Mafia theory - Day/Night duration benefiting factions.
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  1. ISO #1

    Mafia theory - Day/Night duration benefiting factions.

    So the common thought is:
    Longer days benefit town.
    Longer nights benefit scum.


    I do not agree with that statement. I will explain my thoughts on this next weekend. In the meantime, discuss your thoughts on this and explain why that is the common thought on this subject, I'll try to include your arguments in my post next week.

  2. ISO #2

    Re: Mafia theory - Day/Night duration benefiting factions.

    So as I pointed out a long time ago in Hints, Tips and tricks for FMs, we all seem to fit into some kind of category, whether we end up being town or scum doesn't seem to matter when it comes to these play styles.

    The primary playstyles that I keep track of are these:

    -Town Leaders
    -Town supporters
    -Analytical town supporters
    -Manipulators
    -Sheep
    -Lurkers
    -Trolls
    -Monkey Wrenches!

    The length of day and night impact these roles differently, being scum or town aligned doesn't seem to make the biggest difference.



    First lets start off with Day length.

    An evil scum goal for everyday usually goes in this priority:
    Don't get lynched > Don't lynch someone on their team > Don't lynch KPN roles (for the first few days) > Don't lynch evil neutrals > Lynch town > Discredit/prevent confirmation of town roles > Lynch town PRs

    The town goals for everyday usually goes in this priority:
    Do not lynch a town PR > Lynch any non town (friendly neutrals may be lynched) > Lynch any evil role > Lynch Mafia > Lynch specific key evil roles > Lynch evil KPN roles

    Due to our personal schedules, longer days tend to encourage discussion, sometimes information that identifies a player further down the priority list requires immediate action. Sometimes replying to a post that was made hours ago by someone on a different schedule can help in that regard. While it has been noted that because most of us live in different time zones and are not all awake at the same time, this can also tend to stall important discussion or end the day with a no-lynch because people not wanting to end day "early" and not be present at the end to add their important vote.


    -Town Leaders
    Being the person who generally directs the focus of the discussion, he needs to have a strong day presence... and unfortunately, just like the rest of us, he is not immune to real life responsibilities that prevent him from accomplishing this task at 100%. Although the town leaders personal schedule does have a major impact, the length of the day also has a bearing on his task at hand. Since longer days usually gives more opinions and information.. it makes his job that much harder to unite the town on a single target. Longer days also encourage multiple discussions to run at the same time, holding onto the town leader position becomes that much harder when everyone starts talking about everything.

    -Town supporters
    Simply put, the more posts there are, the more they can reply to. Of course, they need to find the time to do so, so longer days benefit them as well.

    -Analytical town supporters
    For analytical players, day length is a two edge sword. Analyzers need time to process what was said and to cross check stories with previous days and when days get too many posts, we get information overloaded and can no longer keep up with the discussion so they end up being regular town supporters. However, the more topics discussed during a previous day, the more an analyzer will provide input.

    -Manipulators
    These people really shine during longer days since lots of information ends up being buried away in thousands of posts.. and in general, people are too lazy to go look for it. Making manipulators job easier to control the thought process.

    -Sheep
    Shorter days benefit sheep since they are mostly too lazy to read the entire day... so the less reading needed, the better. Sheep can be strongly influenced by manipulators and they mistake them as the town leaders.... rule of thumb is, a strong train based on a strong argument with the least amount of manipulation = a better informed sheep

    -Lurkers
    The longer the day is, the more obvious it is that someone is lurking... soo, lurkers love the short days.

    -Trolls
    They don't care how long the day is... they love to spam non important information that doesn't contribute anything to the game... it really comes down to the ratio of spam to important posts. More spam = more posts that town has to filter out before finding the golden nugget important posts = more time needed to filter.... but then we come back to the vicious circle ... since more time = more time for trolls to post more!

    -Monkey Wrenches!
    Also known as extreme gambit players - day length is also a two edge sword. While they need long days to get a good read, they also need short days for no one to uncover the truth in their gambits.

    -Alignments:
    While most PRs use information gained from the day to choose their night targets, the same is also true for scum.. and unfortunately, I'd have to say that scum gain the biggest advantage here... mostly because we divulge way too much information during the day leaving us with people who claimed roles (but not yet confirmed), hinted at roles, or have strong town presence or town credibility. Of course this leaves town in the dark who they need to trust while Scum pick off some important town people before town protectives get to them.

    -Other general thoughts: while most people tend to think that longer days usually benefits town, that is mostly because of the number of skilled scum manipulators and gambitting scums we have on this site. I have only seen 1 scum team in major FMs take advantage and control the day chatter and this was in FM9. If scums took control of day instead of trying to just lay low and hope for the best, I'm sure day length would be pretty even between the two factions.


    Now the more interesting Night length.

    Night phase is an important time in major FMs. One of the most overlooked reason is that the players are human... and as such we do require sleep! And while for the majority of players this isn't much of a problem, for the dedicated players such as myself, I find it very hard to log off or leave my phone down during the day phase knowing that anyone can come around and derail a lynch train that I'm pushing or find some way to confuse town while I'm not around to argue with them.

    -Town Leaders, Town supporters, Sheep, Lurkers and Trolls
    Unless the players are a PR, these people don't usually take advantage of the night phase other than to rest and wait for the next day to start.

    -Analytical town supporters
    This is their time to shine, the longer the night is, the more they have time to delve deep into analyzing posts. Usually forming questions for specific players for the next day. They become the main support for town leaders in the future by finding inconsistencies in other players that usually go unnoticed due to being buried in the flood of posts.
    This is also true for scum analyzers - they can usually find key roles to target at night or find who is the best person to form a mislynch on. Re-reading previous days no matter what alignment you are yields huge benefits.. sadly, very few people actually do this anymore.. During FM21, I was online during the night re-reading some days, and I only saw 1 other user at most doing the same. It appears the generation of the Analyzers is coming to an end on this site.

    -Manipulators and Monkey Wrenches!
    While not as strong during the night, this is mostly the planning phase of what they want to accomplish in the next day. Having a plan is always better than improvising.

    -Scum faction night chats
    This is probably one of the few things people think of when considering the length of the night. They picture in their mind that scum are extremely smart and devious and make plans for everything.... this isn't the case. And while some scum teams have excelled in their night chats by making good plans and lots of discussion like in FM9 and FM12 (Nighthawks), in general, the night chats are mostly dead or filled with non helpful information.

    -Town faction night chats
    Personally, I would see this having a bigger benefit to longer night than scum night chats... mostly because its not just talking about who to target at night. But it can be a major contribution to the town. Jailor chats specifically gain huge benefits for long nights where both the jailor and jailee are active.... and when there is no kidnapper in the rolecards. An organized inform town is the deadliest of towns. FMX had this kind of town with the combination of jailors, students and masons.



    Yayaps Conclusion:
    Day length benefits both town and scum depending on playstyle.
    Night length benefits town more than scum due to more time to scumhunt without interference and get ideas in order for the next day... to which interrogations may begin.
    Last edited by Yayap; May 7th, 2014 at 01:41 PM.

  3. ISO #3

    Re: Mafia theory - Day/Night duration benefiting factions.

    I think it is obvious.

    Even if setup is pro-town, a shorter day light time and trail don't stop day will effectively make town stupid.

    In a shorter day, spammers, gamethrowers and trolls also gain a boost because they waste a bigger portion of a shorter day time.
    When we talked about pubs, we are talking about us.
    When they talked about pubs, they exclude themselves.
    They say only bad players want to modify citizens, and they do not satisfy bad players.
    Are we bad players? We include bad players, but that is just a part of us.
    ---They put veteran, mayor, allowed jester to visit for nothing, and they regretted and say those things are brainless.

  4. ISO #4

    Re: Mafia theory - Day/Night duration benefiting factions.

    Longer day benefits anyone who has a lot to say.
    Longer night benefits anyone who has a lot to say.

    It's just commonly assumed that Town talk more during the day and Scums during the night. So for the most part I agree with the statements.
    Spoiler : Orpz FM History :

    FM17 - Won, FM18 - Won, FM19 - Won ,FM20 - Loss, FM21 - Won, MVP, FM22 - Host Canceled, FM23 - Won, FM24 - Hosted, FM25 - Won, FM26 - Loss

  5. ISO #5

    Re: Mafia theory - Day/Night duration benefiting factions.

    Well, I wouldnt say longer nights benefit scum really, in 80% of my games as scum, they say maybe 3 sentences in night chat, or need 10 secs to share the clues, a longer night, just makes the game longer in my opinion.
    This is the Revolution. The glorious Evolution. There is no light, without shadow.

  6. ISO #6

    Re: Mafia theory - Day/Night duration benefiting factions.

    While I understand the logic behind this common held belief.... I did not win MVP of FM 14 because I was quiet.

    The longer the day is, the more people can talk and derive clues and information. The scum should twist this information and the conclusions the town draws from it. However, people on this site usually don't take advantage of the day when they are scum. They usually try and hide under the radar or appear active without adding much.

    The most power scum players are those who can take the mantle of town leader or (to use your term, Yayap) town manipulator. Its sad that we don't see many scum players do this, usually only two or three per game.

    Night time is a joke unless you can talk with a group of people who are also smart and can plan a few days ahead. Otherwise, its a resting period.

    This is also why I don't play FM's unless I have a lot of time.
    Last edited by AppleyNO; April 27th, 2014 at 11:50 AM. Reason: belief*
    Quote Originally Posted by Elixir View Post
    You should be priviledged to experience bestmas.

    "waah the screen is shaking, waah my delicate eyes".

    Fuck sake.

  7. ISO #7

    Re: Mafia theory - Day/Night duration benefiting factions.

    For most casual players who don't keep a copy of excel, they need time to check log and think.

    1 minute day is often too short for them. yet, 2 minute is often too long.

    It is often easy to make a mind blow talk and freeze everyone's mind in 15 seconds, so effectively delay the day.

    For a 2+ minutes day, scums really need town to be stupid and blind to win.

    For jailor, who often has 3 executions anyway, night length doesn't matter.

    For mason, night talk is usually unproductive among casual players.

    But for mafia, who are better organized and driven by higher self interesting somewhat have a better time at night.


    As to Forum mafia, it is the same.

    Read log, analyzing and active discussion cost time.

    If the players already are playing along some plan,

    the day will be more productive.

    Then the time is sufficient if everyone participated in that period of time.

    Once the length of time past that point, the rest are garbage time.
    Last edited by louiswill; April 27th, 2014 at 03:07 PM.
    When we talked about pubs, we are talking about us.
    When they talked about pubs, they exclude themselves.
    They say only bad players want to modify citizens, and they do not satisfy bad players.
    Are we bad players? We include bad players, but that is just a part of us.
    ---They put veteran, mayor, allowed jester to visit for nothing, and they regretted and say those things are brainless.

  8. ISO #8

    Re: Mafia theory - Day/Night duration benefiting factions.

    Scince we are tlaking in fourm aspect i also disagree on longer day benefits town.

    A longer day does mean more discussion, however on the flip side it draws the day out and there comes a point where its no longer all that helpful and its just lurk.

    Another thing is that it can make town apathetic as the days drag on making it easier for scums to take control.

    Mafia has day-chat, the entire point of longer days to help town kinda becomes moot b/c mafia can still communicate with each ohter in private (m-fm 20)

    As for night, I could argue both side really. I think this one is more dependent on player/team/actions

    for a single scum: do night action and wait
    for a scum team: its kinda more just "dump thoughts into night chat and go" b/c it is hard to sometimes sync up with plaers in diffrent time zones. however this gets nulled if there is a daychat

    overall i think longer nights dont exaclt benifit scums. you could argue that if masons or a town night chat exist (arcitect), it helps them equaly

    the only benifit i find form extended night is the timeframe for sening in night actions
    Last edited by ika; April 30th, 2014 at 03:02 PM. Reason: more info

  9. ISO #9

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  11. ISO #11

    Re: Mafia theory - Day/Night duration benefiting factions.

    Both longer Days and longer nights benefit Town.

    Those that have a lot to say (both Town and Mafia) gain the advantage when there are long day durations, being able to justify their opinions and gain the trust of the game, while lurkers become more and more obvious. This tends to lead to more of a Town buff though.

    HOWEVER, those that heavily examine each and every post and with great observational skills (both Town and Mafia) gain the advantage when there are long night durations (long day too, not as much though). Night generally has little activity and allows the user to focus on past conversations to scum/town hunt with time to spare and not having to worry about additional conversations being added to the game. This gives the Mafia more time to talk on their own, but there normally isn't too much to discuss so it doesn't give that much of an advantage.

    (we generally fall under neither of those categories)

    Apo would say that it affects the type of player more than the type of faction (TOWN/MAFIA)
    Last edited by Apocist; January 28th, 2019 at 07:55 PM.

    Quote Originally Posted by SuperJack View Post
    Look what you have caused. Seems like everyone who posted is now confused about their own gender and are venting their frustration into opinions.

  12. ISO #12

    Re: Mafia theory - Day/Night duration benefiting factions.

    oh i got a topic that could be used here that i want to hear thoughts on:

    opinion on night-less, where everyone sends actions and "night" goes in a spawn of 5 mins where host locks and resolves all actions

    favored more for town or scums?

    Also, what type of player do you think benifits more on longer/shorter phases (analiticals, trolls, sheeps, ect)

    @apo: so you would agrue that a longer day/night is more dependent to an indivdual player and not a faction as a whole? I could see that.
    Last edited by ika; May 1st, 2014 at 09:31 PM.

  13. ISO #13

  14. ISO #14

    Re: Mafia theory - Day/Night duration benefiting factions.

    Quote Originally Posted by Yayap View Post
    Yay! Apocist nailed my primary argument. More details coming this weekend.
    Yay! Apo is of use! Honestly though, as Mafia themself, those long boring nights didn't really help us determine much of anything. If anything, Apo always relied on their skilled teammates. Even if we do be through, he just over thinks things and skips past the important facts (see apo's bad gambit in FMXX, deciding if we should kill)
    Last edited by Apocist; January 28th, 2019 at 07:56 PM.

    Quote Originally Posted by SuperJack View Post
    Look what you have caused. Seems like everyone who posted is now confused about their own gender and are venting their frustration into opinions.

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  18. ISO #18

    Re: Mafia theory - Day/Night duration benefiting factions.

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Support!
    Actually gotta take that back... Neither longer days or night benefit town if they have low analysis skills

    Quote Originally Posted by SuperJack View Post
    Look what you have caused. Seems like everyone who posted is now confused about their own gender and are venting their frustration into opinions.

  19. ISO #19

    Re: Mafia theory - Day/Night duration benefiting factions.

    Quote Originally Posted by Apocist View Post
    Actually gotta take that back... Neither longer days or night benefit town if they have low analysis skills
    We normally assume that town and scum have similar skill levels.

    -Town Leaders
    Being the person who generally directs the focus of the discussion, he needs to have a strong day presence... and unfortunately, just like the rest of us, he is not immune to real life responsibilities that prevent him from accomplishing this task at 100%. Although the town leaders personal schedule does have a major impact, the length of the day also has a bearing on his task at hand. Since longer days usually gives more opinions and information.. it makes his job that much harder to unite the town on a single target. Longer days also encourage multiple discussions to run at the same time, holding onto the town leader position becomes that much harder when everyone starts talking about everything.
    Town leaders: Someone who is confirmed town and/or has strong opinions.

    I do not think it is the role of town leader to "unite town on a single target". Rather it's to "make a strong case on a particular target". Longer days will result in multiple cases on multiple targets, with some cases stronger than others. Town leaders with weaker cases will naturally lose their leadership position or strike deals with stronger town leaders (eg. lynch X today get Y tomorrow).

    Keeping the towniest town leader position during the day is not of such great importance unless you possess any incriminatory results. It more for keeping yourself alive at night; we often see less towny town leaders getting killed.

  20. ISO #20

    Re: Mafia theory - Day/Night duration benefiting factions.

    -Town supporters
    Simply put, the more posts there are, the more they can reply to. Of course, they need to find the time to do so, so longer days benefit them as well.

    -Analytical town supporters
    For analytical players, day length is a two edge sword. Analyzers need time to process what was said and to cross check stories with previous days and when days get too many posts, we get information overloaded and can no longer keep up with the discussion so they end up being regular town supporters. However, the more topics discussed during a previous day, the more an analyzer will provide input.
    I guess any difference between the two are solely down to playstyle...

    Town supporters: Demoted town leaders or players who analyze information without actually making a case on anyone.

    As an analytical player, I don't find day length to be a double edge sword at all. Easier to understand someone's intention if there are more posts. Ignore filler posts used for crumbing, softclaiming and WIFOMing.

  21. ISO #21

    Re: Mafia theory - Day/Night duration benefiting factions.

    -Scum faction night chats
    This is probably one of the few things people think of when considering the length of the night. They picture in their mind that scum are extremely smart and devious and make plans for everything.... this isn't the case. And while some scum teams have excelled in their night chats by making good plans and lots of discussion like in FM9 and FM12 (Nighthawks), in general, the night chats are mostly dead or filled with non helpful information.
    Amateur scums shouldn't be used for making the assumption that night chats are not particularly useful for scums.

    It's good not to underestimate the enemy. Town should always prepare the necessary countermeasures. Not asking town to be paranoid though.

  22. ISO #22

    Re: Mafia theory - Day/Night duration benefiting factions.

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Amateur scums shouldn't be used for making the assumption that night chats are not particularly useful for scums.

    It's good not to underestimate the enemy. Town should always prepare the necessary countermeasures. Not asking town to be paranoid though.
    Scum chat is useful if used correctly, I'm just saying that town night chats get more benefits from longer nights than scum night chat with equally skilled players.

 

 

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