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[QUOTE=MattZed;660238]Since only two people, at most, will be converted, optimal town play to make things as best as you can for town. If you lynch cult, then you're on the road to victory, and if you get converted then you will have hopefully established yourself as a town leader who can then lead cult to victory.

Only 25% of the town, at most, is getting converted. If you're optimizing how to win as cult, you're trying to win an unlikely victory.[/QUOTE]

And cue game where no cult is lynched and they win day 4. :P

Originally Posted by MattZed

Since only two people, at most, will be converted, optimal town play to make things as best as you can for town. If you lynch cult, then you're on the road to victory, and if you get converted then you will have hopefully established yourself as a town leader who can then lead cult to victory.

Only 25% of the town, at most, is getting converted. If you're optimizing how to win as cult, you're trying to win an unlikely victory.

And cue game where no cult is lynched and they win day 4. :P

[QUOTE=Quick;660184]What do you think of my 7v1 idea?[/QUOTE]

Idk I think 9 is fine, it just needs a role that can either kill at night or prevent conversions

Originally Posted by Quick

What do you think of my 7v1 idea?

Idk I think 9 is fine, it just needs a role that can either kill at night or prevent conversions

[QUOTE=Quick;660176]I was thinking about this last night in bed. In this game, Scum hunting in the traditional sense is not even optimal since everyone is subject to change alignment. It lends itself to playing much more defensively and thinking about playing the game as both Town and Scum.[/QUOTE]

Which was part of my point.

Originally Posted by Quick

I was thinking about this last night in bed. In this game, Scum hunting in the traditional sense is not even optimal since everyone is subject to change alignment. It lends itself to playing much more defensively and thinking about playing the game as both Town and Scum.

Which was part of my point.

[QUOTE=Gyrlander;660056]PTB there is scum hunting, you know. If you just think of town as random lynchers then of course yoi're going to get Bad results.[/QUOTE]

Even with scum hunting it favors the cult leader. Day 1 will surely be a mislynch. Day 2 you convert whomever was seen as town leader day one and then just sheep their vote. Boom day 3 you pretty much have it on lock.

Scum hunting is great but without invest or any tpr the scum can just kick back, relax, and hope someone puts a bigger target on their back. Look at mm similar concept.

Scum only lost bc of a turbo lynch at the end in a 1v2 situation. This is likely to have multiple teammates.

Originally Posted by Gyrlander

PTB there is scum hunting, you know. If you just think of town as random lynchers then of course yoi're going to get Bad results.

Even with scum hunting it favors the cult leader. Day 1 will surely be a mislynch. Day 2 you convert whomever was seen as town leader day one and then just sheep their vote. Boom day 3 you pretty much have it on lock.

Scum hunting is great but without invest or any tpr the scum can just kick back, relax, and hope someone puts a bigger target on their back. Look at mm similar concept.

Scum only lost bc of a turbo lynch at the end in a 1v2 situation. This is likely to have multiple teammates.

[QUOTE=MattZed;660054][MENTION=27821]PowersThatBe[/MENTION], I still don't see the point of your calculations, although you are missing the fact that the Cult Leader cannot convert if a cultist was lynched that day.[/QUOTE]

Word, I did forget about that.


The point is, there is a huge margin for cultists to run the table. Basically, you need something to make them not be able to run away with the game in my opinion.

Like the chances to even lynch 1 cultist is very low in comparison. You're more likely to ML than not. Especially if you convert the strongest town read.

[COLOR="#00FFFF"]You could have all the players pm you at EOD or night their strongest town read, and the player with the largest number of votes, that person is immune at night from being converted. No one will know who it is, and they wont know, only scum will know who it is because they failed to convert them. Since there's no town confirm roles, or invest roles, this just seems imbalanced in favor the scum[/COLOR]


The calculations were to show you hard numbers, since there's been some questions about your saves not being balanced (no shade swear to god). Just feels like it's missing something to stop the cultists from taking over. Like it's good they cant convert if a cultist is hit, but they have 75% chance of not getting hit, especially if you pick the biggest town read to be converted. Then it gives scum even more chance to win imo.

Originally Posted by MattZed

@PowersThatBe , I still don't see the point of your calculations, although you are missing the fact that the Cult Leader cannot convert if a cultist was lynched that day.

Word, I did forget about that.


The point is, there is a huge margin for cultists to run the table. Basically, you need something to make them not be able to run away with the game in my opinion.

Like the chances to even lynch 1 cultist is very low in comparison. You're more likely to ML than not. Especially if you convert the strongest town read.

You could have all the players pm you at EOD or night their strongest town read, and the player with the largest number of votes, that person is immune at night from being converted. No one will know who it is, and they wont know, only scum will know who it is because they failed to convert them. Since there's no town confirm roles, or invest roles, this just seems imbalanced in favor the scum


The calculations were to show you hard numbers, since there's been some questions about your saves not being balanced (no shade swear to god). Just feels like it's missing something to stop the cultists from taking over. Like it's good they cant convert if a cultist is hit, but they have 75% chance of not getting hit, especially if you pick the biggest town read to be converted. Then it gives scum even more chance to win imo.

[QUOTE=MattZed;660049]I think the fact that I have people encouraging changing the balance in both directions is a good sign.
[MENTION=27821]PowersThatBe[/MENTION], I'm not really sure where your calculations are going.[/QUOTE]

[COLOR="#EE82EE"]Right now, if you think about it. Just by himself the cultist leader is 88% chance likely to not die day 1.

Day 2 he only drops a couple of % points, but gains a vote against, so actually his rate of survival increases, slightly.
[/COLOR]
[COLOR="#FFFF00"]
1/9= 11% of the vote 7 votes to lynch [B][14.28%][/B]
2/8= 25% of the vote 5 votes to lynch [B] [40%][/B]
3/7= 42% of the vote 4 votes to lynch [B] [75%] [/B]
4/6= 66.66% of the vote 4 votes to lynch [B][100%][/B] [/COLOR]

[COLOR="#FFFFFF"]the right side numbers are the %'s of cult to votes needed to lynch ratio. Starting at day 2 his votes is worth 25% of total player population and 40% of the votes needed to lynch. Day 3 he controls 42% of the population but 75% of the votes need to lynch. By day 4 he controls 66% of the population and 100% of the vote to lynch. [/COLOR]

[COLOR="#FFFFFF"]As you can see. If he successfully recruits every night and none of them die. He controls a large portion of the vote beginning at day 3.

Also, if you were to look at it this way. [/COLOR]

[COLOR="#FFFFFF"]Day 1 = 1/1 = 100% chance of losing game for cult.[/COLOR] [COLOR="#800080"]1/9 = 11.11% controls 14% of vote though [/COLOR]
[COLOR="#FFFFFF"]Day 2 = 1/2 = 50% chance of losing game for cult. [/COLOR] [COLOR="#800080"]2/8 = 25% controls 40% of the vote though[/COLOR]
[COLOR="#FFFFFF"]Day 3 = 1/3 = 33% chance of losing game for cult. [/COLOR] [COLOR="#800080"]3/7 = 42% controls 75% of the vote though [/COLOR]
[COLOR="#FFFFFF"]Day 4 = no chance because they control the votes silly.[/COLOR] [COLOR="#800080"]HAHAHAHAHAHA[/COLOR]
[COLOR="#FFFFFF"]
*These numbers represent if somehow town figured it down to 1 of the cult being the leader by magic.

So basically. You have upper 80% chance of not being lynched every day, then your vote controlled power increases exponentially each day.

So while the chances of town hitting a scum increase as the scum increases. The vote power is really what you should be paying attention to. [/COLOR]

[COLOR="#FFFFFF"]
Let's assume town kills 1 scum a day: Minus day 1. [/COLOR]

[COLOR="#800080"]Day 1: 1/9 = 11.11% and 14% of the vote
Day 2: 2/8 = 25% and 40% of the vote
Day 3: 2/7 = 28% and 50% of the vote
Day 4: 2/6 = 33% and 50% of the vote
Day 5: 2/5 = 40% and 66.66% of the vote
Day 6: 2/4 = 50% and 66.66% of the vote[/COLOR]

[COLOR="#FFFFFF"]So even if they kill 1 scum a day starting day 2, without getting the cult leader. By day 6 cult still wins because they control a larger portion of the vote. Worst case scenario they come to a tie situation. in which case there is only a 25% chance the cult leader would be hit on day 6 by RNG.



What i comes down to ultimately is that this save really favors the lone scum. [/COLOR]

Originally Posted by MattZed

I think the fact that I have people encouraging changing the balance in both directions is a good sign.
@PowersThatBe , I'm not really sure where your calculations are going.

Right now, if you think about it. Just by himself the cultist leader is 88% chance likely to not die day 1.

Day 2 he only drops a couple of % points, but gains a vote against, so actually his rate of survival increases, slightly.


1/9= 11% of the vote 7 votes to lynch [14.28%]
2/8= 25% of the vote 5 votes to lynch [40%]
3/7= 42% of the vote 4 votes to lynch [75%]
4/6= 66.66% of the vote 4 votes to lynch [100%]

the right side numbers are the %'s of cult to votes needed to lynch ratio. Starting at day 2 his votes is worth 25% of total player population and 40% of the votes needed to lynch. Day 3 he controls 42% of the population but 75% of the votes need to lynch. By day 4 he controls 66% of the population and 100% of the vote to lynch.

As you can see. If he successfully recruits every night and none of them die. He controls a large portion of the vote beginning at day 3.

Also, if you were to look at it this way.

Day 1 = 1/1 = 100% chance of losing game for cult. 1/9 = 11.11% controls 14% of vote though
Day 2 = 1/2 = 50% chance of losing game for cult. 2/8 = 25% controls 40% of the vote though
Day 3 = 1/3 = 33% chance of losing game for cult. 3/7 = 42% controls 75% of the vote though
Day 4 = no chance because they control the votes silly. HAHAHAHAHAHA

*These numbers represent if somehow town figured it down to 1 of the cult being the leader by magic.

So basically. You have upper 80% chance of not being lynched every day, then your vote controlled power increases exponentially each day.

So while the chances of town hitting a scum increase as the scum increases. The vote power is really what you should be paying attention to.


Let's assume town kills 1 scum a day: Minus day 1.

Day 1: 1/9 = 11.11% and 14% of the vote
Day 2: 2/8 = 25% and 40% of the vote
Day 3: 2/7 = 28% and 50% of the vote
Day 4: 2/6 = 33% and 50% of the vote
Day 5: 2/5 = 40% and 66.66% of the vote
Day 6: 2/4 = 50% and 66.66% of the vote

So even if they kill 1 scum a day starting day 2, without getting the cult leader. By day 6 cult still wins because they control a larger portion of the vote. Worst case scenario they come to a tie situation. in which case there is only a 25% chance the cult leader would be hit on day 6 by RNG.



What i comes down to ultimately is that this save really favors the lone scum.

[COLOR="#EE82EE"]There is actually only an 11.11% chance of a random lynch catching the Cult Leader D1. Leaving an 88.89% chance of cult leader of surviving day 1.

There is a 12.5% chance of cult leader being lynched day 2. 87.5% chance of not being lynched.

There is a 14.28% chance of cult leader being lynched day 3. 85.71% chance of surviving.

There is a 16.66% chance of cult leader being lynched day 4. 83.33% chance of surviving.

There is a 20% chance of cult leader being lynched day 5. 80% chance of surviving.

There is a 25% chance of cult leader being lynched day 6. 75% chance surviving. [/COLOR]


[COLOR="#00FF00"]DAY 1:[/COLOR]

9 players
51% of vote = 7
Or plurality
[COLOR="#EE82EE"]Cultist has ONE VOTE. [/COLOR]

[COLOR="#00FF00"]DAY 2[/COLOR]

8 players (2 cult)
51% of the vote = 5 votes
or pluarlity
[COLOR="#EE82EE"]Cultist has TWO VOTES[/COLOR]

[COLOR="#00FF00"]DAY 3[/COLOR]

7 players (3 cult)
51% of the vote =4
or plurality
[COLOR="#EE82EE"]Cultist controls 3 VOTES[/COLOR]

[COLOR="#00FF00"]DAY 4[/COLOR]

6players (4 cult)
51% of the vote = 4
plurality does not apply
[COLOR="#EE82EE"]CULTIST CONTROL 4 VOTES[/COLOR]

[COLOR="#00FF00"]
DAY 5[/COLOR]

5 players (5 cult)
[COLOR="#EE82EE"]Game over.
[/COLOR]

[COLOR="#00FFFF"]Concern: Game would be completely over by day 5 if a single cultist was never killed. Given %'s earlier, and everyone just being a citizen, it would be almost impossible for town to win.
[/COLOR]

[COLOR="#FFFF00"]Solution: Add 1 mason. Cannot be converted. Kills cultists at night.[/COLOR]

There is actually only an 11.11% chance of a random lynch catching the Cult Leader D1. Leaving an 88.89% chance of cult leader of surviving day 1.

There is a 12.5% chance of cult leader being lynched day 2. 87.5% chance of not being lynched.

There is a 14.28% chance of cult leader being lynched day 3. 85.71% chance of surviving.

There is a 16.66% chance of cult leader being lynched day 4. 83.33% chance of surviving.

There is a 20% chance of cult leader being lynched day 5. 80% chance of surviving.

There is a 25% chance of cult leader being lynched day 6. 75% chance surviving.


DAY 1:

9 players
51% of vote = 7
Or plurality
Cultist has ONE VOTE.

DAY 2

8 players (2 cult)
51% of the vote = 5 votes
or pluarlity
Cultist has TWO VOTES

DAY 3

7 players (3 cult)
51% of the vote =4
or plurality
Cultist controls 3 VOTES

DAY 4

6players (4 cult)
51% of the vote = 4
plurality does not apply
CULTIST CONTROL 4 VOTES


DAY 5

5 players (5 cult)
Game over.


Concern: Game would be completely over by day 5 if a single cultist was never killed. Given %'s earlier, and everyone just being a citizen, it would be almost impossible for town to win.


Solution: Add 1 mason. Cannot be converted. Kills cultists at night.

[COLOR="#00FF00"]Does the cult leader have unlimited conversions?

Does town ONLY need to lynch the cult leader, or do they have to kill the converts too? [/COLOR]

Does the cult leader have unlimited conversions?

Does town ONLY need to lynch the cult leader, or do they have to kill the converts too?