

Hello all. Apparently I'm a shitizen . Pls no lynch.

[Rachyl]

Hi guys!!! welcome

[thedougler]

any suspects yet?????

People who ask for leads are invariably evils. GG Rachyl I'm onto you.

The only team that wins with Random lynching is mafia, which makes me suspect on srceenplayer a lot. Plus, at least we know that he's eager to lynch people, right?

Alijach and Rachyl seem to be defending each other for no good reason. Lynching d1 is pro town if only for the information it gives us going into d2.

I agree they could be silent. and also id like to add that we should be weary of anyone not talking. so pay attention to the players that are lurking in the -Thread Information- part of the screen below.

Well the guy I'm replacing was a lurker and he's town so our logic failed here. You honestly seem scummy and like you're talking out your ass just for the sake of building our trust in you.

Wow I didn't expect this to blow up so much on day 1 and already since you two are arguing that means you likely both aren't mafia One of you still could be, but likely not both.

I've played as mafia before, and my strategy was to constantly smear my allies as "possible scum" but eventually pivot my argument against a "definite scum" who was of course a townie. The low intensity warfare between Screenplay and Rachyl is just what I would expect from two scums based on my experience. We should be extra careful if they coalesce against someone else seemingly out of the blue.

How do you guys feel about Alijach and Screenplay?

Whenever scum is casting suspicion onto two people, one of them is generally an ally and the other is the town they're REALLY trying to get lynched. If accusations of collusion ever come up later about Rachyl and Alijach, he can always point to this quote and say "no look I accused him TOO!!!" My suspicion right now is that Rachyl and Alijach are the scum.

Sorry, I was sleeping, going to write this and then go back to sleep:

I want to say that I trust srceenplay, but I don't as the way he's poiting fingers at me and Rachyl just because, as I said before, we're trying to get info/have a little chat with others. I think, that srceenplay is the most-likely one to be scum as how suspicious he's behaving. I want to gather info today, and if we can, lynch someone IF we get enough info that leads to the 51% of players to suspect on the lynched guy.

Just to recap: Yes, I don't trust srceenplay, but I don't have enough evidence to vote against him. If I, or someone, gathers enough information against ANYONE who is suspicious enough, I will vote with them. (of course, just if the evidence is valid enough)

Good night, and I hope we can all join in a friendly chat, just to see how this game develops.
PS: I would really like to see your answers on the short questions I made before, just to know us better! Good night!

There's a lot of dissonance in this post, like you're trying to entertain two realities. You seem to "know" Screenplay is town, but then cast him in the scummiest light possible. You then literally just say you will just go along with the majority. Hmmm....

-vote Alijach

[ccantman]

That's wrong. The odds of them hitting sheriff is 2-6. Not going to explain that now but I can later. Actually it might be better than that.

Maybe we will get some replacements in an hour. No one is really trying to engage with one another. At least talk to each other why you don't like about me.

Please do.

We have 7 town
1 doctor
1 sheriff

Mafia targeting mafia wont happen
Mafia targeting consort wont happen.

So 2 players will not be targeted for kill

If we don't lynch there are 7 possible targets for them to target.

assuming what is said day 1 is ignored and mafia just hit a person based on a dice roll, they have a 1 in 7 shot of killing the sheriff.
How are you getting a different number?

If your including the consort. I said that changes the N1 info, but the sherif is still alive, which means the chance the sherif is alive Day 2 is 6 in 7 shots.

If there are other factors included, such as the sherif stating "I am sherif" that can change things. Also if a citizen claims sherif to help save sherif and have the doctor try to save the cit claiming sherif, and make the consort/mafia waste a night on a blank. then obvious its not a blind shot anymore, but no one has claimed those roles yet. Though now that i said that, i suppose someone doing so is less helpful, or at least I can't claim sheriff any more.

[Rachyl]

Okay since you think im scum with alijach i will just go ahead and prove you wrong then. Since i am Town. And everything ive done and said so far is to help the Town.

-vote Alijach

[thedougler]

So assuming there is no info day 1,
IF you were mafia, the best thing would be to not stand out. Standing out means the sherif would be on you at night
So by that logic, only town people truely could be suspecious.

Now this is giving mafia the benefit of the doubt of being semi-logical players. (which we probably should, because if they aren't they will slip up otherwise)

Now given that logic on what mafia would do. Causing discussion would best come from a town.

Then you can logic that maybe mafia knows thats how town would think so that then they can do what screenplay is doing. but then your guessing and second guess each other on all the layers. And it goes on forever.

So on that note. Screen play is probably town, and if not we should know tommorrow. I don't know if the the sherif is worth a mafia kill, but I'm willing to bet in the set up, sherif trading their life for one mafia is worth it and should reveal the day they find mafia (though potentially wait a few hours to see if the mafia outs his/her partner before revealing)


(we can then get into the issue of how do we know that sherif is the sherif and not mafia claiming sheif, but we can handle that hurdle when we get to it and just keep it in mind for now)

So overall:
Screenplay is probably town, because mafia would not be doing what screenplay is doing.
On that note, town still has low info and even if we come to the conlusion that X is probably mafia) we shouldn't actively lynch that person and instead majorly hint that person so that the sherif looks at that person tonight. (again under the assumption that sherif reveal is worth a mafia trade)

The risk is the sherif may die N1 or be role-blocked by the consort, but I think the reward is worth the risk for now.


this only applies to Day 1. Once Day 2 occurs, we will have a lot more info
A)Did doctor save someone?
B)Did sherif live and find now

If both happen,as an example we theoretically have verified 4 of the town and can go from there
W is doc
X was saved (not mafia)
Y is confirmed town by sherif
Z is sherif

And can better benefit outing people.

I will stand by that Day 1 there should be no lynch and will not vote for anyone

I think you are heavily overstating the chances something illuminating will come out of n1. A lynch today does far more than that because based on how everyone voted everyone has far more info to work off of tomorrow. The risk of losing a sheriff or doc who might have eventually proved useful to us is nothing in comparison. I'd rather we see how people vote and how they react to having votes on them.

As I said.

There is a risk of the sheroff dying N1, but there is less risk for the reward if we wait a day of lynching since we gain night information.
Compared to if we "random" lynch someone today. The risk of lynching a town is higher, and while the reward is higher (we get a mafia) the risk is also higher (we lose two town in one day's cycle) and if we do it too early, someone could die before someone even gets to speak in this topic. For example we need 5 votes, if everyone that has been active so far were to lynch, we could hit one of the people who hasn't even talked yet. But we would have no idea whose side that even would be.



Here:
The chance the sheriff is killed at night is 1 in 7 (we should assume the mafia would not target each other). We could raise that higher as IF the sherif was targeted by mafia, we also have a 1/7 shot of the doctor targeted the sherif. Though the consort has an equal shot of targeting the doctor in that case. There is a chance our sherif lives but gets consorted, but even accounting for that I still think the risk is approx 1 in 7.

The chance we lynch a mafia Day 1 though is 2 in 9 (and this is only if we can get 5 town on board to being with)
22% chance we lynch mafia (which means 78% chance we hit town [and then thats higher as mafia is more likely to vote in this one, but then by that logic mafia wouldn't help in the lynch or 1 wouold and 1 would not, so 4/5 of the votes are probably town])
14% chance our sherif is killed

I think 14% chance is better for our town odds than not.


Also IF we do lose the sherif. There is more information we gain. Who was the sherif. Why did mafia get them (getting the sherif N1 with no claim I think would be somewhat lucky unless the sheriff made some huge slip) What did they say, Since they are now confirmed town, their words hold more weight. Who disagreed with them, etc. I 100% think we should start lynching day 2, as the town needs to lynch to win. No lynching means the town will just lose. But right now, we just lack information, both from our invest role, if the doctor saved anyone. and If someone is killed during the night, what were there action day 1 that makes that signification (which is why I agree lettting day 1 proceed as much as possible was the correct move for the town instead of skipping, compared to skipping (which we can't do anyway) since we need information)

Town's advantage is in numbers and its disadvantage obviously is information. I am willing to lynch a potential townie today in order to gain info that can help us tomorrow. Unlike the mafia, town only wins by lynching and I'd like to take every opportunity we can to lynch players who act scummy. As you pointed out the odds of us lynching the sheriff (1/9) are lower than the sheriff dying tonight (1/7) anyway. We can't hold ourselves back forever to prevent something basically beyond our control.

Maybe its because there are more new players in this game, but in every other FM I've done we all agreed a d1 lynch was pro town for the wealth of information it gives us.

[thedougler]

Okay since you think im scum with alijach i will just go ahead and prove you wrong then. Since i am Town. And everything ive done and said so far is to help the Town.

-vote Alijach

This begs a few questions, Rachyl.

You would lynch a potential town just to prove your own innocence??? Do you have some other reason to doubt him? And do you concede that we need a d1 lynch.

[Rachyl]

This begs a few questions, Rachyl.

You would lynch a potential town just to prove your own innocence??? Do you have some other reason to doubt him? And do you concede that we need a d1 lynch.

I agree and see now that we need a day 1 lynch. And i dont know if hes town or not. But i think you guys should lynch Alijach, then make the sheriff check me tonight.

[ccantman]

I think you are heavily overstating the chances something illuminating will come out of n1. A lynch today does far more than that because based on how everyone voted everyone has far more info to work off of tomorrow. The risk of losing a sheriff or doc who might have eventually proved useful to us is nothing in comparison. I'd rather we see how people vote and how they react to having votes on them.



Town's advantage is in numbers and its disadvantage obviously is information. I am willing to lynch a potential townie today in order to gain info that can help us tomorrow. Unlike the mafia, town only wins by lynching and I'd like to take every opportunity we can to lynch players who act scummy. As you pointed out the odds of us lynching the sheriff (1/9) are lower than the sheriff dying tonight (1/7) anyway. We can't hold ourselves back forever to prevent something basically beyond our control.

Maybe its because there are more new players in this game, but in every other FM I've done we all agreed a d1 lynch was pro town for the wealth of information it gives us.

Fair enough, it might be because I am new.
I know in Sc2 Mafia, its worth pass day 1, but that is because you have more invest roles.

Though I also know in RL Mafia we also find it(or at least my group of players) useful to pass Day 1, or more, we discuss day 1, but not actually lynch anyone (though because there is a "trial" and vote before hand that also might factor into discision)

I fullly accept that Forum mafia might have its own internal meta of playstyle, and as a first time FM player I do not know those things at the moment.

That being said, I need to think for a bit who to vote for as I was very much on the point of no day 1 lynch.
It seems like Alijach is the only vote that matters at the moment. (voting for screen play for example wouldn't matter as only alijach would or would not get the 5 votes)


Also note, before this post I had a post that is also pendning Mod approval, so this post is after your insiite, and that one was not when it does get approved

[Fury]

I'm a little unsure about lynching Alijach. I've not stood by his side, but I definitely have favored others over him. I'm at least not going to vote him until he responds since 51% pushes a lynch. And yes we already established that it's likely best to lynch day 1, but I guess you guys saw it fit to revisit that since 2 new people joined.

[thedougler]

I'm a little unsure about lynching Alijach. I've not stood by his side, but I definitely have favored others over him. I'm at least not going to vote him until he responds since 51% pushes a lynch. And yes we already established that it's likely best to lynch day 1, but I guess you guys saw it fit to revisit that since 2 new people joined.

So that's one defender. Makes me want to change my vote even less.

[ccantman]

Ok, I went back through the whole chat on how this all started.

I am confused on why we want to lynch Alijach.

It all starts with Allijack making a comment and the Screen play point this out.
This starts the discussion and everything rolling.
Now from my point of view SP is just starting discussion, and if my history of IR is any indication, that's how you want to start thing. accuse someone and see how everyone else response. As for the reasoning for why Allijack was accused for, I think doesn't hold more weight. syntax, symantics, in the end we started to point fingers.

And then from here.
Rachel points to SP for being scummy for pointing at Allijack
SP then says R is protecting A
And then there is back and forth for a while.
All while A had realistically no rebuttle to the accutation (though, let's be honest, what can anyone do besides say they are a cit? Mafia will lie, and our doc and sherif want to stay hidden)

So looiking at this point in time, the point that Allijack is scrum still really hasn't been defined. Allijack isn't defending someone who is scummy or accusing someone town, all allijack is the target of screen play.

From this.
Let's say Allijack IS Mafia, Screenplay's comments don't really prove this point, it would just prove Rachel's allignment to being scum
Let's say Allijack IS town, screen play is accusing town, but I think this is more just point at someone and see how it goes. see who defends, who doesn't, etc. Info wise, even if we lynch allijack, I can't really say this makes SP mafia because by starting discussion, that is what town wants to do. (again based on douglas saying D1 lynch is pro town, which I have to take as is since I believe him and TwentyTwo do actually have experince in FM?)

So based on this. Shouldn't we be looking at Rachel and Screenplay?

Looking at SP, Accused Allijack and fights with Rachel.
Looking at Rachel, Defends Allijack and fights with SP.

At this point isn't Rachel the one who is acting scummy not allijack?
If allijack is mafia, defending allijack is what rachel would want to do
If allijack is town turning on him would also in rachel's benefit?

If rachel is town. defending allijack makes sense, but wouldn't voting screenplay be the vote not allijack at this point in time?

Maybe I am missing something when I was going through things, but it seems Rachel is the name we want to hit not allijack, no?

-vote Rachyl

[Rachyl]

Nope its not me. And im claiming Doctor as of right now. So if you lose me you lose your doctor that simple. Also since all you guys want to point the finger at me then you may as well have the sheriff check me tonight. Because if you dont you lose your doctor.

[ccantman]

-unvote

[thedougler]

Nope its not me. And im claiming Doctor as of right now. So if you lose me you lose your doctor that simple. Also since all you guys want to point the finger at me then you may as well have the sheriff check me tonight. Because if you dont you lose your doctor.

Anyone willing to counterclaim this? Also RIP Rachyl. It was good knowing you. Odds you'll make it past n1 are negligible if this is true.

[Rachyl]

Anyone that counter claims is Mafia. Also, anyone who doesnt unvote me right now is Mafia. And anyone that comes up against me is Mafia.

[srceenplay]

@Rachyl
That was stupid. If you are doctor you don't put your self for no reason. Now if you are really doctor town doesn't have one.

[srceenplay]

[uv]unvote[/uv]

[srceenplay]

-unvote

[Rachyl]

@Rachyl
That was stupid. If you are doctor you don't put your self for no reason. Now if you are really doctor town doesn't have one.

I had no choice you guys were all going to lynch me.

[Rachyl]

Lets hurry up and find the mafia. Even if i get lynched, we can still win. Who has barely been talking?

[Fury]

Like I said, I wanted to wait a bit to lynch Alijach since as of this post we have 20 hours, but I'm leaning towards lynching him. And Dougler, yes I am defending him a little, but that is because we have time and I think he deserves that time at least. Do not connect me to him if he turns out evil because I'm just trying to utilize our time to discuss rather than immediately lynch.

[Fury]

So that's one defender. Makes me want to change my vote even less.

So that post makes me believe you view me as mafia along with Alijach? Based on what? This quote?

I'm a little unsure about lynching Alijach. I've not stood by his side, but I definitely have favored others over him. I'm at least not going to vote him until he responds since 51% pushes a lynch. And yes we already established that it's likely best to lynch day 1, but I guess you guys saw it fit to revisit that since 2 new people joined.

I erred on the side of caution, but I still said we should lynch day 1. If anything you believing me to be scum based on me trying to give Alijach the benefit of time makes me wary. Why not just give him some time? I don't mean wait until day 2, but I mean hours. That is perfectly innocuous and the correct move, I believe.

[TwentyTwo]

Anyone willing to counterclaim this? Also RIP Rachyl. It was good knowing you. Odds you'll make it past n1 are negligible if this is true.

You do realise counter claiming a doc on day 1 is a very very bad idea. Also someone over your posts are a little over the top, but hey your a cool guy

[ccantman]

Re: S-FM A Forum Mafia Spring Beginning
Ok based on the latest reveal.

My last post's point still applies, no?. Allijack doesn't seem like he should be the one lynched, and it should be SP or Rachel. Since Rachel claims super town, and unless there is a counterclaim, will be town. Doesn't that leave SP as the person to vote, not Allijack?

-vote screenplay