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    Re: Advanced Mafia Calculus e1

    Certainly, it depends on your measurement system and your priorities. The difference in E(profit) between 9800 and 250 is only 10. God knows how many bets you'd have to make before you notice the...
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    Re: Advanced Mafia Calculus e1

    If my understanding is correct, that'd mean that when B<9800 the equation radically simplified because the 10,000's are replaceed with "200+B" in the original equation I posted:

    E(profit)=0.25*(...
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    Re: Advanced Mafia Calculus e1

    So, after all the bets are made, if someone's bet is larger than the sum of the other bets, their bet gets reduced to the sum of the other bets?

    Am I right in thinking that the loser's pot is...
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    Re: Advanced Mafia Calculus e1

    Now that I think about it, it makes sense that betting between 1 and 2 thousand is the best. It's high enough to drown out your opponent's gains if the 10,000 loses, while still being a very small...
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    Re: Advanced Mafia Calculus e1

    Also that's one freaky ass graph. I kinda like it.
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    Re: Advanced Mafia Calculus e1

    I'm confused about what the permitted range of betting is. Your first post says it's between 1 and 11100, this post suggests it's between 1 and 10200. Both of these ranges include 1225.

    Also,...
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    Re: Challenge: Makes These Roles Work

    If you randomized the number of publishers that are town / mafia you could create much more scenarios. You'd have to give handicaps / bonuses to mafia teams depending on how many publishers they...
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    Re: Advanced Mafia Calculus e1

    One can demonstrate that the average profit can be written as a function of the player's bet, like so:

    E(profit)=0.25*( (10,000B)/(B+200) + (200B)/(B+10,100) - B )

    Then, one can differentiate...
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    Re: Advanced Mafia Calculus e1

    Yeah, I'm pretty sure I haven't made any mistakes and this does rest on solving a quartic.

    The quartic in question doesn't seem to have any nice ways of being simplified. You'd just have to plug...
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    Re: Advanced Mafia Calculus e1

    Fuck this equation is actually really long.

    Was not expecting it to get this big. You got me T_T
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    Re: Random FM thoughts

    I used to have serious doubts about the efficacy of RVS in scumhunting when I played.

    One game I RVS'd my only scummate in <10 posts (yolo) and, later on, people who used RVS became reluctant to...
  12. Re: Petition to list Iced Monopoly as ex staff member

    FUCK you have no idea how many marshmallows I just swallowed. I opened my mouth far too wide and ended up swallowing a shittonne of those bad boys all at once. I can still feel it all slowly sinking...
  13. Re: Petition to list Iced Monopoly as ex staff member

    Like falling into a 2016 wormhole ;(
  14. Thread: Gender Reveal

    by yzb25
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    Re: Gender Reveal

    Every sperm is sacred, every sperm is great <3
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    One day, someone is going to coincidentally crumb a random PR without realizing, then get mislynched way later when someone clocks it on a reread.

    I eagerly await that day.
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    Re: S-FM 435 The Wild Wild West Signups!

    /unsign

    /reserve

    Soz, a spontaneous holiday may or may not get booked for the 5th. Depends on the whims of my family lol. I may signup again if plans fall through or game doesn't start for ages
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    In the past I've done that for multiple town roles as scum to give myself options for later lol. People will be like "omg he's been crumbing it since day 1 so it must be legit" XD
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    Re: S-FM 435 The Wild Wild West Signups!

    /sign
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    Most of the time you consider all these possibilities but in the end the explanations are really silly and underwhelming like "oh alpha was afk so no night kill" or smth. Often scum wins and it feels...
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    Hahah aww thanks man you made the game really fun for me as well :D
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    I've never seen this level of coordination in a game before. I feel so impressed and inspired all at once XD
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    Lol god bless his soul
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    I think this game is probably the strongest argument against occam's razor I've ever seen.

    What if the person Huey visited was a TPR? Then, if they confirmed they visited someone else and they...
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    feels like episode 25 of deathnote just played out in real life XD T_T
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    Holy crap scum totally took us for a ride XDDDD

    QQ, the game was a lot of fun for me as well.
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    silence we'll lynch you when you are worthy.
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    No in his version of events Naz can die within 48 hours. Targets who don't visit are considered to have visited themselves. So it wouldn't clear you by any means.
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    Noctiz did write some fat post about MM. I'll concede that that aspect of your claim has some measure of plausibility.
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    I dunno man, it looks terribly convenient that the claim of MMing voss gives you an explanation if aamirus dies, and the claim of SKing Naz gives you an explanation for if Naz dies. Distorted just...
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    People are also operating with the self awareness that there is an MM looking for bait, so they might not be so easily tricked. Case in point is the fact that only the vigi targetted him. But this...
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    My guess is that they'll just say they sk'd noct tbh...
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    oop Huey The Long
  33. Replies
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    Huey_the_long

    I think I'll take my chances on the god-tier shaman tbh.
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    holy crap this shaman is good lol... and noctiz didn't leave this kill in a lw
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    hmm, so in your universe there must be another shaman, unless they tried to hit Damus twice in a row.
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    If town lynches early, will the hours lost automatically be added onto the virus time?
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    Also, you say you mass murdered MM, yes? MM was killed that night, so you should have made the alpha wolf sick n2. But Damus was still killed n2.
  38. Replies
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    I'm not a fan of this vote-shaming Naz. I find it very un PC.
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    dafuq, obviously he's going to vote Huey. If he says he believes distorted, he has to vote Huey to corroborate his claim.
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    I have also heard distorted likes fancy plays. I never heard distorted likes bad plays, however.
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    I do not want an early hammer. I do not know whether hammering early and then starting night early results in infected victims lasting more days.



    Ik some of you lurker scrubs like to pop in...
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    So, he heard the claim, and 20 minutes later, came up with this grand plan to claim a non-town role which relies on a scumread town's investigation result? Without any input or feedback from his...
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    surely you want to convince us zerg is scum, mr virus. If it wasn't for zerg's claim about aamirus, blinkstorted would have no incentive to make the virus claim, and this whole avalanche of events...
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    my pet theory is that, given how early he claimed, if he's scum then he probably planned to make that claim with his scum buddies.

    However if he was coached then I don't think he would have done...
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    Trying to look towny, are we?

    posting vote count is a classic scum tactic.
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    What do you make of blinkstorted, Huey, and zerg? I take it you don't believe Aamirus has been poisoned.
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    you been reading?
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    yeah I agree Naz this rng mechanic is so F. Is there some way we can just get Magoroth to move it forward if nothing else is happening?
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    vossy

    We shall mislynch voss in all his incarnations!
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    Re: S-FM 434 Spirits IIb

    who tf is 'vossy'?!
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