S-FM 245 Which Witch is Which? - GYRLANDER -

[Ganelon]

Let's just talk things out... discuss them. We can still win if we start lynching tomorrow.

[Distorted]

Let's just talk things out... discuss them. We can still win if we start lynching tomorrow.

its either D1 and D2 we lynch

or just D3.

-vote unvote

[Ganelon]

@OzyWho , I can come up with a fairly good reason as to why more than 2 townies could die in 2 days.

Consider the following:

One of the witches is a Grandmaster (hey, it's possible!). If that is so, then we must ensure that none of us ever visit the same player at night.

We can take steps to counter that. However, a Misdirection Witch could force one townie to visit the Grandmaster's target.

Then again, maybe I'm telling you this just so you get paranoid enough to lynch, who knows :P

[Distorted]

@OzyWho , I can come up with a fairly good reason as to why more than 2 townies could die in 2 days.

Consider the following:

One of the witches is a Grandmaster (hey, it's possible!). If that is so, then we must ensure that none of us ever visit the same player at night.

We can take steps to counter that. However, a Misdirection Witch could force one townie to visit the Grandmaster's target.

Then again, maybe I'm telling you this just so you get paranoid enough to lynch, who knows :P

well thikning it through - i get most of my information from voting patterns and lynches. So having 2 lynches is more info. but that also comes to we are literally randoming on day 1 with very little info, especially with new players whom we don't know if that lynch is just what they believe should be done? or a Witch taking the opportunity. So a lynch on day 1 isnt the worst, but isnt the best.

The alternative if NOT lynching is we are gunning on us having a detective that catches a witch TONIGHT (the second night on MYLO we wont really trust an invest claim). So, we are relying on an invest investigating some1, confirming them town or witch, TRUSTING that, then lynching either randomly, or the confirmed target from him to confirm him. We are also relying on the Witches not having a second killing role, and there is a little under a 25% chance for that to be the case. So the not lynching is leaving the game to a 25% guaranteed loss pretty much, while the lynching D1 and D2 (if completely random) gives a 70% chance of hitting a witch.

Not lynching: 25% guaranteed loss ----- 75% chance to play the game. out of that if we lynch randomly D3 we will have a 40% chance hitting a witch, but with the 25% loss that leaves the game at 30% chance to win as town if everything was random and no leads come into play.

Lynching: since lynching will be random starting day 1, in this scenario as well there is 0 leads, that leaves the games at a 70% chance to hit a witch on D2. but a 30% chance of loss. (once again all random if no1 has leads or any influence takes place)

[blinkskater]

The only way to get any information on day 1 is if we get a roleclaim from everyone, yes people will lie but and the vote will still be random but we will have people held accountable for their said claimed roles

[blinkskater]

And when someone who claimed say "cit" gets lynched per say and flips cit it will narrow down them other cit claims etc etc

[Ganelon]

-vote Blinkskater

Let's start with you, then. What's your role?

[Soviet_Love]

Stop accusing people and forcing roles. I thought we already determined a role call day 1 is a bad idea. MM convinced me that it is bad play.

So, of the Witches, there are 3 roles that are night-kill capable (Pyromancer/Arsonist, Grandmaster/MassMurderer, Rational Arcanist/Godfather). There are 9 possible witch roles.

Odds of 2 killing roles:
0.33*0.33 = 0.09 chance that we have two killing role scum.

Odds of 1 killing role:
(0.33*0.67 + 0.67*0.33) = (0.2211 + 0.2211) = 0.4422 chance that we have one killing role scum.

Odds of 0 killing role:
(0.67*0.67) = 0.4489 chance that we have zero killing role scum.

0.09 + 0.4422 + 0.4489 = 0.9811 (just to double check this roughly equals 1, indicating if i'd used fractions or more decimals it would be closer).

We seem to be operating under the assumption that there is a single killing role. We should tree out the possibilities and discuss what our strategy should be in each of the 3 situations indicated above. (Of course, I recognize that not all killing roles are created equally - an arsonist killing role might lead us to falsely believe we are in the 0 killing role world, when we could be in the 1 or even 2 killing role world). Nonetheless, this should frame our discussion.

TL;DR stop being retards accusing people to reveal their roles and discuss what town's optimal play would be in each situation and then we can discuss how to proceed.

[Soviet_Love]

Everyone thus far has assumed we are in the 1 killing role world, which is a 0.4422 and it's actually more probable than not that we are not in this world. I have been one of the players who has posted the least. This indicates to me that some people who have spoken in support of this understanding of our setup are likely witches. Also, and this is a logical leap but it is currently persuasive to me, this leads me to think that we are either in the 2 killing role game or the 0 killing role game. Both possibilities will lead to interesting gameplay, and I would be curious as to what people's thoughts are on optimal town gameplay if we encounter either of these possibilities.

[blinkskater]

-vote Blinkskater

Let's start with you, then. What's your role?

Lol quick get the only guy who claimed a role so far

[Noz_Bugz]

-vote Blinkskater

Let's start with you, then. What's your role?

Blink already claimed Cit

[Noz_Bugz]

Also Do the witches if they have no killing role have any ability to kill besides lynching?

[Soviet_Love]

Can some1 please reply to my well-thought out post, these games drive me crazy. There are 4 other players with town roles, plz halp.

[Noz_Bugz]

Can some1 please reply to my well-thought out post, these games drive me crazy. There are 4 other players with town roles, plz halp.

I think we should work on the killing role number from N1 kills. As right now we are pretty much guessing the amount of killing roles based on percentages. I'm for not role calling D1

[Ganelon]

I'm not in favour of role calling either.

But Blinkskater seems to be, and I would like to know why.

[Gyrlander]

Also Do the witches if they have no killing role have any ability to kill besides lynching?

"The witches both share a night chat and know each others identities. They do not have a factional night kill."

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Hey, I'm back! Going to read, if you got questions for me drop a [MENTION ] marshmallow marshall and I'll answer.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

"The witches both share a night chat and know each others identities. They do not have a factional night kill."

Isn't there also "Witches are guaranteed to get a killing role."? @Gyrlander

[Marshmallow Marshall]

My opinion is that we shouldn't lynch D1 unless we have a solid lead. One misslynch and we are fucked imo

One mislynch and it's a double MYLO (3v2, lynch scum its 2v1 next day, becomes LYLO). Which is why I'm rather against the D1 lynch now. However, as Distorted said, we should define our main suspect so we don't get to D2 without anything done.

[Soviet_Love]

I think we should work on the killing role number from N1 kills. As right now we are pretty much guessing the amount of killing roles based on percentages. I'm for not role calling D1

Right, clearly we're going to have more information tomorrow. I don't think that's the issue.

If there are 2 night killing roles, then we should not lynch today because then if we are wrong (5/7 chance of being wrong) then they will win and it will be 2-2.

If there is 1 night killing role and we lynch today (and lynch wrong) then there will be 3 town and 2 scum.

If there is 0 night killing rules and we lynch today (and lynch wrong) then there will be 4 town and 2 scum.

Does anybody understand what I'm trying to have us discuss?

[Soviet_Love]

Isn't there also "Witches are guaranteed to get a killing role."? @Gyrlander

I don't think we are guaranteed to have a killing role.

[Gyrlander]

Isn't there also "Witches are guaranteed to get a killing role."? @Gyrlander

Negative.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Hi I am just posting to post. You say you want to hear more from me but idk what we can do d1 if people don't claim roles... someone in the last game I played (Rumox) did this and I thought it was really helpful.

So far, the only claim I brought out was blink claiming citizen. Then he later claimed he may be lying, and given that he was Arsonist last game and claimed doctor I'm wary about it. But I really don't get why a town would claim a role.

So far:

Hidden Witch
Hidden Witch
Hidden Witch Hunter
Hidden Witch Hunter
Citizen - Blinkskater
Citizen
Citizen

The BIG difference between the last game and this one is the setup. In the last game, TPRs were in super big amount, actually the biggest amount I had ever seen in a FM game. Mass rolecall was the way to win, because losing TPRs really didn't matter, since they were the biggest part of the Town.

Now blink claimed a role, then "disclaimed" it. He gained some scum points for doing so imo. I'd like more input from him.

-vote Blinkskater

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I don't think we are guaranteed to have a killing role.

Omg what the hell is that big terrible slip XD EXPLAIN YOURSELF SOVIET!!!

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Negative.

No, affirmative... Post #21 of the setup.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

its either D1 and D2 we lynch

or just D3.

-vote unvote

Why? I thought a D2 lynch would be best option, and then see if lynch D3 or D4.

[Gyrlander]

No, affirmative... Post #21 of the setup.

I won't repeat myself.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

The only way to get any information on day 1 is if we get a roleclaim from everyone, yes people will lie but and the vote will still be random but we will have people held accountable for their said claimed roles

Ok my vote stays on you sir.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I won't repeat myself.

(This post is not directed to the host) Holy crap... Does that mean that witches could have no night kill? I think Gyrlander randomized roles. So if the "always a killing witch" wasn't there... it means that there could not be any nightkill! Which means we can not lynch today without fearing people getting murdered all game long.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

-vote Blinkskater

Let's start with you, then. What's your role?

Uhm. Why? He already claimed citizen, but then retracted it somehow.

[Ganelon]

Because he's been doing nothing but reading our posts. I find that suspicious, he's not even contributing to the conversation in any way.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Stop accusing people and forcing roles. I thought we already determined a role call day 1 is a bad idea. MM convinced me that it is bad play.

So, of the Witches, there are 3 roles that are night-kill capable (Pyromancer/Arsonist, Grandmaster/MassMurderer, Rational Arcanist/Godfather). There are 9 possible witch roles.

Odds of 2 killing roles:
0.33*0.33 = 0.09 chance that we have two killing role scum.

Odds of 1 killing role:
(0.33*0.67 + 0.67*0.33) = (0.2211 + 0.2211) = 0.4422 chance that we have one killing role scum.

Odds of 0 killing role:
(0.67*0.67) = 0.4489 chance that we have zero killing role scum.

0.09 + 0.4422 + 0.4489 = 0.9811 (just to double check this roughly equals 1, indicating if i'd used fractions or more decimals it would be closer).

We seem to be operating under the assumption that there is a single killing role. We should tree out the possibilities and discuss what our strategy should be in each of the 3 situations indicated above. (Of course, I recognize that not all killing roles are created equally - an arsonist killing role might lead us to falsely believe we are in the 0 killing role world, when we could be in the 1 or even 2 killing role world). Nonetheless, this should frame our discussion.

TL;DR stop being retards accusing people to reveal their roles and discuss what town's optimal play would be in each situation and then we can discuss how to proceed.

+1. If there are two killing roles, GG already game over, we'll all die and have no chance. I don't think host would allow such a thing for balance concerns. Plus, 9% is rather small. 1 killing role or 0 killing roles is most probable, and we should make the discussion oriented on these two possibilities. This is a very very pro-town post imo.

N.B. Grandmaster (MassMurderer) can miss his first spree, and still has to wait a night before spreeing again. It could lead us to think there was 0 killing roles too.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Because he's been doing nothing but reading our posts. I find that suspicious, he's not even contributing to the conversation in any way.

After reading more, I understand your vote and agree to park mine on him. Now, since we got a few new players and that we're putting blink at L-2, I'll make it clear for everyone: ANY HAMMER VOTE ON BLINK WILL BE INSTANTLY LYNCHED TOMORROW.

This is to prevent witches from turbo lynching blink to end a day, and then hide by saying they are new to the game (assuming there is 1 new player and 1 experienced player in the scum team, which seems plausible), and didn't know it was the hammer vote. To see vote count, check top right of page and click on "Vote Count". If you see someone is at L-1, know that a vote on him will make him DIE.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Right, clearly we're going to have more information tomorrow. I don't think that's the issue.

If there are 2 night killing roles, then we should not lynch today because then if we are wrong (5/7 chance of being wrong) then they will win and it will be 2-2.

If there is 1 night killing role and we lynch today (and lynch wrong) then there will be 3 town and 2 scum.

If there is 0 night killing roles and we lynch today (and lynch wrong) then there will be 4 town and 2 scum.

Does anybody understand what I'm trying to have us discuss?

We definetly should wait a day, given what you've said there.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

@Soviet_Love Even if I townread you for your posts, post #121 makes me suspect you. What did you mean by "[WE] are not guaranteed to get a killing role"?

[Soviet_Love]

Omg what the hell is that big terrible slip XD EXPLAIN YOURSELF SOVIET!!!

I read the setup. It does not say anywhere that we have to have killing roles. And I just explained via a large message the probabilities that we have 2 killing roles, 1 killing role, or 0 killing role.

[Soviet_Love]

@Soviet_Love Even if I townread you for your posts, post #121 makes me suspect you. What did you mean by "[WE] are not guaranteed to get a killing role"?

We as in this game you slut

[Soviet_Love]

@Soviet_Love Even if I townread you for your posts, post #121 makes me suspect you. What did you mean by "[WE] are not guaranteed to get a killing role"?

Bruh I brought to the town's attention we may not have killing roles. And that we should act differently if there are 0, 1, or 2 killing roles. And that THE MOST LIKELY OPTION IS THAT THERE ARE NO KILLING ROLES. THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY OPTION OF THE THREE.

Don't rag on me for saying "we" stuff like this derails the conversation. I'm trying to get town to tree out our (OUR AS IN IN THE GAME) possible set-ups, and what we (AS IN THE TOWN) should do for optimal gameplay in each situation.

[Soviet_Love]

+1. If there are two killing roles, GG already game over, we'll all die and have no chance. I don't think host would allow such a thing for balance concerns. Plus, 9% is rather small. 1 killing role or 0 killing roles is most probable, and we should make the discussion oriented on these two possibilities. This is a very very pro-town post imo.

N.B. Grandmaster (MassMurderer) can miss his first spree, and still has to wait a night before spreeing again. It could lead us to think there was 0 killing roles too.

Yay! This may the first game we've played together where you're originally more pro-town read on me than scum. I like it! Hoepfully we can work together this time around.

I agree in that I think 9% is rather small, but I also didn't think we'd have an arson last game. We should discuss each of them.

Maybe, first, we should think about what is best gameplay if there are 0 killing roles.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Bruh I brought to the town's attention we may not have killing roles. And that we should act differently if there are 0, 1, or 2 killing roles. And that THE MOST LIKELY OPTION IS THAT THERE ARE NO KILLING ROLES. THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY OPTION OF THE THREE.

Don't rag on me for saying "we" stuff like this derails the conversation. I'm trying to get town to tree out our (OUR AS IN IN THE GAME) possible set-ups, and what we (AS IN THE TOWN) should do for optimal gameplay in each situation.

(Replying to the three posts about this topic)

Ok ok all good XD I just wanted to hear that. If you had given some weird and confused reason, I'd have suspected you. Now let's get over this to avoid having a poisoned conversation

Can't stay for now though, sorry

[Soviet_Love]

So just like an original thought - if there are 0 killing roles, then we're not under direct pressure to finish ot quickly. The only problem is some of them may do things to confuse us.

The non-killing roles are:
(1) Misdirection Witch/Witch
(2) Cyromage/Consort
(3) Visionary/Consigliere
(4) Silencer/Blackmailer
(5) Earthbinder/Architect
(6) Telepath/Judge

(1) A normal witch might confuse the town power roles.
(2) A consort isn't that bad because the target is informed of being roleblocked. I imagine we'll be killing people through lynching generally and not trigger happy vigilantes.
(3) A consig doesn't bother us too much. They will learn who the town power roles are. This is only bad if they also have a killing role who can then take them out.
(4) A blackmailer would be the ideal scenario because then we could get someone who can be confirmed town if they can't speak. So if someone isn't speaking tomorrow, don't immediately assume that they are a lurker and a scum. In fact, we should think of a way for us to signal that we are blackmailed. Maybe being online for an extended period and not posting? Idk.
(5) Architect seems funky. I don't know what to think about this.
(6) Judge. If they ever call court, just VOTE INNOCENT ON WHOEVER IT IS. Very important.

The roles only become intimidating if they are paired with a killing role. If we have 0 killing roles, I think our best bet is to just keep inno-ing people and let the town powers work their magic.

[Soviet_Love]

I guess the big thing with Earthbinder(Architect) is that there is a similar role that is town power. So if someone eventually gives 2 people a private night chat, and then claims Architect later, we should be wary considering that there is a 1/9 chance of Earthbinder (scum architect) and a 1/12 chance of a town power architect.

[Soviet_Love]

I guess the big thing with Earthbinder(Architect) is that there is a similar role that is town power. So if someone eventually gives 2 people a private night chat, and then claims Architect later, we should be wary considering that there is a 1/9 chance of Earthbinder (scum architect) and a 1/12 chance of a town power architect.

1/11, I misread and thought a town power could be a citizen.

[Soviet_Love]

1/11, I misread and thought a town power could be a citizen.

1/10, I didn't realize a follower (mason) can only spawn if there is already a mason leader. So that means there's a 1/9 chance of any given witch role, and a 1/10 role of any given town power role (which excluded citizen and mason).

[blinkskater]

The BIG difference between the last game and this one is the setup. In the last game, TPRs were in super big amount, actually the biggest amount I had ever seen in a FM game. Mass rolecall was the way to win, because losing TPRs really didn't matter, since they were the biggest part of the Town.

Now blink claimed a role, then "disclaimed" it. He gained some scum points for doing so imo. I'd like more input from him.

-vote Blinkskater

I never disclaimed it i am citizen

[blinkskater]

Again if we want any reasonable information on day 1 a mass roll claim is the way to go if you want nothing to go off of on day one then don't say a word if you guys want to Lynch me to narrow the citizen pool down then be my guest

[blinkskater]

There's no other way aside from a role claim to even have any suspects at the moment

[blinkskater]

Also by roll clamming on day one anytime powers that claim on day two we could have directly contradicting leads which would give us a witch or a town and by not lynching today odds are our day to Lynch would most likely tell us he guaranteed evil or town

[OzyWho]

well thikning it through - i get most of my information from voting patterns and lynches. So having 2 lynches is more info.

Not lynching: 25% guaranteed loss ----- 75% chance to play the game. out of that if we lynch randomly D3 we will have a 40% chance hitting a witch, but with the 25% loss that leaves the game at 30% chance to win as town if everything was random and no leads come into play.

Lynching: since lynching will be random starting day 1, in this scenario as well there is 0 leads, that leaves the games at a 70% chance to hit a witch on D2. but a 30% chance of loss. (once again all random if no1 has leads or any influence takes place)

I would agree with you that D1 lynch for info is a playable strategy. Especially if we do it based on public role claims as @blinkskater said earlier. Lynch info + Role Claim info = we are gambling on finding the correct evil on D2, with, probably, high chance of success.

However, since @Soviet_Love pointed out that it's basically 50/50 wether evils will have one or none killers - I am confident that abstaining on D1 is still our best option.

If evils would have a gaurenteed killer, then going for that D1 role claim + lynch info could be worth considering. And even then it would be, probably, better to not D1 lynch at all.

I don't think we are guaranteed to have a killing role.

Who is "we"? You and the other Witch?

----
Now, having said all that. I am confident that any provocation to use VOTE on D1 should be seen as supicious activity. Not even to mention actually using VOTE. "yeh we should not vote {votes someone}" - lol?

[OzyWho]

Obviously, my previous post says nothing against everyone to public role claim.
If we detect something like "either he or he is lying" - we can still go for that D1+D2 lynch.