CONSPIRACY [ROUND 2]
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  1. #1

  2. #2

    Re: CONSPIRACY [ROUND 2]

    Do we all understand what MattZed said about the probabilities at the end of the last game? From the point of view that any one of you also rolls inno, consider the chances of there being a conspiracy at 50/50 right off the bat and not 4/6. The odds that you are the only inno and that everyone is inno are exactly equal. I just want to make sure we all start off on the same page in case the latter scenario is what we're dealing with.
    Quote Originally Posted by Necroplant View Post
    Mafia will be very interesting for the duration of this sentence, and lots of individuals' tummys will hurt from laughing so hard. I've had to fall out of my chair and lie on the ground before, as it was just too painful to laugh LOL.

  3. #3

    Re: CONSPIRACY [ROUND 2]

    Huh that should be 8/10 and not 4/6. I forgot there are more of us playing this time around. Doesn't change the rest of what I said though.
    Quote Originally Posted by Necroplant View Post
    Mafia will be very interesting for the duration of this sentence, and lots of individuals' tummys will hurt from laughing so hard. I've had to fall out of my chair and lie on the ground before, as it was just too painful to laugh LOL.

  4. #4

    Re: CONSPIRACY [ROUND 2]

    IM INNOOOO I SWEARRRRR
    Quote Originally Posted by AnassRhamur View Post
    Please don't post in the punished players section if you're not involved. Consider this a warning from Thugnificent. You got one Thug ticket. Collect 3 more of those and i'll have to issue a Thug Infraction. Collect 3 Thug Infractions and you get 1 Thug Misdemeanor Charge.

    Spoiler : :
    Citizen, Agent, Citizen, Vigilante, Citizen, Godfather, Citizen, Citizen, Voter, Elder, Mafioso, BackUpSleuth, Escort, Mafioso, Detective, Citizen, Citizen, Tailor, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, TheJoker, Citizen, LadyGaga, Mafioso, Winston Wolfe, Detective, Citizen, Citizen, Masquerader

  5. #5

    Re: CONSPIRACY [ROUND 2]

    lol theres no conspiracy this time, unless mattzed is an absolute cuck and made the whole game me against everyone else again. -.-
    Quote Originally Posted by AnassRhamur View Post
    Please don't post in the punished players section if you're not involved. Consider this a warning from Thugnificent. You got one Thug ticket. Collect 3 more of those and i'll have to issue a Thug Infraction. Collect 3 Thug Infractions and you get 1 Thug Misdemeanor Charge.

    Spoiler : :
    Citizen, Agent, Citizen, Vigilante, Citizen, Godfather, Citizen, Citizen, Voter, Elder, Mafioso, BackUpSleuth, Escort, Mafioso, Detective, Citizen, Citizen, Tailor, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, TheJoker, Citizen, LadyGaga, Mafioso, Winston Wolfe, Detective, Citizen, Citizen, Masquerader

  6. #6

    Re: CONSPIRACY [ROUND 2]

    TRUST MESK TIME, INNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
    Quote Originally Posted by AnassRhamur View Post
    Please don't post in the punished players section if you're not involved. Consider this a warning from Thugnificent. You got one Thug ticket. Collect 3 more of those and i'll have to issue a Thug Infraction. Collect 3 Thug Infractions and you get 1 Thug Misdemeanor Charge.

    Spoiler : :
    Citizen, Agent, Citizen, Vigilante, Citizen, Godfather, Citizen, Citizen, Voter, Elder, Mafioso, BackUpSleuth, Escort, Mafioso, Detective, Citizen, Citizen, Tailor, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, TheJoker, Citizen, LadyGaga, Mafioso, Winston Wolfe, Detective, Citizen, Citizen, Masquerader

  7. #7

    Re: CONSPIRACY [ROUND 2]

    no but in all seriousness, if there is another inno out there, please consider the fact that if im claiming inno then theres no conspiracy
    Quote Originally Posted by AnassRhamur View Post
    Please don't post in the punished players section if you're not involved. Consider this a warning from Thugnificent. You got one Thug ticket. Collect 3 more of those and i'll have to issue a Thug Infraction. Collect 3 Thug Infractions and you get 1 Thug Misdemeanor Charge.

    Spoiler : :
    Citizen, Agent, Citizen, Vigilante, Citizen, Godfather, Citizen, Citizen, Voter, Elder, Mafioso, BackUpSleuth, Escort, Mafioso, Detective, Citizen, Citizen, Tailor, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, TheJoker, Citizen, LadyGaga, Mafioso, Winston Wolfe, Detective, Citizen, Citizen, Masquerader

  8. #8

    Re: CONSPIRACY [ROUND 2]

    That is a fallacy Mesk. The odds of flipping heads don't increase above 50% on your next flip just because you have flipped tails 1000 times in a row. The odds of you being the only inno person don't magically change because the gods of chance know that's what happened last time. But I'm sure you know this...

    Now imagine MattZed has a d10 to determine the setup.

    Green-d10-dice.png

    Each side of that d10 represents one of ten scenarios. In scenarios 1-8 someone that is not you is inno and you are a conspirator. In scenario 9, you are innocent and everyone else is a conspirator. In scenario 10 everyone is inno. Upon seeing that you are inno, as you claim to be, you can deduce that he either rolled a 9 or a 10. The odds of the dice landing on either of those is equal.

    Sure the odds of there being a conspiracy appear greater for an outside observer, but the scenario in which any one of us is inno by ourselves is just as likely as the scenario in which we are all inno. That's why someone said earlier that voting based on the probabilities is dumb. I'm going to look for psychological clues that someone here is lying. That's already a strike against you Mesk because IDK whether or not your statement was meant to lull me into a false complacency.
    Quote Originally Posted by Necroplant View Post
    Mafia will be very interesting for the duration of this sentence, and lots of individuals' tummys will hurt from laughing so hard. I've had to fall out of my chair and lie on the ground before, as it was just too painful to laugh LOL.

  9. #9

    Re: CONSPIRACY [ROUND 2]

    Quote Originally Posted by thedougler View Post
    That is a fallacy Mesk. The odds of flipping heads don't increase above 50% on your next flip just because you have flipped tails 1000 times in a row. The odds of you being the only inno person don't magically change because the gods of chance know that's what happened last time. But I'm sure you know this...

    Now imagine MattZed has a d10 to determine the setup.

    Green-d10-dice.png

    Each side of that d10 represents one of ten scenarios. In scenarios 1-8 someone that is not you is inno and you are a conspirator. In scenario 9, you are innocent and everyone else is a conspirator. In scenario 10 everyone is inno. Upon seeing that you are inno, as you claim to be, you can deduce that he either rolled a 9 or a 10. The odds of the dice landing on either of those is equal.

    Sure the odds of there being a conspiracy appear greater for an outside observer, but the scenario in which any one of us is inno by ourselves is just as likely as the scenario in which we are all inno. That's why someone said earlier that voting based on the probabilities is dumb. I'm going to look for psychological clues that someone here is lying. That's already a strike against you Mesk because IDK whether or not your statement was meant to lull me into a false complacency.
    ........ i understood nothing that you said. all i know is, im innocent. you people really don't do a good job of convincing at all lol. if your an inno you should take innocent claims seriously. this was what was lacking last game and why i was able to determine i was the only innocent. no one even remotely acted like it was possible for another innocent.

    idgaf about odds but if you wanna discuss them then what are the odds that mattzed is a mean mean person towards and made it twice Mesk Vs. Everyone else.
    Quote Originally Posted by AnassRhamur View Post
    Please don't post in the punished players section if you're not involved. Consider this a warning from Thugnificent. You got one Thug ticket. Collect 3 more of those and i'll have to issue a Thug Infraction. Collect 3 Thug Infractions and you get 1 Thug Misdemeanor Charge.

    Spoiler : :
    Citizen, Agent, Citizen, Vigilante, Citizen, Godfather, Citizen, Citizen, Voter, Elder, Mafioso, BackUpSleuth, Escort, Mafioso, Detective, Citizen, Citizen, Tailor, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, TheJoker, Citizen, LadyGaga, Mafioso, Winston Wolfe, Detective, Citizen, Citizen, Masquerader

  10. #10

    Re: CONSPIRACY [ROUND 2]

    Quote Originally Posted by Mesk514 View Post
    ........ i understood nothing that you said. all i know is, im innocent. you people really don't do a good job of convincing at all lol. if your an inno you should take innocent claims seriously. this was what was lacking last game and why i was able to determine i was the only innocent. no one even remotely acted like it was possible for another innocent.

    idgaf about odds but if you wanna discuss them then what are the odds that mattzed is a mean mean person towards and made it twice Mesk Vs. Everyone else.
    lmfao, awkward moment when you have to get high and reread what is said to realize that what you're asking has already been explained....

    but seriously, mattzed didnt use a whatever the fuck you called. he clearly hand picked, i don't care what he says.
    Quote Originally Posted by AnassRhamur View Post
    Please don't post in the punished players section if you're not involved. Consider this a warning from Thugnificent. You got one Thug ticket. Collect 3 more of those and i'll have to issue a Thug Infraction. Collect 3 Thug Infractions and you get 1 Thug Misdemeanor Charge.

    Spoiler : :
    Citizen, Agent, Citizen, Vigilante, Citizen, Godfather, Citizen, Citizen, Voter, Elder, Mafioso, BackUpSleuth, Escort, Mafioso, Detective, Citizen, Citizen, Tailor, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, TheJoker, Citizen, LadyGaga, Mafioso, Winston Wolfe, Detective, Citizen, Citizen, Masquerader

  11. #11

    Re: CONSPIRACY [ROUND 2]

    I think if MattZed lacked integrity as an FM host other people would have refused to sign on to this one. I'm sure everything is sufficiently randomized. In any case I think claiming to be innocent is kind of pointless. It's just a perfunctory claim conspirators and innos alike would both make, so I see no point in making it at all.
    Quote Originally Posted by Necroplant View Post
    Mafia will be very interesting for the duration of this sentence, and lots of individuals' tummys will hurt from laughing so hard. I've had to fall out of my chair and lie on the ground before, as it was just too painful to laugh LOL.

  12. #12

    Re: CONSPIRACY [ROUND 2]

    but if he didnt hand pick and in fact did random, im not lucky enough to pop up twice on a random generator so idgaf. the fact that you're disputing the all telling truthful mesk worries me.
    Quote Originally Posted by AnassRhamur View Post
    Please don't post in the punished players section if you're not involved. Consider this a warning from Thugnificent. You got one Thug ticket. Collect 3 more of those and i'll have to issue a Thug Infraction. Collect 3 Thug Infractions and you get 1 Thug Misdemeanor Charge.

    Spoiler : :
    Citizen, Agent, Citizen, Vigilante, Citizen, Godfather, Citizen, Citizen, Voter, Elder, Mafioso, BackUpSleuth, Escort, Mafioso, Detective, Citizen, Citizen, Tailor, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, TheJoker, Citizen, LadyGaga, Mafioso, Winston Wolfe, Detective, Citizen, Citizen, Masquerader

  13. #13

    Re: CONSPIRACY [ROUND 2]

    ugh, you make this game so easy.

    im voting theres a conspiracy. im out.
    Quote Originally Posted by AnassRhamur View Post
    Please don't post in the punished players section if you're not involved. Consider this a warning from Thugnificent. You got one Thug ticket. Collect 3 more of those and i'll have to issue a Thug Infraction. Collect 3 Thug Infractions and you get 1 Thug Misdemeanor Charge.

    Spoiler : :
    Citizen, Agent, Citizen, Vigilante, Citizen, Godfather, Citizen, Citizen, Voter, Elder, Mafioso, BackUpSleuth, Escort, Mafioso, Detective, Citizen, Citizen, Tailor, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, TheJoker, Citizen, LadyGaga, Mafioso, Winston Wolfe, Detective, Citizen, Citizen, Masquerader

  14. #14

    Re: CONSPIRACY [ROUND 2]

    theres no way if youre a citizen that you don't take an inno claim seriously. you say conspirators will claim innocent, but thats not true, they'd rather try and act it then rather claim it.
    Quote Originally Posted by AnassRhamur View Post
    Please don't post in the punished players section if you're not involved. Consider this a warning from Thugnificent. You got one Thug ticket. Collect 3 more of those and i'll have to issue a Thug Infraction. Collect 3 Thug Infractions and you get 1 Thug Misdemeanor Charge.

    Spoiler : :
    Citizen, Agent, Citizen, Vigilante, Citizen, Godfather, Citizen, Citizen, Voter, Elder, Mafioso, BackUpSleuth, Escort, Mafioso, Detective, Citizen, Citizen, Tailor, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, TheJoker, Citizen, LadyGaga, Mafioso, Winston Wolfe, Detective, Citizen, Citizen, Masquerader

  15. #15

    Re: CONSPIRACY [ROUND 2]

    Quote Originally Posted by AnassRhamur View Post
    Please don't post in the punished players section if you're not involved. Consider this a warning from Thugnificent. You got one Thug ticket. Collect 3 more of those and i'll have to issue a Thug Infraction. Collect 3 Thug Infractions and you get 1 Thug Misdemeanor Charge.

    Spoiler : :
    Citizen, Agent, Citizen, Vigilante, Citizen, Godfather, Citizen, Citizen, Voter, Elder, Mafioso, BackUpSleuth, Escort, Mafioso, Detective, Citizen, Citizen, Tailor, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, TheJoker, Citizen, LadyGaga, Mafioso, Winston Wolfe, Detective, Citizen, Citizen, Masquerader

  16. #16

    Re: CONSPIRACY [ROUND 2]

    Quote Originally Posted by Mesk514 View Post
    but if he didnt hand pick and in fact did random, im not lucky enough to pop up twice on a random generator so idgaf. the fact that you're disputing the all telling truthful mesk worries me.
    I don't know if you're familiar with Wilmer McLean. The first battle of the American Civil War was fought partially on his farm, and despite him packing up and moving to avoid the war, in 1865 troops comandeered his home and it was used as a meeting place where Robert E. Lee surrendered to Ulysses Grant, bringing the war to an end. "The war began in my front yard and ended in my front parlor," he was reported to have said.

    Of the 112 men who died constructing the Hoover dam, the last to die, Patrick Tierney, was the son of the first to die, J. G. Tierney.

    The Mongols under Kublai Khan twice tried to invade Japan, and both times had their fleets destroyed by typhoons.

    The point is coincidences happen and are actually pretty common. How many times does someone call you when you were just thinking about that person, or you hear the song stuck in your head on the radio? The odds of you being the only innocent twice in a row here is 1/60, which is actually pretty strong. There's also the chance that you're innocent along with everyone else right now, which brings it even higher.
    Quote Originally Posted by Necroplant View Post
    Mafia will be very interesting for the duration of this sentence, and lots of individuals' tummys will hurt from laughing so hard. I've had to fall out of my chair and lie on the ground before, as it was just too painful to laugh LOL.

  17. #17

    Re: CONSPIRACY [ROUND 2]

    ......are you arguing that I'm the only citizen here.... I swear that's shat it seems like
    Quote Originally Posted by AnassRhamur View Post
    Please don't post in the punished players section if you're not involved. Consider this a warning from Thugnificent. You got one Thug ticket. Collect 3 more of those and i'll have to issue a Thug Infraction. Collect 3 Thug Infractions and you get 1 Thug Misdemeanor Charge.

    Spoiler : :
    Citizen, Agent, Citizen, Vigilante, Citizen, Godfather, Citizen, Citizen, Voter, Elder, Mafioso, BackUpSleuth, Escort, Mafioso, Detective, Citizen, Citizen, Tailor, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, Citizen, TheJoker, Citizen, LadyGaga, Mafioso, Winston Wolfe, Detective, Citizen, Citizen, Masquerader

  18. #18

  19. #19

    Re: CONSPIRACY [ROUND 2]

    Quote Originally Posted by Mesk514 View Post
    ......are you arguing that I'm the only citizen here.... I swear that's shat it seems like
    Think about what you're saying right now. Why would I try to convince you there is a conpiracy? To whose benefit would that even be?

    Quote Originally Posted by SuperJack View Post
    Mesk is into. I'm into so no consoiriacy.
    You made the same typo twice. This hurts my autism >.<

    You seem pretty sure of yourself on this. The only people with any kind of certainty about anything this early in the game are conspirators.
    Quote Originally Posted by Necroplant View Post
    Mafia will be very interesting for the duration of this sentence, and lots of individuals' tummys will hurt from laughing so hard. I've had to fall out of my chair and lie on the ground before, as it was just too painful to laugh LOL.

  20. #20

 

 

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