S-FM 196: QT 3.14

[MattZed]

Town bloc of me Banana and Matt wins the game.
GG and Calix can call the game now.

Setting aside the other problems I have with this, you can't 3-person town bloc D1 because it fails if we lynch scum D1 and someone from the bloc gets shot. Town Bloc is something to figure out D2, not D1.

[Firebringer]

Setting aside the other problems I have with this, you can't 3-person town bloc D1 because it fails if we lynch scum D1 and someone from the bloc gets shot. Town Bloc is something to figure out D2, not D1.

Ummm how does it fail if scum shoot one of the players if we lynch scum?
If anything that tells you that scum likely isn't in that town bloc.

And you only need 2 votes to lynch 1 scum in LYLO.

I don't get your point here.

[Firebringer]

If you get 3 strong town together and decide to lynch only outside of that block, and everyone in that block is town.

Town can't lose, no matter what in this game.
Scum shoots one? Welp only need the two for vote control = Still win.

[MattZed]

Ummm how does it fail if scum shoot one of the players if we lynch scum?
If anything that tells you that scum likely isn't in that town bloc.

And you only need 2 votes to lynch 1 scum in LYLO.

I don't get your point here.

7 people alive. With a 3 person scum bloc, it can happen as such:
D1: Lynch scum
N1: Last scum shoots one member of the bloc
D2: Lynch outside bloc, happens to be mislynch
N2: Scum shoots inside the bloc again
D3: Mislynch the last non-block town, scum wins.

Thus, a D1 bloc isn't even foolproof if you find 3 town.

But I simply don't want to make a bloc right now. In D1 we need to get opinions out there to establish a common body of knowledge we can all appeal to in later days. Interrogating people is going to be much, much, harder D2 and beyond.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

If you get 3 strong town together and decide to lynch only outside of that block, and everyone in that block is town.

Town can't lose, no matter what in this game.
Scum shoots one? Welp only need the two for vote control = Still win.

You told me you don't trust to get both scum day 1 which is why you were against my lynch plan. Your three man block would never work if you don't even think you can trust your reads completely this early.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

7 people alive. With a 3 person scum bloc, it can happen as such:
D1: Lynch scum
N1: Last scum shoots one member of the bloc
D2: Lynch outside bloc, happens to be mislynch
N2: Scum shoots inside the bloc again
D3: Mislynch the last non-block town, scum wins.

Thus, a D1 bloc isn't even foolproof if you find 3 town.

But I simply don't want to make a bloc right now. In D1 we need to get opinions out there to establish a common body of knowledge we can all appeal to in later days. Interrogating people is going to be much, much, harder D2 and beyond.

its one kill TOTAL.

[Firebringer]

7 people alive. With a 3 person scum bloc, it can happen as such:
D1: Lynch scum
N1: Last scum shoots one member of the bloc
D2: Lynch outside bloc, happens to be mislynch
N2: Scum shoots inside the bloc again
D3: Mislynch the last non-block town, scum wins.

Thus, a D1 bloc isn't even foolproof if you find 3 town.

But I simply don't want to make a bloc right now. In D1 we need to get opinions out there to establish a common body of knowledge we can all appeal to in later days. Interrogating people is going to be much, much, harder D2 and beyond.

Matt....you only get 1 shot if scum get lynched.
You can't shoot every night.

Are you dumb telling me right now?

YOU REVIEWED THIS SETUP!

[Firebringer]

Okay, someone needs to take matts reviewing game badge away from him.

He doesn't even clearly understand the setup.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

Matt....you only get 1 shot if scum get lynched.
You can't shoot every night.

Are you dumb telling me right now?

YOU REVIEWED THIS SETUP!

That is such a unique issue, and easy to miss. I don't believe it is worth harping over.

[Firebringer]

- If one of the Mafia is lynched before a LYLO scenario, the surviving Mafia gains a night kill (1 use)

Here you go guys.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

Here you go guys.

Sorry I didn't get the message from our combined four posts, could you clarify how many kills the mafia could have again?

[Firebringer]

Sorry I didn't get the message from our combined four posts, could you clarify how many kills the mafia could have again?

25.

[Firebringer]

You told me you don't trust to get both scum day 1 which is why you were against my lynch plan. Your three man block would never work if you don't even think you can trust your reads completely this early.

I trust town reads more than I trust my scumreads because town has higher chance of actually being town, and my reads with town are more accurate usually.

[Kovath]

25.

Considering your less than stellar knowledge of the World of Music setup... =P

We've cleared up the point, let's move on. Town blocs would be an 'ideal' solution but of course game-losing if a scum gets in. So it just depends if you're willing to stake the game on it.

[MattZed]

LOL I'm going to get fired.

Not gonna lie, I hit a point in reviewing this setup where I went "screw it, Calix isn't compromising on this being highly experimental and this isn't similar to anything else, so I have no idea how to balance it. Let's just leave it in and see where it goes. The masochists can sign if they want."

[Firebringer]

LOL I'm going to get fired.

Not gonna lie, I hit a point in reviewing this setup where I went "screw it, Calix isn't compromising on this being highly experimental and this isn't similar to anything else, so I have no idea how to balance it. Let's just leave it in and see where it goes. The masochists can sign if they want."

Honeslty you are probably even more likely town for not knowing that fact about the scum kill, because if you were scum and thought that you had extra kills if scum died, you would 100% probably throw yourself in to get lynched to give your teammate permanent night kills.

So you gained even more town points from me.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

I trust town reads more than I trust my scumreads because town has higher chance of actually being town, and my reads with town are more accurate usually.

But in my lynch plan your top 2(possibly 3) town reads were the ones that would never get lynched. So you in a different way proposing THE SAME plan I am that you scum read me for. Who was in your town circle? Kovath, banana, mattzed. Who were my no lynches? Kovath, banana, Mattzed or yourself to replace me.

[Kovath]

LOL I'm going to get fired.

Not gonna lie, I hit a point in reviewing this setup where I went "screw it, Calix isn't compromising on this being highly experimental and this isn't similar to anything else, so I have no idea how to balance it. Let's just leave it in and see where it goes. The masochists can sign if they want."

Matt-sochist.

(On an unrelated note, can someone tell me how to do that ton of quotes in a single post like an ISO? Maybe I'm dumb for having not figured it out. Or just lazy.)

[BananaCucho]

If you get 3 strong town together and decide to lynch only outside of that block, and everyone in that block is town.

Town can't lose, no matter what in this game.
Scum shoots one? Welp only need the two for vote control = Still win.

Problem is day 1 reads are wrong too often.

[Firebringer]

But in my lynch plan your top 2(possibly 3) town reads were the ones that would never get lynched. So you in a different way proposing THE SAME plan I am that you scum read me for. Who was in your town circle? Kovath, banana, mattzed. Who were my no lynches? Kovath, banana, Mattzed or yourself to replace me.

I guess so?
its the way you told us who to lynch who in what order though that still makes a difference in my eyes though.

[Kovath]

But in my lynch plan your top 2(possibly 3) town reads were the ones that would never get lynched. So you in a different way proposing THE SAME plan I am that you scum read me for. Who was in your town circle? Kovath, banana, mattzed. Who were my no lynches? Kovath, banana, Mattzed or yourself to replace me.

I think the point of contention was the degree of flexibility moving forward: discretion vs. commitment. It's an important distinction to make.

I personally favor discretion.

[Firebringer]

Problem is day 1 reads are wrong too often.

town reads are less likely to be wrong imo.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

I think the point of contention was the degree of flexibility moving forward: discretion vs. commitment. It's an important distinction to make.

I personally favor discretion.

It was the exact same thing verbatim. I literally said lynch them in ANY order, but that I would rank them in my order. The whole point was that Banana and kovath would never be lynched, and that the other 4 were lynched in any order, replacing me with any of them if need be.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

@MattZed do you still read my 1v1 trade offer with unknown the same now that you know mafia only have one kill total?

[BananaCucho]

town reads are less likely to be wrong imo.

Disagree. All reads should be fluid and reevaluated after every lynch.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

Disagree. All reads should be fluid and reevaluated after every lynch.

Do you still read fire as town, have you expanded upon why you were/are town reading him? Sorry If I missed it.

[BananaCucho]

Do you still read fire as town, have you expanded upon why you were/are town reading him? Sorry If I missed it.

Yes I do. I've played a lot of games with Fire and he's in full on town mode. He's trying to set traps for scum, town clear players and suggest town motivated yet bad ideas like a town block. He is showing confidence which he does as town as well. I would be very surprised if Fire was scum.

[MattZed]

@MattZed do you still read my 1v1 trade offer with unknown the same now that you know mafia only have one kill total?

I see it much differently now. Previously, I thought it was optimal for scum to have one suicide and I was looking for signs of that in anyone. However, with only one kill, scum doesn't gain anything from having their partner lynched vs just going for a mislynch. (except maybe the ability to shoot the town leader, which I wouldn't call a good trade) So actually, scum want to survive, and the key is looking for those who are pursuing survival vs. sincere scumhunting/townhunting.

So yeah, I totally read your 1v1 differently. In fact, the willingness to self-sacrifice seems lightly indicative of town, if anything. That doesn't mean you're off the hook with me, yet. Your read list is still broadly organized into "people who are voting me are scum, those who never voted me are town," which I find now even more suspect now knowing that scum want to live. Killing people who disagree with you goes quite well for a scum wincon, presuming those who agree with you are less likely to lynch you. It doesn't, however, help a town wincon as ideology is largely independent of alignment, and thus a poor guide for scumhunting.

I need to re-evaluate a couple reads.

[MattZed]

Yes I do. I've played a lot of games with Fire and he's in full on town mode. He's trying to set traps for scum, town clear players and suggest town motivated yet bad ideas like a town block. He is showing confidence which he does as town as well. I would be very surprised if Fire was scum.

So it's a meta read, then? But Fire's known for gambits as scum. It wasn't too long ago that he convinced you he was town because he pulled a 1v1 gambit as town. What about his behavior in this game, setting traps and the like, feels different from his 1v1 gambit a few games ago?

[BananaCucho]

So it's a meta read, then? But Fire's known for gambits as scum. It wasn't too long ago that he convinced you he was town because he pulled a 1v1 gambit as town. What about his behavior in this game, setting traps and the like, feels different from his 1v1 gambit a few games ago?

His back was against the wall then.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

I see it much differently now. Previously, I thought it was optimal for scum to have one suicide and I was looking for signs of that in anyone. However, with only one kill, scum doesn't gain anything from having their partner lynched vs just going for a mislynch. (except maybe the ability to shoot the town leader, which I wouldn't call a good trade) So actually, scum want to survive, and the key is looking for those who are pursuing survival vs. sincere scumhunting/townhunting.

So yeah, I totally read your 1v1 differently. In fact, the willingness to self-sacrifice seems lightly indicative of town, if anything. That doesn't mean you're off the hook with me, yet. Your read list is still broadly organized into "people who are voting me are scum, those who never voted me are town," which I find now even more suspect now knowing that scum want to live. Killing people who disagree with you goes quite well for a scum wincon, presuming those who agree with you are less likely to lynch you. It doesn't, however, help a town wincon as ideology is largely independent of alignment, and thus a poor guide for scumhunting.

I need to re-evaluate a couple reads.

I mentioned this in a previous post. I had the exact same reads at the start of the game before there were any votes but for the initial pressure. The only things that have changed were helz and fire switched. You were added to my town circle after my ISO. My reason for switching fire for helz is grounded in much more than simply being voted by fire.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

Yes I do. I've played a lot of games with Fire and he's in full on town mode. He's trying to set traps for scum, town clear players and suggest town motivated yet bad ideas like a town block. He is showing confidence which he does as town as well. I would be very surprised if Fire was scum.

I read you as town for the "traps" more than fire. I too noted it as fire not actually coaching mafia, but I did not chalk it up as a town setting a trap. Maybe your analysis is correct, and it is probably more so than mine, but I don't see as telling mafia to stay alive is exactly a trap. It might be sub-optimal for them to simply stay alive, but I would assume staying alive entails scum hunting to come across as town and actively looking for their teammate.

[BananaCucho]

I read you as town for the "traps" more than fire. I too noted it as fire not actually coaching mafia, but I did not chalk it up as a town setting a trap. Maybe your analysis is correct, and it is probably more so than mine, but I don't see as telling mafia to stay alive is exactly a trap. It might be sub-optimal for them to simply stay alive, but I would assume staying alive entails scum hunting to come across as town and actively looking for their teammate.

The trap was "get yourself lynched, mafia, thsts a good strategy"

Mafia gets lynched day 1 for trying to get lynched - trap successful

[MattZed]

The trap was "get yourself lynched, mafia, thsts a good strategy"

Mafia gets lynched day 1 for trying to get lynched - trap successful

Which person here do you think Firebringer would think is stupid enough to fall for that?

[BananaCucho]

Which person here do you think Firebringer would think is stupid enough to fall for that?

Like I said it was a dumb trap but it gave fire town points in my eyes for trying. I explained all this earlier.

[BananaCucho]

When fire said "OK I'm stating the obvious, scum don't want to be lynched" it screamed "well looks like no one fell for my trap".

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

The trap was "get yourself lynched, mafia, thsts a good strategy"

Mafia gets lynched day 1 for trying to get lynched - trap successful

Aw man why did you respond! I had you down for a god read, but it was actually baddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd. I thought you were referring to fire saying "mafia strategy should be to stay alive day1" as in it was a trap because mafia will be alive, but not know who their teammate is.

[MattZed]

Like I said it was a dumb trap but it gave fire town points in my eyes for trying. I explained all this earlier.

But if it's a bad trap, then how do you differentiate between "town Fire setting traps" and "scum Fire trying to look town by laying traps his ally would never fall for"?

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

But if it's a bad trap, then how do you differentiate between "town Fire setting traps" and "scum Fire trying to look town by laying traps his ally would never fall for"?

Did we just become best friends?

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

Wow banana having a white name makes me want to lynch her, she no longer has the power!!

[BananaCucho]

But if it's a bad trap, then how do you differentiate between "town Fire setting traps" and "scum Fire trying to look town by laying traps his ally would never fall for"?

Its day 1. If I'm wrong there's lots of game to figure that out. Just like duck - I'm comfortable with reading Fire as town for now and that's part odnmy reasoning why. You can literally respond to anything like this - the WIFOM argument " ehat I'd they just did that to look town?". It felt like a genuine bad town play not a scum one.

[Kovath]

Did we just become best friends?

We all know that Duck is the true Trapper. He got me last game.

Laying traps is not something I feel strongly about either way, and I'd read it null. I don't think it's a big or definitive enough point to treat as indicative of alignment. i.e. the kind of thing to take into note but only to use as an argument by fitting it within a larger and more substantial case.

[BananaCucho]

Wow that is a lot of typos. Unlike duck I don't think I can play this and overwatch at the same time

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

Wow that is a lot of typos. Unlike duck I don't think I can play this and overwatch at the same time

no its fine, ignore my message on battle.net and ditch el duckro LOL. rejecteddddddd

[Helz]

Disagree. All reads should be fluid and reevaluated after every lynch.

The only reason to reevaluate reads is to look at the informed perspective. Right now, there is none. I believe that there is no reason to reevaluate after the first flip based on that flip because in this first lynch there is no information gained by the flip that relates to another players viability as a lynch target.

I will also say that I like the idea of town blocks so long as they are not universally accepted. Make your own town block to work with from your own reads and ignore others 'town blocks.' The easiest way for scum to win this will be to get a block of players formed with him inside that block. Town get lazy and stop reading players when there is some universal town block created.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

We all know that Duck is the true Trapper. He got me last game.

Laying traps is not something I feel strongly about either way, and I'd read it null. I don't think it's a big or definitive enough point to treat as indicative of alignment. i.e. the kind of thing to take into note but only to use as an argument by fitting it within a larger and more substantial case.

If I was consort that would have been interesting, I would have been able to roleblock the singer, and kill whad that night while timeforce got to track...

What are your thoughts on:

Fire pocketing play, then flips his read to mafia on me after the helz vote, etc.
Banana pocketing me, then remains town on me after the helz vote, etc.

Why do you think they came to different conclusions?

[Helz]

I will also say that the way the town is currently moving Unknown is shaping up to look like the end of day lynch. Thats not from my read but rather a feel of everyone's reads on everyone else.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

@Helz

I wouldn't mind your response to the question I asked kovath above either, Did not know you were still around.

Also, do you think unknown's lack of contribution is alignment indicative at all, and if not do you think it warrants a policy lynch?

[Helz]

@Helz

I wouldn't mind your response to the question I asked kovath above either, Did not know you were still around.

Also, do you think unknown's lack of contribution is alignment indicative at all, and if not do you think it warrants a policy lynch?

Yeah, was just taking care of some stuffs : )

I have kind of been avoiding hitting on Unknown because I feel like a very small amount of pushing locks him in for the lynch and I do not like having anything locked in this early. I will say that it bothered me quite a bit that he has pushed conversations away from in game stuff when responding to pressure and that the timing of him going offline in the early game has a lot of potential to be extremely opportunistic. I would still rather lynch Banana more than any other player at this time though.

Fire pocketing play, then flips his read to mafia on me after the helz vote, etc.
Banana pocketing me, then remains town on me after the helz vote, etc.

Why do you think they came to different conclusions?

I am not quite following what you are asking me here. Are you just asking why I think Fire flipped his read on you but Banana did not?

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

yes