S-FM 204: Insanity

[Gyrlander]

I love how gylander didn't just immediately assume rlvg was a lunatic but went through all these mental gymnastics to get to this point lol.

Seriously, I didn't have any idea what was happening and therefore I was entertained. That's why you actually got some very good posts from he here!

[ThePaladin]

By top lynch target today is still TDL unless we get some really interesting roleclaims.

[Gyrlander]

By top lynch target today is still TDL unless we get some really interesting roleclaims.

Explain why.

GOOD NIGHT.

[ThePaladin]

Explain why.

GOOD NIGHT.

​I SORTA DID. FOR 90% OF THE DAY.

[Unknown1234]

HEY GUY

poiler : Asylum Director :


After hearing the directors soothing voice at day break, you now know that you truly have Misguided Motives.



After hearing the directors rage inducing voice at day break, you now know that you must have Sinister Motives.

THERES FEEDBACK FOR BOTH ALIGNMENTS.
the only requirement is that you recieved an insane rolecard not that oyu are insane.

Sorry, I'm dumb, I thought it was only if they died.

[secondpassing]

@secondpassing Claim role(s) , actions, feedback.

All I know is that I am not a serial killer.

[secondpassing]

Though, my most important feedback was that my death note did not show nor did I get a kill on yzb25 nor did I get a kill on Iced_Monopoly.

[secondpassing]

No feedback last night. The most important feedback I've gotten is that Taekyon visited me night 1, which either means he's cult (and is a lying sinister that never visited me in the first place), or that I am some other power role. Now to go back and read.

[secondpassing]

Night one? No. Last night I specified Secondpassing, but the first night I didn't think of it since I didn't need to visit. All I said was "alert"

SK kills roleblockers - ON

If you only specified me, that means you could be our bus driver o.o"

[Unknown1234]

SK kills roleblockers - ON

If you only specified me, that means you could be our bus driver o.o"

Were you Given a ride? I like Busdriver.

[Unknown1234]

SP are you claiming citizen as your Rolecard?

[Unknown1234]

Actually it's 3:30 and I'm tired, I'm gonna go. I'll catch up in the morning.

[secondpassing]

Were you Given a ride? I like Busdriver.

No, no feedback that wasn't faulty.

[secondpassing]

SP are you claiming citizen as your Rolecard?

Serial Killer.

[Gyrlander]

[QUOTE=secondpassing;626715]Serial Killer.[/QUOTE
SHOCKING

[yzb25]

Yesterdays lynch was quite unsettling. How you were all convinced that lynching a BD claim on a slot that was about to be replaced was a good idea, when there were other candidates is beyond me.

Last night I visited RLVG, "Your need to prove yourself has led you to the cell of RLVG, who you believe to be an Citizen.". Given that it appears citizen, thats a 25% chance that he is, and a 50% chance that my role fucked up. Only confirmation I can receive on my role today will come in the feedback produced by @Spruance .

There's 4 equal possibilities:

Sheriff 1/4
??? 1/4
Cit 1/4 <-- I broke up the fake citizen slot so everything was a 1/4. Pretty.
Cit 1/4

If you don't come up with an estimation about how likely it is that ??? will produce a citizen, you have no way of knowing the chances you are correct.

For example, assume ??? has a 100% chance of being citizen. You rolled citizen, so you know you didn't get sheriff, so that means we have 3 equal possibilities:

??? [citizen] 1/3
citizen 1/3
citizen 1/3

Which implies that you have a 2/3 chance of failure.

Obviously 100% is a ridiculous estimation - that would mean everyone is a citizen. If we assume ??? has a 50% chance of being citizen (if half of the players are citizens, and all players have an equal chance of being citizen) then:

1/6-Citizen [correct]
1/6-some other shit [correct]
1/6-citizen [wrong]
1/6-citizen [wrong]
1/6-citizen [wrong]
1/6-citizen [wrong] <--- all the false citizens still add up to 2/3s lol

You know you didn't roll "some other shit", so we'll do the same thing we did before with the sheriff bit:

1/5 citizen [true]
4/5 citizen [false]

So then you have a 20% chance of being right.

I think half of the players being citizen is still too high. So we can instead go with a quarter of the players being citizen:
1/12-citizen[correct]
3/12-some other shit[corrrect]
8/12-citizen[false]

which leads to a 1/9 chance of being correct, or an 11% chance approximately.

So as you can see, the chances of you being correct are (probably lol) around 10-20%, depending on how many citizens you think there are. This is also based on the assumption RLVG wasn't lying about his rolecard, but that won't affect the probability much.

But this also just shows that trying to apply probability to your thought process in this game is a crappy waste of time lol.

[yzb25]

So as you can see, the chances of you being correct are (probably lol) around 10-20%, depending on the probability that RLVG is truly citizen. This is also based on the assumption RLVG wasn't lying about his rolecard, but that won't affect the probability (as long as RLVG's rolecard isn't also citizen).

But this also just shows that trying to apply probability to your thought process in this game is a crappy waste of time lol.

dfghjkl

[GameFreak]

SP brought up an interesting point that Taek might not be ML but Cult and Spruance has every reason to comfirm this as ML since he might have been converted.

[GameFreak]

Also as i claimed earlier i have received Escort and i visited Spruance D2, but i'm fairly confident i'm not an escort.

[yzb25]

I've been reading really closely and carefully. Something fucking mad has happened this game, if what I think is going on is going on.

I'm going to put up a very important wall post later so you can see what has happened from my perspective.

[GameFreak]

I've been reading really closely and carefully. Something fucking mad has happened this game, if what I think is going on is going on.

I'm going to put up a very important wall post later so you can see what has happened from my perspective.

i mean can't you give a summary ? i hate walls

[GameFreak]

the amount of times i've heard the , oh guys i've got an insane theory. For it to utterly fall apart 10 mins after i've wasted my time reading an entire wall.

[RLVG]

Since there's not too much going on, I'll vote on TDL for his weird stuff like witch, doctor, bus, etc...

-vote Thedarkestlight

[Unknown1234]

Where has everyone been? It's like a ghost town

[yzb25]

Hypothesis
1) Paladin received a witch card at the start of the game, explaining his scummy response to pressure on d1. After advocating for a Gamefreak lynch at the end of d1 (despite the fact we were all waiting to see if GF could confirm himself), he witched Gamefreak onto himself to prevent Gamefreak from confirming himself. "Ugh, you'll just claim witched tomorrow. This is way too convenient *hammer*".
2) GF claimed roleblocked on d2. Paladin, seeing that GF had received no witch feedback but had received escort feedback, deduced he was likely escort.
3) So, on n2, Paladin roleblocked TDL, believing he was town. This made sense, as TDL had been lurky and had pushed what looked like a policy lynch on eggy despite decrying policy lynches on d1.
4) On d3, the TDL claim provoked Paladin, genuinely believing he was escort, to say what he said. "Looks like there is a witch somewhere". However, he claimed to roleblock Unknown rather than Gamefreak. This would ping the real escort to crumb to Paladin that they were aware of the contradictory info (but, as Paladin confirmably roleblocked TDL at d2, the escort would know Paladin was only bullshitting about n1 and would still trust them). Of course, we both (supposedly) roleblocked TDL so this will backfire if we are both escort.
5) When GF revealed he was in fact witched, this resulted in Paladin pushing hard to find out "if he had also been escorted". This essentially meant that Paladin's two true targets had been witched on the nights he had visited them, meaning his original rolecard was correct.
6) He is now in an awkward position, lol.
Evidence/Explanation
1) This explains why he advocated a GF vote, despite not scumreading him and the fact that, apart from a few very stubborn GF voters, we had decided to give GF a night to confirm himself. It also explains, if GF is escort, why there was no escort roleblock.
Paladin claimed to have roleblocked Unknown, but an escort Paladin would have likely roleblocked someone he clearly scumread/opposed like GF, Gyrlander or, hell, me.
2) I received the citizen rolecard and said "fuck it" and visited Unknown, because I deemed him a target I wouldn't mind killing if I was vigi and I wouldn't mind saving if I was doctor - he was a null read. I believe I am actually escort and I am the one who roleblocked him.
3) I also decided on visiting TDL, in case I was escort, for reasons I imagine Paladin shared.
4) This is probably the weakest part of the hypothesis, and partially self-centred - when I saw Paladin's post, I made a mental note to write a post crumbing I roleblocked Unknown, and that Paladin roleblocked Gamefreak, so that me and Paladin could prove ourselves to eachother. It's not a rare strat, though. This used to be done pre-kidnapper era on sc2mafia. Nor is this strat above the mad scientist (I was considering doing this myself because there was no consort).
5) ---
6) "OH YEAH GUYS, I FORGOT TO MENTION I'M 100% PROVEN NAOW. THERE'S NO SPACE FOR FAKERS!!!"

Misc.: This would mean there is a good possibility RLVG isn't lunatic - as insane sheriff, he might have checked Sinister Paladin and gotten inno, and then checked inno Gyrlander and gotten sinister, because of his insane-ness. It would mean, given that RLVG is the only one who seems to maybe be sheriff, that the insane sheriff mechanic wouldn't go to waste.

notice
Maybe I am just a citizen who happened to visit all these people at the correct moment, and maybe all these other things just happen to be the case.

But my hypothesis sews together everything I know in a really neat bow. I was toying with it as a theory post at first, but frankly I can't see any other way to make all this work together, from my perspective.

Though it feels unlikely this is the case, it seems less likely that this isn't the case, at this point. I'll be dropping by to take questions you almost definitely have. Go easy on me ;)

-vote ThePaladin

[Unknown1234]

The problem is, ThePaladin didn't witch GF n2 so how did TDL get witched AND roleblocked? GameFreak already said he didn't believe he was escort.

[Unknown1234]

The problem is, ThePaladin didn't witch GF n2 so how did TDL get witched AND roleblocked? GameFreak already said he didn't believe he was escort.

Never mind I misunderstood.

[Unknown1234]

Yzb, ThePaladin claimed to roleblock TDL before TDL claimed he was roleblocked. If you wernt witched and TDL was there is no way he could have known that.

[yzb25]

Yzb, ThePaladin claimed to roleblock TDL before TDL claimed he was roleblocked. If you wernt witched and TDL was there is no way he could have known that.

When Paladin roleblocked TDL, he thought he was escort, because he (thought he had) successfully roleblocked Gamefreak.
Logically, if GF received no witch feedback, but did receive escort feedback, then, unless you're witch--->a role that gives no feedback
You were the one who roleblocked GF

Remember, Paladin assumed GF had told the truth about his feedback, which, due to the first assumption, means it makes sense to believe you're escort.

Either way, he was sure he wasn't witch, because GF (apparently) hadn't received witch feedback.

lol.

[Unknown1234]

ThePaladin roleblocked me n1 and TDL n2.

Also, GF said he ONLY got witch feedback, that he DIDNT get roleblocked.

[ThePaladin]

Hypothesis
1) Paladin received a witch card at the start of the game, explaining his scummy response to pressure on d1. After advocating for a Gamefreak lynch at the end of d1 (despite the fact we were all waiting to see if GF could confirm himself), he witched Gamefreak onto himself to prevent Gamefreak from confirming himself. "Ugh, you'll just claim witched tomorrow. This is way too convenient *hammer*".
2) GF claimed roleblocked on d2. Paladin, seeing that GF had received no witch feedback but had received escort feedback, deduced he was likely escort.
3) So, on n2, Paladin roleblocked TDL, believing he was town. This made sense, as TDL had been lurky and had pushed what looked like a policy lynch on eggy despite decrying policy lynches on d1.
4) On d3, the TDL claim provoked Paladin, genuinely believing he was escort, to say what he said. "Looks like there is a witch somewhere". However, he claimed to roleblock Unknown rather than Gamefreak. This would ping the real escort to crumb to Paladin that they were aware of the contradictory info (but, as Paladin confirmably roleblocked TDL at d2, the escort would know Paladin was only bullshitting about n1 and would still trust them). Of course, we both (supposedly) roleblocked TDL so this will backfire if we are both escort.
5) When GF revealed he was in fact witched, this resulted in Paladin pushing hard to find out "if he had also been escorted". This essentially meant that Paladin's two true targets had been witched on the nights he had visited them, meaning his original rolecard was correct.
6) He is now in an awkward position, lol.
Evidence/Explanation
1) This explains why he advocated a GF vote, despite not scumreading him and the fact that, apart from a few very stubborn GF voters, we had decided to give GF a night to confirm himself. It also explains, if GF is escort, why there was no escort roleblock.
Paladin claimed to have roleblocked Unknown, but an escort Paladin would have likely roleblocked someone he clearly scumread/opposed like GF, Gyrlander or, hell, me.
2) I received the citizen rolecard and said "fuck it" and visited Unknown, because I deemed him a target I wouldn't mind killing if I was vigi and I wouldn't mind saving if I was doctor - he was a null read. I believe I am actually escort and I am the one who roleblocked him.
3) I also decided on visiting TDL, in case I was escort, for reasons I imagine Paladin shared.
4) This is probably the weakest part of the hypothesis, and partially self-centred - when I saw Paladin's post, I made a mental note to write a post crumbing I roleblocked Unknown, and that Paladin roleblocked Gamefreak, so that me and Paladin could prove ourselves to eachother. It's not a rare strat, though. This used to be done pre-kidnapper era on sc2mafia. Nor is this strat above the mad scientist (I was considering doing this myself because there was no consort).
5) ---
6) "OH YEAH GUYS, I FORGOT TO MENTION I'M 100% PROVEN NAOW. THERE'S NO SPACE FOR FAKERS!!!"

Misc.: This would mean there is a good possibility RLVG isn't lunatic - as insane sheriff, he might have checked Sinister Paladin and gotten inno, and then checked inno Gyrlander and gotten sinister, because of his insane-ness. It would mean, given that RLVG is the only one who seems to maybe be sheriff, that the insane sheriff mechanic wouldn't go to waste.

notice
Maybe I am just a citizen who happened to visit all these people at the correct moment, and maybe all these other things just happen to be the case.

But my hypothesis sews together everything I know in a really neat bow. I was toying with it as a theory post at first, but frankly I can't see any other way to make all this work together, from my perspective.

Though it feels unlikely this is the case, it seems less likely that this isn't the case, at this point. I'll be dropping by to take questions you almost definitely have. Go easy on me ;)

-vote ThePaladin

1) I roleblocked Unknown. NOT GAMEFREAK. L2R.
2) I ROLEBLOCKED AND VISITED UNKNOWN NOT GAMEFREAK. I DON'T CARE WHAT HIS FEEDBACK IS IN REFERENCE TO KNOWING MY ROLE.

4)Are you claiming Escort? Did you happen to also visit Unknown n1?

5)No, not even what? I was asking his role to fill in my nice chart I'm making. I didn't visit gamefreak Ever. I visited UNKNOWN on n1.


DID I MENTION THAT I ROLEBLOCKED UNKNOWN not Gamefreak ON N1

[ThePaladin]

Spoiler : WOW I HAVE TO USE THIS AGAIN :

::@yzb25 Learn To Read or Learn to misrep better::

[ThePaladin]

Is it impossible for either Asylum staff to be lunatics [Asylum Director and Asylum Counselor, neither can be a lunatic]?

[ThePaladin]

Current Chart.

[ThePaladin]

Current Chart.

Huh guess my strikethroughs don't copy-paste

Should be fixed now

[ThePaladin]

Should also be AC feedback on n1 for spruance.

Who recieved AC feedback on n2? We had no kill.

[Unknown1234]

Minor note, RLVG claimed AD feedback not TDL.

[Unknown1234]

Should also be AC feedback on n1 for spruance.

Who recieved AC feedback on n2? We had no kill.

Nobody claimed for it I don't think.

[ThePaladin]

Minor note, RLVG claimed AD feedback not TDL.

Put it on wrong person whoops. Must have sawn visit RLVG as the name in peripheral.

[ThePaladin]

Nobody claimed for it I don't think.

That's the weird part.

[ThePaladin]

If you recieved Asylum Counselor Feedback,
Please State so Now.

Spoiler : Asylum Counselor :


You decided to provide some much needed counseling to an inmate last night.



After a long counseling session from the Asylum Staff, you have been diagnosed of being a Lunatic. Your true calling is a XXX.

[ThePaladin]

Think everything is right now.

[ThePaladin]

Based on this

Escort
At night you may roleblock someone, they are prevented from performing any action.
You are not informed of an unsuccessful roleblock.



Can an escort be roleblocked? There is no information saying they an escort is immune.

Looking through the roles, no role appears to explicitly state they cannot be roleblocked. Therefore is it possible to have an unsuccessful roleblock and if so what roles cannot be roleblocked?

Just going to restate so you only have to reply to one post

Can either or both asylum staff[Director and Couselor] be a lunatic?
@deathworlds
@Deathworlds Host

[secondpassing]

SP brought up an interesting point that Taek might not be ML but Cult and Spruance has every reason to comfirm this as ML since he might have been converted.

Which is still based off a read instead of role claims. Which I find very likely due to the number of lunatics, and lunatic claims.

Serial Killer.

SHOCKING

Scary.

[deathworlds]

Is it impossible for either Asylum staff to be lunatics [Asylum Director and Asylum Counselor, neither can be a lunatic]?

As previously mentioned, every combination is possible, all roles can be lunatics that think they are any other role.

[ThePaladin]

As previously mentioned, every combination is possible, all roles can be lunatics that think they are any other role.

Huh tdl guess you were wrong

[secondpassing]

Based on this

Escort
At night you may roleblock someone, they are prevented from performing any action.
You are not informed of an unsuccessful roleblock.



Can either or both asylum staff[Director and Couselor] be a lunatic[/COLOR]]?

What happens in an escort roleblock chain?

Asylum Staff cannot be lunatics.

[secondpassing]

Wait I got it wrong?

[ThePaladin]

What happens in an escort roleblock chain?

Asylum Staff cannot be lunatics.

Breh I've been doing this before you even started making setups.

And yes, everyone. Excluding the Asylum Staff can be Lunatics.

I know...

[deathworlds]

Based on this

Escort
At night you may roleblock someone, they are prevented from performing any action.
You are not informed of an unsuccessful roleblock.



Can an escort be roleblocked? There is no information saying they an escort is immune.

Looking through the roles, no role appears to explicitly state they cannot be roleblocked. Therefore is it possible to have an unsuccessful roleblock and if so what roles cannot be roleblocked?

Just going to restate so you only have to reply to one post

Can either or both asylum staff[Director and Couselor] be a lunatic?
@deathworlds
@Deathworlds Host

Escort can be role blocked if the player that roleblocked the escort submits his action before the targeted escort.

Mass Murderer (if targeting self) Veteran and Witch can be roleblocked, but will have no effect because they come first in OoO.


And yes, both Asylum staff can be lunatics.