Advanced Mafia Calculus e1 - Page 2

1. ## Re: Advanced Mafia Calculus e1

Originally Posted by Kenny
But with a bet of 9800 you get less than 1% profit on average
Certainly, it depends on your measurement system and your priorities. The difference in E(profit) between 9800 and 250 is only 10. God knows how many bets you'd have to make before you notice the difference in profit between 9800 and 250 given that the variance of the former is so absurdly high, even if E(profit) is 66% higher. It might make more sense to bet less to have a more stable flow of income. Given how low E(profit) will be irrespective of your bet, it's probably not even worth playing.

Things become far less exciting if the bets are bounded lmao.

2. ## Re: Advanced Mafia Calculus e1

Originally Posted by yzb25
If my understanding is correct, that'd mean that when B<9800 the equation radically simplified because the 10,000's are replaceed with "200+B" in the original equation I posted:

E(profit)=0.25*( (B+200)B/(B+200) + (200B)/(2B+300) - B )

---> E(profit)=0.25*( 200B/2B+300 )

The maxima evidently becomes 9800. You can prove this without the graph again by deriving for extremums (realizing there's no extremums) and then evaluating all the endpoints of each function.
shouldn't the value for when the 10K guy dies be:
(B+200)B/(2B+300)

3. ## Re: Advanced Mafia Calculus e1

Originally Posted by aamirus
shouldn't the value for when the 10K guy dies be:
(B+200)B/(2B+300)
why

4. ## Re: Advanced Mafia Calculus e1

Oh right, it's just the proportion of your bet versus the non-dying bettors. The bet of the guy who died is irrelevant there.

5. ## Re: Advanced Mafia Calculus e1

Pls no I have some statistics homework due this Monday and I still haven’t had a look at it lmao

6. ## Re: Advanced Mafia Calculus e1

but this is from a month ago mag you dirty NECROer

7. ## Re: Advanced Mafia Calculus e1

Originally Posted by aamirus
What about the order? With 12 shots and 4 players, on average each player will die 1/4 of the time, sure. But won’t the person going first, on average, pull the trigger the most and therefore get a larger share of the pot?

Or is the order also random?
The Order Is Also Random Generated.. If U Make The Game U Arent Promised The Gun First..

8. ## Re: Advanced Mafia Calculus e1

more necroing!

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