An Experiment

[Dark.Revenant]

Do it.

[TheJackofSpades]

That's... eerie.

[FalseTruth]

LOL WOW!

[NorthStar]

I clicked randomly with my eyes closed and ended up on the last one lol.

[LOBSTERS]

Voters are all skyping

[S.A.S.Cnl.Alpha]

Personally, I prefer higher-mid as opposed to lower-mid, you can guess which I voted for.

[Yayap]

i'm guessing that the experiment is to find out that if people vote ramdomly to kill someone, there is any position that gets chosen more than others.

if that is the case, then i usually pick someone 3/4 ways down to kill and 1/4 to investigate to make it seem random. 1st dies or gets saved by docs so i avoid him.. same with last.

btw: I logged in on a display ipad at a local bestbuy... bridge is closed to my hometown till later, so i'm kinda stranded with no internet till later. hope i don't miss the mafia game start, i already see the forums being moved around. be on later.

[philie]

I fear the point of this poll was to give us finger....

[Sherlock Holmes]

creepy

[McJesus]

Voters are all skyping


this

[monster]

This is a bit too random for my taste, where is the proof? I will vote inno when they lynch that guy.
I vote the 4th cos i like the number 4.

[Zane]

i vote 3 cause i like :3

[Spy]

4 is the unluckiest number in China. It means death.

[S.A.S.Cnl.Alpha]

lol phillie

[FalseTruth]

I think the Law of Large Numbers will prove itself when the sample size gets to be >50. It's still surprising that the first 6 votes were all the same number though.

That's a (1/5)^6 chance.

Or 0.000064 probability assuming all events are equally likely.

btw fuck math.

[Auckmid]

I think the Law of Large Numbers will prove itself when the sample size gets to be >50. It's still surprising that the first 6 votes were all the same number though.

That's a (1/5)^6 chance.

Or 0.000064 probability assuming all events are equally likely.

btw fuck math.

You made a mistake. You wrote down the probability of the first 6 people choosing 4. The probability of the first 6 people picking the same number is acutally higher at
(1/5)^5= 0.032%

MATH, FTW

[FalseTruth]

yea, ur right. lol i fail

[Dark.Revenant]

A clear trend can be seen, which proves that position alone is a very large influence in picking choices. The 4th, then 3rd, then 2nd/1st/3rd choices seem to be the popularity trend, with 4 being a huge lead.

This is a contrast with the Mafia trend, which is the 1st player usually dying first. Maybe because he's associated with the "host" spot in their minds (not actually true, but subconsciously so). Maybe it's because he is red, a very sharp and energetic color.

[CaressMeTenderly]

shitinmydick

[Spy]

Sharp and energetic color?

Are you kidding me?

Red has always signalled danger. Blood, stop signs, warnings...

[Spy]

Ok, I guess it is kind of sharp and energetic.

[TheJackofSpades]

4 is the unluckiest number in China. It means death.


That's probably the most interesting thing you've ever posted, Spy.

Anyway, if you'd like my reasoning on why I chose option 4, 1 3 and 5 are the obvious benchmark choices in terms of picks that can be reliably guessed by another party. One due it being the first option. 5 because it is the last option. 3 because it is the middle option.

2 and 4 are both neutral, and so I just randomed between the two of them.

[FalseTruth]

A clear trend can be seen, which proves that position alone is a very large influence in picking choices. The 4th, then 3rd, then 2nd/1st/3rd choices seem to be the popularity trend, with 4 being a huge lead.

This is a contrast with the Mafia trend, which is the 1st player usually dying first. Maybe because he's associated with the "host" spot in their minds (not actually true, but subconsciously so). Maybe it's because he is red, a very sharp and energetic color.

Red is also associated with radical emotions such as love and hate.

Also, people may be more apathetic in mafia games when making their first choice, therefore they may not think much of their selection. I tend to see red n1 deaths much more often in pub games than channel games.

[oops_ur_dead]

You guys are all idiots.

The human mind cannot naturally comprehend numbers larger than 6. The number of players in mafia overloads and confuses our brain, since it cannot naturally deal with the number. Thus, we pick the first player because such a sequential order is a more comfortable way for us to deal with larger numbers.

[WaWMoose]

4 is my jersey number in soccer :D so obvious choice here lol but if u had 15, id choose 13 fosho

[FalseTruth]

You guys are all idiots.

The human mind cannot naturally comprehend numbers larger than 6. The number of players in mafia overloads and confuses our brain, since it cannot naturally deal with the number. Thus, we pick the first player because such a sequential order is a more comfortable way for us to deal with larger numbers.

It's not very nice to call people idiots, when you, yourself, are the biggest idiot of all. However, I do happen to agree with your statement to some extent.

[Elixir]

Guess I'm part of the majority, proves im not a hipster.

[Dark.Revenant]

I picked the 4th option before everyone else decided to pick it.

I'm such a hipster yo.

[S.A.S.Cnl.Alpha]

I did cool things before they were cool.
Now I don't like those cool things because they used to not be cool.
And then when not liking it because it's cool becomes cool, I'll then once-again like it.

[Spy]

4 is the unluckiest number in China. It means death.


That's probably the most interesting thing you've ever posted, Spy.

Anyway, if you'd like my reasoning on why I chose option 4, 1 3 and 5 are the obvious benchmark choices in terms of picks that can be reliably guessed by another party. One due it being the first option. 5 because it is the last option. 3 because it is the middle option.

2 and 4 are both neutral, and so I just randomed between the two of them.
You did mean most boring...

[Spy]

Having lived in Britain for such a long time, I still don't pick up sarcasm.

[philie]

i reason in a very different way in mafia. I tend to avoid bright colors/extreme positioning/stupid names or anything out of order when im killing, and the other way around when im defending. Whenever i go for a kill, i make myself re-think my decision and do as opposite thing to it as possible. That is when i have no clues at all.
And @ oops, most people can estimate accurately up to 6 moving objects without having time to count them, yet it can be trained and brought up to higher numbers. But i dont see how such a complex list as in mafia can be explained with this. Its also known that if you make a color test on people (of which color is more pleasant atm) the results are gonna be varying over a few days. im pretty sure the same thing applies to random letter combinations.

To me it was weird the first days i played mafia, that red was attacked so much. Even without the experience in mafia, i didnt wanna kill red more than the others

[Raiden]

I tested something similar in a game of cards, where each people is given the same amount of cards. Then you discard all the pairs and the single aces. Finally, players proceed to draw a card from the next person in a clockwise order and continue discarding pairs. The one who remains with the ace of spades still in their hand loses, while the others win... and trust me, extreme positions are NEVER drawn, so the one who currently holds the cursed card places it in other spots.

And that's why i voted 5.

[TheJackofSpades]

4 is the unluckiest number in China. It means death.


That's probably the most interesting thing you've ever posted, Spy.

Anyway, if you'd like my reasoning on why I chose option 4, 1 3 and 5 are the obvious benchmark choices in terms of picks that can be reliably guessed by another party. One due it being the first option. 5 because it is the last option. 3 because it is the middle option.

2 and 4 are both neutral, and so I just randomed between the two of them.
You did mean most boring...

No, it was genuine.

[Deolrin]

I voted the middle one, because it's so middle and perfect. :3

[Graham]

Picking 4, thinking I'm so unique and random.. shit

I need to go back to the drawing board lol

[oops_ur_dead]

You guys are all idiots.

The human mind cannot naturally comprehend numbers larger than 6. The number of players in mafia overloads and confuses our brain, since it cannot naturally deal with the number. Thus, we pick the first player because such a sequential order is a more comfortable way for us to deal with larger numbers.

It's not very nice to call people idiots, when you, yourself, are the biggest idiot of all. However, I do happen to agree with your statement to some extent.

FalseTruth, you have received your first warning for rudeness towards other members.

Back to the topic at hand, here's my suggestion to solve this problem:
At the start of the game, the list of players is shuffled for each individual player, so the order of the players is different for each player. Then, even if every player picks red, they will end up targeting different people.

[Ruffles]

i picked 6,

you jelly bros?

[FalseTruth]

You guys are all idiots.

FalseTruth, you have received your first warning for rudeness towards other members.

You call everyone in this topic an idiot, yet you give me a warning for calling you an idiot. Notice the hypocrisy? I think you deserve a warning "for rudeness towards other members".

[Graham]

You guys are all idiots.

FalseTruth, you have received your first warning for rudeness towards other members.

You call everyone in this topic an idiot, yet you give me a warning for calling you an idiot. Notice the hypocrisy? I think you deserve a warning "for rudeness towards other members".


Chill, bro, he's just on a vendetta against people in positions of authority lol

[Landstander]

all game names should be randomized. and heres a neat pic.

[oops_ur_dead]

You guys are all idiots.

FalseTruth, you have received your first warning for rudeness towards other members.

You call everyone in this topic an idiot, yet you give me a warning for calling you an idiot. Notice the hypocrisy? I think you deserve a warning "for rudeness towards other members".


Chill, bro, he's just on a vendetta against people in positions of authority lol

I am authority.

[AscendedOne]

I am authority.


Extactly why your saving yourself for last. Gotta take down some authority with ya.

[Yayap]

Back to the topic at hand, here's my suggestion to solve this problem:
At the start of the game, the list of players is shuffled for each individual player, so the order of the players is different for each player. Then, even if every player picks red, they will end up targeting different people.


That would mess up the PMs

[oops_ur_dead]

How so?

[AscendedOne]

Back to the topic at hand, here's my suggestion to solve this problem:
At the start of the game, the list of players is shuffled for each individual player, so the order of the players is different for each player. Then, even if every player picks red, they will end up targeting different people.


That would mess up the PMs


Well it could just mix up their postion on the list, so seein a red near bottom a brown in the middle with some black on top.

[AscendedOne]

How so?

Well it might be hard for DR to program it so every player PMs to their red when usin
-pm color

[oops_ur_dead]

Oh, I didn't mean that the colors are mixed up. Only their positions.

[AscendedOne]

Well it could just mix up their postion on the list, so seein a red near bottom a brown in the middle with some black on top.


Guess this would still mess up the number PM system....

[AscendedOne]

Oh, I didn't mean that the colors are mixed up. Only their positions.


Well damn now my post seems redundant.....

[oops_ur_dead]

Well it could just mix up their postion on the list, so seein a red near bottom a brown in the middle with some black on top.


Guess this would still mess up the number PM system....

Not really. It would just use each player's individual player list to deduce which number refers to which player.

[TheJackofSpades]

There's no point in coding something like that just to slightly shift a metagame concept. A new one, just as brutalizingly unfair will arise.

[WaWMoose]

Honestly i think, THINK, that names have more of an effect on people choosing a person than number.
Its why you always see Justin Bieber attacked or lynched early, and why Jesus usually lives very long.
imo.

[Inca_Killa]

No one chooses the first option because its a unspoken tradition of inhouse players to not do so. Only a pubefag would stoop so low!

[TheJackofSpades]

Honestly i think, THINK, that names have more of an effect on people choosing a person than number.
Its why you always see Justin Bieber attacked or lynched early, and why Jesus usually lives very long.
imo.

A lot of people say this, but this is probably on true in pubs. Smart players will protect these players while smart players will avoid attacking these players.

For example, I played a few games with the name "Kill Me First" and made it rather far into the game.