S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

[Ganelon]

And, about Noz: yeah, it does seem like a rather easy lynch, now that I think about it. But we definitely cannot have 3 citizens.

[Ganelon]

We don’t want to lynch anyone just yet. If the Witches were to jump on the lynch train and if one of those being voted is a townie, he could get lynched very fast; better to spread the votes amongst a group.

[Ganelon]

Btw, I may have to go afk for about an hour and a half in a few minutes (in 50 mins at best).

[Noz_Bugz]

Also (insert text here) for me is explaining something in reads.

[Distorted]

And, about Noz: yeah, it does seem like a rather easy lynch, now that I think about it. But we definitely cannot have 3 citizens.

that's why im still not 100% on Soviet. He is being pro-town and really contributing, which is a HUGE difference from last game he played (he was town as well) he played a lot more reserved. The info he is giving however is neutral info, does it benefit the town? yes. Does it benefit the evils? If the evils have a lower rolled scenario statistically, HUGE benefit for evils there because town will be focused on the "more obvious higher %" scenarios. both Mag and MM have both "confirmed" Soviet as a town read. Seems not many people want to pressure him and it seems the topic gets changed to other people when it does. Now, to be fair the reason it does get changed is because his posts really are, neutral, logical info.

[Ganelon]

What’s ‘ISO’?

[Marshmallow Marshall]

And, about Noz: yeah, it does seem like a rather easy lynch, now that I think about it. But we definitely cannot have 3 citizens.

But then it only leaves you lol... Soviet is town.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Btw, I may have to go afk for about an hour and a half in a few minutes (in 50 mins at best).

I'll go in like 10 minutes, so if u got questions ask them!

[Noz_Bugz]

That's a good start. I think you've got reading to do ^^

reading is fun, I've tried it

[Distorted]

that's why im still not 100% on Soviet. He is being pro-town and really contributing, which is a HUGE difference from last game he played (he was town as well) he played a lot more reserved. The info he is giving however is neutral info, does it benefit the town? yes. Does it benefit the evils? If the evils have a lower rolled scenario statistically, HUGE benefit for evils there because town will be focused on the "more obvious higher %" scenarios. both Mag and MM have both "confirmed" Soviet as a town read. Seems not many people want to pressure him and it seems the topic gets changed to other people when it does. Now, to be fair the reason it does get changed is because his posts really are, neutral, logical info.

Actually - come to think of it there is literally no way some1 can appear as scum if they are just posting the math of the setup. It would be a very safe strategy for an evil to play while still giving huge amounts of information.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

that's why im still not 100% on Soviet. He is being pro-town and really contributing, which is a HUGE difference from last game he played (he was town as well) he played a lot more reserved. The info he is giving however is neutral info, does it benefit the town? yes. Does it benefit the evils? If the evils have a lower rolled scenario statistically, HUGE benefit for evils there because town will be focused on the "more obvious higher %" scenarios. both Mag and MM have both "confirmed" Soviet as a town read. Seems not many people want to pressure him and it seems the topic gets changed to other people when it does. Now, to be fair the reason it does get changed is because his posts really are, neutral, logical info.

That makes me town-read you more. Even if I really think there's no world Soviet is scum (because that means both noz and mag are town), you pulling for questioning someone who will obviously not be lynched today is a Town behavior. +2

[Noz_Bugz]

-vote Magoroth

Imo i want to hear as much from him/her as possible untill they leave

[Distorted]

BTW: if you guys have not seen it yet, a new Forum Mafia signup is available.

https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showth...122#post717122

I havent let looked through the setup

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Actually - come to think of it there is literally no way some1 can appear as scum if they are just posting the math of the setup. It would be a very safe strategy for an evil to play while still giving huge amounts of information.

Uh, what does that mean?

Your recent posts made me think you're town very much, and it makes Ozy fall even more low in my reads. I still didn't forget how when Mag and Ozy controlled chat on D1, the narrative switched a lot.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

BTW: if you guys have not seen it yet, a new Forum Mafia signup is available.

https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showth...122#post717122

I havent let looked through the setup

It's black flag nightless, I've suggested it myself because I want to be able to pressure vote people!! It's without a night, with mandatory lynches. One of my favourites

[Marshmallow Marshall]

We don’t want to lynch anyone just yet. If the Witches were to jump on the lynch train and if one of those being voted is a townie, he could get lynched very fast; better to spread the votes amongst a group.

No. Don't spread votes all over the place. Question players, just don't put them at L-2.

[Distorted]

Uh, what does that mean?

Your recent posts made me think you're town very much, and it makes Ozy fall even more low in my reads. I still didn't forget how when Mag and Ozy controlled chat on D1, the narrative switched a lot.

It just means if som1 is stating 1+1 = 2 there is no way to read if that is a scum or town post; it is a fact (which makes it come off as towny). stating the facts of the setup is the same thing, stating facts.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

What’s ‘ISO’?

Isolation. Aka I'll put all your posts in a big "wallpost" and will comment them. Then I'll get a conclusion out of them, which will be "Mag is town", "Mag is town-like", "Mag is scummy", "Mag is scum", with details on it. However, such a post usually takes something like an hour to do... Which is why I won't do it yet.

[OzyWho]

Soviet_Love: Citizen
Noz_Bugz: Citizen
Magoroth: Citizen

Distorted: TPR (vig/dog/bg)
MM: TPR (union leader)
OzyWho: TPR (sheriff)

In each set, we have 1 scum and 2 town.

Exactly. And from my standpoint - it's still ~10% that Mag is evil. And since I would bet my life on you being a townie - it's 90% of me that Noz is Scum.

And that's why - my vote won't change today. I rather we abstain today than lynch anyone other than Noz.
---

However, Ozy claiming sheriff I think is a high chance for a "buddying" tactic. Ozy views you @Magoroth as 1 of the strongest players in the mod, he says it all the time. So the first thing he would try to do as a scum is get you on his side. Sheriff is such an easy claim for a Witch due to knowing every single claim already, and can "confirm" himself with his strongest town read. Notice how you have completely stopped accusing him since that reveal?

This is true if we speak about SC2Maf. But if we speak about this FM game in particular - feel free to check post #183 again, what I said about him. I also only complimented Distorted and Soviet so far for good play. I'm sure I might have bmed everyone else.You have a reasonable assumption, but if you check this game so far - idk how you could possibly thing that it's my opinion about Mag. If he is town - he is the most useless, unless Noz is town.

I can only remember Mag reapeating on both - Day1 and Day2, that he sees me as the most confirmed townie. Are you certain that there were any accusations to stop to begin with? +scum points to you.
---

Also yes, if I had time I'd make an ISO of magoroth. I will try to do that today. He indeed has stopped the accusations against ozy.

Really? What accusations are you guys talking about? First I thought Distorted is trying something, but now you agree?

Also, about your comment me being unreadable or whatever. I think some of my posts in this thread were the most agressives ones in it. + I change my opinions often. I think peoples emotional response to me clouds their better judgement.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

It just means if som1 is stating 1+1 = 2 there is no way to read if that is a scum or town post; it is a fact (which makes it come off as towny). stating the facts of the setup is the same thing, stating facts.

But if noone does it and it really helps the town, because it's to plan when to lynch, and who to lynch, is it really a NAI (Not Alignment Indicative)?

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Exactly. And from my standpoint - it's still ~10% that Mag is evil. And since I would bet my life on you being a townie - it's 90% of me that Noz is Scum.

And that's why - my vote won't change today. I rather we abstain today than lynch anyone other than Noz.
---

This is true if we speak about SC2Maf. But if we speak about this FM game in particular - feel free to check post #183 again, what I said about him. I also only complimented Distorted and Soviet so far for good play. I'm sure I might have bmed everyone else.You have a reasonable assumption, but if you check this game so far - idk how you could possibly thing that it's my opinion about Mag. If he is town - he is the most useless, unless Noz is town.

I can only remember Mag reapeating on both - Day1 and Day2, that he sees me as the most confirmed townie. Are you certain that there were any accusations to stop to begin with? +scum points to you.
---

Really? What accusations are you guys talking about? First I thought Distorted is trying something, but now you agree?

Also, about your comment me being unreadable or whatever. I think some of my posts in this thread were the most agressives ones in it. + I change my opinions often. I think peoples emotional response to me clouds their better judgement.

On D1. It'll be there on my iso.

[Distorted]

But if noone does it and it really helps the town, because it's to plan when to lynch, and who to lynch, is it really a NAI (Not Alignment Indicative)?

it is pro - town UNLESS the evils have 1 of the less common lower % rolls. then it will give town a false sense of comfort.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Ok the reading is done, now I gtg, see you later!

[OzyWho]

Ahh, feels bad man. Whats the point of directing questions to someone with the MENTION tag, if they don't respond?
Fucking monologues all game long?
@Distorted , I asked you about your opniion on post #49, because I think a real townie would have no reason to post it, but keep it in his last will and memory for later.
@Soviet_Love , I asked you something about if we lynch a mass murderer, i dont remember what.

I think its not the first or the 2nd time people ignore questions i direct to them. It's frustrating. Monologues and statements only...

[OzyWho]

@Noz_Bugz not giving his thoughts on my question to him at the end of Day1 still annoys me, when I asked what we do if judge day2. He even promised

[OzyWho]

Alright, so we have two groups of citizens and two groups of TPRs - one player in each group is a scum.

For all I care - the citizen group is the easier one. Don't see how we could possibly lynch anyone other than Noz from that group.

[Distorted]

Ahh, feels bad man. Whats the point of directing questions to someone with the MENTION tag, if they don't respond?
Fucking monologues all game long?
@Distorted , I asked you about your opniion on post #49, because I think a real townie would have no reason to post it, but keep it in his last will and memory for later.
@Soviet_Love , I asked you something about if we lynch a mass murderer, i dont remember what.

I think its not the first or the 2nd time people ignore questions i direct to them. It's frustrating. Monologues and statements only...

This is post #49

Just noticed something, potential slip that I will however not tell for now. Bookmark post #4

There are actually a lot of benefits to this. It is a precursor to allow people to know you noticed something, but outting it may stop the behavior or allow the evils to potentially "correct" the direction they are going. Not revealing it and waiting for a big slip is something that is done frequently. I have done that with a few pushes already or behaviors ive noticed, but most did not follow in the direction i was thinking/hoping; I just didn't state I had a pattern in question. There are a few things I am also waiting for now, one of which does involve you as well; if it doesn't happen I will be very curious as to why, however if it does then its + town points.

[Distorted]

Alright, so we have two groups of citizens and two groups of TPRs - one player in each group is a scum.

For all I care - the citizen group is the easier one. Don't see how we could possibly lynch anyone other than Noz from that group.

You based you trusting a sheriff lead on magoroth due to it being 10% chance. Yet TPR lynch is 50% chance and citizen is 33% chance for success. If you are indeed a TPR, pushing at the TPRs would be a smarter move from you since you KNOW there can only be 1 - limiting to the people you need to look at as me and MM.

The citizen group you have Soviet, who could be playing a very elaborate scum game, Magoroth, which u even state 10% evil (if u are sheriff), which could potentially raise with the misdirection witch, and Noz, some1 every1 has pushed and wanted to lynch and is pretty much just afk. He really did not even seem phased he was getting pushed, making me believe stronger he is a bad lynch.

[OzyWho]

There are a few things I am also waiting for now, one of which does involve you as well; if it doesn't happen I will be very curious as to why, however if it does then its + town points.

Just ask now, because if it hasn't happend, whatever it is, it won't. My mind on citizens is clear, while TPRs its a literal 50/50. I don't like taking chances.
So my mind won't change so easily, while I also won't reread stuff. At least not the next ~12 hours for sure. And as far as I can think - I have said everything I can.

[Distorted]

Just ask now, because if it hasn't happend, whatever it is, it won't. My mind on citizens is clear, while TPRs its a literal 50/50. I don't like taking chances.
So my mind won't change so easily, while I also won't reread stuff. At least not the next ~12 hours for sure. And as far as I can think - I have said everything I can.

lol we are discussing what it was right now. You not even addressing that 1 of the TPRs is lying and going forward to try and push citizens, and noz at that.

You say TPRs is a literal 50% --- citizens is a literal 33% so your mind is clear on lynching a citizen? seems like a huge difference in failure risk based off numbers alone. Read - wise what do you think about my thoughts on soviet? The further we go the more odd i find it that no1 is even touching on him.

[Distorted]

@Soviet_Love I would like your reads on people individually rather than just stating what roles ppl claim and the math of the setup.

[Distorted]

@Soviet_Love I would like your reads on people individually rather than just stating what roles ppl claim and the math of the setup.

Scums have a tendancy to not "analyze" individual posts as much due to they are not really "looking" for anything - so scums have a harder time doing "individual reads" on people; since all of their "scum reads" have to be fabricated.

[Ganelon]

Scums have a tendancy to not "analyze" individual posts as much due to they are not really "looking" for anything - so scums have a harder time doing "individual reads" on people; since all of their "scum reads" have to be fabricated.

I second this. +1

[Ganelon]

If this Squirrel is scum he is the MVP of this game.

[OzyWho]

You not even addressing that 1 of the TPRs is lying and going forward to try and push citizens, and noz at that.

I'm in a "Today citizen group, tommorow TPR group" mind. I really am not in mood to think which one of you two is the devil when we can postpone it to tommorow. Way too tired for that. If you guys want to discuss it today, be my guest.

But why is "and noz at that" a thing?
---

You say TPRs is a literal 50% --- citizens is a literal 33% so your mind is clear on lynching a citizen? seems like a huge difference in failure risk based off numbers alone. Read - wise what do you think about my thoughts on soviet? The further we go the more odd i find it that no1 is even touching on him.

Where you see 33%, I see 90%.

[OzyWho]

Ohh. Your thoughts about Soviet? You can be skeptical about everything. I for one already said - I am not complicating things on the off-chance that soviet or mog might be evil. I'm just going with it that they are not. I dont see it worth thinking about every miniscule possibility out there.

[Soviet_Love]

Btw Distorted, just to confirm: are you Escort RBing me last night? It'd be nice to know... lol

It's unclear. He's vig, dog, or bg. If he was escort, he would have claimed because that would be helpful. If he is town-escort, distorted would have revealed. The fact that he has not claims likely means that he is either scum consort, or claiming vig, dog, or bg. Not escort.

The consort is someone who has already claimed a role and they are lying.

[Soviet_Love]

Let’s assume, for a moment, that I am Scum and that MM is a townie - the Mason Leader. I have not played Forum Mafia before, so I have little information to go on about Marshmallow’s skill and meta. Were I witch I would’ve roleblocked Distorted, because I know that if he is a TPR, I, as a Witch, am screwed if he gets to use his night action.

I dont understand lol.

[Distorted]

I'm in a "Today citizen group, tommorow TPR group" mind. I really am not in mood to think which one of you two is the devil when we can postpone it to tommorow. Way too tired for that. If you guys want to discuss it today, be my guest.

But why is "and noz at that" a thing?
---

Where you see 33%, I see 90%.

What is your current read on everyone and why? You tend to be pushing at an AFK and the most suspicious person - before we get down to the wire let's explore EVERYONE. Because there is no1 here that has a "big town read" for me anymore. I really am curious to hear Soviets read list - I think that alone will tell me a lot.

[OzyWho]

What is your current read on everyone and why?

I might make another that kind of post tomorrow. Definitely not today.
As far as I can remember - I'm certain I have done the most "this is what i think of everyone and everything" posts. Only you might have more. So go read one of those - chances are my opinions haven't changed much.

[Soviet_Love]

Ahh, feels bad man. Whats the point of directing questions to someone with the MENTION tag, if they don't respond?
Fucking monologues all game long?
@Distorted , I asked you about your opniion on post #49, because I think a real townie would have no reason to post it, but keep it in his last will and memory for later.
@Soviet_Love , I asked you something about if we lynch a mass murderer, i dont remember what.

I think its not the first or the 2nd time people ignore questions i direct to them. It's frustrating. Monologues and statements only...

what was the question, ill answer now lol

[Soviet_Love]

You based you trusting a sheriff lead on magoroth due to it being 10% chance. Yet TPR lynch is 50% chance and citizen is 33% chance for success. If you are indeed a TPR, pushing at the TPRs would be a smarter move from you since you KNOW there can only be 1 - limiting to the people you need to look at as me and MM.

The citizen group you have Soviet, who could be playing a very elaborate scum game, Magoroth, which u even state 10% evil (if u are sheriff), which could potentially raise with the misdirection witch, and Noz, some1 every1 has pushed and wanted to lynch and is pretty much just afk. He really did not even seem phased he was getting pushed, making me believe stronger he is a bad lynch.

How is TPR 50% and citizen is 33%? It is funny because from my perspective, citizen is 50% and TPR is 33% lol

[Ganelon]

My reads:

Possible Town:

Unclear, possibly Ozy and Distorted. Maybe Noz, the inactive Citizen? Seriously, don't sign up for an FM if you're not going to play - you had, at one point, less posts than the Host.

Scum:

Marshmallow - revealed the possible TPR on Day 1 (?)

Ozy (?) - the buddying tactic would make sense; almost everyone wanted to Lynch me on the first day, himself included. Him not believing I was town made me panic, rendering me vulnerable to a buddying attempt on the second day - his sheriff claim. Unclear for me at this point.

[OzyWho]

what was the question, ill answer now lol

It doesn't matter really anymore. But the question was:
If we happen to lynch a mass murderer today - will the other witch be able to kill on Night2? Given that the other witch is not the one who killed on Night1.
If yes then could it be worth considering me not visitng anyone on Night2 so no possible double-kill?

The question popped in my mind at that moment when I asked and I directed it to you because you were posting a lot at that time. Really don't care much about it anymore. I was just trying to describe how frustrating it is that people don't respond

[Soviet_Love]

Also I don't really want to go through and like multi-quote someone across multiple posts, it is a lot of energy. I feel like I've been contributing. Me mentioning that one witch gets the other's power convince Ozy we should day-lynch, for example. Stating things so everyone is on the same page is a pro-town strategy. It's like what rumox did last game.

[Ganelon]

If the Mass Murderer dies, the other witch should be able to use his power. Unless... @Gyrlander , help us out a bit.

[OzyWho]

Ozy (?) - the buddying tactic would make sense; almost everyone wanted to Lynch me on the first day, himself included. Him not believing I was town made me panic, rendering me vulnerable to a buddying attempt on the second day - his sheriff claim. Unclear for me at this point.

I wish I actually was evil LOL. Great strategy by me!

[Soviet_Love]

It doesn't matter really anymore. But the question was:
If we happen to lynch a mass murderer today - will the other witch be able to kill on Night2? Given that the other witch is not the one who killed on Night1.
If yes then could it be worth considering me not visitng anyone on Night2 so no possible double-kill?

The question popped in my mind at that moment when I asked and I directed it to you because you were posting a lot at that time. Really don't care much about it anymore. I was just trying to describe how frustrating it is that people don't respond

The other witch would only be able to use on alternating nights. So I don't think so. I think that the mass murderer 1 night cooldown would go into effect either way.

On the other hand, if we are dealing with a godfather, then killing the godfather will allow us to go without a night kill (beacuse they have to wait on alternating nights) whereas if we kept the godfather alive there would be another kill.

Also, the Distorted doc/bg could prevent a death, and the Distorted vig might fire at someone. Unclear which he is.

[Ganelon]

On the second night, obviously, assuming that the Mass Murderer used his kill on the first night - we are not even sure if there is a Mass Murderer, mind you.

[Distorted]

How is TPR 50% and citizen is 33%? It is funny because from my perspective, citizen is 50% and TPR is 33% lol

for you yes lol because you have a citizem claim. I am talking about from the view of Ozy, whom claimed sheriff. if he really was sheriff you would think he would investigate the other 2 TPR claims. susp why he doesnt care to address either me or MM or put pressure there.