S-FM 212: Paired Mafia

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

I'm not sure I accept the idea that Yuki's post was at all unusual, but even if I did, you are a pushing a very specific hypothesis. You're supposing that there is a Malicious Savior, that it's Yuki, that I'm Mafia, and that Yuki, as Malicious Savior, would choose his second post to try to reveal himself to his mafia allies discretely. This is way more than one post allows you to suspect. I'm not treating your hypothesis seriously because I'm town and thus know it's wrong, but even from an outsider's perspective it's waaaaaay too far fetched, which makes me suspicious of why you're making it in the first place.

My point is it isnt very specific.

There is a 50% chance for there to be a malicious savior since two roles are paired. This means half of the time a player is able to do what yuki just did. You know for 99.9% or 100% certain right now that it is true or fake, but the rest of us don't. Any player could have rolled these slots, but it would have just happened to be yuki since he is the one who breadcrumbed. It isn't specific to you and him being those roles, but there is a 50% chance for the roles to happen, and the player who got the malicious savior decided to soft claim.

I swear I feel like im taking fucking crazy pills.

[Yukitaka Oni]

@yuki do you have any reads on the game yet?

23:30 PM
Nope. Sleep instead

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

23:30 PM
Nope. Sleep instead

Meh, I'll join you.

We shall continue this another time mattzed, thanks for being awake.

I may be busy, but if the weather continues, my game will probably be canceled and I will be more active. Tootles.

[MattZed]

My point is it isnt very specific.

There is a 50% chance for there to be a malicious savior since two roles are paired. This means half of the time a player is able to do what yuki just did. You know for 99.9% or 100% certain right now that it is true or fake, but the rest of us don't. Any player could have rolled these slots, but it would have just happened to be yuki since he is the one who breadcrumbed. It isn't specific to you and him being those roles, but there is a 50% chance for the roles to happen, and the player who got the malicious savior decided to soft claim.

I swear I feel like im taking fucking crazy pills.

This is sheer moon logic.

You are claiming that, from one fluff post at the start of the game, you can figure out who 2/3 of the scum are. Just sanity check yourself and ask which is more likely: You found the biggest scumslip of all time on page 1 and everyone else missed it, or you've come up with a crazy theory that probably isn't true?

But you still approach the probability incorrectly. You haven't answered "is Malicious Savior Yuki more likely to have made that post than Town (or any other alignment, really) Yuki, and if so, by how much?" If you really think there's a 0% chance a non-MS Yuki would make that post, then I really don't know where to begin with you.

[MattZed]

And as Duckk departs, I'll note for those reading the thread later that my vote against Duckk is not random.

Duckk's train of thought evades logic and common sense. The evidence to support his theory simply doesn't exist, and the fact that he continues to push his theory makes me wonder "is Duckk actually reading this game?" The only way I can see him not realizing his theory is bad is if he doesn't actually care.

And there's the flaw. Town should be concerned about how accurate their reads are. They may have faulty reasoning at times or hunches they can't explain, but their reads should follow plainly from their reasoning. Duckk's doesn't, and it doesn't bother him. I haven't ruled out that he's town simply trying to "stir the pot" before the real stage of the game begins, but he certainly has a lot of explaining to do, and I want to hear it when he gets back.

[Frog]

I'm getting drunk as fuck

Flying like fucj

Follow me here:

Notes on gane: Matt zed I'd call an obv scum on my for objective perspective - slmething Calix used to do like nuts (see that gane where I was 3P and caught her within pg1 and saved her, lol.)

But yeah I'm straight town - MS is exactly the same with that reakext

Duck is pure as fucj. In no world is dicker ever not town. Ever. It's fucing obv.


Titus not being head butting is weird as fuck for me but I like it. I don't think it's alignment I dative at all - I e been therlyfh phases of May where my gane Ganges and this feels pro fir Titus. Ike I'm ducking psyched to see this now. Not up mention our new fans clog. Up with that ace attorney.

I gave a ridiculous TK foil but heh I'll say it for shots and jiggles - no no, it's too dumb, Ir can't be. Fuck that Anys.


I'm devil as fuck. I don't know who to vote but OH yEaA$ MZ

-1v]Marrt Zaed -1/.Staa

[Frog]

I justvtetwevit - I'm sorry I'll proof read this with ehidz

[Frog]

LateeX not kiw

[Frog]

I'm prob at my drunkest normally in ganes at the lament

I'm here- will try to @ everyone her but give nectar to : look up the page, get the post, select the people etc

[Frog]

2 users browsing - spooky ghost come out

[Frog]

This bathroom on the plane is sick

[Frog]

Wrong chat - this is the MZ obv scum game? Yeah

Lol - I want to watch you guys play with me here. But tvh Torus is here and like I can't read her at all - it's both awesome and troubling - but IDGAF - Titus goat either alignment

[SuperJack]

I've only just woke up, but I'm going to catch up once I'm not naked and have got ready. But what I've seen, Duck and Mz fight each other, little bit of fluff from yuki. Titus popped in and Frog is drinking on a plane.

@Frog try not to talk about, and link, other games you are playing xD you may end up accidently break a rule being drunk =)

[Frog]

Test

[MiniZed]

Duck is probably town, I don't see why his play indicates his scum behaviour although it has been a long time.

I think you jumped to the conclusion about MattZed. The vote on me probably does not have as much thought with it as you may assume, Duck. Other then that MattZed seems to be scum-hunting normally, and he did state why he thought you were scum>neutral. They know who their teammates are.

FROG is all over the place. Haven't commented much yet because I have just woken but 1 second.

[MiniZed]

Given that I know I'm town, this leaves 1 scum and 1 Neutral between Duck Yuki Eggy and Titus. Yuki's jokes seemed weird as if he was already trying to state that he was town.

-vote YukitakaOni

[MiniZed]

Titus seems to be more cautious with the few posts they've said. FROG seems to be drunk.

[SuperJack]

Titus seems to be more cautious with the few posts they've said. FROG seems to be drunk.

And this isn't some sort of indication to anything?

And instead, you go and act like a hypocrite, voting for yuki for saying he trying to state he is town, right after you state you are town.

Given that I know I'm town, this leaves 1 scum and 1 Neutral between Duck Yuki Eggy and Titus. Yuki's jokes seemed weird as if he was already trying to state that he was town.

-vote YukitakaOni

[MiniZed]

And this isn't some sort of indication to anything?

And instead, you go and act like a hypocrite, voting for yuki for saying he trying to state he is town, right after you state you are town.

That is a typo which is supposed to say scum. That much is obvious given the way they talk.

It's an RVS vote, and I haven't found myself liking the few posts from both Titus and Yuki. Yuki joking about being scum seems something odd for a town to do right now, even for Yuki. Titus acting more cautious can also be indicative of a TPR trying not to stand out, so I am not going to ignore that possibility either.

Are you reading?

[Eggy]

from what I can see sofar I think duck is town or possibly the jester I will not analyze group 2 right now. Mattzed seems off he calls duck the hester then proceeds to vote him anyway which makes me think he is either scum or neutral if hes neutral he knows that duck is not jester and was just trying to make himself not seem neutral. Unknown is probably town I have decided to always give him the benefit of the doubt because I always have him as scum and more often than not he is town. Yuki is being yuki as far as I can tell seems to always troll anyways so I need more info before I can make up my mind.

Yuki-null
Unknown-null town
Mattzed-scum/neutral
Duck-town/neutral

-vote mattzed

Dont see anyone else being mafia in group 1

[Eggy]

wow im an idiot

[Eggy]

mattzed is not group one

-vote unvote

[Eggy]

uhhh hmmm so yea Titus is null for me didnt notice she was even group one so Ill hold onto my vote for now. Im thinking between yuki or titus on where to place my vote at the moment. But I need to see more from both of them.

[Titus]

Trying to get town read out of activity, when activity is NAI? got em coach.

Why am I mafia, and not mafia or neutral? This looks like a neutral scumslip to me. Neither mafia, neutral, nor town know who everybody is in this setup thus you should not be assuming I am playing from an informed position.

Every town positive and negative role know someone elses role. The only advantage mafia have right now is a name to that paired role.

I don't know anyone else's role?

-vote PleaseLeaveDuckk

[Titus]

uhhh hmmm so yea Titus is null for me didnt notice she was even group one so Ill hold onto my vote for now. Im thinking between yuki or titus on where to place my vote at the moment. But I need to see more from both of them.

Why Yuki?

[MiniZed]

I don't know anyone else's role?

-vote PleaseLeaveDuckk

This is almost the exact same way you played last game. Why do you vote Duck for having some points raised against you, and the only thing you say is that "you don't know anyone else's roles"

Question: is that a neutral soft claim?

[MiniZed]

Why Yuki?

Not really a big fan of you raising question against Eggy's opinion. I hope you have a reason for why you are against a Yuki lynch.

Currently thinking Titus is neutral and Yuki is scum.

[ThePrince]

-The Ducks post about not PL a survivor is something I agree with.
-I did not like Titus post about survivors and millers claiming. Yes, it makes sense because it increases the percentage of hitting mafia/3p but it also increases mafia's chances of hitting a positive utility town role.
-MattZed and Ducks back and forth gave me a positive view of Matt, especially this post on page 2.
-Frog, those drunk posts were funny.

-vote Titus

I do not like the survivor and miller claiming post.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

And as Duckk departs, I'll note for those reading the thread later that my vote against Duckk is not random.

Duckk's train of thought evades logic and common sense. The evidence to support his theory simply doesn't exist, and the fact that he continues to push his theory makes me wonder "is Duckk actually reading this game?" The only way I can see him not realizing his theory is bad is if he doesn't actually care.

And there's the flaw. Town should be concerned about how accurate their reads are. They may have faulty reasoning at times or hunches they can't explain, but their reads should follow plainly from their reasoning. Duckk's doesn't, and it doesn't bother him. I haven't ruled out that he's town simply trying to "stir the pot" before the real stage of the game begins, but he certainly has a lot of explaining to do, and I want to hear it when he gets back.

Evades logic? You can disagree with the read, but it is pretty logical that him calling you scum buddies is a hidden scum sifting to his team.

I am not continuing to push the theory, I am trying to explain it to you. My next yuki post was asking him for his reads.

I care about every game unless I'm neutral killing, if you think I'm posting when I'm very busy as serial killer then fire away.

No shit you haven't ruled out I am town because guess what!!

How the fuck do my reads not follow from my reasoning....
Frog - buddying me , scum lean
Titus - misread post 1, scum lean
Mz - calls me mafia not considering neutral - neutral lean
Yuki - breadcrumb cult - neutral lean.

Obviously wrong on one of yuki/mz but to say you can't follow my logic into reads is a fucking joke. Let's play which bright star will misrepresent duck next

Fuck posting on phones

[Orpz]

Initial post describing joy at recognizing a lot of familiar names, with light banter at MattZed added on for fun.

A few sentences describing my schedule and how long I'll be away at school.

Another sentence related to the game, followed by an unrelated vote.

[Orpz]

-vote ThePrince

[Orpz]

-vote ThePrince

An acknowledgement of mistake.

-unvote

[Orpz]

Before getting to Duckk's most recent post, something I've noticed from the setup spec:

A MILLAR SHOULD NOT CLAIM.

Millars are 3 HP and thus not insta-killed by the night kill. If they claim they are telling the mafia "go look in the other group and you might find a negative utility 1 HP town you can kill." If there's a Sheriff, they already know a Millar exists and you can claim your probably-unique role then if you are unluckily checked. Until then, think of yourself as someone who can take a bullet.

Speaking of which, I'm realizing now that random voting may have been a mistake.

IF YOU HAVE NOT VOTED YET, DO NOT VOTE, BUT INDICATE WHO YOU WOULD VOTE IF IT WAS END OF DAY.

Actors can only hammer and are also 1 HP. If we have one, our random voting will out the actor as being the only person who didn't vote, and if we don't have a doctor to heal them, RIP.

Some more banter at MattZed for not reading the setup, followed by a quote from the setup that states the uniqueness of roles.

Day cycle is 3 days; 48 hour day phase 24 hour night phase.
Mafia share DAY CHAT.
Lynch is decided by majority.
Player's Role and Alignment will be given upon death.
All roles are unique.

[Orpz]

LateeX not kiw

An expression of approval for LaTeX formatting.

[SuperJack]

Not really a big fan of you raising question against Eggy's opinion. I hope you have a reason for why you are against a Yuki lynch.

Currently thinking Titus is neutral and Yuki is scum.

Please just why. Titus didn't say she was against the lynch she was pushing for more reasoning. The idea of the game is to push further to find out who is town who is scum.

Not to just have lynches.

[SuperJack]

Orpz. Is this unique style of posting a way to make you purposely harder to read?

[Orpz]

Sherif
Detector
Agent
Night Kill
Lookout
Serial Killer Abductor
Doctor
Malicious Savior
Consort

The first of a series of daily reminders that Lookout cannot see a bunch of roles.

Overt disagreement with Superjack.

A less hostile sign-off, with a quick promise to catch up at the earliest opportunity.

[MattZed]

-vote ThePrince

Orpz you dolt he's in group 2.

As for things to happen since I left:
I'm actually a big fan of Duckk providing a quick read list now that people have had a chance to check in. He's not off the hook yet for moon logic, but he makes a read list that cites specific things people have been doing, so I'm not scumreading him as strongly as when I signed off last night.

Times like this remind me that Frog has an incredibly infuriating playstyle. Time and again I've seen him enter a game and refuse to give information until the last minute, and he's doing it again here. The only positions he's advanced is that Titus is hard to read, Duckk is obvious town, and I'm obvious scum. And yet he doesn't list the reasoning. How can I tell the difference between a Frog who's town hiding his reasons for supporting Duckk and scum Frog who's trying to pocket an active player? You can't. Right now he's pushing that I'm obv scum for having an "objective perspective," without going into any details of what that is or why it might be a scumtell. Discrediting one of the most vocal members of town so far without explaining why? Yeah, no. Not letting that slide. Frog is a scumlean and I'd be voting him now if he were in group 1.

HOLD. FROG. ACCOUNTABLE.

Eggy needs to read the setup, but him seeming to think Jester is actually a role in the game may have been a non-neutral slip.

Titus should post more substance. Null

Null on Orpz/SJ

ThePrince is reading the game and using their short post for substance. Townlean.

[MattZed]

Some more banter at MattZed for not reading the setup, followed by a quote from the setup that states the uniqueness of roles.

lol I concede this point.

[MattZed]

Off for now. Back in about 7 hours.

[Titus]

This is almost the exact same way you played last game. Why do you vote Duck for having some points raised against you, and the only thing you say is that "you don't know anyone else's roles"

Question: is that a neutral soft claim?

No. I would be outright claiming neutral as neutral.

Second, I have no opinion on a Yuki lynch.

Third, Duck stated something untrue, so I voted him.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

No. I would be outright claiming neutral as neutral.

Second, I have no opinion on a Yuki lynch.

Third, Duck stated something untrue, so I voted him.

It is 100% factually true.
Mafia knows mafia
All town positive know their corresponding negative role
All neutral know the other neutral role
Citizens know nothing

What are you doing this game? I assume you are a tpr trying to play dumb citizen, but since this post revived your bad point, maybe you are just scum

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

@MattZed I make early reads list everygame, you are letting me off for the same type of reads list I gave at the start of my last game where I was traitor. Sad part is you scum read me for my AI stuff...

Zzz I type like 1wpm on mobile so frustrTing

[Eggy]

Why Yuki?

because I have him in my null pile aswell as yourself Im leaning towards duck being town or jester neither warrants a lynch and unknown is also more or less null for me but I do end up pushing his lynch often when he is town and am trying to work on that so you and yuki are my prefered options but I have not seen enough to cast my vote yet

[Eggy]

Orpz you dolt he's in group 2.

As for things to happen since I left:
I'm actually a big fan of Duckk providing a quick read list now that people have had a chance to check in. He's not off the hook yet for moon logic, but he makes a read list that cites specific things people have been doing, so I'm not scumreading him as strongly as when I signed off last night.

Times like this remind me that Frog has an incredibly infuriating playstyle. Time and again I've seen him enter a game and refuse to give information until the last minute, and he's doing it again here. The only positions he's advanced is that Titus is hard to read, Duckk is obvious town, and I'm obvious scum. And yet he doesn't list the reasoning. How can I tell the difference between a Frog who's town hiding his reasons for supporting Duckk and scum Frog who's trying to pocket an active player? You can't. Right now he's pushing that I'm obv scum for having an "objective perspective," without going into any details of what that is or why it might be a scumtell. Discrediting one of the most vocal members of town so far without explaining why? Yeah, no. Not letting that slide. Frog is a scumlean and I'd be voting him now if he were in group 1.

HOLD. FROG. ACCOUNTABLE.

Eggy needs to read the setup, but him seeming to think Jester is actually a role in the game may have been a non-neutral slip.

Titus should post more substance. Null

Null on Orpz/SJ

ThePrince is reading the game and using their short post for substance. Townlean.

lol yes I definately do need to reread the setup I thought there was a jester because I thought you said duck was jester was that a mistake or did I misread? anyway if anything that just makes me think duck is town more. But it also makes me thave to rethink my read on you.

[Titus]

It is 100% factually true.
Mafia knows mafia
All town positive know their corresponding negative role
All neutral know the other neutral role
Citizens know nothing

What are you doing this game? I assume you are a tpr trying to play dumb citizen, but since this post revived your bad point, maybe you are just scum

Last time I checked citizens are town. So, no. All town don't know roles.

Also, negative utility roles are not informed.

Why are you lying?

[Titus]

@Eggy , are you scum with Yuki and Duck?

[SuperJack]

@Eggy , are you scum with Yuki and Duck?

Are you claiming Survivor ?

[MiniZed]

Please just why. Titus didn't say she was against the lynch she was pushing for more reasoning. The idea of the game is to push further to find out who is town who is scum.

Not to just have lynches.

i dont understand why you are defending Titus so much. If I am interpreting something wrong then why can she not say it herself?

Also, that question is the weakest question you can ask. There is obviously a reason you ask, and it doesn't even reflect their own opinion, or put it in a way that they are actually trying to solve the game. Why.

[MiniZed]

-The Ducks post about not PL a survivor is something I agree with.
-I did not like Titus post about survivors and millers claiming. Yes, it makes sense because it increases the percentage of hitting mafia/3p but it also increases mafia's chances of hitting a positive utility town role.
-MattZed and Ducks back and forth gave me a positive view of Matt, especially this post on page 2.
-Frog, those drunk posts were funny.

-vote Titus

I do not like the survivor and miller claiming post.

What makes you disagree? I myself might not be too sure, if we had nothing else to go off of it gets rid of a 3p instead of potentially leaving an enemy. (Side note, what if there are two survivors?)

I agree with not revealing the 3p at this point. Revealing them gives the mafia three confirmed town to hit from a single pool, which is bad for us opposed to a 3p possibly being hit.

Is that all you are going about with your vote then? I don't disagree with it at this point.