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  1. ISO #51

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/wiki/Mountainous
    The most default vanilla vs Vanilla. If you want win rates, Mafiascum wiki is the place to search.

    Vanilla + 1 cop = https://www.mafiauniverse.com/wiki/Cop_Setups
    Vanilla + 1 Vigi = same as above with the cop, except 1 additional citizen



    Those are the most standard setups.

    Hope that helps
    The "mountainous" setup backs the current arrangement though. Without PRs, it suggests there should be 12 town for 3 mafia. Our setup has 9 town for 3 mafia but extra lynches.

    Their setup demands town wins only 3/7 lynches against mafia, while ours demands town wins 3/6.
    Quote Originally Posted by Blinkstorteddd02 View Post
    naz, he's claiming to have been at your house last night and infected you. I know u were drunk but PLEASE try as hard as you can to remember... That burning you felt the next morning when you went pee was from me, not him.

  2. ISO #52

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    Quote Originally Posted by Kenny View Post
    I tried looking a bit for the source where I've seen that, and while I couldn't find it, I found some other numbers on the mafiascum wiki (named "Numbers, Part 1"), suggesting completely different odds with random behavior. I myself don't agree with their numbers (they're saying 4-1 results in a 25% town win rate, objectively with random pickings I'm getting 47% however, as one example), but I remembered something else.

    This 50-50 rate for 9-3 does not assume random votes, but a 50% success rate in lynching scum. I.e. the town would win once 3 scum are lynched, and the scum would win once 3 town are lynched. 2 town + 2 scum lynches puts one at 3-1.

    The actual odds for a random lynch to be scum are actually lower than the odds of a random lynch being town. Sorry for that misinformation.
    In terms of raw odds, the current arrangement is certainly scumsided. Granted, it's normal for raw odds to be quite scumsided, to a point.
    Quote Originally Posted by Blinkstorteddd02 View Post
    naz, he's claiming to have been at your house last night and infected you. I know u were drunk but PLEASE try as hard as you can to remember... That burning you felt the next morning when you went pee was from me, not him.

  3. ISO #53

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    Quote Originally Posted by yzb25 View Post
    In terms of raw odds, the current arrangement is certainly scumsided. Granted, it's normal for raw odds to be quite scumsided, to a point.
    I haven't bothered to do the full computation, but I'd safely estimate the odds to be below 30% for town
    Last edited by yzb25; January 7th, 2020 at 07:04 AM. Reason: Pussied out on my last estimate
    Quote Originally Posted by Blinkstorteddd02 View Post
    naz, he's claiming to have been at your house last night and infected you. I know u were drunk but PLEASE try as hard as you can to remember... That burning you felt the next morning when you went pee was from me, not him.

  4. ISO #54

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    Here is done EV math on a lot of setups if y'all interested:
    https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php...The_EV_Project
    Quote Originally Posted by yzb25 View Post
    I haven't bothered to do the full computation, but I'd safely estimate the odds to be around 30% for town
    Interesting.
    Because, for example, White Flag's EV value is close to 50%. However - the actual win rate for Town is close to 30%:
    https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php...g_(Open_Setup)

    This setup is quite unorthodox though.
    Effectively 3 EoD's in 1 day for 2 days - EoD's typically give more info than anything else except flips.
    Anti-votes being a thing, town core and reads lists are encouraged to establish earlier than usual.
    The top townie is for sure living till Day3 - highly unusual.

    Yeah, I do think the mechanics help town.
    But we will see I hope.

  5. ISO #55

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    Here is done EV math on a lot of setups if y'all interested:
    https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php...The_EV_Project

    Interesting.
    Because, for example, White Flag's EV value is close to 50%. However - the actual win rate for Town is close to 30%:
    https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php...g_(Open_Setup)

    This setup is quite unorthodox though.
    Effectively 3 EoD's in 1 day for 2 days - EoD's typically give more info than anything else except flips.
    Anti-votes being a thing, town core and reads lists are encouraged to establish earlier than usual.
    The top townie is for sure living till Day3 - highly unusual.

    Yeah, I do think the mechanics help town.
    But we will see I hope.
    Do you believe raw odds under or over estimate a town's actual odds? Do you believe it depends on the setup?
    Quote Originally Posted by Blinkstorteddd02 View Post
    naz, he's claiming to have been at your house last night and infected you. I know u were drunk but PLEASE try as hard as you can to remember... That burning you felt the next morning when you went pee was from me, not him.

  6. ISO #56

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    I'm guessing a major issue with trying to balance setups is a general lack of data. 7 games is not enough to get a reliable statistical trend lol
    Quote Originally Posted by Blinkstorteddd02 View Post
    naz, he's claiming to have been at your house last night and infected you. I know u were drunk but PLEASE try as hard as you can to remember... That burning you felt the next morning when you went pee was from me, not him.

  7. ISO #57

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    Quote Originally Posted by yzb25 View Post
    Do you believe raw odds under or over estimate a town's actual odds? Do you believe it depends on the setup?
    Idk tbh

    If you're interested in setup balancing, this is probably your best source:
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...-%28by-Apoc%29

    At the end of the day, mafia require 4 mislynches to win and town requires 3 lynches to win.
    Sounds fair to me, the game is decided by the play of the players and with no team needing to feel like the underdog.


    Probably this one has a lot about balance too, though more about general setup designing: https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...by-mhsmith0%29

  8. ISO #58

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    @yzb25
    I think these 2 setups show greatly how much players don't care if the EV balance is shifted slightly one way or the other:
    https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showth...rum-Mafia-(9P)
    https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showth...per-Basic-(7P)
    They are identical except one has 2 more citizens than the other. But nobody seems to care, because at the end of the day - everyone got a fair chance at winning and everyone got a game.
    Somehow, the fact that one setup is easier/harder for either alignment than the other - people seem to not care about it. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    Having said that.
    The default is:
    # mislynches for scum to win = # scum + 1
    Which is exactly what you have here.
    Last edited by OzyWho; January 7th, 2020 at 08:14 AM.

  9. ISO #59

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    I personally feel setups are passable so long as town and mafia have, at the very least, a 30% chance of winning. Idm if a setup leans one way or the other. In fact, I think skewed setups are interesting in their own right.
    Quote Originally Posted by Blinkstorteddd02 View Post
    naz, he's claiming to have been at your house last night and infected you. I know u were drunk but PLEASE try as hard as you can to remember... That burning you felt the next morning when you went pee was from me, not him.

  10. ISO #60

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    Quote Originally Posted by yzb25 View Post
    Do you believe raw odds under or over estimate a town's actual odds? Do you believe it depends on the setup?
    W.r.t. the white flag odds as well, in my opinion one can explain this heightened mafia winrate with all those calculations being done with the expectation of every player having an equal chance to be lynched.

    In practice this expectation isn't met most of the time. Town members are generally easier to lynch, for once because the mafia is organized and knows their own - when there are 3 of them this means 2 more uninformed votes are required to get a mafia member lynched, compared to a town member.

    The other reason I see stems from the mafia having no need to push their own opinion with their vote. They have an interest in joining or supporting any train there is as long as it's not aimed at their own. The town on the other hand needs to push their own opinion to have a fair chance, as giving the lynch decision away could potentially lead to it falling in the hands of a player who wants the majority lynched and wins with every lynch decision they willingly take.

    Avoiding those two issues would probably require a town mayor who completely handles all decisions entirely on his own or a town that somehow decides all lynches in full unison without getting influenced by any individual opinions, and without allowing that to happen through unorganized votes.

  11. ISO #61

  12. ISO #62

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    Update: Altered the anti-vote slightly. It now removes 2 votes rather than 1.

    Just wanna make sure it does a good job building that town core ;-)

    This should be the last change I make.
    Quote Originally Posted by Blinkstorteddd02 View Post
    naz, he's claiming to have been at your house last night and infected you. I know u were drunk but PLEASE try as hard as you can to remember... That burning you felt the next morning when you went pee was from me, not him.

  13. ISO #63

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    Quote Originally Posted by yzb25 View Post
    If the game feels heavily town-sided once it's played, we can always reconsider the numbers. For a good bribe, I can hook you up with the alignment you prefer.

    Oh wait no MM DONT READ THIS THIS IS GROWN UP TALK.
    Lol

    Kenny is right, by the way. Heal votes < doctor, especially since they only last for two days. I could get behind the addition of a Citizen, but not much more, imo. Town should have a success rate that is quite close to 50% (not exactly 50% though, that's asking too much). The healvotes do balance that, though, because if the heals are successful, they buy another mislynch to the town. The setup might be slightly scum-favored as it is right now, but not to the point of being concerning imo. Adding a citizen would probably make it slightly town-favored; at this point, it's up to the Host.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

  14. ISO #64

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    @yzb25
    I think these 2 setups show greatly how much players don't care if the EV balance is shifted slightly one way or the other:
    https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showth...rum-Mafia-(9P)
    https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showth...per-Basic-(7P)
    They are identical except one has 2 more citizens than the other. But nobody seems to care, because at the end of the day - everyone got a fair chance at winning and everyone got a game.
    Somehow, the fact that one setup is easier/harder for either alignment than the other - people seem to not care about it. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    Having said that.
    The default is:
    # mislynches for scum to win = # scum + 1
    Which is exactly what you have here.
    Exactly. We used to do that here too, when we had too many/not enough signs : we just added/removed Citizens to setups at the last second. There is always a margin of error to setup balance, and I'd say yzb's view on 30% chance of winning is quite accurate. 30% odds are pretty borderline and should be avoided, but it's not dramatic. Plus, this setup has a special vote system that hasn't really been tested. If the game turns out to be very wild and strange because of it, the Experimental label might be to consider here, but for now I think it's pretty good like this.

    The anti-vote being buffed is a pro-town thing, by the way. That's a good change.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

  15. ISO #65

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    I'm free to host this for the next few months
    Quote Originally Posted by Blinkstorteddd02 View Post
    naz, he's claiming to have been at your house last night and infected you. I know u were drunk but PLEASE try as hard as you can to remember... That burning you felt the next morning when you went pee was from me, not him.

  16. ISO #66

  17. ISO #67

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    This setup is already next in the queue list.
    Yep! You can host right after Stealth's game.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

  18. ISO #68

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    This setup is already next in the queue list.
    o :3
    Quote Originally Posted by Blinkstorteddd02 View Post
    naz, he's claiming to have been at your house last night and infected you. I know u were drunk but PLEASE try as hard as you can to remember... That burning you felt the next morning when you went pee was from me, not him.

  19. ISO #69

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    @yzb25 , are you willing to host this game right now, or do you wish to postpone it? It's your turn on the Queue.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

  20. ISO #70

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    Quote Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall View Post
    @yzb25 , are you willing to host this game right now, or do you wish to postpone it? It's your turn on the Queue.
    I'm still down to host this.

    Is there a guide or smth for noob hosts explaining how to close a thread and stuff? :3
    Quote Originally Posted by Blinkstorteddd02 View Post
    naz, he's claiming to have been at your house last night and infected you. I know u were drunk but PLEASE try as hard as you can to remember... That burning you felt the next morning when you went pee was from me, not him.

  21. ISO #71

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    Quote Originally Posted by yzb25 View Post
    I'm still down to host this.

    Is there a guide or smth for noob hosts explaining how to close a thread and stuff? :3
    There's a big clickable banner on the top of all subsections of the FM section, and it links to this : https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showth...l=1#post828747. Plenty of lovely threads with guides, guidelines, rules, gameplay tricks, ladder, all of that stuff. You should find most of what you want to have FM-wise in this thread. As for the Host's Guide, here it is! (link)
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

 

 

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