S-FM 297: BioMed Industries (Coronavirus Version) - Ladder Game

[S-FM punchy]

Minecraft. Gonna put on some music and chill out

one day ill go back mrmpht.

[S-FM pringles]

one day ill go back mrmpht.

Lotta cool new stuff now

[S-FM punchy]

Lotta cool new stuff now

i prefer the fantasy mods but they were not fully fleshed out. maybe ill get a server again. mrmpht

[S-FM MMXX]

First question I'll address is whether Mireska can be scientist doing a gambit. Feel free to let me know if something is wrong

Can Mireska be scientist rather than infected? (if town, gamethrowing)
If yes:
(1) Infected kills = 4v2
-> Mireska lynched = 4v1
-> Infected hopes to kill = 3v1 or 4v1
-> If even one TPR is still alive, probably sure loss, otherwise likely loss.


(2) Infected does not kill = 5v2
-> Strong chance we lynch Mireska for being confirmed scum, which is basically an insta-loss
-> If Mireska is not lynched, suppose someone is mislynched = 4v2
-> Infected hopes to kill in night = 3v2
-> Mireska lynched = 3v1
-> Infected hopes to kill in in night = 2v1 LYLO/MYLO

So basically the best case scenario is 2v1 LYLO/MYLO. I don't really believe in this

[S-FM MMXX]

First question I'll address is whether Mireska can be scientist doing a gambit. Feel free to let me know if something is wrong

Can Mireska be scientist rather than infected? (if town, gamethrowing)
If yes:
(1) Infected kills = 4v2
-> Mireska lynched = 4v1
-> Infected hopes to kill = 3v1 or 4v1
-> If even one TPR is still alive, probably sure loss, otherwise likely loss.


(2) Infected does not kill = 5v2
-> Strong chance we lynch Mireska for being confirmed scum, which is basically an insta-loss
-> If Mireska is not lynched, suppose someone is mislynched = 4v2
-> Infected hopes to kill in night = 3v2
-> Mireska lynched = 3v1
-> Infected hopes to kill in in night = 2v1 LYLO/MYLO

So basically the best case scenario is 2v1 LYLO/MYLO. I don't really believe in this

Sorry, I guess since the question is about whether the slot is the scientist, wouldn't be Mireska above but actually the original strawberry

[S-FM punchy]

Sorry, I guess since the question is about whether the slot is the scientist, wouldn't be Mireska above but actually the original strawberry

yo man stop being a cold dog. mrmpht this is a simple question. what role are you and what did you do? your apprehension is weird since you made direct-ness a whole concept yesterday

[S-FM punchy]

i already told you i town power read you. i expected a more curt response a la your other ones this game. hmmm i prefer buffets over a la cart. i just dont want to get the vibe that you are middling or fencing

[S-FM MMXX]

Assuming that strawberry is now Mireska / infected:


(1) Mireska was originally doctor
-> Mireska was not roleblocked last night and instead failed infection onto the scientist.


-> (A) We lynch Mireska = 5v1
--> Enter next day (scientist cannot do anything in night) = 5v1
--> If we lynch scientist, we obviously win
--> Mislynch = 4v1
--> Since the doctor is dead, infection will succeed = enter night 3v2
--> Since the doctor is dead and infected knows scientist, kill succeeds
--> Enter day at 2v2
--> Town loses
Like pringles said, MYLO at 5v1


-> (B) We lynch for scientist
--> If scientist lynched, we should win
--> Mislynch = 4v2
--> Since doctor is dead, kill will succeed as the infected knows the scientist
--> Enter next day at 3v2 LYLO, which should then enter either 3v1 or 2v1 MYLO/LYLO


(2) Mireska was originally blood analyst / lab tech
-> Doctor is still alive


-> (A) Mireska lynch scenario the same, except now there is a chance for infections and kills to fail


-> (B) We lynch for scientist
--> Mislynch = 4v2
--> Doctor roleblocks Mireska, who dies of exhaustion
--> Enter next day = 4v1
--> I think this is basically MYLO although doctor does add some complications ofc

[S-FM punchy]

yeah but the point is we need to find out whether mireska is lying or not. and for that to happen we need an actual doctor to out. mrmpht. once they do we have a pie or elimination and win. if you are doctor we need to know if mireska was roleblocked or found scientist. if you are a fakeclaiming scientist and mireska does not die tonight we know you are scientist and not doctor its like making a pb and j

mrmpht. here is the breakdown if you missed it.

[S-FM MMXX]

since you made direct-ness a whole concept yesterday

What do you mean, the talk about HRE?

[S-FM MMXX]

mrmpht. here is the breakdown if you missed it.

I just made a post laying out how things will play out if Mireska is lying, do you disagree with it

[S-FM MMXX]

Unless I'm mistaken, lynching for scientist today gives us an extra lynch attempt at the scientist while lynching Mireska may not, which I guess is what pringles was saying implicitly

[S-FM punchy]

I just made a post laying out how things will play out if Mireska is lying, do you disagree with it

the lie is that mireska didnt kill doctor/was doctor. mrmpht.

[S-FM punchy]

Unless I'm mistaken, lynching for scientist today gives us an extra lynch attempt at the scientist while lynching Mireska may not, which I guess is what pringles was saying implicitly

my understanding is that the doctor is dead. so i would like to find out if thats true and you are unhelpful mrmpht

[S-FM punchy]

let me ask you mmxx. do you think mireska is the type of player to slip a detail like that when they were literally handed the role card that says you will be role blocked by docs mrmpht?

[S-FM punchy]

i think mireska is up-front and fun as a person but i do not take thier personal qualities over the status quo. mrmpht. if the doctor is alive still they die. if the doctor is not its worse. that is the point.

[S-FM MMXX]

let me ask you mmxx. do you think mireska is the type of player to slip a detail like that when they were literally handed the role card that says you will be role blocked by docs mrmpht?

I have no clue, anything's possible in the heat of the moment

Clearly Mireska also forgot that they might hit the scientist, unless you think they knew who the scientist was, which has its own implications

[S-FM punchy]

I have no clue, anything's possible in the heat of the moment

Clearly Mireska also forgot that they might hit the scientist, unless you think they knew who the scientist was, which has its own implications

thats the point mrmpht. you need to claim because it feels like your giving yourself room

[S-FM punchy]

villager girl if im right and the infection takes me i know you can handle this. i made this persona explicitly for this reason. mrmpht i am watching you too

[S-FM punchy]

this is giving me the heebeegeebees and not like the disco band. mrmpht

[S-FM pringles]

Ah k, lets see where we're at

[S-FM pringles]

Unless I'm mistaken, lynching for scientist today gives us an extra lynch attempt at the scientist while lynching Mireska may not, which I guess is what pringles was saying implicitly

Yeah thats basically it. You laid it out well. We could tske the free lynch of Mireska, but it doesnt actually end up benefiting us at all, even if he started as doc

Punchys right though, you gotta claim now

[S-FM pringles]

i think mireska is up-front and fun as a person but i do not take thier personal qualities over the status quo. mrmpht. if the doctor is alive still they die. if the doctor is not its worse. that is the point.

Even if this is the case, its more risky to try lynch Mireska than it is to try to lynch scientist. 2 shots vs 1

[S-FM punchy]

Unless I'm mistaken, lynching for scientist today gives us an extra lynch attempt at the scientist while lynching Mireska may not, which I guess is what pringles was saying implicitly

and there is explicitly a problem with this. a conflict of interest. mrmpht doctor has yet to claim so if my theory is correct. you could be middling here i dont care about your models because anyone townie knows them

[S-FM pringles]

Even if this is the case, its more risky to try lynch Mireska than it is to try to lynch scientist. 2 shots vs 1

Even if doc is dead and Mireska kills someone. 3v2 LYLO, we get a second shot at scientist

5v1 MYLYO only gives us 1 shot at scientist

[S-FM punchy]

i dont read math as townie mrmpht. it makes no sense. maybe thats why we are not scientists

[S-FM pringles]

I have no clue, anything's possible in the heat of the moment

Clearly Mireska also forgot that they might hit the scientist, unless you think they knew who the scientist was, which has its own implications

Yep, for me it honestly makes sense that Mireska may have just forgotten doc can rb and was cocky in the excitement of the moment

I forgot doc could rb myself until someone brought it up (cant remember if it was Krabs or Punchy off of the top of my head)

[S-FM punchy]

Even if doc is dead and Mireska kills someone. 3v2 LYLO, we get a second shot at scientist

5v1 MYLYO only gives us 1 shot at scientist

what is that thing you normally do pringles? when we are strong? mrmpht

[S-FM pringles]

i dont read math as townie mrmpht. it makes no sense. maybe thats why we are not scientists

Yeah none of this end game talk is AI for anyone here

That being said its still useful to know our options

[S-FM pringles]

what is that thing you normally do pringles? when we are strong? mrmpht

I have no idea what you're referring to here lol

[S-FM punchy]

Yeah none of this end game talk is AI for anyone here

That being said its still useful to know our options

yes but we asked for a role and get an empty pizza box. mrmpht. uncool.

[S-FM punchy]

I have no idea what you're referring to here lol

give me one moment mrmpht.

[S-FM punchy]

give me one moment mrmpht.

towntaker

towntaker

[S-FM punchy]

what a stupid phrase.

[S-FM pringles]

TOWN TAKEOVER

TOWN TAKEOVER

TOWN TAKEOVER

[S-FM pringles]

DING DING DING

[S-FM punchy]

oh its takeover. that makes sense

[S-FM pringles]

Sorry its late lol

[S-FM punchy]

Sorry its late lol

i cant tell if your a pringles or not but honestly you seem clear

[IceCreamFan]

Im sleepy af and excited for Final Fantasy 7 Remake

[S-FM MMXX]

pringles, your read on me has moved a lot in the town direction while Quetz (and some extent Krabby) have stayed put with their reads on me. Does this affect your reads at all?

I'm also aware of the possibility that you are scientist trying to pocket me.

I guess Quetz / Krabby can answer this question in reverse if they so choose

[S-FM pringles]

pringles, your read on me has moved a lot in the town direction while Quetz (and some extent Krabby) have stayed put with their reads on me. Does this affect your reads at all?

I'm also aware of the possibility that you are scientist trying to pocket me.

I guess Quetz / Krabby can answer this question in reverse if they so choose

You need to claim

[S-FM pringles]

Like we are doing a mass claim, just out with it

[S-FM pringles]

After MMXX claims Id like pretzelcuatal to claim

[S-FM pringles]

Like yeah my read on you has moved in the town direction but this avoidance to claiming is making me uneasy

[S-FM pringles]

I don't necessarily disagree with it, but it'll be helpful (for everyone I think) to have the logic laid out explicitly

You cant say this, then spell out clearly how next day is basically MLYLO or LYLO, and then dodge claiming

[S-FM MMXX]

Whatever, punchy gets his wish I guess since even you are pressuring me to claim.

I'm doctor. I was really hoping to get more out of Quetz before doing this.

I was tempted to claim lab tech but from the game, I can tell there's a non-trivial chance I would be unable to defend my true claim.

[S-FM MMXX]

As for why punchy was so fixated on hunting me down as TPR, I have no ideal

[S-FM pringles]

Whatever, punchy gets his wish I guess since even you are pressuring me to claim.

I'm doctor. I was really hoping to get more out of Quetz before doing this.

I was tempted to claim lab tech but from the game, I can tell there's a non-trivial chance I would be unable to defend my true claim.

I believe you for now

Pretzel next

[S-FM pringles]

MMXX doc play makes sense. He really didnt wanna claim when in trouble day 1 and effectively fought off the lynch

He could also be scientist. He's a strong player and I could see him making thia move

At the end of the day you gotta make a play based on trust and gut and I trust MMXX is doc