Prelude/ Getting facts right. Everything we build, we build on what we do know for sure. Don't forget about the setup please. Jester is a possibility. Jailor is a possibility. Vet is a possibility. And so on. We know little, and there is a TON of interpretation & mindgames going on, but it helps to stick to what we DO know.
I/About People, or "The Stuff Everyone Wants", now updated with colors and bullshit %'s to fully entertain your mind!
1/ Those Who Seems To Care About Town
SJ: Even Hybrid knows that, we love you for leading town. Repeating myself at this point but for me it's either pro Town or mastermind DH, and I will give rationales against the mastermind tinfoil theories (cf part III). Odds for fun: 86% Town. 9(!)% Pro Exec building TON of town cred to win D2, but so useful atm it's town-aligned Exec, the kind of continue to lead town like a boss if win D2 (Ive seen it happen several times on the mod, Mafia always want to kill those who make the most sense, yet wasting a night kill just to STFU the Exec who already won, basically that's gg for town at this point). Still, town should remember that part if SJ start to jester in the future. 4% Lover blind-siding with Town D1 because why not, would be game theory optimum. 1% Mastermind Triad/Neutral Evil tinfoil theories (don't even)
xramza: You did meaningful contributions that made sense, got a strong Town vibe from you from the start. While this could well be acting (you did not even vote afterall), so far most of your contributions felt like you were trying to make sense. So 59% Town 41% Else atm. Would be interested reading more from you.
Otakudeepweb: Because your contributions are actually making sense and I feel you paid attention to what has been said, you're one of the strongest town lean I've got atm. 71% Town, 29% Idk. Bold statement considering I don't know how you play, but as things objectively are atm, I liked the fact you tried to put your bit of reasoning into the shitstorm, while you could have chosen to just play dumb with Hybrid/MM/Scvchoochoo and get away with it. So far I respect that.
MM: I could put a wall of quote off you but TDL did it already, that's enough tunnel imo. I maintain you're acting overall townish, you seem to really try to contribute, maybe you try too hard, maybe not. For now I believe not. 69% Town, 26% Neutral Benign, 5% Neut evil/Triad (seems very unlikely atm) so safe D1 by my book.
2/ Those I Don't Know
Dr Unknown & mrtrophywife: It's good to see you started to help town. Gut feeling is I need to read more of you both. For exemple, could you list every player in the game and make some commentary on how do you feel about each? We need to hear more from you before nightfall. Even if you just say "I don't know about most", you doing that will actually help the town. So please. 100% idk yet
TDL: Got a slight town vibe from the effort in post #489, nice post in itself, but doesn't explain the tunneling, if you put that much work into MM you could surely share thoughts about the other players. Exec also comes to mind but it would be too obvious imo considering SJ respecting him and me respecting SJ. So 35% Town 65% Else atm, need to keep posting to gain town points.
Hybrid: Had a wall of quote but would add lenght for nothing, so long story short, if it's Triad play and he manages to survive days with this rate of shitpost I'll /bow. My mind would be blown. A bit toxic to town but not enough to lynch d1 imo. Atm for fun: 30% Jester, 28% any other Neutral, 23% Town setting up some meta play on a level I can't understand (Medic flip would be hilarous imo, as atm there is almost zero chance Maf will target him at night) 19% Triad "too scmumy to scum, also im obv jester rofl", still a decent possibility but not over 19% imo
Mesk: totally unreadeable but well, I believe you have lynch immunity D1 anyway. Didn't contribute much (less than other games I've seen with you in bragging Citizen) but still. Your vote is okay to me imo, so is the play with Hybrid. Might be biased but atm 98% unreadeable, 2% DH mastermind tinfoil. Still +1 kudo for the iso help
3/ Current lynchpool
RLVG still contributed the least. Not knowing how hard is his RL issue is actually hintering us. If he just can't play it's wasted pressure, but regarding the game and not any meta consideration, the reason for being in lynchpool is obvious
Scvmurderer: Contributions resume to one-liners and voting the obvious. Scum lean by my book atm, basically saying "I'm here I try to help" but not making sense, not speaking his mind. You better give us something better or I'll consider switch my vote to you, Mesk & Hybrid posts may not make any sense but I can see sense in voting you atm.
II/ About dreams, or "Meta, macro, and concrete: layers seen by an outsider"
First part was about people. Now I wanted to discuss few things about the game itself. I'll do my best to make it short. Perhaps I'm not the only one to think about those things, so I think it may be worth my time.
1/ "Meta" is vague
There shouldn't be meta in Mafia, ideally we should all be entierely new persons at the beginning of each game. I am an entierely new person, Dr Unknown too. Almost everybody else seems to have history. Felt the need to write about this because I picked up somewhere a thing about "Hybrid is setting up his meta", or was it about SJ, it doesn't matter anyway.
Obviously it's not an ideal world, there IS a meta in any game, sometimes very simple (tic tac toe I start I win GG) sometimes very deep, especially in games involving player's own personality (I think about Poker but also of the game we're playing) and the meta can complexify almost endlessly thanks to game theory followed by wifom ("I know that he knows that I know, so" type of reasonings)
Can't avoid the fact you regulars have your own meta. And personal meta is kinda different. Honestly idk how much breaks the game if we get to the point where we must account with probabilities like "He may be acting like this so the next time he plays like this we won't see it coming", "setting up the future" stuff.
For the sake of my mental health I won't go deeper in that kind of considerations. If anything,I believe it draw us away from the real stuff: the game itself. I think even for regulars, it would be hard to deal with this kind of meta play, so imagine us newcomers.
I'm sure there are already things we aren't able to read between the lines, and that's fine, but it would be kind of you, or at least the town-aligned lot of you, to point out any meta related thing you though could be relevant but could not be seen or thought by newcomers. As we can't get away from meta, and don't need to as it's actually adding layers and flavor. But only thing we care about in the end is: okay I read the game, now is there informations relevant to this game anywhere else?
In short, I'm not asking you guys to share meta reads of anything or anyone, just to all to keep in mind there is different levels of play in this game atm and sometimes a little explaination could help to narrow the gap, should someone feel didactic. Afterall clarity profits town, I believe we can at least agree on this.
III/ About tinfoils and game theory, or "TL;DR is so scummy of a concept, don't wait for it"
Evoqued earlier "DH tinfoil theories", I'll try to go get straight to the point. (Yes I'll try!)
We're playing an incomplete information game. It should be "very incomplete", as I say in prelude the only thing known for sure is Setup. Let's put meta aside for a moment, and keep two examples in mind. Me and SJ (<3), and Mesk & Hybrid couple.
I know very little of SJ, SJ know next to nothing about me (started gathering bits already tho =)). I think he spotted a somewhat analytic mind in the gamelaunch thread and was genuine in his reasons voting me earlier. I believe he was right to be wary typically because ke knows this game is about "very incomplete" information and every bit of info is helping while building intrepretations. This game and especially d1 is all about the story we told each other and our interpretation on each story, said by who and how. Obviously there is more to know than just the setup, you got to put reads on people and try to build an historic, watching for patterns, at two levels at least: in and out of the game. In the game it's kinda straightworward, out of the game is more tricky. It's where regular players will seek their edge, in a very similar fashion to poker: regulars knows their game theory, it's more of less the same for all so when fighting between each other they got to be creative, and to do that properly they first need history of their opponents.
Return on topic: everything we know so far, are assumptions. And the setup. But everything else is uncertain. SJ could be DH. Hybrid could be derp cop or DH or whatever. Mesk could be DH or whatever. I could be DH or whatever. If you start humble and tell yourself everybody is a good player, which you should when you have little to none info on people and which SJ actually did, you got to be paranoïd. Don't even need to be town to be paranoïd atm, as lovers & Triad are in the dark atm. It's the only reasonable stance: accepting everything is just stories and interpretation.
While cautiousness is fair from a rational pov, paranoïa pushed too hard it's actually hindering reason. Reason need at least a tiny bit of solid ground to start building meaningful ideas. That's why I purposely chose to put the meta aside and judge people mostly on things that seems objective to me: what relates to the game DIRECTLY. That's the setup. The fact reasonable discussion is helping town. The fact deception is generally hurting town even if there's advanced plays with town deception.
That's what was behind my reasoning for poking afk/least contributors. Also for poking people who made little to no sense, or acting deceptive in some way (our good Hybrid). And for taking meaningful contribution at "near face value".
Because now's what matters. Not the last game, not the next one. Not even day two. This is day one, so reasonable contributors must be given town cred, I see little reason why we should not. And that's whatever their alignment.
Helz in the guide section summed it up far better than me: rationales are the prime stuff we're looking after here. That's what's helping town. So please keep that fact in mind and leave aside the tinfoils theories. "Mastermind DH" is definitely possible, yes, but how good is focusing on such far away possibility when it's actually D1, DH doesn't even know his partner.
Focus on what is instead of what could be! Tomorrow will be another day, when for sure quotes will be pulled of D1. In fact quotes will be pulled of D1 the whole game, so present matters. And it's simple. People making discussion happen are the one helping. Now, and after. Real alignment is irrelevant atm, only Host has perfect information about who's who. What we're after is good behavior, that's the basis you people are judged on for now. Obv it's still open to interpretation, but far more reasonable than jumping on every tinfoil theory there is.
Is there is a mastermind, by definition we won't know it until it's too late anyway.
So to finish: really don't forget words aren't the only thing making sense here. Everything's up to interpretation. Words, but also lack of words, votes, picked quotes etc.
Yeah there is shitpost, yeah there is deception, but again, obviously everyone will be trying to appear town-aligned for now, by differents ways. All I'm saying is, posting feel lists and sharing our thoughts are the best thing we can do for town atm.
So Scvmurderer don't be surprised I want to hear far more from you. Voted you because it seemed like you didn't really paid attention to what has been said, and it's slightly scummy to tempo the day and give the town nothing but "Hybrid is scummy."
WE ALL GOT THAT, GO ON ABOUT THE OTHERS