S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER - - Page 10
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  1. ISO #451

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    @Noz_Bugz Your role, please. @Distorted , you too. I have the feeling Noz is Citizen playing trash
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

  2. ISO #452

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    So. I claim Union Leader. I attempted to convert Blinkskater to a Follower because it would have allowed to get him confirmed. I was roleblocked, so I did NOT waste a convert on him! So now, if we go with the two TPR claims we got, it means the RBer was a WITCH! Unless Ozy lies (or me). I am being quite busy IRL, so I might leave you without warning sometimes. Don't go say I'm passive, not scumhunting and scummy because of that.

    Now, let's discuss the lynch question for today. Yes or no? Who? When? Why? Once everyone will have claimed a role (maybe out of nozbugz because he's never online) let's start discussing that!
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

  3. ISO #453

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    Btw I don't think Ozy and Magoroth are scum together. I'd like a grid of who has had:

    the most interactions
    the less interactions
    the strangest interactions (can be same as most or less)
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

  4. ISO #454

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    I don't think pressure voting an AFK is useful
    -unvote
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

  5. ISO #455

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    Oh well, now that I have time I'm alone... yay. Going to work on a list of reads and maybe iso Magoroth, OzyWho or Distorted... if I have time. Don't scream at me if I don't.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

  6. ISO #456

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -



    Soviet_Love, I think it's rather obvious why I townread him lol. Extremely pro-town, provides reasonings and thoughts, makes the game move. Highest town read, 98% town.

    Distorted, for being manipulated on D1. I townread him more for his interactions than for his posts.

    OzyWho, his claim gives him a temp free pass.


    :neutral
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

  7. ISO #457

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    Oops... wish I could edit posts... Let's remake that list of reads lol
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

  8. ISO #458

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -



    Soviet_Love, I think it's rather obvious why I townread him lol. Extremely pro-town, provides reasonings and thoughts, makes the game move. Highest town read, 98% town.

    Distorted, for being manipulated on D1. I townread him more for his interactions than for his posts.

    OzyWho, because his claim gives him a temp free pass, and it fits with the post #4 slip. It doesn't confirm him in any way though, and I'm having him as a 60/40 town lean.


    Noz_Bugz, as I said I feel like he's the AFK citizen not paying attention at all. It could also be a strategy to not get lynched... Which is why I'll put him in the neutral category, 49/51 because of the "shitty predictions" post that could be an indication for a scum partner.


    Magoroth, quite unsure about that guy. He gives me uneasy vibes, even if Ozy said he was NS... Ozy could be lying, and Magoroth could be GF. 45/55, slight scum lean.


    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

  9. ISO #459

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    WAIT:

    I need help resolving move orders.

    If (1) escort blocks Marshmallow Marshall
    (2) Marshmallow Marshall as mason leader visits blink
    (3) mass murderer visited blink
    Then does the mass murderer kill Marshmallow Marshall? Or does the escort block mean that wouldn't happen?

    This is important, because if this set of moves makes mason leader visit blink but fail, then the simply act of visiting blink would have exposed him to the mass murderer and that would kill him.

    TL;DR If MM visits blink, and mass murderer visits blink, then MM would be death. This would mean we have a confirmed godfather witch.

  10. ISO #460

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    Quote Originally Posted by Soviet_Love View Post
    WAIT:

    I need help resolving move orders.

    If (1) escort blocks Marshmallow Marshall
    (2) Marshmallow Marshall as mason leader visits blink
    (3) mass murderer visited blink
    Then does the mass murderer kill Marshmallow Marshall? Or does the escort block mean that wouldn't happen?

    This is important, because if this set of moves makes mason leader visit blink but fail, then the simply act of visiting blink would have exposed him to the mass murderer and that would kill him.

    TL;DR If MM visits blink, and mass murderer visits blink, then MM would be death. This would mean we have a confirmed godfather witch.
    Actually, I think the escort/consort would mean that MM didn't visit blink. That would mean he wouldn't be exposed to a possible mass murderer. So we still do not know if we are facing a godfather or a mass murderer.

  11. ISO #461

  12. ISO #462

  13. ISO #463

  14. ISO #464

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    Just started a mod game. Go check the OoO.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

  15. ISO #465

  16. ISO #466

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    Hello and welcome to the OoO of the game! OoO means Order of Operations, and is not an emote. OzyWho, don't say I didn't explain it this time or I beat your head with a shovel after the game...

    Day End Actions
    A. Jailkeeper Jails
    B. Earthbinder Binds

    Night End Actions
    1. Misdirection Witch misdirects
    2. Cyromage Freezes
    3. Visionary/Sheriff investigations
    4. Union Conversion
    5. Challenger Protection
    6. Anti-Mage and Jailkeeper kills
    7. All witch kills
    8. Pyromancer Mark
    9. Silencer Silences
    10. Field Surgeon Heals
    11. Detective Investigates

    Escort blocking means that I don't visit. Aka you can't use it to prove there is or is not a MM in the game.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

  17. ISO #467

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    Quote Originally Posted by Soviet_Love View Post
    Also - how do I see the postcount here?
    Good question....
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

  18. ISO #468

  19. ISO #469

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    How do you do that?
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

  20. ISO #470

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    Nice, noz has less posts than host, and people call me inactive when I have more than 1/4 posts of the thread. Best game.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

  21. ISO #471

  22. ISO #472
    Ganelon
    Guest

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    The likelihood that there are two underectable Witches is lower than the probability that there are 2 killing roles (about 2-4% if memory serves), so at least one of the Witches is detectable. The likelihood that Ozy had the misfortune of checking the undetectable Rational Arcanist is 20%; the likelihood I am a town role is 80%.

  23. ISO #473
    Ganelon
    Guest

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    The likelihood I posted about the two killing roles is numerically wrong; it is 9%.

  24. ISO #474

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    I see not much has happened in the last ~10 hours.
    I guess I will say where I stand with things since I see nothing else to talk yet.

    @Magoroth
    Considering everything being random: 40% chance I hit a scum and 25% of that 40% that the scum was GF. Additional 2.2% chanced that I was witched. It's only 12.2% chance that Mag is a scum.
    I am not going to complicate my life on a 12.2% chance. Mag stays confirmed townie in my eyes.
    However, Mag is not very helpful for town in comparison to Soviet or Distorted.

    @Soviet_Love
    If Soviet is a scum - he deserves this win. I am not complicating things on the off chance that Soviet might be a scum.I don't think anyone could possibly think that he is not a townie.

    If anyone besides Mag and Soviet claims citizen - I vote him up.


    @Noz_Bugz
    If this was SC2Maf and he was a townie: I would consider his playstyle (Not even claiming when so close to being lynched) a gamethrow. Which is why I have this idea, that perhaps the host would have replaced him if he was a townie?

    @Marshmallow Marshall and @Distorted
    Well, Distorted has definitely posted more useful information and ideas. However, him not claiming 12 hours ago when he was here after my post - that makes him a little bit suspicious. He mentioned he has a bbq, but if he had time to post then he had time to claim.
    MM - I don’t think he has posted much in the way of useful information or ideas for town, while having the most posts of all. He helps players and posts some general questions that town needs to think about. But to me - that’s not enough to not be suspicious. Distorted and Soviet are trying to move town forward, at least I can FEEL their involvement. Can’t say the same about MM.
    ---
    Should we lynch today?
    I think that our best play is to abstain again, however - I can’t see much reason not to lynch Noz.
    We need 4 votes to lynch and as active as we are - I honestly do think we might not get those 4 votes if we decided to lynch.

    When we lynch?
    In 20 hours.

    Whom we lynch?
    Noz or MM.

    Judge discussion? Nah - no Judge yet so no Judge ever.
    Would no kill Night 2 prove that the killer was MM and therefore Mag is confirmed as not GF? Yes, because if we lynch evil today and no kill at night, we would not be at MyLo, which is bad for Scums.

    Don’t know what else to say.
    Hurry up people. Start to claim roles! Prolonging it only makes you more suspicious.

  25. ISO #475

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    Would no kill Night 2 prove that the killer was MM and therefore Mag is confirmed as not GF? Yes, because if we lynch evil today and no kill at night, we would not be at MyLo, which is bad for Scums.
    MM in this context was meant to mean MassMurderer...

  26. ISO #476

  27. ISO #477

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    ahh just caught up. I'm a citizen. Was thinking but didn't get to this post D1 a judge if the scum had one would call to force a misslynch on me. (I may or may not have been playing board games last night)
    "I don't take advice from people less successful than me"
    ~Kanye West

  28. ISO #478
    Ganelon
    Guest

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    Regarding a possible Judge: the Judge may, like its counterpart in the mod, call court. However, he does NOT get any extra votes. There’s 4 townies and two witches; if I were a Judge in this setup, I would either use my ability on D1 or on D3- on MyLo.

  29. ISO #479

  30. ISO #480

  31. ISO #481

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    Before day ends, I would be in favor of lynching either Magoroth or Noz_Bugz. They both have been my scummiest, and given that they both claimed citizen I know that one of them must be scum.

    Magaroth has been (supposedly) invested by Ozy and come up not suspicious.
    Noz_Bugz has been afk like all game.

    I also have a hunch our killing role is godfather, so they would come up as not suspicious to an invest. I don't have a definite lead on that, but just a hunch. If it's a mass murderer we would know tonight because there wouldn't be a kill - but I don't think I want to wait long enough to find out.

  32. ISO #482

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    @Gyrlander when you say that we know who died, but not how, does that apply to deaths by Arson as well? In the past, games I've been in where Arson wins (see: last game with blink) the host writes something about how people died in flames or some flavor text to say it's arson.

    (Asking because if it's an arson and a mass murderer, then mass murderer killed night 1 while arson doused, and night 2 mass murderer couldn't kill but arson could conceivably ignite).

  33. ISO #483

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    Quote Originally Posted by Soviet_Love View Post
    @Gyrlander when you say that we know who died, but not how, does that apply to deaths by Arson as well? In the past, games I've been in where Arson wins (see: last game with blink) the host writes something about how people died in flames or some flavor text to say it's arson.

    (Asking because if it's an arson and a mass murderer, then mass murderer killed night 1 while arson doused, and night 2 mass murderer couldn't kill but arson could conceivably ignite).
    @Gyrlander when you say that we know who died, but not how, does that apply to deaths by Arson as well? In the past, games I've been in where Arson wins (see: last game with blink) the host writes something about how people died in flames or some flavor text to say it's arson.

    I forgot to do greentext.

  34. ISO #484

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    One thing I like about Magoroth's claim is that he tries to argue for what town should do, giving his list of reads, and has support from Ozy. Although I don't know if I fully trust it because I have a hunch there's a godfather amongst us, I like that there is support.

    I do not thing Noz_Bugz has contributed much of anything to move this game forward, take the spotlight away from town power roles, or otherwise indicate that he is a town and wants to work with the town. For those reasons, Noz_Bugz continues to be my primary suspect although I am torn between the two.

  35. ISO #485

  36. ISO #486
    Ganelon
    Guest

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    I find something very fishy. If Marshmallow is Scum, then who is the real second TPR?

  37. ISO #487
    Ganelon
    Guest

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    Another thing: ifthere is a Mass Murderer, we should lynch the other Witch so that a MM attack will be postponed till N3.

  38. ISO #488

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    Quote Originally Posted by Magoroth View Post
    I find something very fishy. If Marshmallow is Scum, then who is the real second TPR?
    Yeah, we need @Distorted to claim. If you are a TPR and don't want to reveal your role, that's ok. Just tell us if you claim TPR or citizen. It is important for town. More important than protecting your special TPR role.

  39. ISO #489

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    Quote Originally Posted by Soviet_Love View Post
    I also have a hunch our killing role is godfather, so they would come up as not suspicious to an invest. I don't have a definite lead on that, but just a hunch. If it's a mass murderer we would know tonight because there wouldn't be a kill - but I don't think I want to wait long enough to find out.
    You are forgetting about Escort possibility.
    Quote Originally Posted by Magoroth View Post
    I find something very fishy. If Marshmallow is Scum, then who is the real second TPR?
    Assuming MM didn't lie about being role blocked - we can assume that Distorted is either Escort or Consort.

  40. ISO #490

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    Quote Originally Posted by Soviet_Love View Post
    Before day ends, I would be in favor of lynching either Magoroth or Noz_Bugz.
    I find it curious that Mag is your #2 suspect given how rational you are.
    As I see it - 12.2% chance that Mag is evil
    40% (2 out of 5) that I checked a Scum.
    1 in 4 possibility that that scum was GF.
    +2.2%, which you calculated, that I was witched.
    12.2%

  41. ISO #491

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    You are forgetting about Escort possibility.

    Assuming MM didn't lie about being role blocked - we can assume that Distorted is either Escort or Consort.
    Good point, if we have a good-guy escort we could block it. So far, two people have claimed TPR and neither claimed escort so I have a feeling that there is a Consort. Also, I'm not assming distorted is either - Ozy or MM may have lied about their TPR role. Hell, even Magaroth or Noz might be the consort - we can't have 3 citizens.

  42. ISO #492

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    I find it curious that Mag is your #2 suspect given how rational you are.
    As I see it - 12.2% chance that Mag is evil
    40% (2 out of 5) that I checked a Scum.
    1 in 4 possibility that that scum was GF.
    +2.2%, which you calculated, that I was witched.
    12.2%
    Your math with the 12.2% doesn't make sense. Either Noz, Magoroth, or I are a scum. It's a fact. We can't have that many citizens. Therefore we should focus our suspicions here.

    Moreover, I get that you got not suspicious and this is a big sign. But if he is godfather, he would be not suspicious. I think we have 1 godfather scum, and 1 consort. That is my biggest suspicion at the moment. And so I think either Noz or Magoroth are a godfather/consort. One is probably clean and one isn't. I don't quite know how to c alculate it, but it isn't pure chance anymore like it used to be (the 2.2%) - we know some roles now. I'm saying even if you checked him, he might be godfather that could skew your results.

    I think it's evidence for his innocence, but I'm not convinced by it.

  43. ISO #493
    Ganelon
    Guest

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    Right. Speaking for myself, and from my own perspective, only one of you is telling the truth - Soviet or Noz. The other one is lying.

  44. ISO #494

  45. ISO #495

  46. ISO #496
    Ganelon
    Guest

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    @Gyrlander , are we allowed to check other games in which players who were present in this game participated? You know, to learn their playstyle and things like that?

  47. ISO #497

  48. ISO #498

  49. ISO #499
    Ganelon
    Guest

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    @OzyWho : get your vote off Noz, for now, please. We don’t want to lynch anyone just yet. We have several hours ahead of us, no need to lynch just yet.

  50. ISO #500

    Re: S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

    @Soviet_Love , if we happen to lynch a mass murderer today - can the other witch kill on Night2? (since he wasn't the one that killed last night)
    If so, is it worth considering me not checking anyone at night so 2 townies don’t die?


    @Magoroth , no. And for the record - you will become my prime suspect if Distorted claims citizen.

 

 

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