S-FM 211 : Three Foes and a Stranger

[Eggy]

i think its good that yuki is being replaced(he/she is a fucking troll) needless to say doctor on mayor pls. I think we shud lynch unknown I am confident he will flip scum. I dont think a no lynch is a good idea. As I see it right now unknown is the only possible lynch for today because me and mesk are not changing our votes. I suggest 2 other people get smart and get rid of the scummiest player here. The only person I would potentially vote is DW but id rather lynch unknown and he is already at L2 hopefully this new mayor is willing to vote him. if JT votes unknown we only need one last town member to agree with us and we will have gotten rid of another scum. anyway goodnight ppl ill b on tmrw

[MattZed]

i think its good that yuki is being replaced(he/she is a fucking troll) needless to say doctor on mayor pls. I think we shud lynch unknown I am confident he will flip scum. I dont think a no lynch is a good idea. As I see it right now unknown is the only possible lynch for today because me and mesk are not changing our votes. I suggest 2 other people get smart and get rid of the scummiest player here. The only person I would potentially vote is DW but id rather lynch unknown and he is already at L2 hopefully this new mayor is willing to vote him. if JT votes unknown we only need one last town member to agree with us and we will have gotten rid of another scum. anyway goodnight ppl ill b on tmrw

Why aren't you two changing your votes, and why are you confident enough to speak for Mesk?

[MattZed]

Nah, probably would have said the same thing TBH.

Given that a neutral is confirmed, the chances of a serial killer are much more likely to me. Not confirmed, sure, but one of the more expected outcomes.

Why? Because if you have a witch, you have 4 people who are allied together. Sure, you could have the Mafia kill the witch or have the witch mess up the Mafia, but if it gets to 4v4 or lower and they all haven't died, it really does raise the odds of them winning by a heavy amount. I don't see you cover any other alternatives except a Vigilante on its own which seems risky to shoot on night 1 with little knowledge to be had. Serial Killer fits in rather well to the setup.

That being said, I hope the Mafia are overall displeased with killing Snorlax because the game has flipped to a ghost town.

The reasoning here as to why we don't have a witch is really odd. (IE: I'm reading it as fake)

It's one thing to setup speculate, but at least do some GOOD setup speculation. The Vig rolecard clearly said it couldn't attack N1. The reason we know there wasn't a vig kill is because a reasonable reading of the setup excludes this. The notion that the setup wouldn't be balanced is unnecessary, (and untrue) which makes this read much more as "I know there's an SK and I need to justify how I know this" rather than "I think there's an SK and here is why." Granted, he could just have a hunch it's an SK and be articulating it poorly here, but I'm suspicious.

[MattZed]

The reasoning here as to why we don't have a witch is really odd. (IE: I'm reading it as fake)

It's one thing to setup speculate, but at least do some GOOD setup speculation. The Vig rolecard clearly said it couldn't attack N1. The reason we know there wasn't a vig kill is because a reasonable reading of the setup excludes this. The notion that the setup wouldn't be balanced is unnecessary, (and untrue) which makes this read much more as "I know there's an SK and I need to justify how I know this" rather than "I think there's an SK and here is why." Granted, he could just have a hunch it's an SK and be articulating it poorly here, but I'm suspicious.

Update: I've just read the part where RLVG said Vigs could be witched to kill N1. Vat. In any case, I stand by my reasoning that "it isn't a balanced setup" is the wrong reason to conclude against there being a witch.

[MattZed]

I feel like this is important to mention.

Was anyone roleblocked?

Derp, I goofed.

death, you can read the setup about vigs but you can't check if consorts leave feedback?

[MattZed]

I don't like Jealous or Eggy atm. Don't have quotes to pin this on currently, but Jealous' reasoning seems to be consistently overstated, and the fact that one of his biggest suspects turns out to be the mayor means he's either trying to mislynch or simply failed at scumhunting. Will have to evaluate later to see how hard likely I can believe that he simply failed.

Eggy's vote reeks of opportunism. The biggest train just so happens to be his top pick? Really?

I meta DW as town from past experience with how he works. Namely, he tunnels one player in particular and then makes a case on their alignment based on word choice. Possible mafia for the reason that he tunneled onto someone who seems neutral, but I still find it more in line with his town play in general.

Dislike Gyrlander's lack of energy. I've been scum with him more than once, and lurking it out is just kind of how it goes with him. Throwing a quick vote out at deathworlds looks like trying to throw out a vote no one would really look twice at rather than someone he actually has a reason to scumread. Could just not have enough time to be a non-lurker, but this seems fake.

I'm null-to-town on Unknown. Mostly a soft PoE from who I currently like/dislike, but counter-balanced by my point above about his reasoning for there not being a witch.

[Mesk514]

MZ, Unknown, JTL/DW

theres your scum

Goodjob everybody

[Mesk514]

MattZed, c'mon buddy. you've played scum with Eggy the most times, this is not how he plays scum.

[Unknown1234]

I am honestly flabbergasted that Yuki could potentially be our mayor, and equally terrified is such is the case. I had him as our neutral, but I didn't plan on pursuing that today.

This development has me rethinking things a lot of things, but Yuki's vote against you is not something I plan to follow.

I feel confident saying you, Mesk, and Eggy are town. I may back my vote off of Unknown, but I want to see what MZ has to say when he catches up.

I don't like this post because you say you "might" take your vote off me. All that does is make you look bad for not doing it, but using the "I sort of believed him" later as an excuse.

[Unknown1234]

MZ, Unknown, JTL/DW

theres your scum

Goodjob everybody

Because MattZed JUST got here and that since he's not in agreement with you he must be scum. Got it.

I honestly don't think you and Eggy are even trying at this point. Eggy is saying "Mesk is conf town so I'll trust her judgement" and you haven't build any sort of case on me except for what SecondLynch has said, and given how I responded you have not even addressed that or tried to discuss with me so it's very sad how you think I'm scum.

[MattZed]

MattZed, c'mon buddy. you've played scum with Eggy the most times, this is not how he plays scum.

I'll admit I haven't looked as closely as I wanted in my 500-post skim, and I will agree that Eggy is usually more active as scum, but that doesn't mean his relative inactivity now proves he's town. (Cit, even?!?)

[Unknown1234]

MattZed, c'mon buddy. you've played scum with Eggy the most times, this is not how he plays scum.

Given you just said both of us are scum, this shows complete desperation for my lynch.

Zzz.

[MattZed]

Bedtime. Will pop up 30 minutes before day end.

[Gyrlander]

Fantastic, MZ joined the party.

[Gyrlander]

I don't like Jealous or Eggy atm. Don't have quotes to pin this on currently, but Jealous' reasoning seems to be consistently overstated, and the fact that one of his biggest suspects turns out to be the mayor means he's either trying to mislynch or simply failed at scumhunting. Will have to evaluate later to see how hard likely I can believe that he simply failed.

Eggy's vote reeks of opportunism. The biggest train just so happens to be his top pick? Really?

I meta DW as town from past experience with how he works. Namely, he tunnels one player in particular and then makes a case on their alignment based on word choice. Possible mafia for the reason that he tunneled onto someone who seems neutral, but I still find it more in line with his town play in general.

Dislike Gyrlander's lack of energy. I've been scum with him more than once, and lurking it out is just kind of how it goes with him. Throwing a quick vote out at deathworlds looks like trying to throw out a vote no one would really look twice at rather than someone he actually has a reason to scumread. Could just not have enough time to be a non-lurker, but this seems fake.

I'm null-to-town on Unknown. Mostly a soft PoE from who I currently like/dislike, but counter-balanced by my point above about his reasoning for there not being a witch.

I'm pretty sure you have been scum with me 1 time and it was in Ultron bla bla bla, one game which I've got admit I joined and after a while I didn't want to do anything and as such got replaced, so that should take down your "schemes".

I can agree with most things that you say here, except with DW basically because you're basing your reads on meta so... yeah.

[Gyrlander]

Amazing that I somehow missed Yuki's claim because of the fucking picture which made me to skip the post rofl.

Is MZ replacing Yuki or...? PLEASE INFORMATION COME TO ME

[Unknown1234]

Amazing that I somehow missed Yuki's claim because of the fucking picture which made me to skip the post rofl.

Is MZ replacing Yuki or...? PLEASE INFORMATION COME TO ME

Matt replaced that guy who never spoke I think. Desks Or whatever.

[Mesk514]

Given you just said both of us are scum, this shows complete desperation for my lynch.

Zzz.

oh yes, the confirmed town is so desperate.

[JealousTL]

Well, since Yuki is confirmed (and gone, hooray!), then I have only one option left.

-vote Unknown1234

[Unknown1234]

So, I have a little break and when I come back there's one post and it's a vote on me?

Please just vote me someone, if this results in a no lynch we are going nowhere.

[Unknown1234]

Just remember that Stereo and JealousTL or most likely scum, Jealous may be evil.

Can't say anything on Matt not enough time to analyze and he hasn't done much.

Deathworlds could be neutral. Don't see him as scum unless it's Gyrlander, Eggy or MattZed. (inactive ones)

Mesk is just annoying.

SecondLynch has been too passive aggressive which means he's probably town. Although, he has way too many people following him.

Honestly, vote Stereo or JealousTL tomorrow. I don't see those votes going wrong at this point. If scum are lurking AGAIn this game then it's just sad and I don't care.

[RLVG]

S-FM 211 :
Three Foes and a Strangers
(Click Me for Setup)

Night 2

The spaceman rents himself a room in a hotel to never be seen again, totally suspicious right?
Because of this, the completely undercover mayor revealed himself.
Aaaand everyone went to sleep because screw politics.
The gangsters saw that everyone went to sleep, so they plan to strike again during the night...

Graveyard :
- Random Policerinos (RP)
- Drizzt - Citizen (Day 1)
@Quick - Consort (Night 1)
@Snorlax - Investigator (Night 1)



Alive Players :
@JealousTL
@Eggy
@Gyrlander
@Mesk514
@SecondLynch
@Stereo
@Unknown1234
@Yukitaka Oni
@deathworlds
@MattZed

• 00

• 00

• 00

• 00

DAYS HOURS MINUTES SECONDS

[RLVG]

S-FM 211 :
Three Foes and a Strangers
(Click Me for Setup)

Day 3

The gangsters made an assault on the town for no apparent reason as they killed a civilian.
Or well, a more "special" civilian, an Escort.
A very favored civilian, so they threw the body back at one of the gangsters and they died somehow.
A quick autopsy was made and the gangster died because the false evidence in his body stabbed him...
Science says he's a Framer..
So now there's just a single gangster remaining.
That gangster noped away into the shadows. Will we be able to find him?
What about that totally rad stranger, will anyone be able to trust them?
Story still doesn't make totally sense.

Mesk514 died. They were an Escort.
Stereo died. They were a Framer.

Graveyard :
- Random Policerinos (RP)
- Drizzt - Citizen (Day 1)
- Quick - Consort (Night 1)
- Snorlax - Investigator (Night 1)
@Mesk514 - Escort (Night 2)
@Stereo - Framer (Night 2)



Alive Players :
@JealousTL
@Eggy
@Gyrlander
@SecondLynch
@Unknown1234
@AnassRhamur
@deathworlds
@MattZed

• 00

• 00

• 00

• 00

DAYS HOURS MINUTES SECONDS

5 votes to hammer.

[deathworlds]

K so who was the one who chainsaw defended Stereo?

I really wish mesk left a last will regarding who she targeted...

-vote JealousTL

[deathworlds]

K so who was the one who chainsaw defended Stereo?

I really wish mesk left a last will regarding who she targeted...

-vote JealousTL

Fucking nvm. So we have very little information to work with.

[RLVG]

@AnassRhamur will be replacing Yukitaka Oni, the Confirmed Mayor.
Interesting replacement.

AnassRhamur is the mayor with 2 votes.

[deathworlds]

@AnassRhamur will be replacing Yukitaka Oni, the Confirmed Mayor.
Interesting replacement.

I don't know if this'll be better or worse...

[MattZed]

-vote Unknown1234

Casting my vote. Quick has you as probably town, and I don't think JTL is scum.

Stereo's only vote yesterday. Gonna guess Unknown isn't Mafia.

From a quick look at their interactions, I can buy JTL as a partner to Stereo.

-vote JealousTL

[deathworlds]

Honestly didn't expect a framer tbh.

[deathworlds]

Honestly didn't expect a framer tbh.

Gross, I said "honest" twice in the same sentence.

[MattZed]

Honestly didn't expect a framer tbh.

Why not? There are only 7 possible mafia roles, and it seems rather unlikely that there's still a janitor.

[deathworlds]

Why not? There are only 7 possible mafia roles, and it seems rather unlikely that there's still a janitor.

I was thinking maybe double investigative... Didn't expect a janitor.

[MattZed]

I was thinking maybe double investigative... Didn't expect a janitor.

I don't even.

In other news, given that we're almost certain Mafia killed Mesk, (only other possibility is that there's a witch and a vig who was witched N1 but didn't feel like then revealing himself) why? Mafia killed Calix N1 and thus seemed to be setting up a pattern of going for the more active and experienced players. But then... Mesk?

This gives me a question: Why is SecondLynch, who has more experienced players and was more active than Mesk, alive? What Mafia wouldn't murder the shit out of them?

Possibilities:
1. SecondLynch is the last mafia
2. SL was in fact were targeted, and there is some bus driving going around. (Or I suppose they were bold enough to target mayor and mayor got swapped)
3. Mafia knew Mesk was a TPR, either with their unrevealed investigative or from some softclaim I haven't picked up on.
4. Mafia somehow considered her a bigger threat.

[Unknown1234]

Thank you to all who thought I was mafia, because you all suck.

I'll be back when I have a tad more time, but I am happy I was right about Stereo.

[deathworlds]

I'm more confused with the Serial Killer/witch, I think they'd be easer to find on account of their poor play.

Optimal Neutral scum play would be to side with the mafia as soon as the first mafia died, to help even the numbers. However, they've done nothing but attack their scum reads/mafia. The Neutral scum is obviously inexperienced and doesn't quite know what they are doing, which leads me to believe that it is JealousTL, or even Eggy.

[Unknown1234]

Add to your point though, that if SecondLynch isn't mafia, no mafia would leave Mesk alive because she wasn't going to be lynched, it was disapproved of by almost everyone.

[deathworlds]

Add to your point though, that if SecondLynch isn't mafia, no mafia would leave Mesk alive because she wasn't going to be lynched, it was disapproved of by almost everyone.

<--- was the exception, Mesk would be on the chopping block after JealousTL or Eggy.

[Unknown1234]

<--- was the exception, Mesk would be on the chopping block after JealousTL or Eggy.

I think my last will is/was convincing. You might have listened to me more knowing my position against Jealous/Stereo was a town one.

[Unknown1234]

Just saying now that I'm probably voting Jealous at this point unless something comes up that is new. Still seeing high chances of him being both Mafia and Neutral.

[MattZed]

I'm more confused with the Serial Killer/witch, I think they'd be easer to find on account of their poor play.

Optimal Neutral scum play would be to side with the mafia as soon as the first mafia died, to help even the numbers. However, they've done nothing but attack their scum reads/mafia. The Neutral scum is obviously inexperienced and doesn't quite know what they are doing, which leads me to believe that it is JealousTL, or even Eggy.

I disagree. I suspect the neut was killing townreads because that is the optimal play until town numbers go down. I'm reading the start of D1 now, and Stereo seems generally rather townread. Seems quite plausible he was going for townreads but perhaps avoiding those he thought mafia would go for.

[MattZed]

Add to your point though, that if SecondLynch isn't mafia, no mafia would leave Mesk alive because she wasn't going to be lynched, it was disapproved of by almost everyone.

I'll admit that I may have mis-assessed how strong Mesk's presence has been in this game and that mafia may have simply have thought her the most logical kill for the reason you outlined.

[deathworlds]

I disagree. I suspect the neut was killing townreads because that is the optimal playuntil town numbers go down. I'm reading the start of D1 now, and Stereo seems generally rather townread. Seems quite plausible he was going for townreads but perhaps avoiding those he thought mafia would go for.

My case is that the player is inexperienced, ergo they wouldn't go for the optimal play.

[MattZed]

My case is that the player is inexperienced, ergo they wouldn't go for the optimal play.

But why would you suspect inexperienced SK vs. experienced SK?

[deathworlds]

But why would you suspect inexperienced SK vs. experienced SK?

Because of the two dead mafia scum.

[deathworlds]

Because of the two dead mafia scum.

On day 3 nonetheless.

[MattZed]

Because of the two dead mafia scum.

First one has a good probability of being Quick RB'ing the SK. (although why didn't Stereo's LW tell us who it is if so? Although if Unknown was RB'd by Quick, it would explain both Stereo's vote and perhaps Unknown's train in general) Second one could just be a bad shot, since SK is uninformed. I'm still not seeing where the evidence is to suspect the SK is inexperienced.

[deathworlds]

First one has a good probability of being Quick RB'ing the SK. (although why didn't Stereo's LW tell us who it is if so? Although if Unknown was RB'd by Quick, it would explain both Stereo's vote and perhaps Unknown's train in general) Second one could just be a bad shot, since SK is uninformed. I'm still not seeing where the evidence is to suspect the SK is inexperienced.

Well if we're sure that Quick RB'd the SK we just need to figure out who is on Quick's scumlist.

[deathworlds]

Well if we're sure that Quick RB'd the SK we just need to figure out who is on Quick's scumlist.

lol shit nvm, Quick is consort

[deathworlds]

lol shit nvm, Quick is consort

I'm having an awful time paying attention to the graveyard...

So then we need to figureout who Quick thought was TPR.

[JealousTL]

Thank you to all who thought I was mafia, because you all suck.

I'll be back when I have a tad more time, but I am happy I was right about Stereo.

I made a case on you, a much better case than anyone has made on anyone to date. Your case on me was wrought with holes. I pointed them out. You have responded in detail to neither my case on you nor my showing the holes in your case. Please step out of the tunnel for a moment.

I am surprised by Stereo's flip, and also question why SK (if that is the case, which seems to be the overwhelming possibility) would target him. I will think on that later. Perhaps there is indeed a busdriver.

I still find it hard to believe that Unknown1234 vs. SL was TvT or SvS; it makes sense that Unknown1234 didn't get NK because he was just 1 vote shy of being lynched, but SL remaining alive does not make much sense to me. I'm going to turn around my read on Unknown vs. SL due to this. I will have to re-examine SL's D2 play, but for now I will park here.

-vote SecondLynch

Working off PoE, if SL is the scum, then it is impossible for MattZed to be neutral. That's all I have for now, lots of work to do. I will add more tomorrow.