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MattZed
February 15th, 2017, 09:51 PM
Conspiracy
Day One

http://img3.rnkr-static.com/list_img_v2/19718/1959718/C480/19-conspiracy-theories-that-turned-out-to-be-true-u1.jpg

Setup (http://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showthread.php/39477-Conspiracy-The-Game)

Players:
1. SuperJack
2. Sino
3. Mesk514
4. Stealthbomber16
5. Unknown1234
6. Lysergic


01:11:00:00

(extra time for starting suddenly)

Unknown1234
February 15th, 2017, 10:03 PM
Oh god. ''Tis happened so suddeny.

Unknown1234
February 15th, 2017, 10:03 PM
Wow that Grammar though.

I don't even know what's going on lol.

Unknown1234
February 15th, 2017, 10:05 PM
MattZed pls link setup?

Mesk514
February 15th, 2017, 10:18 PM
I'm innocent! I swear

MattZed
February 15th, 2017, 10:22 PM
MattZed pls link setup?

A link has been provided.

Lysergic
February 15th, 2017, 11:08 PM
Wow, didn't expect that to happen so fast.

Lysergic
February 15th, 2017, 11:12 PM
Mechanics:
Before the start of the game, I will randomly pick a number 1-6
If the number is 6, we will play setup B. Otherwise, setup A.

It's far more likely there is a conspiracy. So I guess you fuckers better start convincing me then. Why should I think that there isn't one?

Mesk514
February 16th, 2017, 02:11 AM
well, im not it... sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo thats one off your list.

Mesk514
February 16th, 2017, 02:14 AM
wait a second.... im legit actually the innocent....so either this is going to be a fuck around with mesk game or we're legit all innocent. awkward.

SuperJack
February 16th, 2017, 02:24 AM
Mesk541

Mesk514
February 16th, 2017, 02:27 AM
SpooderJack

Mesk514
February 16th, 2017, 02:27 AM
as the most trust worthy towns person here, i think i deserve to be the one that has to be convinced

Lysergic
February 16th, 2017, 02:44 AM
wait a second.... im legit actually the innocent....so either this is going to be a fuck around with mesk game or we're legit all innocent. awkward.

All innocent seems pretty unlikely to me. And given that I'm the innocent, I'm thinking that your post is exactly what the illuminati would say. :\

Sino
February 16th, 2017, 05:22 AM
Wow, this started quickly, if only FM games could fill that fast.


All innocent seems pretty unlikely to me. And given that I'm the innocent, I'm thinking that your post is exactly what the illuminati would say. :\

I wouldn't use math to try to solve this game, one specific person being the only innocent has also only 1/7 chance of happening, exactly the same odds as everyone being innocent.

That being said, i know i'm innocent, are you actually trying to convince me you're a conspirator ?

Unknown1234
February 16th, 2017, 06:32 AM
Dino's post makes me think it's illuminati.

Dino

Unknown1234
February 16th, 2017, 06:39 AM
:sheep:

Sino
February 16th, 2017, 06:41 AM
Dino's post makes me think it's illuminati.

Dino

You're the purple one here, not me

Unknown1234
February 16th, 2017, 06:42 AM
If that was an attempt to convince me, you failed.

Sino
February 16th, 2017, 06:44 AM
Why do assume i'm trying to convince you ? I'm trying to figure this game out.

Sino
February 16th, 2017, 06:47 AM
Why do you*

Unknown1234
February 16th, 2017, 06:48 AM
Why do assume i'm trying to convince you ? I'm trying to figure this game out.

But that's why I don't believe you. If you actually were an innocent as well, then you wouldn't need to do any "solving" other than trying to figure out which game we are in. I don't get how your observation "solves" the game either.

Sino
February 16th, 2017, 06:52 AM
But that's why I don't believe you. If you actually were an innocent as well, then you wouldn't need to do any "solving" other than trying to figure out which game we are in. I don't get how your observation "solves" the game either.

My observation doesn't, no "observation" can solve this game anyways, again, why are you assuming i was trying to "solve the game" with that ?

Unknown1234
February 16th, 2017, 06:54 AM
My observation doesn't, no "observation" can solve this game anyways, again, why are you assuming i was trying to "solve the game" with that ?

You seem more open to the possibility of all Innocents than to a Conspiracy.

SuperJack
February 16th, 2017, 06:56 AM
Urh

Sino
February 16th, 2017, 06:57 AM
You seem more open to the possibility of all Innocents than to a Conspiracy.

The only thing i was saying was : don't use math to try to solve the game.

I'm more open to the possibility of a conspiracy after seeing your behavior.

Stealthbomber16
February 16th, 2017, 07:00 AM
wait a second.... im legit actually the innocent....so either this is going to be a fuck around with mesk game or we're legit all innocent. awkward.

I am now convinced that it is setup B. That said, I will still be saying that there is a conspiracy because fuck you all.

Stealthbomber16
February 16th, 2017, 07:01 AM
watermeloann

Arsonist

Unknown1234
February 16th, 2017, 07:01 AM
The only thing i was saying was : don't use math to try to solve the game.

I'm more open to the possibility of a conspiracy after seeing your behavior.

Still ain't helpin u.

I'll be off now.

Sino
February 16th, 2017, 07:02 AM
Still ain't helpin u.

I'll be off now.

You seem so desperate to look like an Innocent, Unknown.

Stealthbomber16
February 16th, 2017, 07:02 AM
Still ain't helpin u.

I'll be off now.
Fucking conspirator.

Sino
February 16th, 2017, 07:04 AM
Fucking conspirator.

As if you were any different.

Stealthbomber16
February 16th, 2017, 07:06 AM
As if you were any different.

My role card is Green.

Sino
February 16th, 2017, 07:08 AM
My role card is Green.

Great, mine's purple

Stealthbomber16
February 16th, 2017, 07:09 AM
Great, mine's purple

[insult goes here]

Sino
February 16th, 2017, 07:11 AM
[insult goes here]

Already resorting to insults ? So early in the game ?

Stealthbomber16
February 16th, 2017, 07:13 AM
Already resorting to insults ? So early in the game ?

Yes you [insult goes here]

Sino
February 16th, 2017, 07:23 AM
Yes you [insult goes here]

Save them for the late game, you consipator.

Sino
February 16th, 2017, 07:23 AM
conspirator*

Stealthbomber16
February 16th, 2017, 08:49 AM
I read that as constipator.

Unknown1234
February 16th, 2017, 09:10 AM
You seem so desperate to look like an Innocent, Unknown.

You act like I'm supposed to care lol. My goal isn't to convince you I'm Town if I'm fairly confident in you being a conspirator.

Unknown1234
February 16th, 2017, 09:13 AM
Like honestly, I don't think this could be any more obvious given your personality changes. I mean come on Dino, jokes?

Sino
February 16th, 2017, 09:21 AM
You act like I'm supposed to care lol. My goal isn't to convince you I'm Town if I'm fairly confident in you being a conspirator.

Such an original post :')

Oh, wait,


Why do assume i'm trying to convince you ? I'm trying to figure this game out.

If you really want to look town, please come up with better answers.


Like honestly, I don't think this could be any more obvious given your personality changes. I mean come on Dino, jokes?

What's that even supposed to mean ?

SuperJack
February 16th, 2017, 09:49 AM
I'm just letting you all talk whilst i figure it out.

Unknown1234
February 16th, 2017, 09:54 AM
Such an original post :')

Oh, wait,



If you really want to look town, please come up with better answers.



What's that even supposed to mean ?

This is what I mean. You are trying to look Town by pointing out things that would never be commented on in different games (trying to make it look like I'm copying your post).

You are playing completely different than you normally would, and I'm assuming it's because your goal is to convince me you're Town by "attempting" to point out flaws. You're doing a shit job btw.

Sino
February 16th, 2017, 10:13 AM
This is what I mean. You are trying to look Town by pointing out things that would never be commented on in different games (trying to make it look like I'm copying your post).

You are playing completely different than you normally would, and I'm assuming it's because your goal is to convince me you're Town by "attempting" to point out flaws. You're doing a shit job btw.

Lol, i always comment on things i notice

Mesk514
February 16th, 2017, 12:48 PM
Alright.I'm innocent and I don't believe lysergic. So I'm voting there's a conspiracy

Unknown1234
February 16th, 2017, 01:46 PM
Alright.I'm innocent and I don't believe lysergic. So I'm voting there's a conspiracy

Given that I heavily suspect Sino, this only reinforces it by being too forced.

Unknown1234
February 16th, 2017, 01:46 PM
Lol, i always comment on things i notice

You aren't helping yourself.

Unknown1234
February 16th, 2017, 01:47 PM
"Omg Unknowns post looks similar to mine so I'll just call him out for stealing it"

This is nowhere near normal Sino play.

Mesk514
February 16th, 2017, 02:45 PM
how many innos can there be if we are in setup A? 1 or 2? cause if you're saying sino is being too forced, then you're saying im basically evil tooo....which is impossible cause it's me

Sino
February 16th, 2017, 03:12 PM
"Omg Unknowns post looks similar to mine so I'll just call him out for stealing it"

This is nowhere near normal Sino play.

Yet this is exactly what happened at the beginning of Fringe, not what i said but all this argument.


how many innos can there be if we are in setup A? 1 or 2? cause if you're saying sino is being too forced, then you're saying im basically evil tooo....which is impossible cause it's me

Either there's only one (setup A), or we're all innos (setup B) which seems very unlikely at this point.

Mesk514
February 16th, 2017, 03:15 PM
OKAY LISTEN, IT'S TRUST MESK TIME

IF YOURE ACTUALLY INNO THEN THERES NO CONSPIRACY CAUSE OBVIOUSLY IM INNOCENT

Stealthbomber16
February 16th, 2017, 03:46 PM
OKAY LISTEN, IT'S TRUST MESK TIME

IF YOURE ACTUALLY INNO THEN THERES NO CONSPIRACY CAUSE OBVIOUSLY IM INNOCENT

Aaand I no longer trust Mesk.

Unknown1234
February 16th, 2017, 04:41 PM
Dino is playing like abominable trash. Too trashy to be town. Not buying it.

Mesk514
February 16th, 2017, 05:46 PM
Aaand I no longer trust Mesk.


SCREW YOU, I AM MESK AND I AM THE BEST. I AM ALSO THE MOST INNOCENT PERSON OF ALL OF SC2MAFIA. I AM NOT A CUNT OR A BITCH AND IM SUPER SUPER NICE. BELIEVE ME

Sino
February 16th, 2017, 06:08 PM
Dino is playing like abominable trash. Too trashy to be town. Not buying it.

Just shut up, insulting my play won't get you anywhere


SCREW YOU, I AM MESK AND I AM THE BEST. I AM ALSO THE MOST INNOCENT PERSON OF ALL OF SC2MAFIA. I AM NOT A CUNT OR A BITCH AND IM SUPER SUPER NICE. BELIEVE ME

Yeah, yeah, sure...

Lysergic
February 16th, 2017, 06:33 PM
Wow, this started quickly, if only FM games could fill that fast.



I wouldn't use math to try to solve this game, one specific person being the only innocent has also only 1/7 chance of happening, exactly the same odds as everyone being innocent.

That being said, i know i'm innocent, are you actually trying to convince me you're a conspirator ?

Uh... wut?

It seems pretty obvious that conspiracy is more likely than non. And since I know I'm innocent that means you (along with everyone else) are likely in on it.


SCREW YOU, I AM MESK AND I AM THE BEST. I AM ALSO THE MOST INNOCENT PERSON OF ALL OF SC2MAFIA. I AM NOT A CUNT OR A BITCH AND IM SUPER SUPER NICE. BELIEVE ME

Me thinks the lady doth protest too much.

Stealthbomber16
February 16th, 2017, 07:16 PM
Uh... wut?

It seems pretty obvious that conspiracy is more likely than non. And since I know I'm innocent that means you (along with everyone else) are likely in on it.



Me thinks the lady doth protest too much.

Isn't this like your first post or something? You have no real room to call people a conspirator.

I'm actually starting to lean a LITTLE bit toward setup B because the only person acting scummy really is Mesk, but thats just Mesk.

Stealthbomber16
February 16th, 2017, 07:17 PM
I'm just letting you all talk whilst i figure it out.

Scratch that, forgot about this asshole.

Lysergic
February 16th, 2017, 07:30 PM
Isn't this like your first post or something? You have no real room to call people a conspirator.

I'm actually starting to lean a LITTLE bit toward setup B because the only person acting scummy really is Mesk, but thats just Mesk.

Maybe you should go read the first page before you continue to make yourself look silly.

Lysergic
February 16th, 2017, 07:33 PM
Also, you said you're starting to lean towards setup B, but you said in one of your first posts (http://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showthread.php/39479-CONSPIRACY-GAME-THREAD?p=674645#post674645) that you were "convinced" that it was setup B. So... which is it?


Color me unconvinced about you, Stealth.

SuperJack
February 16th, 2017, 07:57 PM
this game is just so fucked up and filled with paronoa that im voting for no conspiricy

Mesk514
February 16th, 2017, 08:49 PM
Lol I'm scummy cause I'm telling the truth. God fkn damn

Lysergic
February 17th, 2017, 04:55 AM
Well I'm not going to be able to post again before the 24 hours is up.


The only person I really feel sketchy about is Stealth, so I'd say at this point that I am convinced that there is a conspiracy (and the rest of you are pretty good liars, I gotta say). My PM will reflect that. Hopefully I'm either right or in the minority.

Stealthbomber16
February 17th, 2017, 07:44 AM
I am now convinced that it is setup B. That said, I will still be saying that there is a conspiracy because fuck you all.

This was before everyone else posted.

MattZed
February 17th, 2017, 12:21 PM
Day chat is over. It is now time for all innocents to submit their final guesses on whether or not there is a conspriacy.

MattZed
February 17th, 2017, 12:29 PM
SuperJack, Sino, Mesk514, Stealthbomber16, Unknown1234, Lysergic

MattZed
February 17th, 2017, 12:59 PM
Game over! Mesk514 has successfully deduced that therexis a conspiracy!

Unknown1234
February 17th, 2017, 01:09 PM
I knew it.

Cryptonic
February 17th, 2017, 02:00 PM
Ooo I was suspecting Mesk was a conspirator.
I was mistaken D:

Mesk514
February 17th, 2017, 02:05 PM
lol i knew it.. you can thank lysergic for outting it

Voss
February 17th, 2017, 02:21 PM
the game was a great read.


lol i knew it.. you can thank lysergic for outting it

lol i thought lysergic was the innocent

Sino
February 17th, 2017, 02:22 PM
OKAY LISTEN, IT'S TRUST MESK TIME

IF YOURE ACTUALLY INNO THEN THERES NO CONSPIRACY CAUSE OBVIOUSLY IM INNOCENT

This post got my hopes up.

Cryptonic
February 17th, 2017, 02:23 PM
Lysergic really stood out to me as a Conspirator lol Funny how two different outside views see it differently :)

Mesk514
February 17th, 2017, 02:23 PM
theres something wrong when no one believes me that im the innocent... i even called it that it was me vs. everyone


I don't really think so, but lysergic had some bad logic so I'm just gonna a say there's a conspiracy.

Mesk514
February 17th, 2017, 02:24 PM
if someone else was inno, they would have given serious thought to the fact that i always claim and im very honest about it :)

Sino
February 17th, 2017, 02:25 PM
the game was a great read.

Unfortunately, there wasn't that much to read :(

Mesk514
February 17th, 2017, 02:26 PM
This post got my hopes up.

yeah but no one trusted me so screw em

Voss
February 17th, 2017, 02:29 PM
Unfortunately, there wasn't that much to read :(

i still enjoyed it

Cryptonic
February 17th, 2017, 02:29 PM
All innocent seems pretty unlikely to me. And given that I'm the innocent, I'm thinking that your post is exactly what the illuminati would say. :\

It was this. IDK why, it seemed too forced to me. Although, I was being paranoid thinking there was a conspiracy lmao so I was looking for any excuse to see one

Cryptonic
February 17th, 2017, 02:31 PM
I was just wondering, why is there 5x the chance of it being a conspiracy. Seems like you could just choose that is a conspiracy as an innocent and win 5 times out of 6.

Sino
February 17th, 2017, 02:57 PM
I was just wondering, why is there 5x the chance of it being a conspiracy. Seems like you could just choose that is a conspiracy as an innocent and win 5 times out of 6.

Playing this purely by the odds is a dumm thing to do

Unknown1234
February 17th, 2017, 03:00 PM
Odds were that the game was Conspirators anyways, so I'm not too surprised that she voted Conspiracy anyways.

Was fun, but Mesk if I was the innocent I still wouldn't have believed you with a possibility of
5/6 people being evil.

Unknown1234
February 17th, 2017, 03:01 PM
I had fun arguing with Dino though :)

Sino
February 17th, 2017, 03:07 PM
I had fun arguing with Dino though :)

It really felt exactly the same as in Fringe.

Cryptonic
February 17th, 2017, 03:12 PM
Playing this purely by the odds is a dumm thing to do

nat if you wanna win.

But if it was 50% chance each, then you can't play the system and have to play the game.

Unknown1234
February 17th, 2017, 03:20 PM
You 100% lose if you go with no conspiracy (as lone Innocent)

You don't 100% lose if you go with yes Conspiracy (still other votes, maybe less chance but still a chance).

Given nobody was planning to vote no conspiracy, her vote wouldn't have "mattered" if she was voting no anyways.

Cryptonic
February 17th, 2017, 03:22 PM
I had wanted to play, but didn't have the time :(
although, it didn't seem that laborious, so in hindsight I could have signed.

Sino
February 17th, 2017, 03:26 PM
You 100% lose if you go with no conspiracy (as lone Innocent)

You don't 100% lose if you go with yes Conspiracy (still other votes, maybe less chance but still a chance).

Given nobody was planning to vote no conspiracy, her vote wouldn't have "mattered" if she was voting no anyways.

Now that you mention it, maybe that should change too, there's no reason for the innocents to win together, why isn't it just : when there's no conspiracy, whoever voted for that wins, and who didn't loses ?

Mesk514
February 17th, 2017, 03:40 PM
yaaaaa waluigi's the winnnerrrrrrr

MattZed
February 17th, 2017, 04:06 PM
I was just wondering, why is there 5x the chance of it being a conspiracy. Seems like you could just choose that is a conspiracy as an innocent and win 5 times out of 6.

Oh, you're doing probability wrong.

If YOU are an innocent, you know I either rolled your number, or a 6, and these are equally likely rolls. Thus, when you're making a decision, there's actually only a 50-50 chance of a conspiracy.

The only balance thing I might change is how many "no conspiracy" votes are needed in scenario B, to discourage the "I'll vote conspiracy just to be safe, and hope if there isn't one that everyone else votes there isn't" playstyle.

MattZed
February 17th, 2017, 04:07 PM
Now that you mention it, maybe that should change too, there's no reason for the innocents to win together, why isn't it just : when there's no conspiracy, whoever voted for that wins, and who didn't loses ?

The reason for innocents to win together is so they're motivated to try to convince each other to vote "no conspiracy," which motivates daychat and makes it so you have to read why is this person trying to get me to vote no conspiracy.

BananaCucho
February 17th, 2017, 04:09 PM
Yes, more non mafia forum games like this pls! They are good for the site

Cryptonic
February 17th, 2017, 04:50 PM
"Before the start of the game, I will randomly pick a number 1-6
If the number is 6, we will play setup B. Otherwise, setup A."

That means 1/6 is Setup B, 5/6 is Setup A. Not 50/50.

RLVG
February 17th, 2017, 04:56 PM
"Before the start of the game, I will randomly pick a number 1-6
If the number is 6, we will play setup B. Otherwise, setup A."

That means 1/6 is Setup B, 5/6 is Setup A. Not 50/50.

Just make it 1/2, solved!

Cryptonic
February 17th, 2017, 05:32 PM
Yes, more non mafia forum games like this pls! They are good for the site

i agree

Voss
February 17th, 2017, 05:50 PM
dusted out my old stats skills and i got 1/6 chance that you're innocent and in setup B. Making it 1/2 would solve the problem.

my math could be wrong though.

thedougler
February 17th, 2017, 06:45 PM
I had wanted to play, but didn't have the time :(
although, it didn't seem that laborious, so in hindsight I could have signed.

Lol same. If I had known it would start and end this fast I would have signed in a minute. The main problem with getting myself to play these forum games is the massive time commitment between signing up and then the start of the game itself.

MattZed
February 18th, 2017, 02:41 PM
Idk if I'm being trolled or if you guys are rusty at probability, but the current setup makes it so that, IF YOU ARE INNOCENT, there's a 50-50 chance of conspiracy.

Put it this way:
4/6 of the time, there's a conspiracy and you're in on it.
1/6 of the time, there's a conspiracy against you
1/6 of the time, there is no conspiracy.

Thus, if you're not in on a conspiracy, the chance of there being a conspiracy on you is 50%.

MattZed
February 18th, 2017, 02:42 PM
Btw round 2 will likely start Sunday evening!

thedougler
February 18th, 2017, 03:16 PM
Is it closed to new players now, or can I join in for round 2?

MattZed
February 18th, 2017, 04:28 PM
Is it closed to new players now, or can I join in for round 2?

Open to all!

thedougler
February 18th, 2017, 05:03 PM
SIGN SIGN SIGN

Voss
February 18th, 2017, 06:17 PM
/sign

-prefer innocent

Mesk514
February 18th, 2017, 11:36 PM
/in

Unknown1234
February 19th, 2017, 07:30 AM
/in for round 2.

Stealthbomber16
February 19th, 2017, 08:56 AM
/cos

MattZed
February 19th, 2017, 09:41 AM
Cryptonic, Sino, Lysergic, wanna go again?

Cryptonic
February 19th, 2017, 10:39 AM
/sure

Unknown1234
February 19th, 2017, 01:37 PM
yzb25.

SuperJack
February 19th, 2017, 01:57 PM
yzb25 .

yzb25
February 19th, 2017, 04:00 PM
yzb25.


yzb25 .

Damn fans.

Gyrlander
February 19th, 2017, 04:22 PM
I'm pretty sure this game was full many hours ago, but I will /sign just for the sake of doing it.

SuperJack
February 19th, 2017, 04:34 PM
Sign

Sino
February 19th, 2017, 04:35 PM
Cryptonic, Sino, Lysergic, wanna go again?

Yup, i'm in !

thedougler
February 19th, 2017, 08:55 PM
So are we just waiting for Lysergic to start this?

Lysergic
February 20th, 2017, 01:42 AM
Cryptonic, Sino, Lysergic, wanna go again?

Gotta sit this round out - busy week for work.