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  1. #41

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    I really would have preferred what I said in #34.

    Let's compare 3 mafias vs 4 mafias games, assuming 3 mislynches D1+D2:



    3 Mafias game:
    Day # Townie Count # Mafia Count #
    1 9 3
    2 6 3
    3 4 2
    4 3 1

    4 Mafias game:
    Day # Townie Count # Mafia Count #
    1 9 4
    2 6 4
    3 4 3
    4 3 2
    5 2 1


    It's not only that the 2nd one seems prettier on paper (like, always town count vs mafia count difference is 1 at LYLO in almost all setups, but not here. Here its 2)

    It's also about the fact that the setup is vanilla vs vanilla, except all the special mechanics, are HEAVILY TOWN FAVORED. That should be grounds enough to add that 1 mafia slot. The game doesn't change much - the town still can afford exactly 3 mislynches.

    @Marshmallow Marshall @yzb25
    I wish you guys reconsidered it.
    If the game feels heavily town-sided once it's played, we can always reconsider the numbers. For a good bribe, I can hook you up with the alignment you prefer.

    Oh wait no MM DONT READ THIS THIS IS GROWN UP TALK.
    Quote Originally Posted by Blinkstorteddd02 View Post
    naz, he's claiming to have been at your house last night and infected you. I know u were drunk but PLEASE try as hard as you can to remember... That burning you felt the next morning when you went pee was from me, not him.

  2. #42

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    9-3 is calculated to be balanced with 1 lynch and 1 kill happening every cycle. This setup here however seems to have 2 lynches instead of 1 happening the first two days. That lynch difference is enough to throw off the balance and warrant a more scum favoring rate, from the what I can see here.

  3. #43

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    Quote Originally Posted by Kenny View Post
    9-3 is calculated to be balanced with 1 lynch and 1 kill happening every cycle. This setup here however seems to have 2 lynches instead of 1 happening the first two days. That lynch difference is enough to throw off the balance and warrant a more scum favoring rate, from the what I can see here.
    It would be very helpful if you could send me balanced vanilla-ish setups you know that are at least comparable to this game.

    That goes to anyone else, too.

    I thought 9-3 was balanced with PRs. And the addition of PRs is generally pro town. Raw 9-3 odds are scumsided.
    Quote Originally Posted by Blinkstorteddd02 View Post
    naz, he's claiming to have been at your house last night and infected you. I know u were drunk but PLEASE try as hard as you can to remember... That burning you felt the next morning when you went pee was from me, not him.

  4. #44

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    Currently, towns need to get at least 3/6 lynches right to win. They need a 50% success rate.
    Quote Originally Posted by Blinkstorteddd02 View Post
    naz, he's claiming to have been at your house last night and infected you. I know u were drunk but PLEASE try as hard as you can to remember... That burning you felt the next morning when you went pee was from me, not him.

  5. #45

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    Quote Originally Posted by yzb25 View Post
    Currently, towns need to get at least 3/6 lynches right to win. They need a 50% success rate.
    If we could see the required success rate in other balanced vanilla setups that could glean strong insight
    Quote Originally Posted by Blinkstorteddd02 View Post
    naz, he's claiming to have been at your house last night and infected you. I know u were drunk but PLEASE try as hard as you can to remember... That burning you felt the next morning when you went pee was from me, not him.

  6. #46

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    Healvotes, in comparison to normal doctors, also seem heavily scumfavoring to me.

    First of, not sure if I just missed it, but I think there's no mention of the scum being excluded from the anon voting process there. Gotta add that to the setup, or noone is of the heal targets is ever gonna get attacked.

    Then, taking away a doctor also takes away one town player's ability to claim tpr, or to cc. Direct CCs are a townfavoring mechanic.

    On top of that, healvotes are much easier to predict than one indivdual player's choice. You are dealing with a majority here, and this majority even has to make sure to not wildly vote different players, as that would result in the final target having to be chosen by the host.

  7. #47

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    Quote Originally Posted by yzb25 View Post
    It would be very helpful if you could send me balanced vanilla-ish setups you know that are at least comparable to this game.

    That goes to anyone else, too.

    I thought 9-3 was balanced with PRs. And the addition of PRs is generally pro town. Raw 9-3 odds are scumsided.
    Raw 9-3 with 1 kill and 1 lynch happening every cycle, and everyone voting entirely randomly with no deduction whatsoever, is mathematically balanced to an exact 50-50 rate.

    I can't send you any comparable setups with double lynches the first 2 days anyway. I've never played something like that myself.

  8. #48

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    Quote Originally Posted by yzb25 View Post
    If we could see the required success rate in other balanced vanilla setups that could glean strong insight
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/wiki/Mountainous
    The most default vanilla vs Vanilla. If you want win rates, Mafiascum wiki is the place to search.

    Vanilla + 1 cop = https://www.mafiauniverse.com/wiki/Cop_Setups
    Vanilla + 1 Vigi = same as above with the cop, except 1 additional citizen



    Those are the most standard setups.

    Hope that helps

  9. #49

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    Quote Originally Posted by Kenny View Post
    Raw 9-3 with 1 kill and 1 lynch happening every cycle, and everyone voting entirely randomly with no deduction whatsoever, is mathematically balanced to an exact 50-50 rate.

    I can't send you any comparable setups with double lynches the first 2 days anyway. I've never played something like that myself.
    I tried looking a bit for the source where I've seen that, and while I couldn't find it, I found some other numbers on the mafiascum wiki (named "Numbers, Part 1"), suggesting completely different odds with random behavior. I myself don't agree with their numbers (they're saying 4-1 results in a 25% town win rate, objectively with random pickings I'm getting 47% however, as one example), but I remembered something else.

    This 50-50 rate for 9-3 does not assume random votes, but a 50% success rate in lynching scum. I.e. the town would win once 3 scum are lynched, and the scum would win once 3 town are lynched. 2 town + 2 scum lynches puts one at 3-1.

    The actual odds for a random lynch to be scum are actually lower than the odds of a random lynch being town. Sorry for that misinformation.
    Last edited by Kenny; January 7th, 2020 at 06:02 AM.

  10. #50

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    Quote Originally Posted by Kenny View Post
    Healvotes, in comparison to normal doctors, also seem heavily scumfavoring to me.

    First of, not sure if I just missed it, but I think there's no mention of the scum being excluded from the anon voting process there. Gotta add that to the setup, or noone is of the heal targets is ever gonna get attacked.

    Then, taking away a doctor also takes away one town player's ability to claim tpr, or to cc. Direct CCs are a townfavoring mechanic.

    On top of that, healvotes are much easier to predict than one indivdual player's choice. You are dealing with a majority here, and this majority even has to make sure to not wildly vote different players, as that would result in the final target having to be chosen by the host.
    I largely agree with what you have to say here. The healvote is much weaker than a real doctor.

    Also, the healvote results are announced, fyi, so it won't ever even stop the NK. Given the results are announced, I have to allow scums to win the healvote, otherwise the vote could be used for confirmation shenanigans.

    I honestly think the most town-favoured aspect of the mechanic is that naiive scums might just vote eachother, a shady scum might win by RNG, then he'll basically be outed LOL.
    Quote Originally Posted by Blinkstorteddd02 View Post
    naz, he's claiming to have been at your house last night and infected you. I know u were drunk but PLEASE try as hard as you can to remember... That burning you felt the next morning when you went pee was from me, not him.

  11. #51

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/wiki/Mountainous
    The most default vanilla vs Vanilla. If you want win rates, Mafiascum wiki is the place to search.

    Vanilla + 1 cop = https://www.mafiauniverse.com/wiki/Cop_Setups
    Vanilla + 1 Vigi = same as above with the cop, except 1 additional citizen



    Those are the most standard setups.

    Hope that helps
    The "mountainous" setup backs the current arrangement though. Without PRs, it suggests there should be 12 town for 3 mafia. Our setup has 9 town for 3 mafia but extra lynches.

    Their setup demands town wins only 3/7 lynches against mafia, while ours demands town wins 3/6.
    Quote Originally Posted by Blinkstorteddd02 View Post
    naz, he's claiming to have been at your house last night and infected you. I know u were drunk but PLEASE try as hard as you can to remember... That burning you felt the next morning when you went pee was from me, not him.

  12. #52

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    Quote Originally Posted by Kenny View Post
    I tried looking a bit for the source where I've seen that, and while I couldn't find it, I found some other numbers on the mafiascum wiki (named "Numbers, Part 1"), suggesting completely different odds with random behavior. I myself don't agree with their numbers (they're saying 4-1 results in a 25% town win rate, objectively with random pickings I'm getting 47% however, as one example), but I remembered something else.

    This 50-50 rate for 9-3 does not assume random votes, but a 50% success rate in lynching scum. I.e. the town would win once 3 scum are lynched, and the scum would win once 3 town are lynched. 2 town + 2 scum lynches puts one at 3-1.

    The actual odds for a random lynch to be scum are actually lower than the odds of a random lynch being town. Sorry for that misinformation.
    In terms of raw odds, the current arrangement is certainly scumsided. Granted, it's normal for raw odds to be quite scumsided, to a point.
    Quote Originally Posted by Blinkstorteddd02 View Post
    naz, he's claiming to have been at your house last night and infected you. I know u were drunk but PLEASE try as hard as you can to remember... That burning you felt the next morning when you went pee was from me, not him.

  13. #53

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    Quote Originally Posted by yzb25 View Post
    In terms of raw odds, the current arrangement is certainly scumsided. Granted, it's normal for raw odds to be quite scumsided, to a point.
    I haven't bothered to do the full computation, but I'd safely estimate the odds to be below 30% for town
    Last edited by yzb25; January 7th, 2020 at 07:04 AM. Reason: Pussied out on my last estimate
    Quote Originally Posted by Blinkstorteddd02 View Post
    naz, he's claiming to have been at your house last night and infected you. I know u were drunk but PLEASE try as hard as you can to remember... That burning you felt the next morning when you went pee was from me, not him.

  14. #54

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    Here is done EV math on a lot of setups if y'all interested:
    https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php...The_EV_Project
    Quote Originally Posted by yzb25 View Post
    I haven't bothered to do the full computation, but I'd safely estimate the odds to be around 30% for town
    Interesting.
    Because, for example, White Flag's EV value is close to 50%. However - the actual win rate for Town is close to 30%:
    https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php...g_(Open_Setup)

    This setup is quite unorthodox though.
    Effectively 3 EoD's in 1 day for 2 days - EoD's typically give more info than anything else except flips.
    Anti-votes being a thing, town core and reads lists are encouraged to establish earlier than usual.
    The top townie is for sure living till Day3 - highly unusual.

    Yeah, I do think the mechanics help town.
    But we will see I hope.

  15. #55

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    Here is done EV math on a lot of setups if y'all interested:
    https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php...The_EV_Project

    Interesting.
    Because, for example, White Flag's EV value is close to 50%. However - the actual win rate for Town is close to 30%:
    https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php...g_(Open_Setup)

    This setup is quite unorthodox though.
    Effectively 3 EoD's in 1 day for 2 days - EoD's typically give more info than anything else except flips.
    Anti-votes being a thing, town core and reads lists are encouraged to establish earlier than usual.
    The top townie is for sure living till Day3 - highly unusual.

    Yeah, I do think the mechanics help town.
    But we will see I hope.
    Do you believe raw odds under or over estimate a town's actual odds? Do you believe it depends on the setup?
    Quote Originally Posted by Blinkstorteddd02 View Post
    naz, he's claiming to have been at your house last night and infected you. I know u were drunk but PLEASE try as hard as you can to remember... That burning you felt the next morning when you went pee was from me, not him.

  16. #56

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    I'm guessing a major issue with trying to balance setups is a general lack of data. 7 games is not enough to get a reliable statistical trend lol
    Quote Originally Posted by Blinkstorteddd02 View Post
    naz, he's claiming to have been at your house last night and infected you. I know u were drunk but PLEASE try as hard as you can to remember... That burning you felt the next morning when you went pee was from me, not him.

  17. #57

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    Quote Originally Posted by yzb25 View Post
    Do you believe raw odds under or over estimate a town's actual odds? Do you believe it depends on the setup?
    Idk tbh

    If you're interested in setup balancing, this is probably your best source:
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...-%28by-Apoc%29

    At the end of the day, mafia require 4 mislynches to win and town requires 3 lynches to win.
    Sounds fair to me, the game is decided by the play of the players and with no team needing to feel like the underdog.


    Probably this one has a lot about balance too, though more about general setup designing: https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...by-mhsmith0%29

  18. #58

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    @yzb25
    I think these 2 setups show greatly how much players don't care if the EV balance is shifted slightly one way or the other:
    http://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showth...rum-Mafia-(9P)
    http://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showth...per-Basic-(7P)
    They are identical except one has 2 more citizens than the other. But nobody seems to care, because at the end of the day - everyone got a fair chance at winning and everyone got a game.
    Somehow, the fact that one setup is easier/harder for either alignment than the other - people seem to not care about it. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    Having said that.
    The default is:
    # mislynches for scum to win = # scum + 1
    Which is exactly what you have here.
    Last edited by OzyWho; January 7th, 2020 at 08:14 AM.

  19. #59

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    I personally feel setups are passable so long as town and mafia have, at the very least, a 30% chance of winning. Idm if a setup leans one way or the other. In fact, I think skewed setups are interesting in their own right.
    Quote Originally Posted by Blinkstorteddd02 View Post
    naz, he's claiming to have been at your house last night and infected you. I know u were drunk but PLEASE try as hard as you can to remember... That burning you felt the next morning when you went pee was from me, not him.

  20. #60

    Re: S-FM Tokens (12P)

    Quote Originally Posted by yzb25 View Post
    Do you believe raw odds under or over estimate a town's actual odds? Do you believe it depends on the setup?
    W.r.t. the white flag odds as well, in my opinion one can explain this heightened mafia winrate with all those calculations being done with the expectation of every player having an equal chance to be lynched.

    In practice this expectation isn't met most of the time. Town members are generally easier to lynch, for once because the mafia is organized and knows their own - when there are 3 of them this means 2 more uninformed votes are required to get a mafia member lynched, compared to a town member.

    The other reason I see stems from the mafia having no need to push their own opinion with their vote. They have an interest in joining or supporting any train there is as long as it's not aimed at their own. The town on the other hand needs to push their own opinion to have a fair chance, as giving the lynch decision away could potentially lead to it falling in the hands of a player who wants the majority lynched and wins with every lynch decision they willingly take.

    Avoiding those two issues would probably require a town mayor who completely handles all decisions entirely on his own or a town that somehow decides all lynches in full unison without getting influenced by any individual opinions, and without allowing that to happen through unorganized votes.

 

 

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